Under-the-Radar Teams That Could Steal 2015 NCAA Tournament Bids

No teams have officially earned bids to the 2015 NCAA tournament yet, though a hefty number are virtual locks to be part of the 68-team field either as their conference's automatic qualifier or through at-large bids.

This is not about those teams, nor is it about the ones from leagues that will only be sending their conference tournament champions into the Big Dance. Instead, this is where we discuss the unplanned visitors, the ones not expected to receive an at-large spot and those unlikely to win their conference's tourney.

But if they could…

These are the teams with the best chances of being bid-stealers, who burst the hopes of many bubble teams that end up losing their spot in the tournament because a tourney lock didn't win their league. Last year, St. Joseph's won the Atlantic 10 and Providence claimed the Big East to earn automatic bids and knock teams like SMU and California out of the field.

Who has a chance to be a bid thief this year? Check out our picks.

NOTE: Records and statistics are current through games of Wednesday, March 4. RPI figures are through games of Tuesday, March 3 and are provided by CBS Sports.

Connecticut

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Record: 17-11, 10-6 in American

RPI: 70

It's hard to think of the defending national champions as an under-the-radar team, but the Huskies have been mostly written off as a tournament contender for some time now. A 7-5 record in nonconference play, including a three-game losing streak in November and December, got them off to a rough start that they've never been able to rebound from.

And while the best players from last year's team—guard Shabazz Napier and forward DeAndre Daniels—are gone, UConn still has several members of the title squad back, as well as coach Kevin Ollie. And with the American Athletic Conference tournament being held in Hartford, the Huskies' part-time home, the champs have an advantage over the rest of the league field.

UConn has two games left in the regular season—Thursday against Memphis and Saturday at Temple—and could finish anywhere from third to sixth in the American. Then it will be time to try to make a run like last year's surprising journey to the title as a No. 7 NCAA tournament seed.

"On this very week last year, UConn was unranked," CBS Sports' Seth Davis tweeted Wednesday. "That is all."

Illinois State

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Record: 19-11, 11-7 in Missouri Valley

RPI: 76

With Northern Iowa and Wichita State a combined 54-6 and both in line for high seeds in the NCAA tournament, the Missouri Valley is guaranteed to be a two-bid league for the third time in four years. But Illinois State has the kind of team that could surprise one or both of those powers and give the MVC three tourney bids for the first time since getting four in 2006.

The Redbirds tied for third place but earned the No. 4 seed in the MVC tournament and will face No. 5 Evansville on Friday in St. Louis. Win that one and Illinois State would face top-seeded Wichita State in the semifinals, and a potential title game matchup with No. 2 Northern Iowa could follow.

Illinois State lost by six at home to Wichita and by one at home to Northern Iowa—two of its eight defeats by six points or fewer. The Redbirds haven't made the NCAA field since 1998.

Oregon State

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Record: 17-13, 8-10 in Pac-12

RPI: 115

The Pac-12 Conference hasn't had its postseason tournament won by the regular-season champion since 2008, when it was still the Pac-10. Since then, two No. 6 seeds have run the table to get into the NCAA tournament and push other potential at-large teams off the bubble.

Oregon State sits in sixth place after losing its regular-season finale to rival Oregon on Wednesday, but that would still be the Beavers' best seed since 2010. They were picked by many to finish dead last in the conference this year after the entire starting lineup from last season's 10th-place team graduated, transferred or turned pro and head coach Craig Robinson was fired in May.

Wayne Tinkle was hired from Montana and had to hold open tryouts just to get enough walk-ons to have a full roster, yet Oregon State has far exceeded expectations. It will take a three-game losing streak and a 1-6 finish into the conference tournament, but earlier this season, the Beavers knocked off regular-season Pac-12 champion Arizona along with UCLA.

Rhode Island

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Record: 20-8, 12-5 in Atlantic 10

RPI: 68

Rhode Island entered the final week of the regular season in a three-way tie for first place in the Atlantic 10, but after Tuesday's 75-59 loss at Dayton, the Rams sit in third place heading into their finale against St. Joseph's on Saturday. Win that game, and they get a bye into the A-10 tournament quarterfinals.

But unlike the other top teams—Davidson, Dayton and VCU—who are either NCAA tournament locks or on the bubble with some wiggle room to work with, Rhode Island has only one option to get their first invite since 1999: win it all.

Coach Dan Hurley has made big strides with the program since taking over in 2012-13, going from eight wins that season to 14 last year. And this year, he's doing it with a pair of sophomores leading the charge in guard E.C. Matthews (16.6 points per game) and forward Hassan Martin (11.8 points, 7.7 rebounds, 63.4 percent shooting).

Rhode Island is 0-3 against the A-10's NCAA tourney teams and overall is 0-5 against top-50 RPI teams, but stranger things have happened in March.

Saint Mary's

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Record: 21-8, 13-5 in West Coast

RPI: 61

With eight NCAA tournament appearances, including three invites as an at-large team since 2005, St. Mary's is regularly considered a contender to get into the field even if it can't manage to knock off West Coast Conference rival Gonzaga for the automatic bid. But this year, that's the only way the Gaels will be dancing, after a larger-than-normal number of bad losses.

Last Saturday's loss to Santa Clara was the final nail in St. Mary's at-large coffin, as the defeat knocked it to third in the conference. The road to a potential bid-stealing run through the WCC tourney begins Saturday against sixth-seeded Portland in Las Vegas.

While the Gaels have underachieved this year, they've shown flashes of a team that can get hot. They led by 17 at home against Gonzaga on Feb. 21, only to lose by 10, and senior forward Brad Waldow has been as good at ever with 19.1 points and 9.0 rebounds per game.

Seton Hall

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Record: 16-13, 6-11 in Big East

RPI: 80

As the calendar turned from 2014 to 2015, Seton Hall's fortunes looked to be heading in the right direction. The Pirates opened conference play with a pair of huge wins, knocking off St. John's and previously unbeaten Villanova in a four-day span. The Pirates were 12-2, on their way to their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2006 and a season that would save coach Kevin Willard's job.

Seton Hall has gone 4-11 since then, with only one victory against a team with a winning record. That's the kind of resume that might even put an NIT bid in doubt.

The Pirates beat St. John's and Villanova without standout freshman Isaiah Whitehead, who missed nine games with a stress fracture, but even as junior guard Sterling Gibbs took over (he had five 20-point games during Whitehead's absence), the problems continued to mount. Gibbs was suspended for two games after punching Villanova's Ryan Arcidiacono during a loose-ball scrum on Feb. 16, and sophomore guard Jaren Sina quit the team on Feb. 11.

Wednesday's 79-66 home loss to Providence showed both what Seton Hall is capable of—leading by eight at halftime—and how it keeps coming up short.

"We're having one or two breakdowns per game and it's different guys each time," Willard told Andrew Garda of NJ.com.

It would be a major shocker if the Pirates could turn it around and win the Big East tournament, but they have shown the ability to beat good teams before.

UNLV

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Record: 16-14, 7-10 in Mountain West

RPI: 96

With one of the best recruiting classes in the country, all of whom have made instant impacts, UNLV was expected to battle with San Diego State and others at the top of the Mountain West. Yet this season has been full of disappointment and underachievement for the Runnin' Rebels, who will miss the NCAA tournament for the second straight year unless they tap into some Vegas magic next week.

The Mountain West tournament is on UNLV's home court, the same place it handed Arizona its first loss in December. But the Rebels only went 5-4 at the Thomas & Mack Center during conference play after Wednesday's 60-58 home loss to San Diego State.

That loss was the sixth straight game the Rebels played without leading scorer Rashad Vaughn, who was leading the team in scoring at 17.8 points per game before suffering a knee injury. He had surgery to repair a torn meniscus, and Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas Review-Journal reported he could be back in time for the Mountain West tournament if his rehab goes well.

The school hasn't indicated if he'll be back next week, but if he is, that could provide just the spark UNLV needs to play to its potential and steal the Mountain West's automatic bid.

Wyoming

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Record: 22-8, 11-6 Mountain West

RPI: 92

For the second year in a row, the health of star forward Larry Nance Jr. has dictated how Wyoming's season ended up going. Last season, a torn ACL knocked him out in mid-February, and the Cowboys lost six of seven after a 17-9 start. 

Nance came back from that injury stronger than ever, but then in early February, the 6'8" senior contracted mononucleosis and missed four games. Wyoming went 2-2 in that span and then dropped his first two games after coming back as Nance struggled to regain his shooting touch.

He had 21 points and 10 rebounds on 9-of-16 shooting in Wednesday's 76-53 win over Utah State, and if he's back to full strength, then Wyoming will be a tough out in next week's Mountain West tournament. Wyoming has a win over conference co-leader Boise State and swept third-place Colorado State.

Follow Brian J. Pedersen on Twitter at @realBJP.