Preseason College Basketball Predictions That Look Foolish Now
Predictions are all well and good, but rarely are they correct. Looking back, some are laughably off base.
Can you believe there was a time when Harvard was considered a Top 25 team? Nebraska was supposed to be a team that could move deep into the NCAA tournament, and the Virginia Cavaliers were merely a nice team no one thought could repeat last year's run through the ACC, not the dominant No. 2 force they’ve been all season.
It being March, the season reaches its long-awaited crescendo. We’re on the cusp of conference tournaments that ultimately segue into the madness fanatics wait for all year.
While these predictions were not consensus across the media outlets (Sports Illustrated, CBSSports.com and Bleacher Report), most were widely held across the entire college hoops landscape.
Before all of that, let’s look at predictions gone horribly wrong this 2014-15 season.
10. Kevin Pangos as WCC Player of the Year
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Preseason Prediction: Kevin Pangos would be WCC’s Player of the Year.
Why It Went Wrong
It didn’t go wrong, per se, but Kevin Pangos is riding shotgun to Kyle Wiltjer this season.
The junior forward surprised the WCC with 16.5 points and 5.7 boards per game. After transferring from Kentucky, the 6’10” forward is tearing it up.
Take Bleacher Report’s Jason King’s take on the Wiltjer’s impact this year:
"All of a sudden, the guy who spent two years operating in the shadows of Anthony Davis, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Nerlens Noel at Kentucky is on the cover of Sports Illustrated. College basketball analysts are hailing Wiltjer as a potential All-American, and, largely because of his impact, Gonzaga fans have suggested that this is the best Zags squad in Mark Few's 16 years.
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Wiltjer wasn’t even on the radar.
Pangos’ numbers are down this year, but that’s because Wiltjer is playing an at All-American level.
Mark Few’s system and culture at Gonzaga have allowed Wiltjer’s game to flourish and catch everyone by surprise.
9. Virginia Disrespected
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Preseason Prediction: The Cavs will finish fourth in the ACC.
Why It Went Wrong
If it wasn’t for Kentucky’s bid for an unbeaten season, Virginia would, without question, be the talk of college basketball.
A tough loss to Duke at home thwarted any possibility of UVA going unbeaten and buried them as a national story.
And coming into this season, few thought UVA could repeat its miraculous run through the ACC in 2013-14, a season that saw it win the regular season and conference tournament.
SI.com’s Martin Rickman wrote, “What will the Cavaliers do for an encore after winning the ACC regular season and tournament titles and winning 30 games? They probably will not win the ACC regular season and tournament titles or win 30 games.”
With 27 wins in the regular season (with two more to go), a couple in the ACC tournament and then one, two or three in the NCAA tournament, Virginia will win the ACC and eclipse 30 wins for a second straight year.
8. Colorado a Top-2 Team in the Pac-12
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Preseason Prediction: Colorado will finish second in the Pac-12.
Why It Went Wrong
The Buffaloes were supposed to be a top-tier team in a relatively weak Pac-12. Nobody thought Arizona could fall, so the mad scurry for No. 2 appeared to go through Colorado.
It did. It totally went through and disintegrated Colorado. The Buffaloes are 10th in the Pac-12 with a record of 12-15 and 5-10 in the league.
Not once since Tad Boyle took over as head coach had Colorado failed to win at least 21 games. This year Boyle’s Buffaloes won’t finish above .500.
Boyle told the Denver Morning Post, “We got a year older from last year but not a year better. That's on me. That's the head coach's responsibility, and I haven't done a very good job. It makes me re-evaluate what we're doing and how we're doing it, what's worked and maybe why things this year haven't worked."
Injuries to some key players kept Colorado from competing at an Arizona-threatening level, but it never recovered.
Colorado is in the midst of its third three-game losing streak of the season—all in conference play. No Rocky Mountain High for this team this season.
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7. Kevin Ollie as AAC Coach of the Year
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Preseason Prediction: UConn’s Kevin Ollie wins AAC Coach of the Year.
Why It Went Wrong
Kevin Ollie could never get his Huskies on a roll. They most games they ever won in a given stretch was three. For every step forward, UConn took steps backward.
It was a heavy favorite to win the AAC after winning the NCAA championship last season. That momentum didn’t carry over.
CBSSports.com’s Matt Norlander wrote back in October:
"Given we think UConn will not only win the league, which it did not do last season, but do it without the Player of the Year in the conference ... yeah, Ollie winning it makes sense. He's a coaching star as it is, and when UConn enters the 2015 NCAA Tournament as a No. 3 or 4 seed, you'll have heard and read plenty about the wonders Ollie's been able to do in less than three years in Storrs. The NBA rumors won't slow, either.
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No matter how good Ollie is, his players need to perform. Ryan Boatright has been excellent playing 35.3 minutes per game and scoring 17.5 points. Rodney Purvis hasn’t had quite the impact people thought early.
As a result, this team has NIT written all over it and could threaten to win that tournament when it gets to Madison Square Garden. UConn’s fans will make the relatively short trip over to MSG.
6. Nebraska's Fall from Big Ten Contention
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Preseason Prediction: Nebraska finishes fifth in the Big Ten.
Why It Went Wrong
Man, Nebraska has struggled this year. It was once a team that once had the promise to return to the NCAA tournament after finishing an astounding fourth in the Big Ten last year. Now? Nebraska sees a resume with losses to Incarnate Word and currently skydives with a six-game losing streak.
Tim Miles, Nebraska’s third-year coach, told SI.com:
"I don't know that you can help but be very concerned. One of the coaches said, `I think we're at rock bottom.' I said, `No, you never say that.' The one thing I've learned in 20 years of head coaching, don't talk about rock bottom. Just talk about how we need to get better and believing in what we're doing and go from there.
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That was earlier in the year, when there may have been some hope of salvaging a .500 season. The Cornhuskers are 13-15 and 5-11 in the Big Ten. The silver lining is a win against Michigan State, but even those Spartans are a bit down this year.
Nebraska can only look to next year and hope that leading scorer Terran Petteway comes back for his senior year.
5. Notre Dame so Low in the ACC
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Preseason Prediction: Notre Dame finishes ninth in the ACC.
Why it Went Wrong
Two words: Jerian Grant.
And wrong here feels so right if you’re an Irish fan. Notre Dame started the season as hot as any team in college basketball. It won 15 of its first 16 games. It beat North Carolina on the road and Duke at home. (We won’t mention the 30-point drubbing Duke gave the Irish on Coach K Court in the rematch.)
Grant has been the engine, and if it weren’t for Duke’s Jahlil Okafor, a National Player of the Year candidate, Grant would be a front-runner for ACC Player of the Year honors.
Grant, back this year after being ruled academically ineligible last season, averages 16.9 points and 6.6 assists per game. He’s shooting nearly 50 percent from the field, and that’s key. Notre Dame is second in the country in field-goal percentage (.508).
Tom Noie of the South Bend Tribune said it best: “Everything has broken right for this year’s Irish – a special, unique talent in Grant is part of a solid senior nucleus that has driven this team all season.”
Nobody saw just how good Notre Dame would be. If it can close out its season with wins over Louisville and Clemson it will be 14-4 in the ACC.
4. Harvard as a Top 25 Team
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Preseason Prediction: Harvard will be a Top 25 team.
Why It Went Wrong
Maybe it all went wrong when Harvard ran into the UVA defense and scored 27 points. That’s 27 points in the game, not the half, which would also be embarrassing, but not nearly as much.
In that game the Crimson scored eight points in the first half and shot 8-of-50 from the field. Siyani Chambers, one of Harvard’s best players, went 0-of-10 and didn’t get to the free-throw line once.
All of that said, Harvard schedules tough games outside of the Ivy League. It followed its loss to Virginia by traveling to Arizona State and losing by just 10 on the road.
Harvard is 10-2 in the Ivy League, tied for first with Yale. Bleacher Report’s Jason King said before the season that, “Tommy Amaker is building the Gonzaga of the Ivy League. He’s recruiting talent on a major-conference level…”
Harvard may be one of those threats to upset a team or two in the tournament, but they’re not a Top 25 team.
3. Florida No. 2 in the SEC
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Preseason Prediction: Florida will finish second in the SEC and with an NCAA tournament berth.
Why It Went Wrong
Here’s the question posed by CBSSports.com writer Chip Patterson: “Florida's personnel losses are notable, no doubt, but would you bet against Billy Donovan returning to the second weekend of the tournament?”
Vinyl records screeched all across the Sunshine State and through the SEC with that one.
Yes, Florida lost a lot of talent from its highly potent team from last year, but who could have predicted the Gators would be this mediocre? They’re 7-9 in the conference and 14-15 overall.
The final game on the schedule is at Kentucky. No doubt this was put on the schedule in the hopes that SEC supremacy would be on the line. Instead it may be the regular-season crowning moment of Kentucky’s unbeaten run.
For Florida, so much of this season balanced on the knife’s edge. It has lost five games by two points or fewer. It has just three double-digit losses this season.
While Florida is 10th in defensive efficiency according to KenPom.com, it ranks 153rd in offense. Florida can’t score.
Donovan, to his credit, earned his 500th career win.
Halfway to Coach K.
2. Marcus Paige as ACC Player of the Year
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Preseason Prediction: Marcus Paige will be ACC Player of the Year.
Why it Went Wrong
Paige came off of a sophomore year that saw him average 17.5 points and 4.2 assists per game while shooting .440 from the field.
Hopes were high in Chapel Hill, yet this lefty is down in just about every category except for assists. He’s scoring 13.4 points per game and shooting .398 from the field. The increased attention and no bona fide second option have made containing Paige far simpler this season.
Plantar fasciitis—a debilitating and nagging foot injury—has slowed him this season.
Martin Rickman of SI.com wrote, "[T]he team doesn’t need Paige to do it all off the dribble or create for himself late in games like he's had to in the past. But The Tar Heels do need Paige to facilitate the offense and create a capable inside-out game to keep defenses from keying on the paint."
The Tar Heels aren’t as powerful as people had thought early in the year. Some tough breaks and a tough schedule translated into a subpar season by Carolina’s standards.
1. Maryland Would Struggle in the Big Ten
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Preseason Prediction: The Terps will finish 10th in the Big Ten.
Why It Went Wrong
This may be the biggest prediction gone wrong as we look back on the past few months.
The Terrapins were picked to finish 10th in their first year in the Big Ten. Maryland is on the verge of finishing 14-4 in the league, just one game behind mighty Wisconsin—a team Maryland beat, 59-53.
Here’s what CBSSports.com’s Matt Norlander had to say back in October:
"I expect they'll nab one or two nice wins from the top four teams in the league, but ultimately, what makes you think Maryland can play its way to 21 victories and a spot in the field of 68? I think they'll just be OK. Average. And that's the thing that's driving Terps fans nuts. Because Turgeon has the ability, and Maryland has the infrastructure, to blast out of the middle of the pack.
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Maryland lost to Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State and Iowa. It closes out its season against Rutgers and Nebraska and should finish second in the league.
Coach Mark Turgeon may have coached himself to a Big Ten Coach of the Year Award with they way he got his team to shine. That win over Wisconsin may have sealed the award for him.
All stats are current as of March 1.
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