College Basketball Rankings 2014-15: Bleacher Report's Week 16 Top 25

By this time next week, it will be March.

We can't believe it either.

It felt like just yesterday we were working on our preseason Top 25, but maybe that's because so many of the teams are the same today as they were in mid-November.

We certainly had a couple of whiffs—most notably Florida at No. 7 and Nebraska at No. 17—but ranked in our preseason Top 14 were all eight of the teams currently at the top of our poll and those that are all but unanimously projected for the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in the NCAA tournament.

After the top eight is where things start to get interesting.

Was Utah's loss to Oregon really that bad? How high can Northern Iowa climb while playing in a mid-major conference? Why in the world did Notre Dame play a nonconference schedule worthy of a minor conference school? And is Louisville now a lock for the seemingly annual dishonor of being the team that flirts with missing the tournament despite opening the month of February ranked in the Top 15?

C.J. Moore, Jason King and I sought to answer each of those questions in filling out our weekly Top 25 ballots.

Teams Dropped from Rankings: Ohio State (21), Butler (22), Temple (25)

Others Considered: Georgetown, Murray State, Ole Miss, Rhode Island, Ohio State, Butler

Our experts participate in weekly voting for B/R's Top 25. Once a vote is cast for a specific team, it's assigned a value—25 points for the No. 1 team in the rankings, 24 points for the second spot and so on. The point totals are then added up to create the Top 25.

25-21: Providence-Louisville

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25. Providence

Record: 19-8, 9-5

Previous rank: 24

The Friars only played one game this week, but they made a nice statement in that 27-point win at DePaul. Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton combined for 43 points, pacing the team to victory as they have all season. Providence has a big game coming up on Tuesday at Villanova, but this is a tournament team regardless of what happens in that one.

24. Virginia Commonwealth

Record: 21-6, 11-3

Previous rank: NR

Since the team lost Briante Weber, JeQuan Lewis has filled the void in a big way for the Rams, averaging 13.7 points, 3.5 assists and 2.2 steals over his last six games. In conjunction with Treveon Graham returning to action and looking great (16.7 points and 6.7 rebounds per game in his last three), VCU looks almost as good as it did at full strength.

23. Michigan State

Record: 19-8, 10-4

Previous rank: 23

In repaying Illinois for a home loss two weeks ago, the Spartans improved to 10-4 in Big Ten play. That doesn't mean quite as much as it would have in previous seasons, but it's more than enough to remain in our Top 25. Branden Dawson had 36 points, 20 rebounds, four blocks and four assists in two road wins this week.

22. San Diego State

Record: 22-6, 12-3

Previous rank: NR

Since suffering that embarrassing loss to Fresno State at the beginning of the Mountain West Conference season, the Aztecs have won 11 of 13, including sweeping both Wyoming and New Mexico. They have held all but one of those opponents to 63 points or fewer. And best of all, Dwayne Polee II returned to action on Saturday night after missing 15 games due to a heart condition.

Obviously, this is a bit different than a sprained ankle or a fractured wrist, but if Polee can give San Diego State 15 minutes per game, his return in conjunction with Malik Pope's emergence over the past month could be the difference between a second-round loss and a potential run to the Elite Eight.

Keep in mind, we really haven't seen a full-strength San Diego State team yet this season.

21. Louisville

Record: 21-6, 9-5

Previous rank: 13

Oh boy.

Louisville's season was already trending in the wrong direction before Sunday's announcement by sports information director Kenny Klein that the school has dismissed Chris Jones from the team. Without Jones, the Cardinals lost by 10 to Syracuse. Even with Jones playing 36 minutes and scoring 17 points, they only beat Miami by two.

They would have to spectacularly crash and burn in order to miss the tournament at this point, but the Cardinals were a projected No. 3 seed a week or two ago. Unless Quentin Snider replaces Jones as effortlessly as Bronson Koenig replaced Traevon Jackson in Wisconsin, Louisville could be headed for an early exit in March.

20-16: West Virginia-SMU

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20. West Virginia

Record: 21-6, 9-5

Previous rank: Not Ranked

We were ready to give up on the Mountaineers a week ago. They had been blown out in three of their last four games and just barely eked out a home win over Kansas State. But after beating Kansas at home and winning by 10 at Oklahoma State this week, they are right back in our rankings with room to spare. Their aggressive style makes them the ultimate tournament wild card.

19. North Carolina

Record: 19-8, 9-5

Previous rank: 18

Taken independently, there's no shame whatsoever in losing at Duke. But this was North Carolina's fourth loss in the span of five games—and the second time during that stretch that the Tar Heels gave away what seemed like an insurmountable second-half lead. They still don't have any awful losses, but a 2-7 record against the RPI Top 40 isn't exactly a great argument for an NCAA tournament No. 4 seed or better.

18. Maryland

Record: 22-5, 10-4

Previous rank: 20

Most ranked teams tend to win in blowout fashion and lose by close margins, but Maryland has taken the opposite approach lately. In the past month, the Terrapins are 5-3 with no wins by more than six points and no losses by fewer than 16. Both of those potential outcomes are very much in play when the Badgers come to town on Tuesday.

17. Baylor

Record: 20-7, 8-6

Previous rank: 19

Kansas State and Texas Tech are hardly the class of the conference, but holding consecutive Big 12 opponents to fewer than 50 points is pretty doggone impressive. Taurean Prince had a very strong week, tallying 36 points, eight steals, seven rebounds and five assists.

16. SMU

Record: 22-5, 13-2

Previous rank: 16

As far as teams that lost three of the first five games of the season go, no one in the country has been more liquid-hot magma than SMU. Granted, the American Athletic Conference is a far cry from the ACC or the Big 12, but the Mustangs have still won 20 of their last 22 games thanks in large part to great defense.

15. Arkansas

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Record: 22-5, 11-3 (32 points)

Previous rank: 15

Results since last poll: vs. Missouri (W 84-69); at Mississippi State (W 65-61)

Games this week: vs. Texas A&M; at Kentucky

Bobby Portis might be the most underappreciated player in the country.

Need proof? Let's play a blind resume game. Here are the stats for Bobby Portis and two other noteworthy players during the conference portion of the season:

• Player A: 32.4 MPG, 17.2 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 1.2 APG
• Player B: 31.1 MPG, 18.1 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 2.0 BPG, 1.1 APG
• Player C: 33.8 MPG, 18.8 PPG, 8.6 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 2.8 APG

Pretty close, right?

Player B is Portis, and we used the conference portion of the season because he got out to a bit of a "slow" start. However, he has 10 double-doubles in his last 19 games, and in five of the nine games in which he failed to reach the necessary plateaus, he only missed by one rebound.

He has been phenomenal for the Razorbacks. If there was a Sophomore of the Year award in college basketball, we'd probably be looking at a five-way race between Portis, LSU's Jordan Mickey, Louisville's Terry Rozier, Providence's Kris Dunn and Murray State's Cameron Payne—and Portis would be our favorite at the moment.

And, oh, by the way, Player A is Jahlil Okafor and Player C is Frank Kaminsky. If Arkansas were to beat Kentucky next weekend to potentially climb into the AP Top 10, don't be surprised if a lot of people suddenly start talking about Portis as a Player of the Year candidate.

14. Oklahoma

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Record: 19-8, 10-5 (33 points)

Previous rank: 17

Results since last poll: vs. Texas (W 71-69); at Texas Tech (W 79-75)

Games this week: vs. TCU 

The past week and a half hasn't exactly gone according to plan for the Sooners. They lost to a Kansas State team that has otherwise been in shambles for the past month before needing a late rally to win a home game against Texas and needing overtime to beat Texas Tech.

However, they got to 10 Big 12 wins as a result of those close victories. And 10 wins in the nation's best conference got enough of our attention to vault the Sooners three spots to No. 14 despite the relatively uninspiring week.

They get one more tuneup game against TCU next weekend before the absolute gauntlet of playing at Iowa State, versus Kansas, the Big 12 tournament and the NCAA tournament.

With 14 games against the RPI Top 50 behind them, the Sooners have already been tested as much as any other team in the country. In theory, that should prepare them for the stretch ahead—provided there's enough energy left in their legs.

13. Wichita State

Stephen Lance Dennee/Associated Press

Record: 25-3, 15-1 (38 points)

Previous rank: 14

Results since last poll: at Southern Illinois (W 84-62); vs. Evansville (W 62-43)

Games this week: at Indiana State; vs. Northern Iowa

Remember when Darius Carter was an unstoppable force in the paint?

From Dec. 9 through Jan. 17, Carter was averaging 13.9 points and 7.7 rebounds per game. Over his last nine games, though, he has put up just 7.7 points and 3.1 rebounds on average.

That didn't cut it in the first game against Northern Iowa, and it's not going to work in Saturday's rematch with the Panthers, either. The Shockers have extremely talented guards, but they might not be able to hang with quality teams unless midseason Carter returns.

The good news is they haven't been facing any quality teams lately. Without anything resembling a reliable post presence, Wichita State has won its last five games by an average margin of 21.4 points per game.

But blowouts of Missouri Valley also-rans can only go so far. Wichita State's best RPI win of the season was a home game against Tulsa, meaning the Shockers are 0-2 against teams likely to make the NCAA tournament. If they drop to 0-3 in that category, we'll start looking for excuses to drop them in our rankings and bracket projections.

12. Northern Iowa

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Record: 26-2, 15-1 (43 points)

Previous rank: 10

Results since last poll: at Loyola IL (W 58-39); vs. Bradley (W 56-39)

Games this week: vs. Evansville; at Wichita State

I've been asked countless times over the past couple of weeks whether Northern Iowa is the real deal. My response has always been some variant of the following: If you're buying Virginia and Wisconsin as title contenders—which you should—then you've got to buy the Panthers as a sleeper to reach the Final Four.

That's largely because they play such a similar breed of slow-tempo, brutally stingy defense.

Since giving up 93 points in a double-overtime loss to VCU in mid-December, Northern Iowa has held its last 18 opponents to an average of 50.9 points per game.

Through 16 Missouri Valley Conference games, only one team has eclipsed 60 points against the Panthers, and Illinois State didn't exactly light up the scoreboard in that 83-64 game. They rank 12th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com, and have held 20 of their 28 opponents to 0.93 points per possession or less.

The biggest game of the season, however, is coming up on Saturday. Northern Iowa comfortably took care of Wichita State at home a few weeks ago, but if the Panthers can do the same in the Charles Koch Arena, perhaps they'll finally get some more love as one of the 10 best teams in the country.

11. Notre Dame

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

Record: 24-4, 12-3 (46 points)

Previous rank: 12

Results since last poll: vs. Wake Forest (W 88-75); at Boston College (W 87-70)

Games this week: vs. Syracuse

Notre Dame seems to have finally snapped out of its funk.

Prior to this week, the Fighting Irish were 2-2 in their last four games, including that 30-point loss at Duke. Even their wins were far from inspiring, as they won by just eight at home against Boston College and dodged a bullet at Clemson when Damarcus Harrison missed a potentially game-winning three-pointer at the buzzer.

The big problem was their offense. They had the most efficient offense in the country for most of the season, but they averaged an uncharacteristic 65.3 points per game during that four-game stretch.

The 87.5 points Notre Dame averaged this week was more like it. Jerian Grant had a points-assists double-double in both games, and Bonzie Colson was huge off the bench, scoring 24 points in just 27 minutes.

We'll see if the Fighting Irish can keep it going in the next two games against former Big East rivals Syracuse and Louisville.

10. Utah

Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

Record: 21-5, 11-3 (47 points)

Previous rank: 9

Results since last poll: at Oregon State (W 47-37); at Oregon (L 69-58)

Games this week: vs. Arizona State; vs. Arizona

Contrary to popular Twitter opinion immediately after the game, Utah's loss at Oregon was hardly an awful one. The Ducks are a fringe RPI Top 50 team that desperately needed a marquee win to somewhat comfortably get onto the right side of the bubble.

The Utes lost a little bit of their luster in our eyes, but the gap between No. 9 and No. 10 was such a gulf one week ago that it would have taken something truly awful to cause them to drop all the way out of our Top 10.

After all, Utah has 10 RPI Top 100 wins and a resume devoid of any bad losses. Good luck finding 10 other teams that can make that claim.

However, the Utes have now burned their not-really-bad-but-still-kind-of-bad-loss mulligan—a la Wisconsin's loss to Rutgers and Villanova's loss to Seton Hall—meaning they can't afford to lose Thursday's home game against Arizona State, and definitely can't afford to lose either of the remaining road games against Washington and Washington State.

A home win over Arizona would certainly be nice, but Utah could finish the regular season ranked in the Top 10 even without a win over the Wildcats.

9. Iowa State

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Record: 20-6, 10-4 (50 points)

Previous rank: 11

Results since last poll: at Oklahoma State (W 70-65); at Texas (W 85-77)

Games this week: vs. Baylor; at Kansas State

This week could have been a disaster for Iowa State.

First, the Cyclones had to travel to Oklahoma State to face a team that had been red-hot before a somewhat inexplicable loss to TCU. The Cowboys were looking to avoid falling to .500 in conference play and to perhaps make themselves a stone-cold lock for the tournament with five AP Top 25 wins in the span of eight games.

Then, they had to travel to Texas to play a road game against a team that's too talented for the bubble but desperately needs a marquee win to avoid falling out of the projected tournament field.

But instead of losing those contests, the Cyclones won them both, improving to 10-4 in the nation's best conference and really solidifying their case for (at least) a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament. If they're able to win out (vs. Baylor, at Kansas State, vs. Oklahoma, at TCU) before the Big 12 tournament, there's no telling how high this team could climb.

After all, Iowa State caught fire to win last year's Big 12 tournament to earn a No. 3 seed, and that resume wasn't nearly as strong as this one could be.

8. Kansas

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Record: 22-5, 11-3 (54 points)

Previous rank: 7

Results since last poll: at West Virginia (L 62-61); vs. TCU (W 81-72)

Games this week: at Kansas State; vs. Texas

Ah, the perils of the Big 12, where seemingly every team in the conference is the best in the country at something.

This past week, Kansas ran into a West Virginia team that forces more turnovers than any other team and grabs offensive rebounds on a more-than-regular basis.

True to form, the Mountaineers forced 14 Kansas turnovers and pulled down 22 offensive boards to eke out a one-point win—that would have been a one-point loss if Perry Ellis had been able to convert on a gorgeous full-court pass from Jamari Traylor at the end of the game.

Still, there's no denying that the Jayhawks are one of the best teams in the nation. They're still in first place in the toughest conference and have a 9-5 record against the RPI Top 50—including five wins against the RPI Top 15.

They only have a one-game cushion atop the conference, though, so they can't afford any slip-ups in winnable but challenging games this week.

7. Arizona

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Record: 24-3, 12-2 (57 points)

Previous rank: 8

Results since last poll: vs. USC (W 87-57); vs. UCLA (W 57-47)

Games this week: at Colorado; at Utah

On Saturday night, Arizona might have set an all-time record for most convincing win by a team that failed to score a single point in the first six minutes of either half.

Though the Wildcats were outscored 22-0 during those stretches, they were lethal in the other 28 minutes, more than doubling the Bruins by a 57-25 margin.

It was an atypical offensive effort for an Arizona team that had scored at least 86 points in each of its previous three games, but it was business as usual on defense. Spearheaded by T.J. McConnell—who might be more of a defensive nuisance than Aaron Craft ever was for Ohio State—the Wildcats have held 12 of their last 14 opponents to 62 points or fewer.

However, it's all been little more than preparation for the rematch with Utah this coming Saturday. The Wildcats stifled the Utes in January, winning by a score of 69-51. If they can win with that type of ease in Salt Lake City, their case for a No. 1 seed will be much stronger.

6. Villanova

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Record: 25-2, 12-2 (61 points)

Previous rank: 6

Results since last poll: vs. Seton Hall (W 80-54); at Marquette (W 87-76)

Games this week: vs. Providence; at Xavier 

In case you gave up on Villanova after Georgetown blew them out in mid-January, there's still a little bit of time left to jump back on the bandwagon.

Since that 20-point loss, Villanova has won eight straight—including a three-game stretch against NCAA tournament teams: verus Georgetown, at Butler and at Providence. The Wildcats won six of those eight games by double digits, and have now won 17 of their last 22 games by a margin of at least 11 points.

It's hardly fair to discount this team for its margin of defeat on a tough night against the Hoyas without also noting the margin of victory by which it's been destroying the vast majority of other opponents it's played—including the rematch against the Hoyas.

We'll take a quick look at Villanova's case for a No. 1 seed on Gonzaga's slide, but note that if the Wildcats go 2-0 against Providence and Xavier this week, they're looking at a 27-2 record with 11 wins against the RPI Top 50—very similar to the resume that got Florida the No. 1 overall seed last season.

Seriously, folks, there are still seats on the bandwagon. Come aboard.

5. Gonzaga

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Record: 28-1, 16-0 (63 points)

Previous rank: 5

Results since last poll: at Pacific (W 86-74); at Saint Mary's (W 70-60)

Games this week: vs. San Diego; vs. BYU

Despite trailing by 17 points in the first half, Gonzaga stormed back for a crucial win over Saint Mary's on Saturday night to remain undefeated in WCC play.

But let's talk big picture for a moment, because there has been an ever-growing faction of crazies on the Internet that seem to think Gonzaga is a lock for a No. 1 seed if it wins each if its remaining games.

Gonzaga has one RPI Top 34 win—is Top 34 really any more arbitrary than Top 50—and it came at home against SMU back in the first week of the season when the Mustangs were still finding their way without Markus Kennedy.

Keeping that in mind, let's compare the resumes of the five teams most valiantly fighting for the No. 1 seeds that haven't already been reserved for Kentucky—while also noting that these non-Gonzaga squads are inevitably getting at least a few more games against RPI Top 50 teams:

• Gonzaga: 28-1, one RPI Top 34 win, four RPI Top 50 wins, eight RPI Top 100 wins
• Virginia: 25-1, five RPI Top 34 wins, eight RPI Top 50 wins, 14 RPI Top 100 wins
• Duke: 24-3, seven RPI Top 34 wins, 10 RPI Top 50 wins, 15 RPI Top 100 wins
• Villanova: 25-2, seven RPI Top 34 wins, nine RPI Top 50 wins, 13 RPI Top 100 wins
• Wisconsin: 25-2, three RPI Top 34 wins, six RPI Top 50 wins, 13 RPI Top 100 wins

And that doesn't even include Arizona or Kansas, which could each absolutely get back into the mix by running the table.

Now, if Gonzaga wins out and all of those teams start suffering multiple losses, then, sure, Gonzaga is a No. 1 seed. No question. But best of luck telling two of those other four teams that they're less deserving of a No. 1 seed than a Gonzaga team with a strength of schedule that just barely ranks inside the top 100.

4. Wisconsin

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Record: 25-2, 13-1 (68 points)

Previous rank: 3

Results since last poll: at Penn State (W 55-47); vs. Minnesota (W 63-53)

Games this week: at Maryland; vs. Michigan State

Two of the nation's biggest debates involve the Badgers: Who is most deserving of the Wooden Award, and who are the four No. 1 seeds for the NCAA tournament? And in both cases, Wisconsin's argument was strengthened this week.

The wins over Penn State and Minnesota were far from pretty, but Frank Kaminsky had 37 points, 14 rebounds and four blocks between the pair of low-scoring, slow-tempo games. In conjunction with Jahlil Okafor missing Duke's matchup against Clemson with a sprained ankle, Kaminsky's outstanding work in the close games went a long way toward proving that he's the most valuable player in the country.

(Worth noting: When the Badgers played a game without Kaminsky, they lost to Rutgers. Duke still won by 22 without Okafor.)

And on the No. 1 seed front, every win is a big step toward a spot on the top line. The Badgers now have 13 RPI Top 100 wins and would almost certainly get six or seven more if they don't lose another game. Say what you will about the Big Ten this season, but do you really think a Big Ten regular-season and conference tournament champion with 20 RPI Top 100 wins is getting a No. 2 seed?

3. Duke

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Record: 24-3, 11-3 (69 points)

Previous rank: 4

Results since last poll: vs. North Carolina (W 92-90); vs. Clemson (W 78-56)

Games this week: at Virginia Tech; vs. Syracuse

In a week where Duke beat North Carolina in overtime in one of the most exciting games of the season, the bigger story for the Blue Devils is the injured left ankle of Jahlil Okafor.

Okafor sprained his ankle in the first half of the win over the Tar Heels. He returned and played a total of 41 minutes but sat out the subsequent game against Clemson—not that they needed him, apparently.

After the game, Mike Krzyzewski told reporters, "There's nothing structurally wrong...we're hoping he'll be ready by Wednesday (at Virginia Tech)."

Yet, we would be remiss if we didn't express some concern. As far as sprained ankles go, this was a pretty nasty looking one. The chances of Okafor feeling 100 percent comfortable on that ankle again this season would seem to be pretty slim.

Duke was able to beat Clemson without him and could likely survive against the Hokies if he's in street clothes and a walking boot for a second straight game. But on a team that's already down to eight scholarship players, anything less than 100 percent health for its best player could be a major problem in the long run.

2. Virginia

Ryan M. Kelly/Associated Press

Record: 25-1, 13-1 (69 points)

Previous rank: 2

Results since last poll: vs. Pittsburgh (W 61-49); vs. Florida State (W 51-41)

Games this week: at Wake Forest; vs. Virginia Tech

It was impressive enough when Virginia was beating teams without Justin Anderson, but on Sunday night the Cavaliers had to carry on after a head-on-head collision in the second half that left both London Perrantes and Malcolm Brogdon dripping blood.

Brogdon returned in short order, but Perrantes was done for the game, finally returning from the locker room after about 20 minutes looking like he had gone through 12 rounds of heavyweight boxing.

And yet, the Cavaliers prevailed thanks in large part to Florida State's inability to make a single field goal in the final 10 minutes and 30 seconds of the game.

That was par for the course for Virginia. It has never been about the individuals on offense. It has always been about the five-man unit on defense.

Two weeks ago, Louisville head coach Rick Pitino commented to Bleacher Report on Virginia's defense, saying, "They're an excellent team. Every coach talks about a fist—all five guys being together—and they've got a great fist."

Despite the rash of recent injuries the Cavaliers have endured, that fist's grip on a No. 1 seed is stronger than ever.

1. Kentucky

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Record: 27-0, 14-0 (75 points)

Previous rank: 1

Results since last poll: at Tennessee (W 66-48); vs. Auburn (W 110-75)

Games this week: at Mississippi State; vs. Arkansas

Just when we thought Kentucky couldn't possibly get any better, the Wildcats go out and score 110 points against Auburn—the most points Kentucky has scored in a game since putting up 115 against Tennessee State on Dec. 30, 2002.

On the one hand, come on, it's Auburn. The Tigers gave up 101 at home against Arkansas less than two weeks ago.

But the game was just the epitome of 2014-15 Kentucky basketball. Eight players scored at least nine points, and one of the ones who didn't (Marcus Lee) had a dunk that was one of the biggest highlights of the night. The Wildcats out-rebounded the Tigers by a 44-22 margin, blocked six shots and recorded seven steals.

Only four games remain until the start of the SEC tournament, and you may have heard that Kentucky has yet to lose a game. The Wildcats still have a couple of tough contests ahead, but if they keep playing like they did against Auburn, they won't even break a sweat in finishing the regular season undefeated.

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.