Updated 2015 College Basketball Power Rankings for the ACC
It's hard to believe, but the regular season is almost over. Aside from Kentucky laying siege to the land, very little has gone according to plan. None of that is truer than in the ACC.
Duke was a near-consensus pick to win the ACC, which technically is still possible, but who saw the Blue Devils losing three games in the conference?
Who saw them losing three games at all this season?
North Carolina has been one of the more enigmatic teams, while Virginia held onto its unbeaten record longer than any team not from Lexington, Kentucky.
So where does that leave us?
Suffice it to say Duke is no longer No. 1 in the power rankings, but where do the remaining 14 teams shake up?
That’s why we’re here, so read on to see how these teams have fared up to this point and what their postseason prospects look like. The records in parentheses are conference records.
15. Boston College (1-12)
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What’s Gone Right This Season
There’s a time for irony and a time to leave it buried somewhere beneath a four-foot snow bank.
The Eagles are 1-12 in the conference and 9-16 overall. The record says it all.
Boston College lost to Miami on February 16, and the Hurricanes needed double overtime to do it. That at least speaks to the fight of the Eagles in a season gone horribly wrong.
"You've got to put these games away," Boston College coach Jim Christian said in an Associated Press story via ESPN.com. "You only get so many chances."
What’s Gone Wrong This Season
Boston College can’t score or defend.
The Eagles rank 241st in points per game with 64.9, 301st in rebounding with 31.7 per game and 184th in field-goal percentage with .434.
Defensively, it isn’t any better, as it appears the Eagles have paved an open road to the basket for their opponents.
Postseason Potential
The couch?
Listen, the Eagles have four sophomores, one freshman and three juniors. Boston College will graduate eight of its players and start fresh.
Oliver Hanlan, a junior, leads this team in scoring with 18.1 points per game, so there's that.
Postseason potential? Not this year, but with an infusion of new talent, maybe Coach Christian makes Boston College relevant again like it once was under Al Skinner.
14. Virginia Tech (2-11)
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What’s Gone Right This Season
Virginia Tech needed overtime to do it but stole a win from Pitt on January 27, 70-67. That was after starting ACC play with six straight losses by an average of 14.8 points.
In that stretch, Tech did lose to No. 2 Virginia by only three points in a game with a combined score of 97. It was not a moral victory for the Hokies.
"You don't play for all that. That's the truth. I'm not trying to be silly," Hokies coach Buzz Williams said in an Associated Press story, via ESPN.com. "If we're supposed to be applauded for playing hard, I think you can do that over at the Blacksburg Rec (Recreation Center). It has to be more than that."
What’s Gone Wrong This Season
Just about everything.
The Hokies haven’t played winning basketball. You can’t be ranked in the 200s in offense and defense and expect to win in the ACC.
“No matter where we play, it’s a challenge for us,” Williams told Mike Barber of the Richmond Times-Dispatch. “When you’re 2-10, there’s a lot of things, not just one thing, regardless of where you play. Obviously we haven’t won on the road. I think that’s what good teams do. ... You could almost say the same thing at home. We need to win more home games.”
Postseason Potential
Like Boston College, the Hokies need to believe better days are ahead. Williams is in his first year on the VT bench and is still trying to feel things out. Growing pains in the ACC hurt more than in any other conference.
He’s shuffling things around, trying to make his often overmatched team as competitive as possible this year.
“Just trying to figure out what’s best,” Williams said in the Richmond Times-Dispatch. “I think any time you’re struggling, trying to figure out our roster, what’s best...what’s the best way to juggle all that.”
13. Georgia Tech (3-11)
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What’s Gone Right This Season
When Georgia Tech decides to win the ACC, it goes out and wins.
Its signature victory came against the enigmatic No. 23 Hurricanes by 20, 70-50.
"We can compete with anybody in the country, in our opinion," Yellow Jackets guard Marcus Georges-Hunt said in an Associated Press story via ESPN.com. "We stayed positive. You stick together as a family. You keep your head up and keep fighting."
That was Georgia Tech’s first win in the conference, and it has since won two more over lesser teams in Clemson and Wake Forest.
What’s Gone Wrong This Season
Well, most recently, head coach Brian Gregory indefinitely suspended junior guard Chris Bolden for “not adhering to the standards of our program,” according to Guy Curtwright of the Gwinnett Daily Post.
Also, Georgia Tech only scored 28 points against Virginia. Shooting 12-of-49 from the field and going 0-of-12 from the three-point line was a can of Raid for the Yellow Jackets.
Postseason Potential
Georgia Tech sits at 12-14 overall. To reach the NIT, teams usually need a .500 record or better.
So while it’s possible the Yellow Jackets could qualify, it’s highly unlikely. Their final four games of the regular season include two against No. 15 North Carolina, home against No. 12 Louisville and at Clemson.
The Yellow Jackets may go 1-3 over that stretch for a 13-17 regular-season record.
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12. Wake Forest (4-10)
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What’s Gone Right This Season
The Demon Deacons, already suffering from a down run through ACC play, lost by just one point to No. 2 Virginia in Charlottesville, 61-60, on February 14.
Granted, the Cavaliers were playing without dynamic forward Justin Anderson, but for Wake Forest to travel to the No. 2 team in the land and nearly steal a win—and hand the Cavs only their second loss—is impressive.
It didn't happen, but say what you will—moral victories count for some people.
What’s Gone Wrong This Season
That same game against Virginia? Wake Forest allowed 34 points in the paint and 20 points off turnovers.
Wake Forest coach Danny Manning said in an Associated Press story, via ESPN.com:
"There'll be lots of people that look to the last minute or so of the ballgame, but for me, I saw those omissions that if we corrected them it wouldn't have been that close down the stretch. We've had a lot of learning experiences this year by that definition, and I'm tired of them.
"
Frustrations aside, what’s killing Wake Forest is defense: The team is 290th in points allowed with 71.0. Its defensive efficiency rating is 112th, according to KenPom.com.
Postseason Potential
The Demon Deacons sit at 12-15 overall with home games against No. 2 Virginia and unranked Pitt. They also go on the road to No. 4 Duke and lowly Boston College.
A split would put them at 14-17, and they would need a fairly deep run in the ACC tournament to woo the NIT selection committee.
11. Florida State (7-7)
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What’s Gone Right This Season
If Florida State never left the state of Florida and played only in-state teams, it would be rivaling Kentucky as the best team in the land.
In the nonconference schedule, the Seminoles won five of six games including wins over the University of Central Florida, the University of North Florida, the University of South Florida and Florida University. And, most recently, Florida State beat No. 23 Miami on February 1.
"We had to create some offense from our defense," Florid State coach Leonard Hamilton said in an Associated Press story, via ESPN.com. "[Montay Brandon’s] experience told him that somebody had to make some plays. He made several defensive plays that gave us an emotional lift. I thought that really, really sparked us."
What’s Gone Wrong This Season
Three straight losses to unranked ACC foes Syracuse, Pitt and North Carolina State hurt. It’s too bad because the Seminoles schedule is weak.
Home to Duke, at UVA and home to Louisville are far and away the only games you’d mark down as losses for Florida State.
Getting Pitt, Clemson and Virginia Tech twice was a six-pack of potential wins, but the Seminoles have not come through.
They can point to the four-point loss to North Carolina or the three-point loss to Duke as silver linings, but by and large this team has let a lot slip past.
Postseason Potential
With games against Boston College, Pitt and Miami, Florida State could be a game or two above .500 by season’s end.
The ’Noles won’t make the Big Dance, but the little dance is well within the realm of possibility.
Should Florida State tap into the performances that almost saw it beat UNC and Duke, it could advance deep into the NIT.
10. Clemson (7-7)
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What’s Gone Right This Season
Clemson sits pretty at 7-7 in the ACC. The Tigers are good enough to beat teams they should beat and not good enough to beat teams they want to beat.
Clemson is perfectly buoyant—not sinking but not taking off either.
Defense has been Clemson’s strength. The team allows just 60.1 points per game, good for 36th in the country. It’s a good thing it can smother out other offenses because its offense doesn’t score nearly enough points.
But we’ll save that for the next topic.
What’s Gone Wrong This Season
Clemson ranks 294th in points per game with 62.2 and 201st in adjusted offensive efficiency, according KenPom.com.
Patrick Stevens of Syracuse.com wrote, “Clemson simply can't score enough, and it slides back close to the bottom of the league. If the Tigers have a miserable year, it probably won't be hard to diagnose why.”
And with games at No. 4 Duke, at No. 10 Notre Dame, home to North Carolina State and home to Georgia Tech (who beat Clemson on Feb. 16), Clemson could lose all four of its remaining contests.
Postseason Potential
Clemson is probably an NIT team at best, but it all depends on how it closes out the season.
Can the Tigers defense stifle Duke's and Notre Dame’s offense? Losing by nine Monday night to Georgia Tech did little to inspire confidence at Clemson.
9. North Carolina State (6-7)
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What’s Gone Right This Season
North Carolina State beat No. 2 Duke, handed the Blue Devils their first loss of the year and the first of three in the conference.
The Wolfpack shot 55 percent that day, 11 percentage points above their season average.
"Today [against Duke] we just all put it together and we just played as a team," NC State’s Trevor Lacey said in an Associated Press story, via ESPN.com. "When we play like this, we're a good team."
It also broke Louisville’s heart on Valentine’s Day by beating the Cardinals soundly, 74-65.
In its seven losses in the ACC, NC State has lost by just 5.57 points per game. That's not bad, but it could be so much better.
What’s Gone Wrong This Season
For starters, losses to Wake Forest, Miami and Clemson have kept the Wolfpack from breaching out of the B tier of the ACC. It has quality wins against Duke and Louisville (and lost in overtime to Notre Dame).
What this suggests is the Wolfpack are able to get up for the big games while allowing the lesser teams to pick at them. NC State needed overtime to beat Georgia Tech by one.
After the loss to Wake Forest, NC State head coach Mark Gottfried said in an Associated Press story, via ESPN.com, “Even within the game, we can be great or we can be bad. We're everywhere right now."
Postseason Potential
And we have our first bubble team.
NC State’s RPI sits at No. 48, and as Al Featherston of SB Nation wrote:
"The fact is that N.C. State can't afford any more slip-ups. They have to beat VPI (at home), Boston College (on the road) and Syracuse (at home) down the stretch. And they really need to do some damage in road games at UNC and Clemson—two historical death traps for the Pack. And a win or two in the ACC Tournament wouldn't hurt.
"
So that’s where the Wolfpack stand.
8. Pitt (6-7)
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What’s Gone Right This Season
Pitt is a head-scratcher. Who is it? Is it the team that beat North Carolina and Notre Dame? Or is it the team that lost to Virginia Tech?
Jamie Dixon’s team responded to losing three games in a row (No. 5 Duke, No. 10 Louisville and Virginia Tech) by beating Notre Dame, Syracuse and Bryant (a near letdown game after that Notre Dame win).
Also, sophomore Sheldon Jeter has come into his own, challenging his team.
“He's playing in the best league in the country against the best teams in the country, and he wasn't doing that last year,” Dixon told TribLive.com. “It says sophomore, but he's a freshman. He was a transfer; he didn't practice.”
What’s Gone Wrong This Season
With eight freshmen and sophomores, Pitt has been struggling with youth and inexperience this year.
Add to that mixture that Pitt can’t win on the road. The Panthers are just 1-7 away from home, while they were 7-2 a year ago.
Pitt could be a team on the rise in the latter part of this season.
“Sheldon's a sophomore; he's shooting better. Chris [Jones] is a sophomore; he's shooting better. James [Robinson] is a junior; he's shooting better. Mike's [Young] a sophomore. Jamel [Artis], they're getting better,” Dixon said on TribLive.com.
Postseason Potential
Pitt is 17-10 overall with five winnable games to close out ACC play against Syracuse, Boston College, Wake Forest, Miami and Florida State.
If Pitt wins out, it will be in the NCAA tournament. Al Featherston of SB Nation wrote:
"Pitt has no real chance at the bye into the ACC quarterfinals. Dixon's team will almost certainly start play in Greensboro on Wednesday. They aren't going to get a high NCAA seed.
In fact, if the Panthers make the field at all, it will be bye the skin of their collective teeth. It's going to take a strong finish to do that—starting with a split this week.
"
Pitt won’t earn a high seed, but if it gets in, it would have the benefit of Dixon’s 12-10 record in the Big Dance.
7. Syracuse (8-5)
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What’s Gone Right This Season
Staying above .500 in the ACC has been an accomplishment for the Orange, regardless of how unimposing its opponents have been. So long as its opponent isn’t ranked, Syracuse usually wins.
With the exception of St. John’s, Pitt, Clemson and Cal.
Syracuse just isn’t that good this year, despite beating No. 12 Louisville on February 18 in an impassioned game at home.
What’s Gone Wrong This Season
The Orange are 2-6 against teams within the top 50 and 3-4 against teams within the top 100.
Syracuse almost always boasts a strong zone, but lately, especially in the second half, opponents have dissected every which way.
Jim Boeheim told Donna Ditota of Syracuse.com after the loss to Duke at home: "Most of it was in the middle. They got the ball in the middle and that guy dumped it down, and our forwards didn't do a good job getting back in there. (Penetration) has been (a problem with) the guards, but in this game, it was more of that."
Postseason Potential
The postseason is a moot point for Syracuse after it chose self-flagellation for "past mistakes."
Boeheim said in a release that was published on Syracuse.com:
"I am very disappointed that our basketball team will miss the opportunity to play in the postseason this year. However, I supported this decision and I believe the University is doing the right thing by acknowledging that past mistakes occurred. Our players have faced adversity and challenges before. I know they will rise to this challenge by keeping our program strong and continuing to make our University proud.
"
None of these "past mistakes" involved any player on this current team. It's too bad for Rakeem Christmas, a senior, who won't have the benefit of that final push through a single elimination tournament.
6. Miami (7-6)
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What’s Gone Right This Season
Other teams have better records (right now) in the conference, but Miami remains the biggest wild card.
Are the Hurricanes the team that shocked Duke or the team that lost four of five (including depressing losses to Georgia Tech and Florida State)?
No matter what, Miami has the explosive future NBA dunk champion Sheldon McClellan and the zig-zagging Angel Rodriguez.
It took two overtimes for UVA to beat Miami, and the Hurricanes handled Duke at Cameron and beat Syracuse at the Carrier Dome. So they have the potential to do some dangerous things.
What’s Gone Wrong This Season
Raise your hand if Georgia Tech, a bottom dweller of the ACC, defeated you by 20 points.
Alabama A&M and Miami stand alone.
Miami's Jim Larranaga, who is in his 31st season as a head coach, nailed it when he said, “This team probably has the widest range of performance I've ever seen. They can be absolutely great one night, and you just don't recognize them the next day."
That isn’t good over the course of a long season, but in a single elimination tournament, maybe it pays off.
Postseason Potential
Miami has an outside shot at the NCAA tournament but needs to finish strong. All its games are winnable down the stretch, but it won’t be easy.
Miami will make the NIT at the very least and could be one of the favorites to win that tournament.
5. Louisville (8-5)
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What’s Gone Right This Season
This is merely conjecture, but if you were to ask 25 Division I coaches the team they’d least like to play, many would say Louisville.
Here's some more conjecture: Many big men probably don’t want anything to do with Montrezl Harrell. He’s a Tasmanian devil on the court. He’s the very symbol of a Rick Pitino team: a furious competitor who defends and scores.
Harrell can beat a triple-team. True story. He did it in a loss to Syracuse.
On top of that, Louisville was down by as many 18 points against No. 13 North Carolina and came back to win in overtime. The Cardinals never give up.
Louisville guard Terry Rozier said in an Associated Press story, via ESPN.com: “It was like we were desperate for a bucket, desperate to get something going. Trez got us going. We fed off his energy. He did a good job of just talking to us, bringing us in. His energy was just through the roof."
What’s Gone Wrong This Season
Sure, the Cardinals have lost five games in the ACC, but the suspension of Chris Jones for the game against Syracuse is the type of loss that can really affect the team. The suspension was “unspecified.”
It's impossible to deny that the absence of Jones played a role in the loss to Syracuse, which came on the heels of losing to North Carolina State for Louisville's first back-to-back losses of the season.
Either way, that’s not the type of behavior a coach or a teammate wants to see at this time of year. Jones is a key player in the offense and defense of this team.
If Louisville wants to get into the Sweet 16, it can’t have any dissent within its locker room.
Postseason Potential
It depends on the draw, but does anyone want to play this team, especially in March?
As it stands, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has Louisville as a No. 4 seed and in the same region as Kentucky. That game could break the Internet in the Sweet 16.
That game will be far from a gimme for Kentucky. Then throw in the electric charge of a rivalry game and a little dash of revenge from when these two played back in December, and this could be one of the most exciting—and most watched—games of the year.
4. North Carolina (8-5)
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What’s Gone Right This Season
North Carolina could have folded at any point during this season. Early losses to Butler and Iowa come to mind; however, the Tar Heels have counted on killer rebounding and efficient distribution of the ball.
That and J.P. Tokoto dunks—lots of beautiful dunks.
After beating Louisville on a late scoop by Marcus Paige, North Carolina ignited a six-game win streak. Paige had this to say about the home win against Louisville:
"This was the type of win we needed. We had a great chance on Monday night despite not playing very well to beat a team ranked ahead of us. We let that slip away. If you want to be a good seed in the [NCAA] tournament, want to be successful in March, you can't let a lot of those slip away.
"
That 13-0 start UNC went on to open the second half against Duke catalyzed an emphatic run that nearly resulted in an overtime win on the road.
What’s Gone Wrong This Season
Paige, a preseason ACC Player of the Year candidate, showed moments of greatness this year but hasn’t been the offensive force he was expected to be.
He’s averaging just 13.9 points per game and shooting an icy .400 from the field and even chillier .375 from the three-point arc.
Despite Paige’s struggles, and despite blowing an 18-point lead at Louisville, North Carolina is still a team that can beat anyone on any given night. That makes it especially dangerous in tournaments.
Postseason Potential
We can expect a No. 3 or No. 4 seed for UNC.
Kennedy Meeks has come into his own as a big man who can rival Jahlil Okafor, and Tokoto provides explosiveness on the offensive glass, should Paige and Co. put up errant shots.
An RPI ranking of No. 10 illustrates just how hard a road it has been for UNC, and that will only help the team in March.
If UNC can pound the ball low and continue to rebound the way it can, it will be a dangerous team in the tournament.
3. Notre Dame (11-3)
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What’s Gone Right This Season
Notre Dame is one of the surprise teams this year. It won 15 of its first 16 games including a 71-70 win over No. 18 North Carolina in Chapel Hill.
Jerian Grant has gone right this season too. He’s averaging 17.3 points, 6.4 assists and 2.9 boards per game. He’s shooting nearly 50 percent from the field and 77 percent from the free-throw line.
Grant leads a contingent of four players who are all averaging double digits this year.
What’s Gone Wrong This Season
When you have such a good offense, sometimes the defense suffers, and that’s the case with Notre Dame. The Irish allow 65.3 points per game, good for 145th in the land.
It appears they don’t care because they figure they’ll just outscore the opposition.
Notre Dame’s problems arise when it plays teams that are equally good on offense and then subsequently defend well. While Notre Dame beat Duke once, the Blue Devils handled the Irish to the tune of a 30-point beatdown in the rematch at Cameron Indoor Stadium.
"Their ball pressure harassed us, bothered us and never let Jerian Grant or any of us get into rhythm," Notre Dame coach Mike Brey said in an Associated Press story, via ESPN.com. "It was one of those where you're hanging on for dear life, and in this league, you've got to have a short memory."
Postseason Potential
The Irish are heading to the Big Dance.
Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com has Notre Dame as a No. 3 seed, and that feels right.
The Irish should be a Sweet 16 team and maybe even an Elite Eight team depending on their draw.
2. Duke (10-3)
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What’s Gone Right This Season
Where to start? The first level of "gone rightness" for the Blue Devils is Jahlil Okafor and his Player of the Year prowess, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.
Duke’s backcourt is the buried lede of its season. In its win over North Carolina, senior guard Quinn Cook drained six threes and went over 200 for his career, according to the ESPN broadcast. Feeding Cook assists was Duke’s other freshman star, Tyus Jones.
Jones put his team on his shoulders against UNC in the second half. His play down the stretch forced overtime, and Duke sneaked out of Cameron with a 92-90 win. Jones is a solid three-point shooter, but it was his attacking of the rim that powered the Duke comeback. It was fitting that the ball ended up in Jones' palms when the horn sounded.
Both Cook and Jones were integral in handing Virginia its only loss of the season (not to mention the win over UNC). Duke did it on the road too at Virginia.
“Me and Quinn have a great relationship," Jones said, according to Gary Parrish of CBSSports.com. "He's like a big brother to me. He's taken me under his wing and helped me a lot so far, and that's only going to increase."
What’s Gone Wrong This Season
It would have to be those early losses in ACC play, right? North Carolina State, Miami and Notre Dame found chinks in the Duke armor.
After losing to Miami, Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski was grim, saying on ESPN.com: “I’m not totally surprised with us losing, not tonight, I’m just saying losing because I never felt we were a great team. I felt we were really a good group of kids working our butts off, winning some big games and stuff like that. But we’re not that team yet.”
Duke has taken those lemons and squirted it in the faces of Louisville, North Carolina, Notre Dame (in a 30-point Round 2 rout) and Virginia.
Duke no longer had to contend with those “undefeated” questions and the pressure that comes with it.
There’s also that dismissal of Rasheed Sulaimon, but that could be a thing that went right and not wrong. Duke is 6-0 without him.
Postseason Potential
Duke will be a No. 1 or No. 2 seed and seems loaded for a run to the Final Four.
This team is well-rounded with a clutch backcourt and the impossibly efficient Okafor in the middle.
Al Featherston of SB Nation wrote, “We know this team is resilient. We know it is poised on the road and in the clutch. We know that it has the best inside-outside balance of any Duke team in many, many years.”
1. Virginia (12-1)
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What’s Gone Right This Season
In a word: defense.
Virginia’s pack-line defense is ruthless and the primary reason it has just one loss this season. On the surface, it’s quite simple. Maybe the best way to understand it is to understand how to beat it.
Rob Dauster of CollegeBasketballTalk.com wrote:
"The biggest key to breaking down Virginia’s defense is to have ball-handlers that can create off the dribble and shooters that can knock down contested threes. When push comes to shove, the Pack-Line defense is structured around the idea an opponent isn’t going to be able to hit enough threes to beat them. They want you to drive into defense, kick the ball out and shoot jumpers with a hand in your face. Teams that can do that are going to give them trouble.
"
There’s a reason Virginia has just one loss—to Duke—who managed to shoot 50.9 percent from the field, with Cook and Jones draining huge threes late in the game.
What’s Gone Wrong This Season
In three words: Justin Anderson’s finger.
The injury, which he suffered in the first half in a game against Louisville, has sidelined him since February 7. Virginia is still 3-0 over that stretch but barely squeaked past Wake Forest, 61-60.
Without Anderson, Virginia’s already pedestrian offense needs a cane to stay upright. Eammon Brennan of ESPN.com wrote:
"Losing Anderson isn't just about losing his shooting. He was also a potent slasher and a constant lob threat on the weak side. He is a great defender, maybe the best individual (certainly the most athletic) stopper on his team. Even if that weren't true, Anderson was so good from deep that he required defensive attention at all times.
"
How long can Virginia keep this up? The Cavs expect Anderson back in March, but how effective will he be?
Postseason Potential
It appears Virginia will earn one of the four No. 1 seeds.
It has the defense to go the distance, but can the offense meet the defense halfway? Much of that hinges on the return of Anderson.
Brennan chimed in:
"Offensively, though, the early returns are troubling. Some of it is a bad shooting stretch. Some of it is that Anderson isn't the one shooting those 3s. Some of it is spacing; some of it is new roles. Some of it might get figured out in the next few weeks. Some of it might linger until Anderson returns in March.
"
Defense travels well. How Virginia handles the ACC tournament may indicate just how postseason-ready Tony Bennett’s team is. Losing at home to Duke on January 31 exposed the Cavaliers just a bit.
All stats, unless otherwise noted, came from ESPN.com and are current as of February 18.
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