College Basketball Rankings 2014-15: Bleacher Report's Week 15 Top 25
We're exactly one month away from Selection Sunday.
You know what that means. Everyone's favorite made-up word in college basketball—"Bracketology"—will dominate the conversation over the next month.
What we know and what we don't know is pretty clear to me with a month left. Nine teams should battle for the top two lines. Those nine, who make up our top nine for the second straight week, are Kentucky, Virginia, Wisconsin, Duke, Gonzaga, Villanova, Kansas, Arizona and Utah. Any Bracketologist who says otherwise is trying too hard.
After that—the "what we don't know"—it gets messy with a lot of streaky teams who teeter-tooter between great and headed for disaster. It all depends on what week you're asking. And the bubble is all over the place.
I feel pretty confident those top nine will remain locked into the top nine spots in some order, and I feel pretty confident that the bubble will change daily from here on out.
Enjoy the madness.
Teams Dropped from Rankings: West Virginia (22), Stephen F. Austin (23), Oklahoma State (25)
Others Considered: West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Murray State
Our experts participate in weekly voting for B/R's Top 25. Once a vote is cast for a specific team, it's assigned a value—25 points for the No. 1 team in the rankings, 24 points for the second spot and so on. The point totals are then added up to create the Top 25.
25-21: Temple-Ohio State
1 of 17
25. Temple
Record: 19-7, 10-3
Previous rank: Unranked
The Owls have won seven straight and are on the good side of the bubble right now, but they could fall off real quick. Their next two games are on the road against the American's top two teams—SMU and Tulsa—and they still have a game left against Connecticut.
24. Providence
Record: 18-8, 8-5
Previous rank: Unranked
The Big East has beat up on each other, but the league is good enough to deserve three teams in the top 25. Providence edged out Georgetown—both are tied for third in the league—to be that third team this week. The Friars own the head-to-head advantage over the Hoyas, having swept the season series.
23. Michigan State
Record: 17-8, 8-4
Previous rank: Unranked
The Spartans have quietly hung around in the race to finish second behind Wisconsin in the Big Ten. Michigan State trails Maryland by just a half game—tied in the loss column—but Sparty's got a tough schedule ahead with four of six left on the road.
22. Butler
Record: 18-7, 8-4
Previous rank: 19
Villanova wing Darrun Hilliard ended Butler's five-game winning streak with 31 points and the game-winning three on Saturday at Hinkle Fieldhouse. But Butler should feel good with its current position. And look out in March because this team isn't much different from a Brad Stevens staple: stingy D, a few good three-point shooters and smart guard play.
21. Ohio State
Record: 19-7, 8-5
Previous rank: 18
Ohio State is 2-2 since Marc Loving was suspended. Loving returned on Saturday at Michigan State, but he played only five minutes and attempted just one shot in the loss. For the Buckeyes to get back on track, they need Loving to get back in the good graces of head coach Thad Matta.
20-16: Maryland-SMU
2 of 17
20. Maryland
Record: 21-5, 9-4
Previous rank: 24
Maryland is still in second place in the Big Ten, but there's reason to worry in College Park. The Terps are 4-3 over their last seven games and none of the wins have been convincing—they've won by an average of three points. And all three of the losses have come by double-digits.
19. Baylor
Record: 18-7, 6-6
Previous rank: 15
Rico Gathers has been one of the most productive big men in the country over the last month. In his last eight games, he's averaging 14.6 points and 14.9 rebounds. Saturday at Kansas ended a streak of four games with at least 15 boards for him.
18. North Carolina
Record: 18-7, 8-4
Previous rank: 13
The Tar Heels have the length and athleticism to be a great defensive team, but they're just not getting it done on that end. They've lost three of four, and in those four games, opponents averaged 77.5 points and scored 1.16 points per possession, per kenpom.com.
17. Oklahoma
Record: 17-8, 8-5
Previous rank: 16
Kansas State's Marcus Foster hit a game-winning three on Saturday to beat Oklahoma, but it should have been a game-tying three. K-State's Justin Edwards knocked down a three midway through the second half that should have been waved off—it came after the shot clock went off, but officials missed it. That's unfortunate for the Sooners, who had won five straight and came into the game as the hottest team in the Big 12.
16. SMU
Record: 21-5, 12-2
Previous rank: 20
A slow start tempered big preseason expectations for SMU, but Larry Brown's club is now living up to the hype. The Mustangs have won 11 of 12, and the average margin of victory in those 11 wins is a stellar 13.7 points.
15. Arkansas
3 of 17
Record: 20-5, 9-3 (31 points)
Previous rank: 21
Results since last poll: at Auburn (W 101-87); at Mississippi (W 71-70)
Games this week: vs. Missouri; at Mississippi State
This was a very important season for the state of the Arkansas program, and this team has come through. Arkansas has won seven of eight, and the one loss came by just one point on the road at Florida.
The Razorbacks are close to a lock for the NCAA tourney at this point, which will be a first under coach Mike Anderson. It will also be the first tourney appearance for the program since 2008.
This is a talented roster that could have a shot to make a run once they get there. Anderson's teams have typically represented themselves well in the postseason, as he is 8-6 in the NCAA tournament. A good run this year could help in recruiting and give the program some stability going forward.
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14. Wichita State
4 of 17
Record: 23-3, 13-1 (36 points)
Previous rank: 17
Results since last poll: vs. Indiana State (W 74-57); at Illinois State (W 68-62)
Games this week: at Southern Illinois; vs. Evansville
The Shockers are not as good as last season but don't be shocked if they end up going deeper in the NCAA tournament. Last year, they had the misfortune of getting Kentucky in the round of 32.
Two reasons to like Wichita State in March:
- The Shockers have veteran guards. Fred VanVleet, Ron Baker and Tekele Cotton are as trustworthy a backcourt as you're going to find in college basketball.
- Wichita State's success travels. Over the last five seasons, the Shockers are 70-19 away from home.
13. Louisville
5 of 17
Record: 20-5, 8-4 (36 points)
Previous rank: 11
Results since last poll: vs. Pittsburgh (W 69-56); vs. North Carolina State (L 74-65)
Games this week: at Syracuse; vs. Miami
The Cardinals are dominant against mediocre competition because their defensive pressure can swallow up shaky guard play. Against legit competition, however, Louisville hasn't been all that impressive this year.
The latest example was a home loss to North Carolina State, whose talent is better than its record. The Cards don't really have a signature win. Their best win this season was against North Carolina at home, and that's a game they trailed by 18. Their best win away from home is probably Indiana at Madison Square Garden.
No team is better at picking on the weak, but considering how they've looked against good teams, I would be wary of picking the Cards to go on a deep tourney run.
12. Notre Dame
6 of 17
Record: 22-4, 10-3 (44 points)
Previous rank: 14
Results since last poll: at Clemson (W 60-58)
Games this week: vs. Wake Forest; at Boston College
Notre Dame currently sits a half game ahead of Duke for second in the ACC standings.
Neither has a brutal schedule down the stretch, and if I had to guess, I'd say they'll end up tied. The Irish have just one NCAA tourney team left to play—at Louisville on March 4—and the second-most difficult game would be at home against Syracuse.
Let's say the Irish end up finishing in the top three, which is a pretty good bet. That would be the most impressive turnaround from last season of any team in the country. Last year, Notre Dame won just six conference games and finished in 11th place.
Assuming the Irish don't collapse, Mike Brey deserves some National Coach of the Year consideration, and Jerian Grant should be a first-team All-American.
11. Iowa State
7 of 17
Record: 18-6, 8-4 (45 points)
Previous rank: 10
Results since last poll: at Oklahoma (L 94-83); vs. West Virginia (W 79-59)
Games this week: at Oklahoma State; at Texas
The Cyclones currently have the seventh-best adjusted offensive efficiency in the country, per KenPom.com, and this would be the third straight season they'll finish in the top 10 nationally in that statistic.
Duke is the only other program during that stretch that can make that claim.
The man who deserves most of the credit is ISU coach Fred Hoiberg, but No. 2 on the list might just be his sophomore point guard Monte Morris.
Morris is leading the country in assist-to-turnover ratio (4.68) for the second straight season, and he put together a gem on Saturday against West Virginia with 19 points, five assists and just one turnover. Having just one giveaway against the Mountaineers' pressure is quite the accomplishment.
10. Northern Iowa
8 of 17
Record: 24-2, 13-1 (46 points)
Previous rank: 12
Results since last poll: vs. Illinois State (W 83-64); at Missouri State (68-57)
Games this week: at Loyola Chicago; vs. Bradley
Northern Iowa is one of the toughest teams to guard in the country because of its ability to score inside and out.
The Panthers are one of three teams in the country that rank in the top 17 in both two-point percentage and three-point percentage—Utah and Notre Dame are the others.
It's not just one or two shooters you have to lock in on either. The Panthers have six players in their rotation shooting better than 40 percent from deep and a seventh who has made 37.1 percent of his treys.
9. Utah
9 of 17
Record: 20-4, 10-2 (51 points)
Previous rank: 9
Results since last poll: vs. Stanford (W 75-59); vs. California (W 76-61)
Games this week: at Oregon State; at Oregon
The Utes arguably have the most to gain over the next month of any of the top nine teams.
Utah will get one more shot at Arizona, who the Utes are tied with in first place in the Pac-12. And that game will be at home for Utah. and that game is at home. The No. 2 seed in the West region will likely be either the Utes or the Wildcats, and neither team will want to be the one who ends up on the three line and out of the West.
The Feb. 28 rematch and the Pac-12 tourney will likely determine who gets that coveted No. 2 spot.
8. Arizona
10 of 17
Record: 22-3, 10-2 (55 points)
Previous rank: 8
Results since last poll: at Washington (W 86-62); at Washington State (86-59)
Games this week: vs. USC; vs. UCLA
The Pac-12 Player of the Year will likely go to either Utah's Delon Wright, Stanford's Chasson Randle or Arizona's Stanley Johnson, but Arizona point guard T.J. McConnell deserves some consideration.
McConnell has been consistently great in Pac-12 games. If you take away the Pac-12 opener, he's either had five assists or topped 20 points in every conference game. He's making 59.3 percent of his twos and 44.4 percent of his threes in conference games, and he's one of the best perimeter defenders in the conference and the country. His banner defensive game was just over two weeks ago when he had eight steals against Oregon State.
7. Kansas
11 of 17
Record: 21-4, 10-2 (56 points)
Previous rank: 7
Results since last poll: at Texas Tech (W 73-51); vs. Baylor (W 74-64)
Games this week: at West Virginia; vs. TCU
If the Jayhawks win on Monday at West Virginia, go ahead and start the printing presses on those t-shirts celebrating an 11th straight Big 12 title.
Kansas already has a two-game cushion on second-place Iowa State, and ISU has four road games left. After Monday's trip to Morgantown, KU will have just two road games left and one of those is at Kansas State, where KU has lost just three times since Bramlage Coliseum opened in 1988.
The Wildcats helped the Jayhawks on Saturday by knocking off Oklahoma, who fell to 8-5 in conference play. Had the Sooners remained at four losses, KU's season-finale trip to Norman could have been interesting. Now, it's tough to see anyone having a shot at even sharing the Big 12 title with KU.
6. Villanova
12 of 17
Record: 23-2, 10-2 (61 points)
Previous rank: 6
Results since last poll: at Providence (W 74-68); at Butler (W 68-65)
Games this week: vs. Seton Hall; at Marquette
Villanova got a huge road win on Saturday at Butler. The Wildcats are in a good spot to likely get a No. 2 seed in the tournament for the second straight season.
The consistency of the program over the last two years has been impressive, especially on the road. The Wildcats are now 16-4 over the last two seasons in true road games. That's tied with Virginia for the best winning percentage on the road among major-conference schools during that time.
5. Gonzaga
13 of 17
Record: 26-1, 14-0 (64 points)
Previous rank: 4
Results since last poll: vs. Loyola Marymount (W 80-51); vs. Pepperdine (W 56-48)
Games this week: at Pacific; at Saint Mary's
Gonzaga's NCAA tourney opponents should study the two games that Gonzaga played against Pepperdine this year.
The Zags have won 22 of their 26 wins by double-digits, and two of those single-digit games were against the Waves. If there's a trend in the two games, it's that Pepperdine was able to attack Gonzaga's interior defense.
That hasn't been a weakness this season for the Zags—their 41.7 percent FG percentage D ranks 11th nationally, per KenPom.com—but Pepperdine made 46 of its 85 two-point attempts (54.1 percent) in the two games.
4. Duke
14 of 17
Record: 22-3, 9-3 (66)
Previous rank: 5
Results since last poll: at Florida State (W 73-70); at Syracuse (W 80-72)
Games this week: vs. North Carolina; vs. Clemson
Duke is now 5-0 since Rasheed Sulaimon got booted.
The concern I had with Sulaimon's dismissal was how it would affect Duke's offense. Sulaimon provided scoring and reliable outside shooting off the bench.
So far, Duke's offense has been even slightly better without him. The Blue Devils are scoring 120.8 points per 100 possessions in the last five games, a small uptick from their season average efficiency of 120.2, per KenPom.com.
3. Wisconsin
15 of 17
Record: 23-2, 11-1 (69 points)
Previous rank: 3
Results since last poll: at Nebraska (W 65-55); vs. Illinois (W 68-49)
Games this week: at Penn State; vs. Minnesota
ESPN.com's Joe Lunardi currently has Wisconsin as a No. 2 seed in his latest bracket.
If the Badgers are able to win out, they have to be on the top line, right? The selection committee will have to consider that their second loss (at Rutgers) came without Frank Kaminsky.
Duke has the head-to-head feather in its cap, but the Blue Devils also have two losses (Miami and North Carolina State) to teams that could end up in the NIT, and one of those (Miami) was at home. Sure, Rutgers is a worst loss, but again, it came without Kaminsky.
The next few weeks will likely determine which teams gets the better seed, but if I had to bet, I'd go with the Badgers as the team more likely to end up on the top line.
2. Virginia
16 of 17
Record: 23-1, 11-1 (70 points)
Previous rank: 2
Results since last poll: at North Carolina State (W 51-47); vs. Wake Forest (W 61-60)
Games this week: vs. Pittsburgh; vs. Florida State
Virginia has won both of its games without star guard Justin Anderson, but the offense has struggled in his absence.
In the five halves that the Cavaliers have now been without Anderson, they've had an offensive efficiency of 95.2, compared to 112.6 for the season, per KenPom.com. The one area where Anderson has been most valuable to the offense is his outside shooting—he's a 48.4 percent three-point shooter—and that is, not surprisingly, where Virginia has struggled without him.
The Cavs are just 6-of-31 (19.4 percent) from deep since he got hurt. The schedule down the stretch isn't too difficult—Louisville is the only tourney team left—so Virginia should be able to win the ACC and get a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. But if Anderson is anything but 100 percent for the tourney, there will be reason to worry.
1. Kentucky
17 of 17
Record: 25-0, 12-0 (75 points)
Previous rank: 1
Results since last poll: at LSU (W 71-69); vs. South Carolina (W 77-43)
Games this week: at Tennessee; vs. Auburn
The most amazing part of Kentucky's season, to me, isn't that John Calipari's team has remained undefeated; it's the ridiculous defensive statistics that his team has maintained.
The Wildcats are on pace to set the defensive field-goal percentage record. They have held opponents to 33.8 percent shooting; Stanford's 1999-2000 team has the record (since 1978) at 35.2 percent.
If the NCAA kept track of effective field-goal percentage, the 'Cats would likely set that record too. They're holding opponents to an effective field-goal percentage of 38.1 percent, which is the best mark in the Ken Pomeroy era (since 2002). That's also better than the 1999-2000 Cardinals, who held opponents to a 39.6 effective field-goal percentage.
Kentucky also had the lowest defensive efficiency numbers—raw (80.9) and adjusted (84.3)—in the Pomeroy database. Kentucky's next three games (Tennessee, Auburn and Mississippi State) are against lousy offensive teams, so those numbers should only get better over the next few weeks.
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