2015 NFL Mock Draft: Best Team Fits and Predictions for Top Prospects

As the NFL Scouting Combine begins, draft prospects will see their stocks fluctuate wildly.  Most of that stems not from 40-yard dash times or bench-press marks but rather from anonymous leaks teams intentionally let out in order to try to manipulate the board to their liking.

Therefore, it's hard to trust much of what one hears around the draft.  Rather than trying to decipher the truth through the noise, it might be more useful to trust film evaluations, of both prospects and their potential teams, as this mock draft does:

Pick	Team	Selection
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Leonard Williams, DT, USC
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
4	Oakland Raiders	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
5	Washington Redskins	Randy Gregory, DE, Nebraska
6	New York Jets	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7	Chicago Bears	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
8	Atlanta Falcons	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
11	Minnesota Vikings	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
12	Cleveland Browns	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
13	New Orleans Saints	Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
14	Miami Dolphins	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
15	San Francisco 49ers	Dante Fowler, OLB, Florida
16	Houston Texans	Dorial Green-Beckham, Missouri
17	San Diego Chargers	Arik Armstead, DE, Oregon
18	Kansas City Chiefs	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pitt
19	Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo)	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Bud Dupree, DE, Kentucky
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
23	Detroit Lions	Malcolm Brown, DT, Texas
24	Arizona Cardinals	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
25	Carolina Panthers	La'el Collins, OT, LSU
26	Baltimore Ravens	Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin
27	Dallas Cowboys	Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA
28	Denver Broncos	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
29	Indianapolis Colts	Denzel Perryman, ILB, Miami
30	Green Bay Packers	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
31	Seattle Seahawks	Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn
32	New England Patriots	Jordan Phillips, DT, Oklahoma

While it's almost impossible to figure out when players will go off the board, it's not hard to imagine where they might fit best.  Using the mock above, let's highlight a trio of prospects who would represent especially excellent fits with their respective franchises.

Jameis Winston: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Separating off-field Winston from on-field Winston is impossible when discussing the former Heisman Trophy winner's draft stock.  Therefore, any consideration of what team he belongs with must also consider the locker room environment.

However, Tampa doesn't exactly have the best track record in this regard, coming off the disastrous and toxic Greg Schiano era and a highly disappointing 2-14 season under current head coach Lovie Smith.

But as NFL.com's Bucky Brooks opines, stability at offensive coordinator in 2015 could change the complexion of Tampa's offense, putting Winston in a better position to succeed:

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"When you think about Dirk Koetter and who he has traditionally played with -- pocket quarterbacks," Brooks said on NFL AM Wednesday. "When I look at Tampa Bay, I try to connect the dots. It seems like a match made in heaven because Dirk Koetter knows how to play with those kinds of guys under center."

Koetter, of course, is the new face in the Buccaneers building, having just come from the same role with the Atlanta Falcons. His quarterback there, Matt Ryan, couldn't be more of a pocket passer and enjoyed a successful stretch under Koetter -- despite inconsistencies in both pass protection and the Atlanta running game -- for three seasons.

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Smith's first offensive coordinator choice, Jeff Tedford, missed the entire 2014 season with an undisclosed personal issue, while his replacement, 35-year-old Marcus Arroyo, was overmatched in the interim role.  Koetter should provide stability, which will take the focus off the coaching staff and put Winston in a position to take advantage of Tampa's impressive receiving corps.

It has become popular to write off Winston because of his off-field issues, the latest of which is a photo that appears to depict him in less-than-flattering shape.  But that type of "hot take" reaction puts one in danger of ignoring Winston's desirable on-field attributes, particularly his precocious pocket presence and his grasp of pre-snap reads.  

Some draftniks don't believe the public perception matches Winston's true talents:

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Jameis Winston. RT @PuneetJain64: who is the most underrated QB in this class?

— Matt Miller (@nfldraftscout) February 11, 2015"

With a new offensive coordinator alongside weapons such as Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins, the Bucs give Winston a better chance to succeed than, say, the Tennessee Titans or the New York Jets, two other potential suitors.  

Amari Cooper: Oakland Raiders

Cooper to Oakland is a popular sentiment, as the Raiders would appear rather irresponsible if they didn't arm Derek Carr with a better supporting cast after a promising rookie season.  Oakland will surely utilize some of its $49.5 million in cap space to ink a true No. 1 from this year's impressive free-agent receiver crop, but that shouldn't stop the Raiders from selecting the Alabama product fourth overall.

When building up a barren receiving corps, it's nice to start with a jack-of-all-trades who can serve as the primary target on virtually any route combination.  As FootballGuys.com's Matt Harmon discovered when breaking down tape from five of Cooper's 2014 games, the Heisman finalist is already one of the most polished route-runners in the class:

People often get caught up in physical tools during draft season, and Cooper may not possess the freakish athleticism of Dorial Green-Beckham or the size-speed combination of Kevin White.  Nevertheless, it's not hard to envision Cooper as the high-efficiency chain-mover while the Raiders surround him with their beloved big-play deep threats.

The Raiders do have plenty of needs, and it wouldn't be surprising to see them turn to one of the impressive edge-rushers instead.  But Carr needs a reliable primary weapon, and the pro-ready Cooper deserves a chance as a primary target in an offense.  

Todd Gurley: Arizona Cardinals

This is a bit of an off-the-board pick, as most mock drafts have the Cards selecting either running back Melvin Gordon or an inside linebacker.  But Gurley stood out during the collegiate season as the country's most talented running back, a sentiment that should gain steam if his knee checks out after a torn ACL in November.

Though Arizona has Andre Ellington entering his third year, Ellington visibly wore down as the team's workhorse back.  After emerging as one of the league's most efficient backs, the 5'10", 200-pound Ellington suffered a startling drop in per-carry effectiveness last season:

Season	Yards per Carry	15+ Yard Runs	DVOA	DVOA rank
2013	5.5	12	17.5%	4 (out of 47)
2014	3.3	10	-13.3%	35 (out of 43)

Thus, Gurley might immediately take up the majority of the carries and relegate Ellington to passing-down duties, roles that would probably serve both backs better.  Gurley has received comparisons to three-down backs Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch, and scouts have highlighted him as a prospect who jumps out on tape far more than his peers:

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Todd Gurley is comfortably the most enjoyable prospect to watch this year.

— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) February 13, 2015"

With Larry Fitzgerald's decline and potential departure this offseason, the Cardinals offense is screaming for another playmaker to buttress average quarterback play.  Gurley's knee injury probably limits some of his rookie-year explosiveness, but Arizona would provide him with an opportunity to become one of the league's signature backs in due time.