NCAA Tournament 2015: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams at Week 14

Warning: You are about to read about the rising and falling stocks of teams on the bubble of college basketball's 2015 NCAA tournament.

Side effects may include nausea, uncontrollable grinding of teeth, ire over bad losses and the urge to petition the selection committee to immediately contract the field to 48 teams.

Most likely, though, you'll experience the uneasy feeling in the pit of your stomach that comes with the knowledge that you're one month away from deciding whether some of these teams are capable of pulling off some upsets.

Based on games from the past two weeks and how they have changed where these teams or groups of teams stand in the national hierarchy, we've come up with five that have most improved their stock and five that evidently really don't want to play in the tournament.

Please note that this is not meant to be a full list of teams currently on the bubble. The bubble is shrinking on an almost daily basis, but at least 50 teams are neither locks for the NCAA tournament nor hopelessly eliminated from it.

Rather, these teams are the biggest risers and fallers over the course of the past two weeks. So if you can't find your favorite team, that doesn't necessarily mean it isn't smack dab on the bubble. What it means is it simply hasn't done much to change its status in the past 14 days.

Stock Down: Old Dominion Monarchs

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There are moderately forgivable losses in Conference USA play, and then there are the losses Old Dominion has been suffering over the past few weeks.

The Monarchs dropped into the danger zone with back-to-back losses to Middle Tennessee and UAB in late January. After the loss to UTSA on Thursday night, it's nearly impossible to envision a scenario in which they still earn an at-large bid.

It's a shame, too. For the first six weeks or so, this was one of the best mid-major programs in the nation. Old Dominion scored a neutral-court win over LSU and home wins over VCU, Richmond and Georgia State. The Monarchs entered conference play with a 12-1 record and were well on their way to a bid.

Not so much anymore after four consecutive road losses.

Winning each remaining game would give them a road win over UTEP and home wins over Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky, but it probably wouldn't be enough. Obviously, that depends on where the "cut line" ends up falling with bubble teams either making their resumes look better or worse, but it's looking like "auto bid or bust" right now for the Monarchs.

Stock Up: Ole Miss Rebels

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For the Rebels, it has been a tale of two seasons.

One month into the year, they had already suffered home losses to Charleston Southern, TCU and Western Kentucky. They had some relatively quality wins away from home over Cincinnati, Oregon and Creighton, but those wins didn't even remotely outweigh those losses.

In SEC play, though, Ole Miss has been a difficult team to beat, as first evidenced by the overtime game against Kentucky. And over the past four weeks, the Rebels have strung together enough wins to find themselves pretty comfortably in the projected field.

They’re 6-1 since mid-January with two wins over Florida, a road win over Arkansas and a home win over Texas A&M—also known as taking care of business against conference foes that either are currently or once were on the bubble.

As a result, they’re 17-7 and in second place in what could be a five- or six-bid league.

Stock Down: Seton Hall Pirates

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Apparently, the Pirates took offense to the fact that they weren't listed as a "stock down" team two weeks ago, because lately, they've shown they don't want any part of the NCAA tournament.

Since those supposedly season-changing wins over St. John's and Villanova, Seton Hall has lost seven of 10 games, including being swept by DePaul, losing at home to Marquette and getting slaughtered at home by Georgetown on Tuesday.

Even after those aforementioned nice wins, this was still a fringe tournament team. Seton Hall's best nonconference win came at home against George Washington by a slim margin, which isn't saying much.

What's more, sophomore Jaren Sina—who was averaging more than 32 minutes per game—left the program Wednesday night.

Sina told Jerry Carino of the Asbury Park Press, "I tried my best. I think I was a good teammate. I've always been positive. I've always worked hard. I always gave it 100 percent. It's not a good situation for me right now. At the end of the day, I think it's best for me and my family."

So, if the Pirates were a bubble team seven losses and one starting point guard ago, they might be lucky to make the NIT when all is said and done.

Stock Up: Boise State Broncos

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Look solely at Boise State's resume—39 RPI, two bad losses (Loyola IL and Utah State), one RPI Top 150 nonconference win—and the natural inclination is to see a team that's probably on the wrong side of the bubble.

But that's why resumes don't tell the whole story, because injuries played a huge factor in many of the Broncos' losses. 

James Webb III was hurt early and failed to score a point until the Broncos' sixth game of the season. Once he finally started coming around, they lost senior Anthony Drmic to a season-ending ankle injury just three weeks into the year. Nick Duncan missed a few games shortly thereafter, and senior Derrick Marks was out when Boise State started a four-game losing streak in late December.

Since mid-January, however, Boise State has been healthy and surging, as noted by Raphielle Johnson for College Basketball Talk. The Broncos have won eight in a row, which includes five of their six best wins of the season.

Judging this team by its entire body of work as opposed to simply how it has played in the past month will be the difference of a few seed lines, but the Broncos have done enough at this point that it probably wouldn't keep them from making the tournament.

Stock Down: Davidson Wildcats

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If there was a formula for ensuring a spot as a team with a falling stock, losing back-to-back games against teams outside of the RPI Top 100 is probably it.

For quite some time, the compelling thing about Davidson's resume was that—despite a lack of marquee wins or so much as a single nonconference win worth mentioning—the Wildcats played well against North Carolina, Virginia and (healthy) VCU and hadn't suffered a single despicable loss.

After a road loss to Saint Joseph's and a home loss to Saint Bonaventure, however, the last part of that statement has been sent flying out the window.

They aren't dead by any means, though.

They still have two games left against George Washington, the home rematch with VCU and a pair of road games against La Salle and Rhode Island. But they probably need to win at least three of those games in order to get their computer numbers (70 RPI, 173 SOS) back to a point where they even show up on our at-large radar.

Stock Up: Big Ten

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Against seemingly all odds, the Big Ten is suddenly in a position to send more teams to the NCAA tournament than any other conference.

Without a doubt, Maryland is to thank.

The Terrapins rank 14th in RPI despite doling out quality wins to Indiana, Iowa, Illinois and Ohio State in the past five weeks. And because the Terrapins rank so highly, the fact that Michigan State was swept by them doesn't even matter.

Throw in Wisconsin as a stone-cold lock and RPI boost for the rest of the conference and seven Big Ten teams are ranked in the RPI Top 50.

On top of those seven, Purdue (RPI: 69) has been on the rise with wins over Indiana, Iowa and Ohio State in the past three weeks, and even Minnesota (RPI: 72) is sneaking onto the fringe of the bubble discussion with recent wins over Iowa, Illinois and Purdue.

There's bound to be some cannibalization in the remaining month until Selection Sunday, but by some kind of sorcery, it seems every Big Ten team with fewer than 10 losses is in equal or better position than it was two weeks ago.

Stock Down: ACC's Middle Tier

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While just about everyone in the Big Ten seems to be bolstering their resume, those teams are getting even more room to play with as each team in the ACC's middle tier continually shoots itself in the foot.

For starters, there was Syracuse's self-imposed postseason ban less than two weeks ago. The knee-jerk response was "Big whoop. The Orange weren't making the tournament anyway." But they were much closer to the projected field than most cared to realize. Granted, their remaining schedule is nothing short of a gauntlet, but Syracuse was arguably the ACC's best chance for a sixth bid.

Now that that's no longer a possibility, what's left?

Miami's four losses in the past five games and four total losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100?

North Carolina State's 11 total losses and six losses in the eight games since beating Duke?

Pittsburgh's two RPI Top 100 wins and two RPI Sub 150 losses?

Clemson's early losses to Gardner-Webb, Winthrop and Rutgers?

Florida State's 12 losses and zero RPI Top 50 wins?

As Ken Pomeroy casually noted on Twitter last week, Georgia Tech might be the sixth-best team in the ACC, and the Yellow Jackets are 11-13.

Don't be surprised if the ACC gets five teams on the top four lines and nothing else.

Stock Up: BYU Cougars

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Margin of victory isn't officially taken into consideration during the selection process, as it isn't a component of the RPI calculations.

But come on, we have to make an exception for BYU, right?

The Cougars have eight losses, but not a single one of those was by more than seven points. They pushed San Diego State to double overtime on a neutral court, lost in overtime to Purdue on a neutral court, came within four points of beating Utah and lost to Gonzaga by a mere seven points.

More important than those close losses, though, BYU picked up a 22-point win over Saint Mary's on Thursday night, officially reintroducing itself to the bubble. It doesn't quite put the Cougars into the projected field, but their chances of earning an at-large bid are at least 20 times as good as they would have been if they had lost that game.

The reality check, though, is that it's highly unlikely the Cougars will dance without beating Gonzaga—either on the road on Feb. 28 to stay in the at-large discussion or on a neutral court in the WCC championship game to earn the automatic bid. Because without either of those key wins, we're talking about a team that not only blew a ton of chances, but has also failed to win a single game on the road against an RPI Top 150 team.

Stock Down: Stanford Cardinal

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Two weeks ago, Stanford was in excellent shape. The Cardinal were 15-5 with a nice road win over Texas and only one bad loss at DePaul. It was anything but a lock, but compared to a lot of the resumes we were looking at the time, there wasn't much reason to complain.

That's no longer the case.

Stanford has lost three of its last four games, including a bad loss at Washington State and a not-great home loss to UCLA. Its resume now shows eight losses with varying degrees of acceptability and only that one win against a team that is likely to make the tournament as an at-large bid—and it's not that difficult to make the case that Texas is a bubble team right now.

At a certain point, an overtime win over a No. 8 or No. 9 seed only goes so far, and that point was probably two losses ago.

In just two weeks, the Cardinal dropped from a No. 7 seed to a perilous position on the bubble. They still have an important home game against Oregon and road games against Arizona and Arizona State to prove their mettle, but they're likely headed for a second consecutive sweaty Selection Sunday.

Stock Up: AAC Teams Not Named Tulsa

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Tulsa really put us in a bind for a few weeks. The Golden Hurricane have losses to Oral Roberts and D-II SE Oklahoma State and virtually nothing positive to show from the nonconference portion of their season. But they were 10-0 and in first place in the American Athletic Conference.

We're not sure anyone ever truly bought Tulsa as a tournament team, but because at-large candidates like Cincinnati, SMU and Temple were behind the Golden Hurricane in the conference standings, we foolishly devalued their resumes, whether intentionally or unintentionally.

Take Tulsa out of the picture after consecutive losses by double digits, though, and we like what we see in this conference.

SMU hasn't been beaten by anyone other than Cincinnati since Week 2 of the regular season. In addition to that sweep, the Bearcats have a strong win over San Diego State and three other RPI Top 50 wins. Temple has yet to be beaten at full strength—the Owls didn't have Jesse Morgan or Devin Coleman in their first four losses, and Will Cummings was hurt for the last three losses.

And might we be so bold as to suggest defending national champions Connecticut as a team on the bubble of the bubble? With their 25-point desolation of Tulsa on Thursday night, the Huskies improved to 14-9 with a 3-7 record versus RPI Top 50.

They aren't in the field yet, but if they pick up a quality win at SMU on Saturday, there's a good chance the Huskies sneak into a few projected fields on Monday.

Don't say we didn't warn you.

Statistics on the following slides courtesy of ESPN.com, KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com and are current through the start of play on Friday, Feb. 13. 

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.