Meet the 10 Teams Who Actually Have a Chance to Win the College Football Playoff
We’re smack-dab in the middle of February. Much of the nation is covered in snow or, at the very least, hampered by icy-cold temperatures. The 2014 college football season wrapped up just over a month ago, and we’re still six-plus months away from the 2015 regular season kicking off.
Here’s the truth, though: College football season never really ends. We go from recruiting to winter workouts to spring practice to summer workouts to preseason practice to the regular season to the postseason, and then we start all over again. It’s never too early to speculate about college football, as anyone who's devoured a “too early top 25” the morning after the national title game would admit. A poll of ESPN analysts suggests that Ohio State and TCU are the most popular picks to make the 2015 College Football Playoff.
That said, only a handful of teams have the talent and depth to survive a 14- to 15-game grind and win the College Football Playoff. Some proved their mettle in 2014, while others have stockpiled the talent and experience to make the leap in 2015. Here’s a look at the teams who truly have a chance to win the College Football Playoff. These teams were selected due to their returning starters, talent and depth, as well as talent acquired in the 2015 recruiting class, and on the strength of their recent track records within the last five seasons.
Alabama
1 of 10
Alabama is one of the rare programs that could consider 2014 a disappointment even though it won 12 games and an SEC title. Nick Saban and co.'s season will be remembered for a surprising Sugar Bowl loss to Ohio State that ended the Tide’s run two wins short of their ultimate goal—a national championship.
With three title rings in eight seasons at Alabama, Saban has set the bar exceedingly high, and 2015 will be no different. Sure, the Crimson Tide returns only nine starters and suffered serious losses to the NFL draft, including All-American safety Landon Collins, Biletnikoff Award-winning wide receiver Amari Cooper and fleet tailback T.J. Yeldon.
But that’s nothing new to Saban. He doesn’t rebuild. He reloads. Offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin ran a system that capitalized on Cooper’s talents last fall, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if it revolved around Derrick Henry (990 rushing yards, 11 touchdowns in 2014) this season.
Alabama must replace starting quarterback Blake Sims, who threw for 3,487 yards and 28 touchdowns last fall. Senior Jake Coker will be the favorite, but he’ll have to survive a QB derby that will include sophomore Cooper Bateman, redshirt freshman David Cornwell and talented recruit Blake Barnett. The Tide has holes to fill on both sides of the ball, but given consistently strong recruiting classes, talent is waiting in the wings to make a run.
Auburn
2 of 10
2014 was hardly a year to remember on the Plains. Coming off a surprising appearance in the BCS national title game, Auburn took a step backward, slipping to 8-5 with a poor defensive effort. Coach Gus Malzahn fired defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson after the defense allowed 26.7 points per game, No. 63 nationally, and allowed at least 31 points to its last six SEC opponents. But he made an impressive hire, snagging former Florida coach Will Muschamp as the new defensive coordinator.
The Tigers return 12 starters. They lose graduated quarterback Nick Marshall and the SEC’s leading rusher in Cameron Artis-Payne. However, Jeremy Johnson is a very capable replacement, and junior college tailback signee Jovon Robinson should be ready to carry the load in the backfield.
Johnson will throw to D’haquille Williams, who spurned NFL interest and should be one of the SEC’s top deep threats and receivers. There are questions in Auburn’s secondary, but the return of defensive end Carl Lawson (who had a torn ACL) will bolster a strong defensive line.
If Johnson can keep the hurry-up, no-huddle offense humming and Muschamp gets more out of the defense than Ellis Johnson did, Auburn is fully capable of another national championship run.
Baylor
3 of 10
Baylor had a bittersweet 2014 season. The Bears had the nation’s top offense, averaging 48.2 points per game, but felt snubbed by the College Football Playoff despite an 11-1 regular-season record. A Cotton Bowl meltdown that saw a 20-point fourth-quarter lead turn into a 42-41 loss to Michigan State didn’t help matters, either.
But while Art Briles lost quarterback Bryce Petty to graduation and offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery to the Tulsa head coaching job, he and the Bears remain in an excellent position to contend for a national title. Baylor returns 17 starters, with sophomore Seth Russell (who had 804 passing yards, eight touchdowns and an interception while backing up Petty) set to run the offense.
What’s more, bruising tailback Shock Linwood (1,252 yards, 16 touchdowns) returns, as do the top two wideouts in KD Cannon (1,030 receiving yards, eight touchdowns) and Corey Coleman (1,119 yards, 11 scores). The defense will be keyed by brutish defensive end Shawn Oakman, and all five offensive line starters will return.
Baylor will have to travel to Kansas State, Oklahoma State and TCU to close 2015, but with Kendal Briles stepping in as offensive coordinator, the Bears have the talent and scheme to win the national championship.
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Clemson
4 of 10
Dabo Swinney has quietly turned Clemson into one of the nation’s best, most consistent programs. Over the last four seasons, the Tigers have put together four consecutive 10-win seasons with one ACC title, ending seasons with bowl wins over the likes of LSU, Ohio State and Oklahoma. Now, Swinney and co. are poised to take the next step toward a College Football Playoff berth and the program’s first national title since 1981.
Clemson added one of the nation’s top recruiting classes to a roster that returns 10 starters, including seven on offense. Quarterback Deshaun Watson was held back by knee and hand injuries, but when he was on the field he was a sight to behold, throwing for 14 touchdowns against two interceptions. If he is healthy following ACL surgery, the offense won’t miss a beat despite the departure of offensive coordinator Chad Morris (who left to become SMU’s head coach).
He has excellent receivers in Artavis Scott and Mike Williams, and freshmen Deon Cain and Ray Ray McCloud should make an immediate impact. There are concerns on defense, where only three starters return, none on the defensive line. But defensive end Shaq Lawson and 247Sports 5-star defensive tackle signee Christian Wilkins should cushion the blow.
The Tigers’ young defensive depth must step forward, but defensive coordinator Brent Venables, who guided the nation’s top defense last fall, has shown his skill. If the defense finds its way, the Tigers have the pieces for a title run.
Georgia
5 of 10
2014 was as disappointing as a 10-win season could be for Georgia fans. Despite their record, they didn’t win the SEC East after losing to rivals Florida, Georgia Tech and South Carolina. They did finish the season with a Belk Bowl rout of Louisville.
That said, it’s impossible to count Mark Richt’s group out of the national title chase given the returning talent. The Bulldogs return 13 starters, led by standout tailback Nick Chubb, who emerged from Todd Gurley’s shadow to rush for 1,547 yards and 14 touchdowns.
Georgia also returns six defensive starters who should improve in Jeremy Pruitt’s second season as defensive coordinator. Last fall, the Dawgs allowed 20.7 points per game, No. 16 nationally. They’ll return serious talent on that side of the ball, including linebackers Lorenzo Carter, Leonard Floyd and Jordan Jenkins.
Quarterback is a question following Hutson Mason’s graduation, with Faton Bauta, Jacob Park and Brice Ramsey competing for the job under the watchful eye of new offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer.
If Georgia can get consistent play at quarterback and learn how to close games, this could be the season Richt breaks through for a national title.
Ohio State
6 of 10
Here’s the scary thing about Ohio State’s 2014 national championship run: It might have happened a year early. The Buckeyes entered the season with inexperience and issues, all of which were exacerbated following Braxton Miller’s season-ending shoulder injury and an early loss to Virginia Tech. They ended it by powering through the inaugural College Football Playoff and physically beating Alabama and Oregon.
This season, Urban Meyer’s sights are firmly set on a repeat. The Buckeyes return 14 starters and, save a spring transfer from Miller, have the nation’s most unique quarterback situation. Star sophomore J.T. Barrett is returning from a fractured ankle to take on Miller and big-armed Cardale Jones, who finished the championship push.
Ohio State returns bruising tailback Ezekiel Elliott, who emerged as a star with 1,878 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. They also have unanimous All-American defensive end Joey Bosa, one of the game’s top defensive linemen.
There are questions about replacing leading receiver Devin Smith as well as defensive stalwarts like defensive tackle Michael Bennett, linebacker Steve Miller and corner Doran Grant. Still, Meyer and his program have the depth to roll through the Big Ten, make the College Football Playoff and grind their way to another national title.
Oregon
7 of 10
Over the past decade, Oregon has become one of college football’s elite programs. The Ducks have made their way to the precipice of a national crown but haven’t taken the final step. In 2010, Auburn’s final-play field goal dealt Oregon a 22-19 national title game defeat. Last month, Ohio State and Ezekiel Elliott ran the Ducks off the field at AT&T Stadium.
Don’t expect Mark Helfrich’s group to take much of a step back this fall. Despite losing Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Marcus Mariota, All-America cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu and standout tackle Jake Fisher, among others, Oregon will return 13 starters this fall. One of the most interesting questions surrounds Mariota’s replacement.
Jeff Lockie, Morgan Mahalak and Ty Griffin were expected to compete for the job, but Eastern Washington star quarterback Vernon Adams raised eyebrows when he announced plans to transfer to Oregon as a graduate student.
Oregon still has a talented, deep backfield led by tailback Royce Freeman (1,365 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns as a freshman). Tyler Johnstone should step into Fisher’s shoes at left tackle. The Ducks have a major early test at Michigan State in the season’s second week, but with Scott Frost calling the plays, don’t expect much of a drop-off. Oregon will contend for a College Football Playoff spot and a national title again.
Southern California
8 of 10
The post-Pete Carroll era hasn’t been an easy one for Southern California. Under Carroll, the Trojans put together a seven-year streak of 10-win seasons. But following his departure and subsequent NCAA sanctions, the program slipped, garnering only two 10-win seasons over the last six years.
But the NCAA cloud appears to be easing under Steve Sarkisian’s watch. The Trojans won nine games in 2014, including a rousing Holiday Bowl win over Nebraska. And they return 15 starters, led by quarterback Cody Kessler, who threw for 3,826 yards with 39 touchdowns and five interceptions. Talented wide receiver Nelson Agholor departed for the NFL, as did tailback Buck Allen. Defensive end Leonard Williams could be the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft and will be tough to replace.
However, Sarkisian signed a highly thought-of recruiting class ranked No. 2 nationally by 247Sports. It was the program’s first full class since NCAA sanctions. Receiver JuJu Smith (54 receptions, 724 yards, five scores) will be relied on more heavily. Versatile Adoree’ Jackson can play all over the field. If this group can learn how to close out games, it’ll be a national title contender for sure.
TCU
9 of 10
If there was a legit argument for expanding the College Football Playoff from four to eight teams, the loudest voice came from Fort Worth, Texas. TCU made the nation’s most impressive rebound, going from 4-8 in 2013 to 11-1 in 2014 and just missing the four-team playoff.
The Horned Frogs made their final argument in the Peach Bowl, giving Ole Miss a 42-3 whipping that left fans wanting more from Trevone Boykin and the Air Raid offense. TCU averaged 46.5 points per game, second-best nationally.
The Horned Frogs return 16 starters, including 10 on offense. TCU has won without highly-rated recruits, as ESPN's Chris Low notes. Coach Gary Patterson says his program has a certain blue-collar mentality.
"I tell people all the time, 'Yeah, we'd love to recruit a four- or five-star player, but we want him to have a two-star mentality or even a walk-on mentality, somebody that's going to keep rolling up his sleeves and not be happy with where he is. Those kids have a chance to be a lot more successful if they approach it that way, and we have a lot better chance to develop them and fit them into our system.
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There are some questions on defense, where linebackers Paul Dawson and Marcus Mallet combined for 236 tackles last fall. However, if Boykin and the offense keep humming, the schedule is more than favorable enough for him to win a Heisman and help the Frogs leap into serious title contention.
UCLA
10 of 10
One year ago, UCLA was a dark-horse College Football Playoff contender, but the Bruins never quite found their way into the playoff chase. They won 10 games, but they didn’t win their Pac-12 division and finished the season with an Alamo Bowl win over Kansas State.
Despite talented quarterback Brett Hundley’s departure for the NFL, the Bruins are positioned to succeed in 2015. They will return 18 starters and a backloaded roster that features 50 freshmen and sophomores who are a year more experienced. Leading tackler Eric Kendricks will be hard to replace, but two-way player Myles Jack provides punch on both sides of the ball.
If the Bruins can get a competent replacement for Hundley, they should be able to take the leap to national title contender. That’ll fall on the shoulders of either Jerry Neuheisel or talented incoming freshman Josh Rosen, an excellent pocket passer. Jim Mora Jr.’s name has been a regular on the coaching carousel, but with this roster, why would he leave?
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