Despite Injury, Todd Gurley Is Among 2015 NFL Draft's Elite
Todd Gurley isn't expected to be a top pick in this year's draft.
If you explore different mock drafts from various NFL draft experts, you will find that Gurley's landing spot ranges from the top 10 to the second round. The majority of mockers view him as a late first-round pick or an early second-round pick.
Bleacher Report's very own Matt Miller has Gurley going 29th overall, to the Indianapolis Colts. Rotoworld's Josh Norris has Gurley landing in a similar range as the Dallas Cowboys' pick at 27th overall. Dane Brugler gave Gurley to the Arizona Cardinals at 24th overall in his most recent mock draft for CBS Sports.
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Despite those projections, the Georgia prospect is arguably the most talented player in the class.
Gurley is expected to fall in the first round for a couple of reasons. Most significantly, he is a running back. Over the past two seasons, no running backs have gone in the first round of the draft. That is more evidence that the value of the position has dropped in the pros.
Secondly, Gurley tore his ACL during his final season in college, so there is uncertainty about both his long-term health and his immediate effectiveness. Thirdly, this year's running back class appears to be stacked with talent that could be found in the latter rounds. Much like last year's wide receiver class, teams will feel like they can find similar value later on.
Positional value is an interesting concept in the NFL.
It's applied generally to each position as a whole, yet the impact of each individual player can differ greatly. Even in today's pass-heavy NFL, a truly great running back can make a huge difference to an offense. Players such as Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, Le'Veon Bell and Jamaal Charles prove that regularly.
Durability question marks are always significant when it comes to NFL prospects, but even more so with running backs.
However, a torn ACL isn't what it used to be. Advancements in medical science and practices are continuing to push the injury toward the level of an inconvenience rather than a devastation. Many horror stories still exist, but both Peterson and Charles act as examples of backs who recovered pre-injury form in the NFL after an ACL tear.
Whenever you are considering investing a first round pick in a player, you must consider alternative options.
It's true that this year's running back class offers outstanding variety and quality beyond just the top backs. Players such as Melvin Gordon, Duke Johnson, Jay Ajayi, Ameer Abdullah, Tevin Coleman, T.J. Yeldon, Mike Davis, David Cobb and many more could be quality NFL players. With that said, none appear to offer the same elite potential as Gurley.
What separates Gurley is how well-rounded he is.
Physicality
Although listed at 6'1" and 226 pounds, Gurley carries a slender frame. He doesn't appear to have any excess weight working against him. Because of this, he is able to consistently punish defenders in different situations and from different starting points.
With bigger backs who break tackles at the college level, it's always important to distinguish how they break tackles.
All too often, bigger backs need space to build up momentum before initiating contact with defenders. Gurley doesn't have this limitation. Instead, he can break tackles from a standing start when met behind the line of scrimmage on a regular basis.
Marshawn Lynch is the best big back in the NFL right now. Lynch doesn't simply run over defenders with his power. Even though he can, he also shows off outstanding balance and technique at the point of contact to negate tackle attempts as quickly as possible.
Gurley shows off similar movement skills and power to Lynch against college opponents.
On this play, Gurley is able to brush off the tackle attempt from Clemson defensive end Vic Beasley. Beasley isn't big for a defensive lineman, but he still has an opportunity to tackle Gurley while the back is moving sideways behind the line of scrimmage.
Gurley hasn't built up any momentum, and he can't simply lower his shoulder to run through the defender. Instead, he shows off outstanding balance, technique and upper-body strength to brush Beasley away with his right hand while carrying the ball in his left.
Through the whole movement, Gurley barely lost any speed. He brushed Beasley away and accelerate downfield in one motion.
The ability to make defenders miss behind the line of scrimmage in different ways is vital for success in the NFL. It's part of what allows Lynch to make his offensive line look much better than it actually is on a regular basis.
At Georgia, Gurley showed off all of these positive traits with great consistency.
When working against linebackers and defensive linemen, Gurley often forced defenses to gang-tackle him before they could bring him down. Therefore, it's no surprise that once he gets into the open field, it's almost impossible for defenders to take him down with arm tackles.
On this play, Gurley runs through three tackle attempts before he is brought down.
The first comes from an outside linebacker who runs back in from the sideline. Gurley appears to simply power through his tackle attempt with his left foot. The second is a safety who comes across from the middle of the field, but the running back fluidly adjusts to push him out of his way.
In the open field, the cornerback has no chance of tackling Gurley so he essentially punches one of his legs.
Gurley stumbles, but he is just recovering his balance as a defender in pursuit jumps on top of him to bring him down. Having a back who can move at this speed, with his size and power, is very valuable in the NFL as defenses continue to look to smaller, faster defenders.
There isn't a more powerful running back in this class, and there may not have been one in any draft since Adrian Peterson entered the league.
He has the ideal combination of power, size and strength to be a three-down back in today's NFL. His relatively slender frame will allow him to adjust at the tackle point to avoid hits the way Lynch does. But it won't prevent him from dolling out significant punishment to wear down defenses over four quarters every week.
When you throw in his balance and short-area quickness, it's hard to call Gurley anything but a freak.
Footwork and Vision
Every potential first-round pick is compared to Trent Richardson nowadays. The Indianapolis Colts back was widely considered a special prospect before he was drafted third overall in 2012. At Alabama, Richardson dominated opposing defenses with his sheer power and explosiveness.
In the NFL, that power and explosiveness was much less effective because of Richardson's poor vision and a lack of quickness. Because of Gurley's size and running style, the comparisons to Richardson, as well as the attached concerns, are even easier to make.
Sure, Gurley could bust in the NFL. Plenty of prospects do. But if Gurley busts in the NFL, it won't have anything to do with Trent Richardson. This year's top running back needs to be evaluated on his own merits. His tape needs to be viewed the same way any other running back's tape would be viewed. The hype shouldn't be muted simply because a completely different prospect busted this one time.
Richardson is held as an example against drafting running backs in the first round simply because front offices don't value the running back position enough in the first place, not because it makes any kind of sense.
Gurley is a very agile runner when working between the tackles. He shows off very quick, precise feet that allow him to run with balance while manipulating defenders in front of him. He played behind an offensive line that was regularly impressive at Georgia, but he made his blocking better with his movement also.
This play has been slowed down to highlight Gurley's footwork and subtle adjustments as he reads the play developing in front of him.
Both the left inside linebacker and the right inside linebacker come unblocked at the line of scrimmage. Gurley initially anticipates the left inside linebacker working downfield, which forces him to adjust the angle of his run slightly toward his left guard.
At the point where his left guard began the play, the right inside linebacker is arriving. Both inside linebackers are unblocked, but there is a small gap between them that Gurley can attack if he has anticipated it.
Gurley changes the length of his stride as soon as he accelerates to the second level. This means that neither linebacker can touch him despite both players making aggressive, impressive moves to get to the line of scrimmage quickly.
That kind of anticipation, precision, balance and burst is rare for a back of Gurley's dimensions. He is able to cut through the middle of the line like Ahmad Bradshaw or LeSean McCoy on their best days.
One of the constant positives for Gurley's vision is his ability to anticipate and read cutback opportunities. Gurley finds running lanes without taking unnecessary steps, so he can attack space on the second level.
Against Florida on this occasion, Gurley quickly recognized that he had nowhere to go on the left side of the offense, so he turned back toward his right tackle.
His right tackle is still standing and engaged with the defensive end, but the defensive end is pushing him backward with his arms extended. As Gurley turns, the defensive end has his eyes on the back past the right tackle's inside shoulder. Therefore, he is in a good position to tackle Gurley inside.
Instead of running directly toward the inside shoulder of his right tackle, Gurley angles toward his outside shoulder before planting his foot to accelerate back inside. This allows him to run through the open lane from a point where the defensive end can't properly see him and at an angle that takes him away from the defensive end's reach.
Gurley is too fast for the defender over the middle, so he can escape to the second level before outrunning the incoming safety. Gurley's footwork and vision allowed him to get to the right sideline for a first down and a big gain.
This kind of subtlety and quickness will allow Gurley to be a very effective between-the-tackles runner in the NFL.
With Adrian Peterson suspended for most of this past season, the NFL's best jump-cutting running back was sidelined. Peterson's jump cut is exceptional. It allows him to change direction and position at great speed before he resumes accelerating downfield.
Gurley's may not be as good as Peterson's, but it's very impressive for a bigger back.
Gurley is a technically sound running back who can combine aggressive change-of-direction moves with subtle footwork and fluid upper-body movements. His vision, decision-making, anticipation and patience set him up to use his short-area burst to exploit space both between the tackles and outside.
Having such impressive footwork and vision is rare, but even more so when it is combined with incredible physical traits.
Big Plays
Being a power back with the fluidity and quickness to threaten the defense horizontally is enough to make any prospect a viable NFL starter. Truly special prospects need more though. Truly special prospects not only can't have any weaknesses, but they need to be above average in every area. And Gurley is exactly that.
Even at Gurley's size, he is still a home run threat whenever he touches the football.
Straight-line speed is often overrated for NFL running backs. If you don't have the ability to find space against NFL-caliber athletes, you won't be able to take advantage of that speed. Gurley has no issue finding space, and he should have no issue running away from NFL-caliber athletes.
His straight-line speed isn't as impressive as other backs in this class, but it is still above average.
He was able to comfortably outrun angles in space against linebackers and further down the field against some defensive backs in college. When he looked to break outside of either offensive tackle, he could comfortably turn the corner while maintaining his balance and outside speed.
In the NFL, it's unclear if Gurley will run away from defenders so easily. But he should still be a big-play threat, even if his big plays are capped at 50 or 60 yards instead of 75-plus.
Gurley's speed isn't such that he falls in love with it. It doesn't draw him toward the sideline or cause him to force plays outside when there is more space inside. Instead, he is more willing to threaten outside runs before breaking back infield where he often needs to make a safety miss in space.
Unsurprisingly, Gurley's vision on the second level is impressive, and he can comfortably skip past defenders in space.
Receiving Option
In Georgia's offense, Gurley caught the football almost exclusively out of the backfield. As such, he wasn't able to show off any versatility lining up in different spots. He still highlighted his comfort and effectiveness in space, though, as well as his ball skills.
Most plays were just extended handoffs or screens that allowed Gurley to make plays like a running back, but there were times when his catch radius was stretched, like in the play below.
On this play against Auburn, Gurley needed to locate the football over his head and coral it comfortably while on the move. He seamlessly went from catching the ball to attacking the space that was created downfield by his blockers.
Gurley likely won't be one of the best receiving backs in the NFL, but he could still be a productive receiving option for the offense that drafts him.
Special Teams Threat
Surpassed all of his contributions on offense, Gurley is also a viable option as a kick returner. He has the long speed to take the ball from one end zone to the other, but it is likely something he won't be asked to do too often during his career because of his torn ACL injury.
The ability as a returner likely won't outweigh the risk of the additional injury opportunities.
In terms of skill set, Gurley has everything you could ask for in a top running back prospect.
He has the potential to be the next Adrian Peterson or Marshawn Lynch. He can be a major difference-maker and the focal point of any offense. The only significant question mark hanging over his impending career is his recovery from a torn ACL.
ACL rehabilitation has become almost routine in recent times. Nine months is no longer the expected length of rehab. Instead, nine months is more often the ceiling. Gurley tore his ACL on November 15, 2014. He had surgery 11 days later on November 26.
Nine months (36 weeks) on from November 26 will put Gurley's return at early August. In early August, Gurley will also turn just 21 years of age.
Drafting Gurley will come with some added risk because of that recovery, but his return timetable suggests that Gurley will be ready for his rookie season. And at such a young age, Gurley should recover his health for the long term.
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