UFC Fight Night 61: B/R Staff Main Card Predictions
No football on Sundays anymore? No problem! The UFC can fill your Sunday void this weekend, as UFC Fight Night 61 comes live on Fox Sports 1.
The card, which comes to you from Brazil, is heavy on Brazilian talent. The headliner sees home-country fighter Antonio Silva defend his turf against former UFC champ Frank Mir.
There are some other good fights on the card, making this a must-see event.
Without further ado, the Bleacher Report staff is ready to guide you through Sunday's card. So, Scott Harris, Sean Smith, Craig Amos, James MacDonald and myself, Riley Kontek, give you our picks for the main card.
2015 Staff Records
1 of 7
It's early in the running, so there's a lot of time. A lot of time, for me, the leader, to expand my lead.
The top three are separated by just two wins. Craig and Scott are bringing up the caboose, looking for some light to pass somebody up.
Here are the records this year thus far.
2015 Records
Riley Kontek (19-5)
James MacDonald (18-6)
Sean Smith (17-7)
Craig Amos (15-9)
Scott Harris (15-9)
Sean Strickland vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
2 of 7
Kontek: Sean Strickland has long been one of my top prospects at middleweight, but he's going to have to prove that again after a questionable decision win over Luke Barnatt in his last fight. Strickland is well-rounded and likely more skilled than Santiago Ponzinibbio when it comes to competing. However, he'll have to avoid the power punching of the Argentine. Strickland wrestles his way to victory.
Strickland, Unanimous Decision
Smith: Ponzinibbio and Strickland are evenly matched, so this is a tough one to call. After being matched up with now-ranked welterweight contender Ryan LaFlare, Ponzinibbio looked good in a knockout win over Wendell Oliveira. The Brazilian enjoyed a reach advantage in that matchup that he won’t have on Sunday, though. This one will be competitive in all areas, but Strickland will grind it out with more grit and better conditioning.
Strickland, Unanimous Decision
Amos: I underestimated Ponzinibbio last time he competed, but his performance against Wendell Oliveira forced me to reassess. Still though, he's not good enough to take on Sean Strickland who, despite a lackluster win in his most recent fight, has shown promise and has youth on his side.
Strickland, Unanimous Decision
Harris: I really like Sean Strickland's prospects in the welterweight division. This is his debut in that weight class, and he'll teach a tough ground-and-pound lesson to the guy whose last name I can't pronounce.
Strickland, Unanimous Decision
MacDonald: This is a close matchup. I won’t pretend to have been impressed by Strickland’s iffy decision win over Luke Barnatt, but he seems to have decent upside overall. I can’t imagine he’ll ever be in the title mix at welterweight, but I’m taking him to earn a hard-fought decision over Ponzinibbio.
Strickland, Unanimous Decision
Iuri Alcantara vs. Frankie Saenz
3 of 7
Kontek: Frankie Saenz is level-jumping here. He won his debut against a no-name and now has been thrown in the deep end of the pool against a Top 10 bantamweight in Iuri Alcantara, who has consistently fought some of the top fighters in his weight class and done so with good success. He will win with relative ease.
Alcantara, Unanimous Decision
Smith: This is a serious mismatch. While Saenz only has one UFC win, against Nolan Ticman, Alcantara has knocked out Ricardo Lamas and beaten a ranked bantamweight in Wilson Reis. The Brazilian should win quickly and violently on Sunday.
Alcantara, TKO, Rd. 1
Amos: Alcantara doesn't generate much fanfare, but the guy has posted some solid results over the past five years. It's unlikely he'll ever wear UFC gold, but that and beating Frankie Saenz are two different things. Alcantara will notch his fourth straight on Sunday.
Alcantara, Submission, Rd. 2
Harris: Saenz doesn't have enough for Alcantara on the ground. The mismatch there is just too great to overcome, and Alcantara will earn another win and further solidify himself as an underrated fighter in the bantamweight division.
Alcantara, Submission, Rd. 2
MacDonald: Yeah, I don’t see this one lasting too long. Saenz is out of his depth here. Look for an early knockout from Alcantara.
Alcantara, TKO, Rd. 1
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Rustam Khabilov vs. Adriano Martins
4 of 7
Kontek: There is no doubt that I am a fan of Adriano Martins, just not in this bout. Rustam Khabilov is a matchup nightmare for most guys he fights. His striking was his weakness, but it's now one of his strengths. He is well-versed and will shut down the Brazilian in a big way.
Khabilov, TKO, Rd. 2
Smith: Martins is one of the more underrated fighters in the lightweight division, but he has a tough matchup coming up with Khabilov. The Russian has the potential to be a contender at 155 pounds for years. Expect his wrestling to get the job done against Martins, who isn’t all that dangerous on the ground despite owning a black belt in jiu-jitsu.
Khabilov, Unanimous Decision
Amos: Martins is a talented fighter who is capable of beating many guys with more name recognition, but Khabilov is a brutal matchup for him. The Russian should manage to control the action for the majority of the fight, shutting down Martins' dangerous striking attacks and racking up points on the scorecards.
Khabilov, Unanimous Decision
Harris: This could be an excellent ground battle. Martins is a great Brazilian jiu-jitsu grappler, but he'll have his hands full with Khabilov. The Dagestani should have a strength advantage and plow his way through Martins to get back in the win column.
Khabilov, Unanimous Decision
MacDonald: Fun fight. This could turn into a decent grappling match, but expect Khabilov to dictate the terms of the contest and grind out a decision by virtue of maintaining top position.
Khabilov, Unanimous Decision
Cezar Ferreira vs. Sam Alvey
5 of 7
Kontek: Cezar Ferreira is two different fighters, so it's hard to predict which one will show up to the cage. However, his bout with Sam Alvey seems tailor-made for the Brazilian. Alvey doesn't stand out in any aspect, other than being tough. If Ferreira's gas tank holds up, he should be able to beat Alvey handily on the scorecards. Again, if his gas tank holds up.
Ferreira, Unanimous Decision
Smith: While Alvey has the power to put Ferreira away much like C.B. Dollaway did, he’s been too inconsistent to count on. Ferreira has looked good against all the unranked competition he’s met, so he should thrive in this matchup. I expect the Brazilian to get this bout to the ground as much as possible in order to avoid Alvey’s hands.
Ferreira, Unanimous Decision
Amos: Ferreira has failed to rise quickly and persuasively since winning The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, but he has fared well enough against mid-tier competition, albeit with some close calls. Sam Alvey is coming off a big win, and an upset wouldn't totally shock me, but I'll take the Brazilian in a close one.
Ferreira, Unanimous Decision
Harris: Props to Smilin Sam for getting back to the Octagon after a few years away. The guy definitely gives up a ground advantage to Ferreira, but that one-punch knockout power hasn't gone anywhere. Methinks he catches the grinder with a right hook and ends the thing early.
Alvey, KO, Rd. 1
MacDonald: Ferreira is the more skilled fighter, but the perpetually grinning Alvey has the kind of power that always makes him dangerous. I’m going to bank on the Brazilian being evasive enough to get the fight to the floor and secure a submission.
Ferreira, Submission, Rd. 2
Edson Barboza vs. Michael Johnson
6 of 7
Kontek: This is probably the toughest matchup to judge on this card. You either trust Edson Barboza's muay thai to the extent of holding off Michael Johnson's wrestling, or you trust that Johnson is the more well-rounded fighter. I have to think that Johnson can handle himself upright until he gathers himself to plant Barboza on the mat.
Johnson, Unanimous Decision
Smith: This is a pivotal matchup for Barboza and Johnson. Both men have had multiple setbacks in their UFC careers, but this bout will legitimately catapult the winner into striking distance of a shot at the lightweight belt. The Brazilian has displayed solid takedown defense inside the Octagon and should be able to use his reach and kicks to pick Johnson apart slowly.
Barboza, Unanimous Decision
Amos: If this turns out to be a kickboxing match, which it very well could, Barboza should prevail. Though Johnson is no slouch, he'll be hard-pressed to match the speed and diversity of Barboza's assault. I envision the Brazilian scoring a win for the home side, ending Johnson's three-fight win streak.
Barboza, Unanimous Decision
Harris: Johnson is an excellent wrestler, so tough luck for him that Barboza has excellent takedown defense. I see Barboza keeping this one on the feet and pulling off something cool, even if it doesn't spell a stoppage for the tough-chinned Johnson.
Barboza, Unanimous Decision
MacDonald: This is a great fight. Johnson has looked outstanding since his loss to Reza Madadi in 2013, and Barboza is always fun to watch. Despite huge improvements in his striking, Johnson will need to get this fight to the floor if he’s to have a realistic chance of winning. I can’t see him being able to pull it off consistently, however.
Barboza, TKO, Rd. 3
Frank Mir vs. Antonio Silva
7 of 7
Kontek: Frank Mir is one of my all-time favorite heavyweights, but even one of his biggest fans can notice his rapid spiral downward. That said, Antonio Silva hasn't looked much better post-TRT. On the feet, Silva has the advantage. The only way Mir wins is by planting Silva on his back, which I don't think will happen. Here's to hoping savage, top-game Mir shows up.
Silva, TKO, Rd. 3
Smith: Mir has had a great career, but I don’t see any Top 10 heavyweight wins left in him. This could be his last ride, and it’s hard to see how it will end well. Seeing as Silva has never been submitted, this seems like another bad matchup for Mir, and I expect Bigfoot to overwhelm him with power early on.
Silva, KO, Rd. 1
Amos: Mir hasn't had much luck taking his opponents to the mat of late, which spells trouble for him against Silva. Neither guy ranks as a flawless striker, but I'd give Silva the edge. And since both men wear chins that break on a fairly regular basis, it seems quite likely that edge will materialize into a knockout.
Silva, TKO, Rd. 3
Harris: Frank "Mur," as Brock Lesnar likes to call him, is on his last legs as a fighter. He'll be a top-notch grappler for as long as he remains on this Earth, but he won't have his way against the behemoth that is Silva. Here's guessing the Brazilian giant clubs him down.
Silva, TKO, Rd. 2
MacDonald: I would have had no hesitation in picking Mir in this matchup a few years ago, but he just doesn’t have it anymore. Despite Bigfoot’s limitations, the Brazilian should be able to best a faded Mir wherever the fight goes. I reckon Mir can at least go the distance, though.
Silva, Unanimous Decision
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