Latest Fact or Fiction for the 2015 NFL Draft
Here's a little piece of information for all you NFL draft fans out there: We are less than 80 days from the start of the 2015 NFL draft.
What's different this year? For one, the draft has been moved from its usual spot in New York to Chicago. What isn't new? That from now until the first round on April 30, there will be loads of misinformation coming from teams, players and the media related to the draft.
Unless you are in an NFL front office, it is hard to wade through all the rumors and speculation that occur this time of year. The best we can do is stick to what we know and not get too caught up in all the hyperbole.
Let's take a look at eight of these early rumors and try to sort out how they will look by the time the draft actually gets here.
Fiction: Winston Overtaking Mariota as Top Quarterback
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Sometimes, when the media starts to create a story, that story morphs into reality, as their opinion somehow becomes the opinion of the league. That's part of what is happening with the discussion over Florida State's Jameis Winston versus Oregon's Marcus Mariota for the top quarterback spot.
For the majority of the season, it was a near-consensus that Mariota was the more talented quarterback and would be taken first. And rightfully so. Mariota is one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks to come out of college in the past five years, and he has tremendous upside.
Nevertheless, as always happens, it has become paralysis by analysis with Mariota, and the critics have slowly chipped away at his game. At the same time, proponents of Winston continue to prop him up as more NFL-ready, and they may be correct.
However, as you look around the Internet, the conversations about Winston being taken ahead of Mariota originate from draft writers, not teams. In fact, in a Google search for "Winston or Mariota," you see that the sources for most of this are simply writers and not NFL sources at all.
Les Bowen of the Philadelphia Daily News actually reported that he hasn't heard of a single member of an NFL scouting or personnel department who would draft Winston ahead of Mariota. Interesting. This runs counter to ESPN's Adam Schefter's report that many NFL executives and scouts believe Winston is the better quarterback.
There's never been a media movement that has gotten one player drafted over another. And this just feels like another groupthink dynamic where draft writers have taken this notion and run with it. The bottom line is there's no hard evidence from the NFL to indicate Mariota has fallen out of favor to the point that he would be drafted behind Winston.
The two players have a lot in common with apples and oranges. If one is selected over the other, it will likely be because of those specialized skills each possesses and how those fit within a franchise.
Is Winston ahead of Mariota on some boards? Of course. But as of now, the notion that the league is shifting gears on these players en masse is just a rumor.
Fiction: The NFL Doesn't Draft First-Round Running Backs
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Where, oh where, will the running backs go? That is the question indeed.
It seems that every year we have this conversation about whether or not a running back will be drafted in the first round. However, everyone acts as if this is longstanding history, when in reality it is the opposite.
In the last 20 drafts, exactly two have not seen a first-round running back. Which two? 2014 and 2013. So while it might be a recent trend, it is not an historical tendency by any means.
So when the conversation comes up about Wisconsin running back Melvin Gordon and Georgia running back Todd Gurley as potential first-round picks, remember that history says it's more likely some team will take them in the first round as opposed to not.
Bleacher Report's Matt Miller reported that at least one NFL source graded Gordon as a top-15 pick. High praise, but there's no doubting the package of skills that Gordon brings. And if not for a knee injury this entire conversation would be moot, because Gurley would be a top pick as well.
So what do we think about the idea that this will be the third year in a row without a running back taken in the first round? Not a chance. You can lock that one in the vault. There are already too many good teams who won in spite of average running backs to let both of these players fall out of the first round.
Fiction: Vic Beasley Is Too Small to Be a First-Round Pick
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As the NFL rolls toward the scouting combine, all eyes will be on the scale. Every year some of the most fascinating parts of the combine are the official heights and weights. Each team embellishes the measurables of its athletes, but the combine lets us all know how bad it is.
One player this could impact significantly is Clemson edge-rusher Vic Beasley. Both Bleacher Report's Matt Miller and NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah have voiced concerns that Beasley is going to come in very light at the combine, and therefore his draft stock is going to take a tumble.
Again, this is a media-driven opinion and not information coming from the league. Nevertheless, there's little doubt if Beasley checks in close to 220 pounds, as they have speculated, teams will need to consider the impact of that.
Fortunately, the odds seem pretty long that Beasley is really going to be that small. In fact, it is interesting that Beasley is taking such a hit in the eyes of the draft media for his size, while Washington linebacker Shaq Thompson continues to have praise lauded on him, even though he's listed shorter by two inches and lighter by six pounds.
If anything pushes Beasley down in the first round, it will be the abundance of talent from the edge players in this draft. The Denver Broncos took a shot on an undersized linebacker like Beasley back in 2011 named Von Miller, and things seemed to work out OK.
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Fiction: Dorial Green-Beckham Will Be Drafted in the First Round
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The hardest thing for anyone to predict when it comes to the draft is how each team weighs the dreaded character concerns. There is no consistency between teams or even years as to what constitutes a significant character concern and what doesn't. How we as the public weigh these off-field issues clouds our judgment about prospects, and we forget that what is really serious to us may not be to an NFL front office.
None of this is truer for any player more than Oklahoma wide receiver Dorial Green-Beckham.
It's funny to call Green-Beckham a Sooner since he never actually played a single snap for the school. He found his way to Oklahoma after being dismissed from Missouri amid a litany of potential criminal charges. However, Green-Beckham remained suspended during his time at OU and was never allowed to do anything but practice.
So when he is discussed as a first-round pick, we are talking about a kid with some pretty serious character concerns as well as a one-year absence from actual play on the field.
Now, it appears Green-Beckham has been a model student-athlete at Oklahoma. "He had great character here," coach Bob Stoops told reporters last month. "Did well in his classes, really worked hard for us."
But does that justify guys like Mel Kiper Jr. projecting Green-Beckham in the first round in his mock draft last month, or the same for ESPN's other draft guru Todd McShay in his latest projection?
Green-Beckham is going to have a chance to plead his case personally to NFL teams and show that there's no rust on his game in offseason workouts. This is a very talented wide receiver class at the top, but Green-Beckham is every bit the player most of these guys are. However, there is just too much talent among this group for a team to roll the dice on him early.
Fact: Teams Have Kevin White Rated Ahead of Amari Cooper
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2014 was the year of the wide receiver. Last year's rookie class was absolutely ridiculous with talent. While 2015 might not be quite as rich with prospects, this group continues to shape up to be another quality class. And that starts at the very top.
For the majority of the season, the masses have had Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper as the top wide receiver in the draft, practically across the board. However, a recent report from Matt Miller indicated that multiple teams actually have West Virginia wide receiver Kevin White higher on their boards than Cooper.
Can this be real? Of course it can. Wide receivers are as unique as any position in the draft. Scheme fit and particular skills weigh heavily in how a particular team would rank a wide receiver.
There's no doubt that Cooper's overall talent warrants being taken first, but if a team wanted more of a vertical threat, White would be the guy. Cooper is more like former Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Marvin Harrison: steady, productive and consistent. Depending on what a team wants, White could easily be the better prospect.
Fact: Cleveland Browns Are Considering a Trade Up for Mariota
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A report from Bleacher Report's Jason Cole says that people within the Browns organization are giving strong consideration to using their two first-round picks to trade up and draft Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota.
Mix in the fact that the one viable quarterback from last year, Brian Hoyer, is going to run, not walk, from this organization, and there just isn't a whole lot more that can go wrong. Oh wait, I forgot about wide receiver Josh Gordon.
The fact is that the Browns have the ammunition to go up and draft a quarterback, and there's no doubt there is a need. The unfortunate part of this story is the Browns just drafted Johnny Manziel in the first round one year ago.
Do I believe Cole's report? Absolutely. The Browns have been digging themselves into a hole for a long time. Why not take the opportunity to really improve this team and roll the dice on another quarterback? The Washington Redskins need to start blowing up the Browns' phones on draft day the second they get on the clock if Mariota is still on the board.
Fiction: Danny Shelton's Draft Arrow Is Pointing Down
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Another polarizing prospect in this draft is Washington defensive tackle Danny Shelton. Depending on whom you believe, Shelton is somewhere between a top-five pick and a second-rounder.
All you have to do is search for Danny Shelton on Twitter and you'll see just how divided the draft community is about the massive Washington nose tackle. Scroll through, and the groupthink about his draft stock becomes evident.
Nonetheless, what is the true value of Shelton in the eyes of the league? So far, the league is mum. No inside sources have been leaked about where teams have Shelton on their boards. Any movement you read about is just a construct of the media and evaluators.
Where will Shelton go? If history is any indication, a top prospect that has a huge week at the Senior Bowl typically ascends in the draft, not drops. This bodes well for Shelton. Don't buy in to all the chatter about him falling. He is simply too talented at a need position for a big tumble.
Fact: Teams Would Rather Sign Sam Bradford Than Draft Mariota or Winston
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As if this quarterback class needed more bad press, along comes this story. We return to Cole, who reports that there are multiple teams in need of a quarterback who would prefer to sign Sam Bradford if the St. Louis Rams release him rather than draft either Mariota or Winston.
Bradford's career has not started how he wanted. After being the No. 1 overall pick in the 2010 NFL draft, he has been hampered by inconsistent play, questionable talent around him and an inability to stay healthy. Despite all that, according to Cole, there are teams that would rather have Bradford than either of the top two quarterbacks in this draft.
This is more realistic than one might think. A team like the Tennessee Titans could do more with Bradford than a guy like Mariota, and it would keep its first-round pick for another position.
This story is exacerbated by the fact that the New York Jets brought in Chan Gailey to run the offense. It is difficult to picture Mariota being successful in Gailey's offense. Bradford brings a veteran presence and some success in the league.
If the Rams do release Bradford, this one is really going to heat up.
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