Predictions for All 30 MLB Teams' Top Concern in Spring Camp
Show me a manager or general manager who claims to have no concerns about his team heading into spring training, and I'll show you a liar. For there's no such thing as a perfect roster.
Those concerns are far-reaching and varied from team-to-team. Some are worried about a position battle that's about to unfold for everyone to see, while others are praying to the baseball gods that a key player (or players) will return to good health—and stay that way.
Maybe it's a specific spot in the lineup that keeps a manager up at night, or whether a player who showed flashes of brilliance last season and is under pressure to build on that success is up to the challenge.
Whatever it may be, each and every one of MLB's 30 teams heads into spring training searching for answers. In this exercise, we'll identify what that pressing concern is, take a look at the situation (and a team's options) and see if we can't figure out how things are going to play out.
Let's get started.
Arizona Diamondbacks: Starting Catcher
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Arizona believes that 24-year-old Peter O'Brien, acquired from the New York Yankees last season as part of the Martin Prado trade, is their future behind the plate and the heir apparent to Miguel Montero, who was traded to Chicago in December.
As general manager Dave Stewart told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic last month, the future is almost here:
"I've decided that I'm not going to pursue another catcher. I talked with my people and my coaching staff. They believe that O'Brien is going to be around sooner than later. If that does happen, there's no need to go out and get another guy."
Considering that hardly anyone outside of the organization believes O'Brien can actually catch in the big leagues, that's a really, really big "if."
ESPN's Keith Law called him "a poor defensive catcher" and said that he wouldn't make a Top 200 prospects list, while Baseball America notes that scouts love his power but question whether he can handle quality pitching "either at the plate or behind it."
Perhaps even more troubling is the group of players O'Brien will compete against for a roster spot this spring (player's age in parentheses):
- Tuffy Gosewisch (31): Career .213 hitter over 55 games, decent defender
- Oscar Hernandez (21): Rule 5 pick from Tampa Bay, hasn't played above Single-A
- Gerald Laird (35): 12-year veteran, hasn't caught more than 60 games since 2010
- Blake Lalli (31): Career .128 hitter in 22 games, organizational depth
- Jordan Pacheco (29): More corner infielder than catcher, has never caught more than 19 games
- Matt Pagnozzi (32): Career .272 hitter in 43 MLB games, organizational depth
That's not a pretty picture, and it has the potential to get uglier once the Diamondbacks take the field.
For none of them are what you'd consider to be excellent pitch framers, something that FanGraphs' Mike Petriello notes could be a major issue for the club's retooled starting rotation:
"Allen Webster had trouble finding the plate in Boston, and he spent most of his time pitching to the well-regarded Christian Vazquez. So did Rubby de la Rosa. Jeremy Hellickson is notorious for performances that don’t align with his peripherals, and he’s coming from Tampa Bay, where the Rays put tremendous import on framing by employing (Ryan) Hanigan and Jose Molina.
"
While he's not an elite pitch-framer by any stretch of the imagination, Gosewisch has shown enough in limited playing time to stick with the team. That he's the only catcher on the 40-man roster with any major league experience doesn't hurt his chances, either.
After removing the organizational depth guys (Lalli and Pagnozzi) and Pacheco, who isn't really a catcher, Arizona is left with three players (Hernandez, Laird and O'Brien) to fill one spot.
O'Brien's power will open some eyes during spring training, but his defensive issues (and lack of experience against high-quality competition) will find him assigned to Triple-A before camp breaks.
That leaves Hernandez and Laird to battle it out. While Hernandez, despite his lack of experience, is probably the better option, the D-Backs would be required to keep him on the active roster for the entire season as a Rule 5 draft pick.
They simply aren't going to block O'Brien by doing that.
Prediction: Gosewisch and Laird open the season as co-starters, but neither one will finish the season in that spot.
Atlanta Braves: Fifth Starter
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There's a case to be made for Freddie Freeman's ability to cut down on his strikeouts and how Nick Markakis' surgically repaired neck holds up during the spring as Atlanta's two biggest concerns, but we won't really know the answer to either of those questions until the regular season is well underway.
What we will have an answer to, however, is who wins the final spot in what figures to be one of the game's best starting rotations.
Heading into spring training, five pitchers would appear to be in the mix:
- LHP Manny Banuelos
- RHP Mike Foltynewicz
- LHP Wandy Rodriguez
- LHP Eric Stults
- RHP Chien-Ming Wang
Well past their primes and limited by injury in recent years, neither Rodriguez nor Wang figures to last long in the competition.
Stults, 35, is past his prime as well, but he's made more than 30 starts in each of the past two seasons for San Diego. His durability and experience, which could be invaluable on a rotation that doesn't feature a starter older than 27 (Mike Minor), keeps him in the mix.
But Banuelos and Foltynewicz have far more upside—and the battle for the final rotation spot will likely come down to a race between the two.
It wasn't long ago that Banuelos was considered to be one of baseball's best pitching prospects, but erratic command and Tommy John surgery saw his stock plummet to the point where the New York Yankees flipped him to the Braves this winter for a pair of relievers, David Carpenter and Chasen Shreve.
Acquired from Houston in the Evan Gattis trade, Foltynewicz is where Banuelos was a few years ago—a highly regarded pitching prospect (ESPN's Keith Law ranks him No. 47 on his Top 100) who has the potential to develop into a front-of-the-rotation arm.
Prediction: Banuelos and Foltynewicz will battle it out for much of the spring, but Foltynewicz ultimately delivers more consistent performances and beats out his left-handed counterpart.
Baltimore Orioles: Leadoff Hitter
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Nick Markakis may not have been the prototypical leadoff hitter, but the veteran outfielder's ability to get on base consistently worked well despite his lack of big-time speed. But with Markakis now in Atlanta, the top spot in Baltimore's lineup is a wide-open competition heading into spring training.
"Somebody’s going to lead off Opening Day, I’ll bet you,’’ Buck Showalter told The Baltimore Sun's Jon Meoli a few weeks ago. “Our guys don’t talk about it a lot. I've said many times, take your best hitter and hit him first and give him more at-bats."
That's great in theory, but when it comes to Baltimore's roster, it's impossible to do. Adam Jones' bat is far too valuable in the middle of the lineup to put in the leadoff spot, while Manny Machado—who might be the team's second-best all around hitter after Jones—doesn't get on base nearly enough to be a table-setter.
Really, the Orioles have two options: left fielder Alejandro De Aza, who has spent the bulk of his career batting leadoff with solid results (a .271/.335/.401 slash line) and right fielder Dariel Alvarez, a non-roster invitee to camp who hit .306/.330/.472 between Double-A and Triple-A last year.
Prediction: Without an available roster spot for Alvarez, De Aza wins the job by default.
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Boston Red Sox: Dustin Pedroia's Wrist
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Between all of the comings and goings in Boston this winter, the potential that a full season of youngsters Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo offers and the seemingly never-ending chatter about a potential trade for Philadelphia's Cole Hamels, it's incredibly easy to overlook Dustin Pedroia.
But doing so would be a mistake, for the scrappy second baseman is not only the heart and soul of the team (along with David Ortiz), but also the key to their success.
While Pedroia put up solid numbers in 2014, hitting .278 with 40 extra-base hits and a .712 OPS while winning the fourth Gold Glove Award of his career, he wasn't himself after injuring his left wrist during the team's home opener and ultimately underwent season-ending surgery in mid-September.
Back in November while a guest on WEEI's Middays with MFB radio show, Pedroia explained the difference between this injury and other ailments that he's batted through in the past:
"It was just frustrating. The year before, I found a way to perform, playing nicked up. The year before it was a loose feeling — I tore that ligament in my thumb and everything just felt loose, so I was able to figure it out and let the ball travel more and just try to slap balls the other way and get hits and not try to drive the ball. This year it was more, I was restricted. I didn't have any motion. It was so swollen and tight all year, I couldn't get a feel of how to get through it. It was tough. I fought it all year.
"
Nearly five months removed from surgery, Pedroia insists that he feels great and that the injury is no longer an issue. “I plan on playing 162 (games),” he told The Boston Globe's Peter Abraham. “My body’s back. I feel strong. I’m lifting everything. Right back to normal.”
That's all well and good, but wrist injuries can be a tricky thing to recover from. It's one thing to feel great during the offseason and in batting practice; it's a completely different thing to say so after facing live pitching and playing in actual games over the course of a few days.
Prediction: Pedroia will be driving the ball with conviction before spring training ends.
Chicago Cubs: Starlin Castro
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"I have to move," Starlin Castro told Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune before the team's annual Cubs Convention got underway, less than a month after being questioned by police in his native Dominican Republic about a pair of shootings that, ultimately, Castro had nothing to do with.
So Castro packed up his family and moved to Arizona, a big step toward maturity that wasn't lost on team president Theo Epstein.
“It’s important that he be the one getting the wakeup call and not someone make it for him," Epstein told CSN Chicago's Patrick Mooney. "So we didn’t mandate that he move. We didn’t mandate that he make changes. We gave him our perspective on it. And then, as a mature person, I think he came to the right conclusion."
Castro's level of maturity (or lack thereof) has been brought into question before. When you consider that he's missed significant chunks of spring training with leg injuries in each of the past two years, it was fair to ask just how much work he was putting in during the offseason.
But Castro's agent, Paul Kinzler, told Gonzales that his client had been working out since arriving in Arizona. If nothing else, it's another step in the maturing process and shows that he seems to be taking his job seriously.
For all of the hype surrounding Chicago's young talent, Castro is the most important piece to the team's on-field success. A three-time All-Star before his 25th birthday, the Cubs need a healthy and motivated Castro to emerge from spring training if they've got any chance of contending in 2015.
Prediction: Castro will rise to the occasion and emerge from spring training looking like the superstar that many believe he's capable of becoming.
Chicago White Sox: Second Base
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White Sox GM Rick Hahn wasn't kidding when he told CSN Chicago's Dan Hayes that there would be "an open competition" for the right to be Chicago's starting second baseman in 2015. Four players—Gordon Beckham, Emilio Bonifacio, Micah Johnson and Carlos Sanchez—will be in the running for the job.
Of the group, Beckham and Bonifacio seem the least likely to emerge victorious. The White Sox gave Beckham nearly six years to lock the position down before trading him to the Los Angeles Angels late last season, while Bonifacio's real value is in his versatility, which gets lost if he's locked into one position.
That leaves a pair of youngsters, the 24-year-old Johnson and 22-year-old Sanchez, to serve as Alexi Ramirez's new double play partner, a premise that manager Robin Ventura told Hayes he agreed with:
"They’re the frontrunners to fight for a job and try to win it. Micah is an exciting player, very fast, good at bats, smart player. They’re both smart players who will have an opportunity.”
Johnson's 2014 season was cut short by a hamstring injury, robbing him of a potential September promotion to the show. Aside from a one-game appearance in mid-July, Sanchez arrived in late August and finished the year with the White Sox, hitting .250 with a .569 OPS over 28 games.
Which one will rise up to snag the job?
Prediction: Johnson has better spring training stats but Sanchez opens the season as the team's starter, with Ventura and the coaching staff's familiarity with him (and the fact that he's already on the 40-man roster) working in his favor.
Cincinnati Reds: Back of the Rotation
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There are a number of areas of concern for the Cincinnati Reds, perhaps none bigger than the current state of the starting rotation.
A group that ranked third among MLB rotations in ERA (3.37) and WHIP (1.17) last year finds itself without Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon, who were both traded away, while Homer Bailey is coming off of season-ending elbow surgery.
Tony Cingrani and Anthony DeSclafani, the latter acquired from Miami in the Latos trade, appear to be the favorites to replace Latos and Simon. While Reds manager Bryan Price told C. Trent Rosecrans of The Cincinnati Enquirer as much in January, he wasn't about to guarantee anything:
"Cingrani and DeSclafani are the favorites to fill the back two spots in the rotation (but) we don't want to be giving away jobs on our ballclub in January.
It'd be nice for them to come in, pitch well and be ready to go for spring. But we'll certainly look at (Raisel) Iglesias and (David) Holmberg and Jason Marquis as other options.
"
The team's only left-handed starter with major league experience and having shown flashes of brilliance over parts of three seasons with the Reds, Cingrani is a lock to break camp as the No. 4 starter.
As for the other four pitchers in the running, Marquis has by far the most experience, with 14 seasons and nearly 370 starts under his belt. But he missed all of 2014 after undergoing Tommy John surgery and, entering his age-37 season, may not have anything left to offer.
DeSclafani and Holmberg both struggled during their brief stays in the major leagues in 2014 but still have potential, though DeSclafani is probably more major league ready at this point in their respective development.
Iglesias, signed to a seven-year, $27 million deal last summer, might be the most talented of the three youngsters in the mix for a rotation spot. But he was primarily a reliever in Cuba and needs to build up his arm strength.
Prediction: DeSclafani will outperform Holmberg, but both will be dwarfed by Iglesias. Yet DeSclafani will get the nod as the team's No. 5 starter, while Iglesias heads to the bullpen and Holmberg back to Triple-A.
Cleveland Indians: Michael Bourn
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Pick a statistical category—pretty much anything that has to do with offense—and chances are that Cleveland's leadoff hitters ranked at or near the bottom of baseball in nearly every single one last season.
Whether it was their .247 batting average (tied for 25th), .308 on-base percentage (also tied for 25th), 90 runs scored (tied for 22nd) or 20 stolen bases (also tied for 22nd), Cleveland's leadoff hitters were more of a detriment to the team's offense than an asset.
That needs to change in 2015, and it starts with Michael Bourn.
The once-durable veteran has battled injury since signing with the Indians before the 2013 season, making three trips to the disabled list—including two last year, the first of which began before the regular season did.
"From the second time on, I was trying to make sure that I didn't get hurt again," he told Fox Sports Ohio's Joe Reedy. "I felt like I battled injuries all year long with my hamstring. That's part of it. I hated it. As much as I wanted to be on the field, I couldn't get out there because I was hurting."
To ensure that his legs are no longer an issue, Bourn has spent the winter working out with former Olympic sprinter Leroy Burrell, who won a gold medal as part of the U.S. Men's 4x100-meter relay team at the 1992 Summer Olympics in Barcelona.
It's something that's gotten the attention of Indians manager Terry Francona, who was optimistic about Bourn's chances of finding his former glory in a conversation with Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer:
"You don't see a lot of veteran players do what Bournie did (working with Burrell). Brad Mills (bench coach) went and watched him workout and said he's really getting after it. He understands what we need from him. When he gets on base, he has to disrupt the game.
He wants to do it really bad, he just wasn't in position to do it the last couple of years . . .Hopefully, those injuries are limited and he can use his legs because he's a huge part of what we do.
"
Bourn seems determined to once again become a table-setter atop the lineup and a dangerous man for the opposition to put on base, and that's only going to make the Indians a more dangerous club in what looks like a wide-open AL Central.
Prediction: It's always risky to bet on a 32-year-old player with a history of leg injuries to stay healthy, but few athletes know how to keep their legs strong like sprinters do. If Bourn was ever going to rediscover the magic that garnered him a four-year, $48 million deal from the Tribe, it's in 2015.
Colorado Rockies: Troy Tulowitzki
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Asked about Troy Tulowitzki's outlook heading into 2015, Colorado manager Walt Weiss summed up not only his thoughts, but also those of every Rockies fan: "The law of averages says he has a healthy year coming up," he told The Associated Press (h/t ESPN) at the team's "Rockiesfest" extravaganza in January.
More than his oft-injured counterpart Carlos Gonzalez, Tulowitzki is the key to any chances the Rockies have of finding sustained success in 2015. A perennial MVP candidate, he's been limited to less than 100 games in two of the past three seasons: 47 in 2012 (groin surgery) and 91 in 2014 (hip surgery).
Hip surgery is no minor procedure, especially when you're talking about a shortstop. Whether he'll have the same lateral quickness and range is a legitimate concern to have. Offensively, you worry about hip rotation and whether his mechanics at the plate will change.
Of course, there's also the general concern of whether or not the hip will stay healthy, given the wear-and-tear that it'll endure on a daily basis and Tulo's less-than-stellar recent injury history.
They're concerns that talk cannot quash, something that the four-time All-Star understands:
"Honestly, I can say I feel as good as new. But at the same time, no one is going to believe me until they see me go out and see me play. Come to spring training, watch me play and then make your opinion."
Other teams—especially those in need of a shortstop—will be watching closely, as a healthy, productive Tulowitzki gives Colorado a valuable trade chip to play if things don't go as planned during the regular season.
Prediction: Colorado will take it slow and steady with Tulowitzki this spring and he'll reach Opening Day with a clean bill of health, though he's likely to look a step slower as he continues to round into shape over the season's first month.
Detroit Tigers: Victor Martinez
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Already faced with the possibility of opening the season without Miguel Cabrera, the game's best hitter who is recovering from offseason ankle surgery, Detroit now has to consider an Opening Day lineup that's without both Cabrera and his partner-in-crime, Victor Martinez.
Re-signed to a lucrative four-year, $68 million deal this winter, Martinez recently had surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee—the same knee that needed multiple operations in 2012 to repair and wound up costing him the entire season.
Thankfully, the damage to his knee wasn't as severe as some—including manager Brad Ausmus—feared and V-Mart is expected to only miss four-to-six weeks, according to The Detroit News' Tony Paul and Lynn Henning.
"Probably as good of news as I could've hoped for," Ausmus told reporters. "Better than I was expecting."
While no two injuries (or people) are the same, that Cabrera is further along in his recovery (Paul and Henning report he's set to be re-evaluated by doctors this coming weekend) should increase his odds of being ready to go when the regular season begins. V-Mart's recovery has only just begun.
The four-to-six week timeline would put Martinez on track for Opening Day, but as Ausmus told Paul and Henning, the Tigers aren't going to rush him back: "We've gotta be smart about this. We want Victor for the extreme bulk of the season, as opposed to making sure he plays in the very first game."
Prediction: Martinez will be back on the field before the end of camp, but he will need some extra time to get back to where he needs to be. He'll start the season playing in extended spring training.
Houston Astros: Corner Infield Spots
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Both first base and third base figure to be fluid positions for the Houston Astros in 2015, but someone has to emerge as the Opening Day starter at each position in spring training, and who that's going to be is anyone's guess.
Let's take a quick look at the competition on both sides of the diamond and see if we can't make some sense out of it.
First Base
- Chris Carter
- Matt Dominguez
- Evan Gattis
- Jon Singleton (incumbent)
Singleton struggled mightily in his first taste of big league action, hitting just .168 with 26 extra-base hits (13 HR) and an astounding 134 strikeouts in 362 plate appearances. That works out to a 37 percent strikeout rate—the highest of any player that made at least 350 plate appearances in 2014.
Carter is also a strikeout machine with questionable defense, but one that ranks fifth in home runs (66) and 23rd in RBI (170) over the past two seasons. Gattis, acquired from the Atlanta Braves, is cut from the same cloth—big power, big strikeouts, shaky defense.
Third Base
- Matt Dominguez (incumbent)
- Colin Moran
- Luis Valbuena
Of the three options at the hot corner, Moran probably has the most upside and least power—but he's yet to play above Double-A.
Dominguez hasn't lived up to expectations with the Astros, hitting .233 with a .650 OPS over parts of three seasons at the hot corner, but he's offered some pop and passable defense, at least until the wheels came off last season.
Valbuena, acquired from the Chicago Cubs is much like Dominguez, struggling to hit for average while offering some power and defensive ability.
Prediction: Carter opens the season at first base, while Dominguez and Valbuena will split time at third. Gattis will serve as the team's primary designated hitter and backup first baseman, while Moran and Singleton will start the year in Triple-A.
Kansas City Royals: Mike Moustakas
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Getting close to being labeled a bust after another uninspired regular season performance, Mike Moustakas looked like a completely different player once the playoffs began. He came through in the clutch with his bat, hitting five postseason home runs, the most ever by a Kansas City player in the playoffs and was even better with his glove.
Finally, Moustakas looked like the player that the Royals took with the second overall pick in the 2007 first-year player draft, and expectations for 2015 are that he'll pick up where he left off.
But we've seen the Moose get loose in short stints before—specifically in spring training. Over the past two exhibition seasons, he's hitting a combined .409 with 24 extra-base hits (nine home runs) and 34 RBI. Once the regular season rolls around, he's disappeared.
Since 2013, he's hit .223 while averaging 38 extra-base hits (14 home runs) and 48 RBI a year. So it's impossible to put any stock into his numbers this spring—we won't know for sure which version of Moustakas actually arrived in camp until the regular season begins.
But with Nori Aoki now in San Francisco and Billy Butler in Oakland—replaced by past-the-prime veterans Alex Rios and Kendrys Morales, respectively—the Royals need Moustakas to step up more than ever before.
Prediction: I'll probably wind up eating these words, but I'm convinced that Moose has finally turned a corner in his development. He looked more confident in the playoffs than we've seen before, and winning is contagious. That confidence—and his desire to experience the playoffs again—will carry over into what will finally be his breakout regular season.
Los Angeles Angels: Josh Hamilton
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Only a few weeks after telling Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times that he envisioned a “.300 (batting average), 30 (home runs) and 100 (RBI)" season in front of him, Josh Hamilton had surgery to repair the AC joint in his right shoulder and is expected to be sidelined for six to eight weeks.
Such a timeline puts his availability for Opening Day—and his ability to produce at a star level, as noted by Bleacher Report's Zachary D. Rymer—in serious doubt.
To be sure, there was already serious doubt about Hamilton's ability to put up elite numbers, something he's not done in the two seasons he's spent with the Angels. But injuries to his thumb and shoulder limited Hamilton in 2014, and there was at least a chance that he'd find his old form in 2015.
Collin Cowgill, Grant Green and Matt Joyce will all see time in left field while Hamilton recovers.
Prediction: Hamilton won't be ready by Opening Day, stretching an already-thin Angels bench to its limit.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Catcher
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While no spring chicken at the age of 31, it looked like A.J. Ellis had locked down the starting catching job for the Los Angeles Dodgers for a number of years in 2012, hitting .270 with 34 extra-base hits (13 HR) and a .786 OPS.
That bat helped to overshadow his below-average pitch-framing skills. But now that the bat has disappeared—a combined .218/.320/.318 slash line over the past two years—and his pitch-framing issues remain, the Dodgers have bought in a challenger, Yasmani Grandal, acquired from San Diego in the Matt Kemp trade.
One of the better pitch-framers in baseball, Grandal has struggled to produce at the plate over parts of three seasons with the Padres, hitting only .245, but he's posted a .350 on-base percentage and .763 OPS while providing some pop (15 HR in 2014).
With Kemp and Hanley Ramirez no longer with the team, the Dodgers need production at the plate from every position, not just a select few. That would seem to give Grandal the edge, but Clayton Kershaw is a vehement Ellis supporter, and Kershaw's opinion carries a lot of weight in Los Angeles.
Prediction: Grandal will win the starting job over Ellis rather easily, who will primarily serve as Kershaw's personal catcher.
Miami Marlins: Second Base
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Miami's decision to bat Dee Gordon leadoff and center fielder Christian Yelich second is going to draw comparisons to the team's early-2000s top-of-the-order combination of CF Juan Pierre and 2B Luis Castillo once camp begins.
The problem in doing so is twofold: Yelich is a superior talent to Pierre, while Gordon isn't the player Castillo was.
Gordon doesn't get on base with any consistency—among the 16 batters who had at least 450 plate appearances in the leadoff spot in 2014, Gordon's .321 on-base percentage ranks 14th—as does his 4.7 percent walk rate.
He's not a great defender either, whether you turn to UZR/150 or DRS as your advanced analytic of choice. In fact, as FanGraphs' Jeff Sullivan noted shortly after the trade that bought Gordon (and Dan Haren) to Miami was completed, Gordon doesn't really make the Marlins better than they were in 2014:
"Were it not for Gordon, the Marlins would’ve had three candidates to get time at second base. Here are all their 2015 projected WAR/600:
- Derek Dietrich: 1.6
- Enrique Hernandez: 1.1
- Dee Gordon: 1.1
- Donovan Solano: 0.4
Dietrich and Hernandez are projected to out-hit Gordon. Solano’s close. Obviously, there are questions about Dietrich’s defense. There are questions about Hernandez’s defense. There are questions about Solano’s everything. But it’s not like Gordon himself is free of question marks.
"
Realistically, none of the team's available options (Dietrich, Gordon or Solano) should be starting in the major leagues, and there's not going to be a competition for the job—it belongs to Gordon, barring injury.
But expectations come along with his arrival, and those could ultimately be Gordon's undoing in Miami.
Prediction: Gordon will break camp as the starter, but the position will remain in a state of flux throughout the season as the Marlins try to find a more consistent option.
Milwaukee Brewers: Jonathan Lucroy
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Jonathan Lucroy could potentially miss all of spring training as he tries to recover from a strained right hamstring that is expected to keep him out of action for four to six weeks.
"This is an approximation. It could be four weeks," assistant GM Gord Ash explained to reporters, including Andrew Gruman of Fox Sports Wisconsin. "If it is four weeks, then he is going to get 15 days of spring training. If it is six weeks, he'll get four or five days of spring training."
Either way, that's not a lot of time for a player to get ready for a season.
He's received a PRP (platelet-rich plasma) injection to try to speed up the healing process, something that Ash believes will allow Lucroy to get some work in during camp:
"This is not a total shutdown. This is common sense, be careful. The first week to 10 days after a PRP injection you have to be pretty quiet, but after that he's going to be able to do a lot of his regular routine and still stay active."
Ash went on to note that Lucroy has been through a similar situation before—only it's really not similar at all.
In 2010, Lucroy missed most of spring training in with a fractured pinkie finger and was still able to return to action in time for the minor league season. There's really no comparison to be made between the two injuries—one involves a bone healing, the other a tendon healing.
Hamstring injuries are also notorious for hanging around well after a player returns to action. That's a scenario the Brewers need to avoid at all costs, because they'd be in serious trouble if Lucroy missed a substantial amount of time.
Prediction: Lucroy will push to be in the Opening Day lineup (and get his way), but the injury will remain an underlying issue for much of the regular season.
Minnesota Twins: Shortstop
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Getting top prospects Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano through spring training injury-free is obviously a major concern (and goal) for Minnesota, but neither one is going to break camp with the club.
When it comes to questions surrounding the major league roster, the biggest one revolves around shortstop.
Danny Santana, a natural shortstop, spent much of 2014 patrolling center field and enjoyed a breakout rookie campaign, hitting .319 with a .821 OPS. That allowed Eduardo Escobar to emerge as a viable starter on the left side of the infield, hitting .275 with a .721 OPS while providing solid defense.
With no real solution in center field, it'd make sense for the Twins to keep things as they were. But new manager Paul Molitor wasted little time in telling both players that they'd be competing for the shortstop job this spring.
"It's probably been one of the more awkward things for me this winter in dealing with that situation," Molitor told MLB.com's Rhett Bollinger.
"Obviously, I have to go in there open-minded about how it will play out. I can't say Santana will be the shortstop because things can change. Escobar deserves an opportunity to play and whether it's spotting around the organization or he has to go back to shortstop, I can't tell you it all will work out."
Prediction: Despite having a glaring need in center field (Aaron Hicks isn't the answer), Santana opens the season at shortstop. Escobar, who is out of minor league options, will serve as one of two utility infielders on the roster, along with Eduardo Nunez.
New York Mets: Shortstop
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While speaking to MLB.com's Anthony DiComo at the winter meetings in December, New York Mets GM Sandy Alderson warned fans that the upgrade at shortstop that they've been clamoring for may not arrive in time for Christmas—or at all: "It's possible we will do nothing."
That's exactly what the Mets did—nothing—and they head into 2015 with the same options they had at the position in 2014: Wilmer Flores and Ruben Tejada. The two combined to hit only .243 with 36 extra-base hits (11 HR) and 63 RBI a year ago, and there's little reason to expect better results in 2015.
But with both out of minor league options, the pair is going to spend the season in Flushing—one in the starting lineup, the other biding his time on the bench.
Prediction: Flores will outperform Tejada and get the starting nod, but the position will continue to be a problem area and source of fan ire throughout the year.
New York Yankees: Second Base
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Despite hitting only .150 over 140 at-bats for the club, the New York Yankees decided to re-sign Stephen Drew this winter to a one-year, $5 million deal with the intention of starting him at second base.
"Hopefully, he can put last year behind him and be the player he was before then," GM Brian Cashman told Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. "He has a history of being a really good player prior to a season that didn't play out the way anybody expected. At (the) very least, he can play multiple positions and he's a helluva defender."
While Drew's presence would seem to diminish the chances of prospects Jose Pirela or Rob Refsnyder from breaking camp with the club, it's certainly not something that's etched in stone.
As Bleacher Report's Joel Reuter points out, should Pirela or Refsnyder outplay Drew and win the job, the Yankees could jettison Brendan Ryan and make Drew their primary utility infielder.
Prediction: Drew proves that 2014 was a fluke and returns to putting up quality numbers at the plate while continuing to flash an above-average glove at second. Pirela and Refsnyder will open the season in the minors.
Oakland Athletics: Starting Rotation
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Jon Lester and Jeff Samardzija are gone, leaving Sonny Gray and Scott Kazmir as Oakland's top starters heading into 2015. Who comes after them in the rotation, however, doesn't figure to be settled until spring training begins to wind down.
The A's figure to have six pitchers in the mix for three spots:
- RHP Chris Bassitt
- RHP Jesse Chavez
- RHP Kendall Graveman
- RHP Jesse Hahn
- LHP Sean Nolin
- RHP Drew Pomeranz
Chavez and Pomeranz are holdovers from last year's squad and put up solid numbers, Chavez pitching to a 3.45 ERA over 21 starts while Pomeranz was even more impressive with a 2.45 ERA over 20 games (10 starts) despite missing about a month with a fractured hand after punching a chair in the clubhouse.
Some would argue that gives them a leg up on the competition, but that's simply not the case, as manager Bob Melvin told Matt Kawahara of The Sacramento Bee: “I do love the fact that we’re going to have some competition—and competition amongst a lot of good, young arms.”
As Kawahara notes, the four remaining contenders have varying—albeit limited—major league experience:
"Of that quartet, Hahn has the most major-league experience: 14 appearances, including 12 starts, all with the Padres last season. Bassitt made five starts for Chicago – including one against the A’s last September, when he allowed one run in six innings – while Graveman made five appearances for Toronto in 2014, and Nolin, the lone left-hander of the group, has two career big-league outings.
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Not only do the A's have these six pitchers to consider, but eventually, A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker are going to be ready to return from their respective Tommy John surgeries, giving the club even more options to fill out its pitching staff.
Prediction: Hahn, Pomeranz and Graveman will fill out the rotation, while Chavez heads back to the bullpen to serve as the team's swingman. Bassitt and Nolin will start the season in Triple-A.
Philadelphia Phillies: Third Base
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As far as Philadelphia GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is concerned, Cody Asche will be the team's starting third baseman in 2015.
“He’s still our third baseman," Amaro told CSN Philly's Jim Salisbury. “We view him as our opening day third baseman. But we have introduced him to some outfield. He’s doing some light drills out there, getting acclimated to outfield drills, rudimentary stuff.”
While that doesn't guarantee the team's top prospect, third baseman Maikel Franco, a spot on the Opening Day roster, it does at least open the door just a bit.
Both of Philadelphia's corner outfield spots leave much to be desired, with a platoon of Domonic Brown and Darin Ruf in left field, Grady Sizemore and Jeff Francoeur in right. If Asche can get the hang of a corner spot—let's say left field—it's hard to argue that he wouldn't be an upgrade.
Franco struggled down the stretch for the Phillies as he got his first taste of the majors, hitting .179 with a .404 OPS over 56 September at-bats. But he opened eyes playing for Gigantes del Cibao in the Dominican Winter League.
"He's a power hitter who can pull the ball, but this year he made a very good adjustment and started hitting toward right-center with power, even hitting a couple of home runs in that part of the park," Gigantes manager Audo Vicente told USA Today's Jorge L. Ortiz. "He's also battling when he has two strikes on. We saw a guy who can hit the ball out of the park, but with a relatively low number of strikeouts considering his strength.''
There's little doubt that Franco is just about ready for a chance to stick in the major leagues, the only question that remains is whether the Phillies are prepared to give it to him.
Prediction: No matter what Franco does in spring training, he'll start the season at Triple-A, looking to improve upon the.257/.299/.727 slash line he produced in his first season at the highest level of the minor leagues. Asche will remain Philadelphia's starting third baseman.
Pittsburgh Pirates: First Base
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It's fair to say that Pedro Alvarez and Corey Hart would both prefer to forget that 2014 ever happened.
A year after leading the National League with 36 home runs and making his first All-Star appearance, Alvarez went deep only 18 times in 122 games, saw his defense reach new lows and his season end early thanks to a stress reaction in his left foot.
Hart, a two-time All-Star in Milwaukee who missed all of the 2013 season after undergoing microfracture surgery on his right knee, struggled to stay healthy (or productive) with the Seattle Mariners, hitting only .203 with six home runs and a .590 OPS over 68 games.
Now teammates in Pittsburgh, the pair of former All-Stars will look to get their careers back on track—and limit the wear and tear they put on their bodies—at first base for the Pirates, where they'll be joined at times by Andrew Lambo.
Are they destined for a platoon or will one do enough damage against pitchers from both sides of the mound to claim the starting job as his and his alone?
Prediction: A platoon it'll be, with Alvarez starting against right-handed pitchers and, ultimately, the bulk of the playing time.
San Diego Padres: Third Base/Leadoff
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Heading into camp, Yangervis Solarte is penciled in as San Diego's starting third baseman and leadoff hitter. But there are no guarantees that he'll be in the same position when spring training ends, and that could have major ramifications on the club.
One of general manager A.J. Preller's more overlooked moves this winter was his acquisition of third baseman Will Middlebrooks from the Boston Red Sox in exchange for catcher Ryan Hanigan, who was a member of the Padres for about a week.
It was only three years ago that Middlebrooks looked like the future at the hot corner for the Red Sox, hitting .288 with 29 extra-base hits (15 home runs), 54 RBI and a .835 OPS over 75 games in 2012.
But injuries and inconsistency have plagued him since, as he's managed a meager .213 batting average with 19 home runs and a .629 OPS over parts of the next two seasons, and now he finds himself looking for a fresh start in San Diego.
If Middlebrooks shows that he's regained his prior form, it's hard to make a case for Solarte, who is versatile enough to play multiple positions, to keep the starting job over the 26-year-old slugger.
Prediction: Middlebrooks will outplay Solarte, pushing the incumbent to the bench. As for a leadoff hitter, which Middlebrooks is most definitely not? How about Derek Norris, owner of a .354 on-base percentage over the last two years (and a .336 mark for his career).
San Francisco Giants: Third Base
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I openly admit that identifying a major concern for the defending champs seemed like an effort in futility for quite awhile, but third base could potentially be a problem.
Nobody expects Casey McGehee to come in and be the second coming of Pablo Sandoval at the plate, in the field or in the hearts of fans, but the Giants are counting on the 32-year-old to put up numbers similar to what he gave Miami in 2014—a .287/.355/.357 slash line with 76 RBI and passable defense.
But it's important to note that he slumped down the stretch for the Marlins, hitting .243 with a .620 OPS, and that as recently as 2013, McGehee couldn't get a MLB team to give him a chance. After hitting a combined .221 with a .632 OPS over parts of two seasons in Milwaukee, New York and Pittsburgh, he had to take his talents to Japan in order to get a team interested.
The Giants are going to be in some serious trouble if that's the McGehee that they acquired from the Marlins.
They simply don't have another everyday option at the hot corner—if the Giants thought Joaquin Arias could handle the everyday gig, they wouldn't have traded for McGehee in the first place.
Prediction: McGehee will show enough this spring to avoid a mass panic at the hot corner, but it wouldn't be surprising if the Giants looked to shore the position up later in the season.
Seattle Mariners: Shortstop
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It's not often that a 37-year-old utility player that hasn't played in more than 100 games since 2009 and is coming back from microfracture surgery on his right knee is the key to a spring training position battle—much less one on a team that everyone expects to contend.
Welcome to spring training with the Seattle Mariners.
If Willie Bloomquist's knee is healthy—and based on a report by ESPN 710 AM's Shannon Drayer in late January, it is—then he's going to serve as Seattle's primary utility player.
That means either Brad Miller or Chris Taylor—whoever loses the competition to start at shortstop—will be heading back to Triple-A. Miller struggled at the plate (.221 BA, .653 OPS) while Taylor got the bulk of the starts over the second half of the season, but both are capable of claiming the job this spring.
Prediction: Bloomquist will prove to be healthy, and while Miller and Taylor will post similar numbers this spring, Miller has more major league experience, which puts him over the top. But should he struggle in the early part of the season, the Mariners won't hesitate to swap the two.
St. Louis Cardinals: Fifth Starter
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Questions about whether St. Louis had enough depth in its rotation began popping up after the club traded Shelby Miller and prospect Tyrell Jenkins to Atlanta in the Jason Heyward trade, but in doing so folks overlooked a pair of talented youngsters with tons of upside—RHP Carlos Martinez and LHP Marco Gonzales.
Martinez, 23, has spent parts of two seasons with the Cardinals, primarily in the bullpen, pitching to a 4.28 ERA and 1.41 WHIP over 78 games (eight starts). The soon-to-be 23-year-old Gonzales made his major league debut in 2014, posting a 4.15 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 10 games (five starts).
Jaime Garcia, an oft-injured 28-year-old southpaw who went 26-15 with a 3.17 ERA over 60 starts from 2010 to 2011 before he began falling apart physically, could also factor into the mix this spring.
Prediction: Back in December during an interview with Fox Sports Midwest, GM John Mozeliak indicated that while both would get a shot at the fifth spot in the rotation, it was essentially Martinez's to lose. There's no reason to believe that's changed. Martinez will get the nod, while Gonzales will head back to Triple-A.
Tampa Bay Rays: Fifth Starter
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Were Matt Moore healthy, there wouldn't be any discussion about the fifth and final spot in Tampa Bay's rotation because it wouldn't be open—Jake Odorizzi would be locked in at the back end of the rotation.
But Moore is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery and has his eyes set on a June return, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. That opens the door for someone to break camp with the team—but who?
It's fair to assume that new manager Kevin Cash is going to give multiple youngsters a look in camp, but it figures to be a two-man race between right-handers Alex Colome and Nate Karns.
Both have limited major league experience—five games (all starts for Karns), eight games (six starts) for Colome—and both project to be quality mid-rotation starters once they hit their strides.
It's going to come down to which one performs better in spring training—and who makes a bigger impression on a new coaching staff.
Prediction: Neither one really has anything left to gain in the minor leagues, but Karns is slightly more adept at missing bats, so he'll wind up getting the first crack at filling in the No. 5 spot. That said, the two figure to be on a semi-continuous shuttle to and from the minors for much of the season.
Texas Rangers: Prince Fielder
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There's no shortage of concern in Texas, with a number of key players working their way back from injury and the Rangers' chances of putting a miserable 2014 season firmly in the past riding on their ability to stay healthy and return to their pre-injury form.
None are more important to the team's success than Prince Fielder.
The slugger never looked like himself in a Rangers uniform, unable to drive the ball with any conviction and hitting only .240 with 11 extra-base hits (three home runs) and a .720 OPS over 42 games before undergoing season-ending neck surgery.
As he explained to Evan Grant of The Dallas Morning News, the injury might have been the best thing that could have happened: “I’m excited. Baseball was taken away from me. And I realized again how much fun it is play. I never had fun like I should have. I’m not going to worry about dumb stuff anymore. They may not like me, but I’m going to have a lot of fun.”
It's easy to forget how good Fielder has been over the course of his career and that, entering his age-31 season, he's still got some quality years left in the tank. His .912 OPS since 2006 ranks fifth among players with at least 5,500 plate appearances, his 286 home runs sixth.
Prediction: Fielder is motivated to put his past behind him—a past that made him one of the game's most successful players. He's going to silence his critics and eliminate any concern the Rangers have about him with an impressive showing this spring.
Toronto Blue Jays: Closer
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Toronto's pitching staff is unquestionably going to be better with Russell Martin behind the plate than it was with Dioner Navarro, and Josh Donaldson's offense and glove at third base will certainly help the Blue Jays win more games than they did a year ago.
But the club heads into spring training without a clue as to who will be on the mound in the ninth inning—and that's a major concern.
The team has internal options in Brett Cecil, Steve Delabar and Aaron Sanchez, but Cecil is probably best suited for the seventh or eighth inning, while Delabar, an All-Star in 2013, found himself in such a funk last season that he spent much of it in the minor leagues.
Perhaps the team's best option just so happens to be its best pitching prospect, Aaron Sanchez. When asked by the Toronto Star's Brendan Kennedy if Sanchez would be the choice to close if he had to make a decision today, manager John Gibbons didn't hesitate:
“To be honest with you, the way it stacks up now and the question marks we’ve got down there, yeah, that’s going to strengthen the bullpen if he’s down there." But he also noted that while it may be the best choice for the team in 2015, it's not necessarily the best choice for 2016 and beyond.
“Next thing you know he never ends up a starter. We want to try to maximize what he is this year and down the road.”
To that end, GM Alex Anthopoulos told Kennedy that he's still kicking the tires on veteran free agents Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano, but noted that he wasn't as concerned with finding a closer as he was with adding quality depth to the relief corps.
Prediction: While Sanchez might be the team's best option to close, the Blue Jays can't risk messing with his development as a potential front-line starter. Cecil will start spring training as the closer by default, but either Rodriguez or Soriano will join the club before Opening Day.
Washington Nationals: Left Field
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It's been anything but a banner offseason for Jayson Werth. First, he underwent arthroscopic surgery on his right shoulder in early January and shortly thereafter was sentenced to five days in jail stemming from a July arrest for reckless driving.
The original prognosis for recovery from his surgery was two to three months, which would put his status for Opening Day in jeopardy. As he told The Washington Post's James Wagner, taking the field with his teammates to start the season remains his goal:
"I don’t want to do anything to jeopardize the rest of my career but also want to get on the field and play. It’s a balance. … As soon as I’m ready, I’ll be back. … My goal is opening day. If I can’t make opening day in D.C., then I want to make opening day in Boston. I’m going to try to be back as soon as I can without doing something stupid.
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Werth doesn't figure to be ready in time to start the exhibition season, and both Nate McLouth and Michael Taylor will be among the players who get some extra playing time in his absence.
Prediction: Werth won't be ready quite in time for the team's first slate of games, and Taylor will get the start over McLouth, who was a major disappointment in 2014 (a .173/.280/.237 slash line in 79 games) to begin the season. But the bearded one will return to action by mid-April at the latest.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.
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