Pros and Cons of Risking Huge Money on Amateur Stud Yoan Moncada

There's no such thing as a foolproof investment. Especially not with the big ones. It's easy to get excited about the potential reward, but the risks must be weighed.

Which brings us to Yoan Moncada.

If you missed it, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reported last week that the 19-year-old Cuban superprospect has finally been cleared to sign with a major league team. When he does, it will be for a great, big, heaping pile of money.

When Passan asked around in November, word was that it could take as much as a $30-40 million signing bonus to land Moncada. Such a bonus would utterly destroy the record of $8.27 million for an international amateur, and the real cost would be considerably higher thanks to the 100 percent tax a team incurs if it goes more than 15 percent over its allotted bonus pool.

In Passan's words: 

"

The upshot: If a team does indeed give Moncada a $30 million deal, it will cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $60 million. Should the bidding jump to $40 million, Moncada would cost $80 million – more than...any of the other Cuban defectors to this point.

"

Yup. There's a chance Moncada is going to be the most expensive player to ever come from Cuba.

If you're wondering what the catch is, well, we'll get to that. But first, let's talk about the justification for throwing a pile of money Moncada's way. Let's start with the pros.

The Pros

The Look and the Tools of an Elite Prospect

If there's an ideal position player prospect, it's a guy with strength and speed who can bat from both sides of the plate and who has enough athleticism to play any position.

Well, guess what? That's Moncada in a nutshell.

Though visual evidence is hard to come by, the experts don't hold back in describing what Moncada looks like. Passan painted him as a "fast-twitch-muscled, movie-star-looking" player, and Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs offered some high praise in comparing Moncada's body to that of Yasiel Puig.

And Moncada doesn't just have the body of an elite ballplayer. He has the tools, too.

When Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com asked one scout to rate Moncada's five tools—Hit, Power, Speed, Arm and Field—on the 20-80 scale after his showcase for MLB clubs in November, the scout rated none of them as worse than a 60.

That means the switch-hitting Moncada has easily above-average tools across the board, and here's McDaniel putting it all in practical terms: "plus bat speed, plus raw power, 65 to 70 speed (6.6 in the 60), the feel and hands to stick in the infield and enough arm to play anywhere on the field."

Though Moncada has the goods to play anywhere, he's generally pegged as an infielder. And even if he doesn't stick at short, one evaluator thinks he could be the next in a recent line of elite second basemen.

USA TODAY Sports

“He could be the next Robinson Cano [or] Chase Utley, but more Cano," said the evaluator to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe. "That’s the kind of potential bat we’re talking about.”

With everything he has going for him, Ben Badler of Baseball America wrote in August that Moncada would be in the mix for the No. 1 pick in the 2015 draft if he was eligible. Once he signs, Badler can envision putting him among MLB's top 10 prospects. So can McDaniel. And MLB.com's Jim Callis.

Oh, and it also helps that he's...

Nearly Ready for 'The Show'

Though Moncada is technically an international amateur, "amateur" doesn't fit him as well as it does many others. 

With many international amateurs checking in at only 16 or 17 years of age, the 19-year-old Moncada is several years older than many of his peers. He's also a year older than many draft-eligible high school players, putting him closer to the majors than many prospects pretty much by default.

But Moncada is also battle-tested. Badler's August article can tell you about the phenom's domination of various tournaments, and he's also a veteran of two Cuban National Series seasons.

With his age and experience, Moncada shouldn't need much seasoning. McDaniel has said from the start that Moncada should only need one or two years in the minors. That would put him in line to arrive at age 20 in 2016 or age 21 in 2017.

For perspective, Yoenis Cespedes, Jose Abreu and Rusney Castillo were already in their late 20s when they began their big league careers. Puig and Jorge Soler got started at age 22. Moncada should arrive even earlier and will thus have more prime seasons to give.

As such, Moncada could be really, really good really soon, and for a long time. If that's how things pan out, the $60-80 million a team will have spent on his bonus will look like a bargain.

"He's worth going way over your international spending pool, in my opinion," one scouting director told Mayo. "This game is about talent and Moncada is the kind of talent worth the investment."

So then, who's ready for the catch?

If you raised your hand, just know that there are actually several.

The Cons

The 'Other' Penalty

As we stated at the outset, a team exceeding its allotted bonus pool by 15 percent to sign Moncada will effectively double his price. What we didn't discuss at the outset, however, is the other penalty involved in this situation.

In addition to a 100 percent tax, any team that goes 15 percent over its allotted bonus pool is barred from signing any international prospect for more than $300,000 in the next two signing periods. Knowing that the top prospects typically sign for seven-figure bonuses, that effectively means being barred from signing additional elite prospects.

This isn't stopping teams from circling Moncada either, mind you, but it could be what a given team laments the most in the long run. If Moncada doesn't pan out, the team that signed him may have missed out on other potential cornerstones in addition to having wasted tens of millions of dollars.

And though every indication is that it's unlikely, it is indeed possible that Moncada won't pan out.

Not Much of a Project, But Still a Project

Though Moncada's potential may be through the roof, there is that nagging sense that the talent to be the real deal is not the same thing as having been the real deal.

Though Moncada owned the competition in various tournaments he played in, it's notable that he didn't dominate the Cuban National Series. In 101 games with Cienfuegos, he put together a good-not-great slash line of .277/.388/.380 with only four home runs.

Year	G	PA	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	OPS
2012	56	172	4	1	1	13	5	.762
2013	45	195	7	3	3	8	6	.771
Total	101	367	11	4	4	21	11	.768

This is where Moncada differs from other studs who have come out of Cuba. Abreu, for example, left the CNS with a career 1.078 OPS. Cespedes left with a career .989 OPS. Castillo topped a .900 OPS in two of his final three seasons. Puig posted a 1.011 OPS in his second and last CNS season.

Granted, this doesn't mean Moncada isn't as insanely talented as they say. But if he couldn't dominate the pro circuit in Cuba, you can't help but have at least a shred of skepticism about his ability to dominate the pro circuit in the States.

In turn, you can't help but have at least a shred of skepticism about how long he'll need before he's ready. Instead of one or two years, maybe he'll need three or four. And if he needs three or four, it'll be because his game was more flawed than originally perceived.

And on that note, we can get into how...

There Are Some Question Marks

That Moncada is a position player with an ideal body and above-average tools across the board is obviously enough to get the hype train moving.

Yet there are some questions that need answering.

For starters, there's where Moncada's best position is. No doubt many teams hope that's shortstop, but Badler and McDaniel both reported that Moncada looked "uncomfortable" taking grounders at short in November. As such, a big part of his development could be spent determining how he fits at second base, third base or in the outfield.

And that, of course, will come down to more than just Moncada's tools. It will take time to get an idea of how well he translates his tools into actual in-game ability and not just on the defensive side of things.

Another thing to come out from Moncada's November showcase is that he looked better from the left side of the plate than the right side. That's something to monitor going forward and not the only thing. Best I can tell, things like pitch recognition and plate discipline are blank areas in Moncada's scouting book. So, too, is the matter of whether he has the baserunning smarts to complement his speed.

Lastly, it's not just Moncada the ballplayer teams are still uncovering. They're also uncovering Moncada the person.

B/R's Scott Miller spoke to a scout who remarked that Moncada may be a five-tool player, but also, "You don't know makeup or intangibles. We don't have any of the medical history yet. That's what clubs are doing behind the scenes right now, contacting people they know in Cuba, trying to find out makeup."

By the time Moncada signs, you can rest assured that his new employer will have done exhaustive amounts of homework on him. But all that homework won't erase all the question marks. Some of them could persist, and some could be strong enough to rattle or even derail his career.

Take care not to read this as a warning that Moncada is doomed to fail. Instead, consider it a reminder that underneath all the lofty praise and huge dollar amounts is essentially just another prospect. Moncada could be the next big thing, and he could be nothing.

Either way, we're going to find out. And either way, you've been briefed.

Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.

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