Biggest Risers, Fallers of the Early 2015 NFL Draft Process
The buildup to the 2015 NFL draft is well underway. While the draft itself is still 80 days away, the NFL Scouting Combine starts in less than two weeks, while the season of predraft all-star games, including the Senior Bowl, is complete.
At this point in the process, most discussion of players rising and falling on draft boards is purely speculative. While NFL teams are well within the process of determining their potential draft targets, there are still numerous things to come—including the combine, pro days, medical evaluations and team interviews—that will factor into final evaluations.
Even so, there are already some prospects whose draft stocks are evidently trending one way or the other. While some talents took advantage of the Senior Bowl or other recent big stages to prove they deserve more recognition, there are other players whose stocks have been damaged in the past month by poor performances in all-star games or by injuries.
The following 10 players are among those who have either moved in a positive direction or a negative direction, in regards to how likely they are to be early draft picks, more than any other prospects since the end of the college football season.
Riser: Arik Armstead, DE/DT, Oregon
1 of 10While it might have been in Arik Armstead’s best interest to return to Oregon for his senior season, the junior defensive lineman’s standing has gone nowhere but up since he declared for the 2015 draft.
Armstead announced his decision to enter the draft on January 14, one day after the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, in which he had one of the best performances of his three-year career.
Despite his team’s loss to Ohio State, Armstead bolstered his draft stock on the big stage by registering a career-high nine tackles and recovering a fumble. Also credited with three quarterback pressures, Armstead was graded as Oregon’s best defensive player in the game by Pro Football Focus.
Armstead was not a consistently productive player for the Ducks, but his upside is huge. Listed at 6’8” and 290 pounds, Armstead is a terrific athlete for his size and has the ideal measurables to play as a defensive end in a 3-4 defensive scheme.
While Armstead is not yet a technically refined player, he shows the ability to win with both power and agility. He also has enough versatility to potentially play both defensive tackle and defensive end for a team with a 4-3 unit.
His upside is enough that he is being widely projected as a first-round pick going into the combine. ESPN’s Todd McShay currently projects Armstead to be selected No. 8 overall by the Atlanta Falcons, while Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller declared him to be “a top-30 player” in his most recent Scouting Notebook.
Faller: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
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Before the 2014 college football season began, many draft analysts projected Cedric Ogbuehi to follow in the footsteps of Jake Matthews and Luke Joeckel, his predecessors at Texas A&M’s left tackle position, and be a top-10 pick. Now, it’s questionable whether Ogbuehi will even be a top-100 pick.
Ogbuehi’s chances of being a top-10 pick had already diminished prior to the end of this past season. Although he spent time at both left tackle and right tackle, Ogbuehi failed to establish himself as a top-tier offensive line prospect, as he failed to dominate in pass protection and showed a lack of strength in run-blocking.
Still, Ogbuehi was projected to be a first- or second-round selection until it was revealed on January 13 that the senior had torn his ACL in Texas A&M’s season finale, the Liberty Bowl, against West Virginia.
The injury leaves Ogbuehi’s status for his rookie NFL season in doubt and renders him unable to participate in on-field workouts prior to the draft. A player who really needed to perform well in predraft events to rejuvenate his draft stock, Ogbuehi will instead leave teams with significant questions that would make him a risky investment in the early rounds.
Ogbuehi now finds himself in a comparable position to Brandon Thomas, who was being projected by some as a first-round pick last year before tearing his ACL in April, which led to his falling to the No. 100 overall pick. Ogbuehi has a different skill set than Thomas, but his plunge in the draft could be similar.
Riser: Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
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Annually, there are players who establish themselves as early first-round picks by performing well at the Senior Bowl. One player who appears to have done so this year is Washington defensive tackle Danny Shelton.
A 6’2”, 343-pound prospect with rare movement skills for his size, Shelton was arguably the most impressive physical specimen in Mobile this year. He was also one of the most dominant players over the course of the week of practices, simply because he was too quick and too powerful for most of his opponents.
Shelton was already well within the first-round mix prior to the Senior Bowl. A tremendously active player on the Washington defense, Shelton is coming off an All-American senior season in which he totaled 93 tackles, including 16.5 tackles for loss and nine sacks.
There are some draft analysts who are skeptical of Shelton’s game. Considered to be the “most overrated prospect” in this year’s class by Rob Staton of Seahawks Draft Blog, Shelton has limited hand skills and is not as consistently dominant in a phone booth as one would expect.
Even so, Shelton’s many outstanding qualities and his big week in Mobile could propel him as high as the top 10 picks of the draft.
He has been projected as the No. 7 overall pick of the Chicago Bears by ESPN’s Todd McShay, while Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller ranks Shelton as the 10th-best overall prospect in the draft class. His draft stock is currently ranked as the eighth-highest among all draft prospects by PlayTheDraft.com.
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Faller: T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
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Like Danny Shelton, T.J. Clemmings was one of the most physically gifted participants in this year’s Senior Bowl. But while Shelton utilized his physical assets to overwhelm his competition, Clemmings did not and was consistently defeated by his opponents over the course of the week.
A 6’5”, 307-pound offensive tackle with an 85-inch wingspan and terrific athleticism for his size, Clemmings has the physical tools NFL scouts covet in offensive tackles. In two seasons on the offensive side of the ball after starting his Pittsburgh career as a defensive tackle, Clemmings also exhibited tremendous run-blocking power.
Clemmings has huge upside, but his poor showing at the Senior Bowl made it clear that he is not ready yet to step in and start on an NFL offensive line.
In each of his three days of practice in Mobile, Clemmings lost a majority of his repetitions in pass-protection drills, exposing his lack of pass-blocking technique. His struggles continued in the actual game, in which he allowed five quarterback pressures and was graded as the game’s worst player by Pro Football Focus.
Clemmings could still be a first-round pick because of his developmental potential, but it’s probably more likely now he comes off the board in Round 2. Either way, it’s clear the team that drafts him will be making a high-risk investment with hopes of high reward.
Riser: Ali Marpet, G, Hobart
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No player has elevated his draft stock more in the past month than Ali Marpet. Hailing from the tiny Division III program of Hobart College, Marpet legitimized himself as an NFL prospect by not only competing in the Senior Bowl, but dominating most of his competition.
A left tackle at Hobart, Marpet made a natural transition inside to guard in Mobile. A 6’4”, 307-pound offensive lineman, Marpet should stay at the guard position in the NFL, where he very well could end up developing into a starting-caliber player.
Going up against players who were undoubtedly bigger, faster and stronger than most of his collegiate competition, Marpet looked unfazed. He regularly stonewalled his opponents in pass-rushing drills while he showed the power to drive his man downfield as a run-blocker.
Marpet, who was graded as the best offensive lineman in the Senior Bowl game by Pro Football Focus, now looks like a lock to be the first Division III player drafted since the Detroit Lions selected Albion cornerback Chris Greenwood in 2012.
It should come as no surprise if Marpet is drafted as early as the fourth round.
Faller: Ty Sambrailo, OT/G, Colorado State
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Like T.J. Clemmings, Ty Sambrailo went to this year’s Senior Bowl with aspirations of being a first-round pick but left Mobile unlikely to be among the draft’s top 32 selections.
Colorado State’s starting left tackle for the past two seasons, Sambrailo had a dominant collegiate career. A 6’6”, 309-pound lineman with a background in skiing, Sambrailo has a great combination of size and athleticism and has experience playing tackle and guard on both sides of the line.
That said, Sambrailo did not often have to go up against top-flight pass-rushers in his Colorado State career. Against tougher competition at the Senior Bowl, Sambrailo looked to be in over his head.
Functional strength and leverage were already concerns for Sambrailo going into the Senior Bowl, and those concerns were only amplified in Mobile, as he consistently lost ground against bull-rushes. And although he moves his feet well once he gets going, Sambrailo is not explosive out of his stance and had some issues against outside speed rushers as a result.
Sambrailo spent all of Senior Bowl week playing offensive tackle, but he looked as though he might be best suited by a move inside to guard at the next level. He has good technique for the most part and is a better prospect than he appeared to be in that all-star setting, but his draft stock could plummet if he does not bounce back with a strong performance at the NFL Scouting Combine.
Riser: Quinten Rollins, CB, Miami (Ohio)
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Another player who is starting to be projected much more frequently in the first rounds of mock drafts, Quinten Rollins can thank a strong showing at the Senior Bowl for bringing him into the picture to potentially be one of the first cornerbacks, if not the first cornerback, selected in this year’s draft.
A four-year basketball player at Miami (Ohio), Rollins played just one year of college football, yet is already one of the most skilled cornerbacks in this year’s draft class.
Coming off a season in which he recorded 72 total tackles and seven interceptions, Rollins displayed fluid hips, quick feet and great ball skills in Mobile. He had one of the finest highlights of the Senior Bowl game when he made a full extension for a remarkable diving interception.
At 5’11” and 193 pounds, Rollins must answer questions about his speed at the combine. Nonetheless, Rollins’ potential is highly intriguing, considering how well he performed against top competition despite his inexperience.
Bleacher Report’s Ian Wharton recently defined Rollins as the “fastest riser” in this year’s draft. CBS Sports’ Dane Brugler is currently projecting Rollins to be drafted with the No. 22 overall pick by the Pittsburgh Steelers, while Rotoworld’s Josh Norris mock drafts Rollins to selected 32nd overall by the New England Patriots.
Faller: Shane Carden, QB, East Carolina
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Indicative of the severe lack of depth at the position in this year’s draft class, there were no standout quarterbacks in postseason all-star games this year. On the other hand, there were plenty of quarterbacks—including East Carolina’s Shane Carden—who did not look as though they should be drafted at all.
Carden was widely regarded as a potential fourth- or fifth-round draft pick before the Senior Bowl, but he came out of it looking more likely to be an undrafted free agent, even in a horrendous senior class of signal-callers.
His lack of arm strength was exposed during Senior Bowl week, over the course of which he struggled to drive the ball deep. Overall, it was evident that despite Carden’s collegiate success, he does not have many traits that suggest he can ever provide legitimate competition for an NFL starting quarterback job.
As Bleacher Report’s Matt Miller noted in his most recent Scouting Notebook, Carden also comes with mechanical flaws—including a setup that “will tip off defenses about when and where he's throwing” that could be tough for him to overcome.
Carden has been invited to this year’s NFL Scouting Combine, but he is one of the three designated throwing quarterbacks. That will give him more opportunities to impress scouts, as he will be asked to throw passes during drills on all four days of workouts, but it also means he was one of the last three passers selected for an invitation to the event.
Overall, it looks unlikely at this point that Carden will be drafted any higher than Round 6 or 7.
Riser: Carl Davis, DT, Iowa
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Iowa defensive tackle Carl Davis had the best performance of any participant in this year’s Senior Bowl.
A consistent presence in the opposing backfield thanks to his explosive burst and a strong swim move, Davis was named by a panel of NFL scouts as the Practice Player of the Week. He then continued to dominate in the game, for which he received the highest grade of any player from Pro Football Focus.
Davis had a disappointing senior season, in which he recorded just 36 total tackles and two sacks. He is nonetheless likely to be rewarded—potentially with a first-round selection—for his outstanding Senior Bowl showing in this year’s draft.
He didn’t always show it on the field at Iowa, but Davis has the tools to be a highly disruptive player. He has ideal size for a defensive tackle at 6’5” and 321 pounds and is also a great athlete for the position.
Faller: James Castleman, DT, Oklahoma State
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James Castleman’s final collegiate game was an exciting display of his athleticism. The Oklahoma State defensive tackle made an unusual impact on the offensive side of the ball, as he scored a first-quarter rushing touchdown and later gained 48 yards on a catch-and-run in the Cowboys’ Cactus Bowl win over Washington.
Ultimately, however, Castleman will only be drafted if it’s because a team believes he can be an impact player on defense. Right now, it looks as though he could end up on the outside looking in.
Castleman’s athleticism did not stand out in any way at the East-West Shrine Game, where he looked to be one of the least explosive defensive linemen off the snap in practices.
His draft stock was brought into further question this past week, as the 6’3”, 311-pound lineman was not one of the 323 players to receive an invite to this year’s NFL Scouting Combine.
Castleman was a solidly disruptive player for Oklahoma State who recorded 18 total tackles for loss in his career, but he really could have benefited from an impressive Shrine Game and/or strong combine showing to solidify himself as a Day 3 draft pick. Instead, he looks like a fringe draft prospect who probably will not be chosen any higher than the sixth round.
Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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