5 Reasons the Cincinnati Reds Could Actually Surprise People in 2015
The Cincinnati Reds' 2014 season didn't go according to plan. That doesn't mean 2015 has to be a lost year, though.
The team and their fans have some room for optimism, and by my count, there are five solid reasons to believe that the Reds are capable of surprising some of their detractors in the upcoming MLB season. Whether they're able to uphold their end of the bargain and make some of these observations a reality is yet to be seen, but a contending effort is not out of the question.
So, beginning with the most obvious reason for optimism, here's a look at five reasons the Cincinnati Reds could actually surprise people in 2015.
All stats courtesy of Fangraphs.com unless otherwise noted.
Finally Healthy
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The Reds struggled mightily with injuries in 2014. Through various parts of the year the Reds spent time without key players like Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey and Sean Marshall.
The injury bug kept the Reds hamstrung through most of the year, and it definitely contributed to the team's collapse in the second half (43-38 through the first half, 33-48 in the second half).
A healthy Phillips isn't the same player who used to put up 20-20 seasons on a regular basis, but he's still a mid-tier offensive option at the position. Despite Phillips' decline, a healthy Votto and Bruce can transform the Reds offense.
Last year, the Reds ranked in the league's bottom half in batting average (.238), on-base percentage (.296), slugging percentage (.365), on-base plus slugging (.661), isolated power (.127), total bases (1969) and runs scored (595).
When the magic of the reserves wore off, the Reds were left with an inept offense that was incapable of supporting a starting rotation that, all things considered, held their own for the entirety of the season.
The bullpen was a major issue for the Reds last season. The unit allowed a 4.11 ERA in 2014, good for 14th in the National League. Having Marshall back in 2015 will help solidify a unit that, outside of Aroldis Chapman, Jumbo Diaz and Jonathan Broxton (who is now pitching with the Milwaukee Brewers), was downright unwatchable last year.
Continued Emergence of Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco
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What the Reds lost last year in Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips, they gained in the form of breakout seasons from Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier.
Mesoraco, at age 26, worked to a .273/.359/.534 batting line with 25 home runs, 25 doubles, 80 RBI, 54 runs scored and a 103-44 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Among big league catchers with at least 350 at-bats last year, the Punxsutawney native led in home runs, slugging percentage, ISO (.260) and weighted runs created plus (147), while ranking fifth in WAR (4.4), per Fangraphs.com.
Frazier, who had a breakout year of sorts back in 2012, terrorized opposing pitchers to the tune of a .273/.336/.459 triple-slash with 29 home runs, 22 doubles, 80 RBI, 88 runs scored and a 139-52 K/BB ratio. Last year, among qualified third basemen, Frazier was tied for first in home runs, led in stolen bases (21) and finished in the league's top five in weighted on-base average, ISO, RBI, slugging percentage and runs scored, per Fangraphs.com.
Frazier and Mesoraco carried the load offensively, accounting for 41 percent of the team's home runs, 28 percent of their RBI and 24 percent of their runs scored.
Moving forward, the Reds can count on a bit of regression from both Mesoraco and Frazier. The two budding stars put up matching .309 batting average on balls in play last year, a stark departure from their career averages of .271 (Mesoraco) and .294 (Frazier), forecast at least a minor dip in offensive output.
Even so, the two figure to remain productive in 2015. Early Steamer projections for Mesoraco show a .246/.318/.442 slash line with 18 home runs and 55 RBI, while Frazier's projections call for a .249/.317/.432 triple-slash with 22 home runs and 68 RBI.
Improved Bullpen
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As mentioned back in the slide dealing with the Reds' health, the bullpen was an absolute mess last year.
As a group, the Reds bullpen allowed a 4.11 ERA, a 1.39 walks plus hits per inning pitched, 4.43 bases on balls per nine innings pitched and 0.96 home runs per nine innings. Beyond that, the unit combined for 31 losses and a 1.1 WAR, per Fangraphs.com.
Each of the metrics referenced above falls in the bottom half of both the National League and the majors as a whole.
Because of this, the Reds went out and grabbed veteran bullpen help in the form of Burke Badenhop and some additional help in the form of Kevin Gregg. Gregg will likely serve as minor league depth, but Badenhop is going to figure heavily into the Reds' plans for 2015.
Over the last three years, Badenhop has pitched for three different teams (Tampa Bay, Milwaukee and Boston) averaging a 2.90 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP while allowing just two walks per nine innings.
Badenhop has been solid over his last three years and will help to shore up the Reds' right-handed relief situation. Outside of a surprise season from Jumbo Diaz, Jonathan Broxton's outstanding 51 appearances and a serviceable (albeit down) year from Sam LeCure, the performance put forth by the Reds' right-handed relief corps was uninspiring.
This year, with Diaz returning, LeCure presumably returning to form, Badenhop and possibly Dylan Axelrod, that side of the bullpen is well represented. The rest of the bullpen should feature a combination of Aroldis Chapman, Manny Parra and either Paul Maholm or Sean Marshall, with the final spot contingent upon Marshall's health.
All in all, the consistency the Reds will get out of this group should help them through the 2015 season and, at the very least, provide a unit capable of losing a lot less than the 31 games they lost in 2014.
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Improved Contributions from Billy Hamilton
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Despite a second-place finish in the National League Rookie of the Year voting, it's safe to say that Billy Hamilton's 2014 debut did not go as planned.
The 24-year-old outfielder mustered up just a .250/.292/.355 slash line with six home runs, 25 doubles, eight triples, 48 RBI, 72 runs scored and 56 stolen bases to go with a 117-34 K/BB ratio.
Hamilton struck out at a respectable 19.2 percent rate, but his walk rate (5.6 percent) was representative of both his lack of discipline and pitch recognition skills. Hamilton is reportedly working hard this offseason on his strength, bunting and making contact, per John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.
In Fay's article, Hamilton cited the fact that he "struck out way too much," which isn't entirely true, but hey, don't let my opinion stand in the way of your work ethic, Billy.
Either way, working on his strength and conditioning can't hurt, as Bryan Price astutely pointed out in Fay's piece. He speculated that maybe the fatigue of playing a full season of big league ball played a role in Hamilton's decline during the second half.
The young speedster slashed a respectable .285/.319/.423 in the first half, and followed that up with a disappointing .200/.254/.257 effort in the second half.
If he can improve his selectiveness and lay off out-of-zone pitches (he swung at 30.3 percent of those pitches last year), Hamilton's OBP will trend upward toward a mark more representative of his 2014 first half. If that proves to be the case, we'll see a season in the 65-70 stolen base range.
Getting Hamilton on base at a .319-plus clip would be a big boon for the Reds in 2015.
As crazy as it sounds, Hamilton can only get better defensively. A finalist for the National League Gold Glove Award in center field, Hamilton put up some gaudy defensive metrics in 2015.
Despite the fact that Hamilton looked raw at times in his reads on fly balls, Hamilton led all big league center fielders in ultimate zone rating (20.1), revised zone rating (.950) and defense (22.1), while ranking in the game's top-three in defensive runs saved (14), UZR/150 (21.7) and assists (10), per Fangraphs.com.
With more seasoning in center, Hamilton's reads will improve, as will his defense as he continues to anchor the unit's efforts in the field.
Near-MLB-Ready Prospects
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The Reds farm system has been steadily developing some high-upside prospects over the last few years, and a number of them are coming up on their debut seasons here in 2015.
Here's a quick list of players who have either made their big league debuts or are pegged for 2015 debuts by MLB.com—system rankings are in parentheses.
- Robert Stephenson (1)
- Jesse Winker (2)
- Anthony DeSclafani (5)
- David Holmberg (11)
- Daniel Corcino (12)
- Yorman Rodriguez (13)
- Tucker Barnhart (14)
- Jon Moscot (16)
- Raisel Iglesias (N/A)
That's eight of the team's top-20 prospects all scheduled to participate in some fashion at the big league level in 2015.
Each of these eight players has a different timetable for reaching the majors, and it's possible we could see any combination of Iglesias, Moscot, DeSclafani, Holmberg or Rodriguez with the team as they break camp.
Either way, the Reds have a bevy of talented young players waiting for an opportunity to showcase their talents at the highest level. If the Reds are contending near midseason, they won't hesitate to promote Stephenson, Winker or any other deserving prospect in an attempt to prove detractors wrong and make a run at the postseason.
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