Ranking the 10 Best Last-Minute MLB Free-Agent, Trade Values
Waiting until the last minute to improve your club is about the worst possible strategy that a general manager can employ in any sport, baseball included. While the competition for available players is far less than it is in, say, mid-December, the talent pool is significantly diminished.
That's not to say that there aren't some quality players and values to be found—as we're about to take a look at, there are. But each one comes with his own set of questions and concerns, whether he be a free agent or a potential trade acquisition.
When it comes to free agents, we're focusing only on those with some major league experience. That eliminates international free agents like Andy Ibanez, Yoan Moncada and Hector Olivera from contention.
Players are ranked in terms of their potential impact, both in 2015 and beyond. While that favors those players who bring with them more than one year of team control, it doesn't necessarily guarantee them a higher ranking than a seasoned veteran who may only be able to land a minor league or one-year deal.
Who made the cut? Let's take a look.
10. 2B Rickie Weeks, Free Agent
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2014 Stats (MIL): 121 G, .274/.357/.452, 28 XBH (8 HR), 29 RBI, 3-for-7 SB
Age on Opening Day: 32
It was only three years ago that Rickie Weeks was finishing up a five-year stretch that saw him emerge as one of the most productive second basemen in the game, posting a .255/.357/.448 slash line while averaging 18 home runs and 13 stolen bases a season and playing passable defense.
Today, Weeks has become such a defensive liability that he's generated minimal interest on a free-agent market that's devoid of any real talent at the keystone.
He's likely headed for a position change (first base, possibly), or at least to the American League, where a team can utilize him as a designated hitter and spare itself from his defensive shortcomings. While he found success against right-handed pitching in 2014, history says that he's best suited as the right-handed part of a platoon, such as he enjoyed with Scooter Gennett in Milwaukee last season.
9. SP Chris Young, Free Agent
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2014 Stats (SEA): 30 G (29 GS), 12-9, 3.65 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9, 5.5 K/9, 16 QS
Age on Opening Day: 35
Teams aren't clamoring to sign pitchers in their mid-30s, much less those with an extensive history of shoulder trouble, so it should come as no surprise to find Chris Young still unsigned despite putting up quality numbers for Seattle in 2014.
Coming off of a season that saw him carry his heaviest workload since 2007, teams are wise to have serious questions about whether he'd be able to hold up over the course of a full season again. Perhaps just as troubling are his road splits from last year—a 5.03 ERA, 1.51 WHIP and .894 OPS against.
Conversely, he was stellar at Seattle's Safeco Field, pitching to a 2.40 ERA and 0.97 WHIP while holding opponents to a .572 OPS. An extreme fly-ball pitcher who doesn't generate a ton of strikeouts, Young needs to pitch in a pitcher-friendly park in order to be at his best.
While talented, the limited market for his services and his sketchy health history prevent him from ranking any higher on our list.
8. SS Everth Cabrera, Free Agent
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2014 Stats (SD): 90 G, .232/.272/.300, 17 XBH (3 HR), 20 RBI, 18-for-26 SB
Age on Opening Day: 28
If the one smudge on Everth Cabrera's record was the 50-game suspension he received for his involvement in the Biogenesis performance-enhancing drug scandal, chances would be that he'd never hit the open market in the first place.
But it's not.
Cabrera brings with him a history of off-field baggage, from a 2012 domestic violence charge (which was dismissed) to pending litigation for driving under the influence (and possession) of marijuana and resisting arrest—the trial for which begins in April and, if convicted, could find him spending a year in jail.
Yet not even potential jail time has made him untouchable this winter. It was only a few weeks ago that CBS Sports' Jon Heyman tweeted that the 2013 All-Star could become a consideration for Toronto at second base.
That was before The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo spoke with a major league source who said that the 28-year-old had "made great strides personally," though it's fair to assume that Toronto—if interested—has been doing its own background work on the talented-but-troubled infielder.
If Cabrera can put his off-field issues behind him, the talent is there for him to become a valuable addition to any team, whether it be as a starting middle infielder or a utility player. His speed is a legitimate weapon, resulting in a 78 percent career success rate on stolen base attempts (136-for-174).
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7. RP Joba Chamberlain, Free Agent
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2014 Stats (DET): 69 G, 2-5, 3.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 2-for-6 SV
Age on Opening Day: 29
A miserable second half, a drop in velocity and a spotty injury history have worked against Joba Chamberlain this winter, but the 29-year-old is one of the more intriguing names you'll find on this list, because unlike the majority of the group, he might still have a bit of upside left.
While his numbers may not jump off the page, that they were respectable despite pitching in front of one of baseball's most inept defenses shouldn't be glossed over. Neither should the fact that he managed to stay healthy for the first time since 2010 and re-established his slider as a legitimate strikeout pitch.
He's never going to live up to the hype that surrounded him and garnered the "Joba Rules" when he broke into the majors with the New York Yankees in 2007, but he can certainly be a productive member of a bullpen as a middle reliever—perhaps more.
6. RP Rafael Soriano, Free Agent
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2014 Stats (WAS): 64 G, 4-1, 3.19 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, 8.6 K/9, 32-for-39 SV
Age on Opening Day: 35
Back in October, Rafael Soriano told James Wagner of The Washington Post that as far as he was concerned, he was still a damn fine closer, despite having lost his hold on the ninth inning in Washington down the stretch.
That's debatable, seeing as how he no longer misses bats at an elite level and needs to keep the ball up in the zone for his slider to work, which results in a high fly-ball rate and makes him a tricky fit in some of the more hitter-friendly venues around the game.
But Soriano proved that he's still tough against batters from both sides of the plate in 2014, not just left-handed bats. If he's willing to put his closing days behind him, there's no reason that he couldn't be a solid addition to a team's middle relief corps.
5. RP Francisco Rodriguez, Free Agent
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2014 Stats (MIL): 69 G, 5-5, 3.04 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9, 9.7 K/9, 44-for-49 SV
Age on Opening Day: 33
Durable and experienced, Francisco Rodriguez can still be an effective option at the back end of a team's bullpen, despite his new-found penchant for giving up the long ball.
After surrendering 48 home runs over the first nine seasons of his career, he's allowed 29 since 2012, nearly half of which came last year (14) and led all relievers. Some of that can be attributed to homer-friendly Miller Park, but all things considered, he's probably best suited for a pitcher-friendly park.
While the home runs are troubling and might preclude a team from using him in the ninth inning, he did finish an MLB-high 66 games in 2014, converted saves at a higher clip than Glen Perkins, Trevor Rosenthal and David Robertson and can still make batters swing and miss, posting a 10.0 K/9 rate since 2013.
4. SP Brandon Beachy, Free Agent
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2014 Stats (ATL): Did not pitch (injured)
Age on Opening Day: 28
When he's healthy, Brandon Beachy has shown front-of-the-rotation stuff, pitching to a 3.23 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over 46 career starts while averaging more than a strikeout per inning. But coming off his second Tommy John surgery in three years, there are serious doubts as to whether he can regain his prior form.
Rob Martin, Beachy's agent, told Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal last month that his client was continuing to make progress in his rehab and, despite interest from multiple teams, had decided to put off signing with a new club for just a bit longer.
"Brandon has decided not to sign a contract at this time. With each day his arm is getting stronger and he’s feeling even more confident about his progress. Thus, he is going to continue with his throwing program and make a decision closer to spring training."
Obviously, there's significant risk associated with signing Beachy, who probably won't be able to contribute to a team in 2015 until after the All-Star break. But his potential upside is undeniable, and that he's under team control through 2016 only makes him all the more intriguing an option.
3. SP Dillon Gee, New York Mets
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2014 Stats (NYM): 22 GS, 7-8, 4.00 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9, 6.2 K/9, 11 QS
Age on Opening Day: 28
He doesn't miss bats (career 6.5 K/9) and is prone to the long ball, but Dillon Gee's career peripherals (3.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) are solid, and he's controllable (through 2016), inexpensive (he'll make $5.3 million in 2015) and young (entering his age-29 season).
Those are only some of the reasons that multiple teams had interest in him this winter—a list that included the Colorado Rockies, San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants, per Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal.
Obviously, the Mets haven't traded him yet and don't have any plans on doing so before spring training, as general manager Sandy Alderson explained while a guest on MLB Network's High Heat hosted by former New York radio fixture Christopher "Mad Dog" Russo (per MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince).
That said, the Mets have six established starters competing for five spots in the major league rotation and a trio of big-time prospects nearly ready for The Show waiting in the wings. While the Mets don't need to make a trade, it's fair to assume that they would in the right deal.
2. OF/DH Dayan Viciedo, Free Agent
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2014 Stats (CWS): 145 G, .231/.281/.405, 46 XBH (21 HR), 58 RBI, 0-for-1 SB
Age on Opening Day: 26
Brute strength, untapped potential and multiple years of team control are enticing enough for teams to look past the red flags that pop up in their evaluation of a player, and that's why a team is eventually going to give Dayan Viciedo a second chance.
Sure, he's a notorious free-swinger, struggles to hit right-handed pitching and shouldn't be allowed to take the field with a glove on his hand. But his power is for real (60 homers since 2012) and he's young enough (entering his age-26 season) to still have some upside.
Cincinnati general manager Walt Jocketty told MLB.com's Mark Sheldon that while the Reds had interest, Viciedo is looking for more playing time than they can offer. That he wants to play everyday is understandable—it's the only way he's going to re-establish his value.
But unless a team suffers a catastrophic injury to a corner outfielder or designated hitter in spring training, the best Viciedo can probably hope for is to serve as the right-handed part of a platoon or as a team's primary bat off the bench.
1. CL Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
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2014 Stats (PHI): 66 G, 2-3, 2.04 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9, 8.5 K/9, 39-for-43 SV
Age on Opening Day: 34
Jonathan Papelbon's inclusion on this list is fully dependent on Philadelphia picking up at least half of the $26 million that he has remaining on his deal, which includes a $13 million vesting option for 2016. According to Jim Salisbury of CSN Philadelphia, both Milwaukee and Toronto are pushing the Phillies to eat that option year.
Papelbon at $6.5 million a year is a worthwhile investment. Papelbon at $13 million a year, not so much.
For all of his baggage, Papelbon remains one of the better closers in baseball. Among relievers who have made at least 180 appearances since 2012, Papelbon ranks seventh in saves (106) and 11th in ERA (2.45) and WHIP (1.03).
While age and years of wear and tear on his arm have taken something away from his fastball, Papelbon has become more adept at changing speeds to keep batters off-balance and still shows excellent command, keeping his walks to a minimum.
Of all the relievers on our list, Papelbon is the only one who comes with few questions as to his effectiveness on the field. He may not replicate his numbers from 2014, but he's still got the goods to lock down the ninth inning for a contending club.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.
Find me on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR
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