Win-Loss Projections for Power-Conference College Basketball Teams in 2014-15

Rather than wait for things to play out over the next four weeks of the men's college basketball season, we've projected the outcome of every remaining regular-season game for all power-conference teams to get a feel for where they will stand at the start of their conference tournaments.

Yes, we're still projecting that Kentucky will go undefeated.

In each of these six conferences, a few games were very difficult to project and/or crucial to the final conference hierarchy. Those are labeled and discussed as each conference's "three swing games."

After that, two teams set up for a nice run in each conference were identified and explained, as well as one team that should be expected to start or continue to drop like a brick for the next month. 

At the end of each slide, you'll find our projected standings for that conference broken into three categories: "Tournament Bound," "On the Bubble" and "Thanks for Playing." Those tiers are based on projected finish rather than current record, so try not to stress too much if you don't like the tier your favorite team is in.

Bracket Note: After removing the six auto bids from power conferences, a total of 33 power-conference teams are listed as "in the tournament" or "on the bubble." Again, excluding projected automatic bids, these nine teams from other conferences are very much in the discussion for an at-large bid, as well: Cincinnati, Colorado State, Davidson, Dayton, George Washington, Northern Iowa, SMU, Temple and Wyoming.

That brings us to a total of 42 teams jostling for 36 at-large spots. The point here is that you may not think that teams such as Clemson, Florida and Oregon are legitimately on the bubble, but these tournament bids have to come from somewhere.

RPI figures on the following slides courtesy of ESPN.com and are current through the start of play on Friday, February 6.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

Three Swing Games

Virginia at Louisville (March 7)

The first pairing between these two teams this Saturday should favor the Cavaliers in John Paul Jones Arena. However, the rematch one month later should be a huge opportunity for Louisville to claim sole possession of second place in the ACC and possibly earn a No. 1 seed—depending on how other teams along that top line shake out.

Notre Dame at Clemson (Feb. 10)

Much to our surprise after early losses to Rutgers, Winthrop and Gardner-Webb, Clemson might be one marquee win away from sneaking onto the right side of the bubble. The Tigers have road games against Duke and Notre Dame that will very likely be losses, but this home game against the Fighting Irish is their big chance to get on the map.

North Carolina at Miami (Feb. 28)

Miami has that huge road win over Duke, but, at best, that merely undoes the bad losses to Georgia Tech, Eastern Kentucky and Florida State. The Hurricanes need another RPI Top 50 win, and their only chances are this home game against North Carolina and a road game against Louisville.

Two Big Risers

Miami Hurricanes

They only have two games left against upper-echelon ACC teams, which means they're loaded with winnable games the rest of the way.

Miami has two games against Virginia Tech, home games against Clemson and Florida State and road games against Pittsburgh, Wake Forest and Boston College. They should take at least six out of those seven, though the Hurricanes haven't much subscribed to who they should and shouldn't beat this season.

Clemson Tigers

We've touched on their big opportunity against Notre Dame, but the Tigers already have six conference wins and still play two against Georgia Tech as well as home games against Virginia Tech and North Carolina State. The Tigers should win all four of those games, and they just might be able to pick up another big one along the way.

One Big Crasher

Syracuse Orange

As if the self-imposed postseason ban wasn't enough, the Orange have an absolutely brutal four-week stretch of games in front of them. They still have two games against Duke, two against Pittsburgh, one at Notre Dame and games at home against Virginia and Louisville. Good luck with that.

Projected Standings

Tournament Bound

Virginia (16-2)
Louisville (15-3)
Duke (14-4)
North Carolina (14-4)
Notre Dame (14-4)

On the Bubble

Miami (10-8)
Clemson (10-8)

Thanks for Playing

Syracuse (8-10)
NC State (8-10)
Pittsburgh (8-10)
Florida State (7-11)
Wake Forest (4-14)
Georgia Tech (3-15)
Boston College (2-16)
Virginia Tech (2-16)

Big 12

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Three Swing Games

Texas at Kansas State (Feb. 7)

With Duke playing Notre Dame and Virginia hosting Louisville, the ACC takes center stage on Saturday. However, the Big 12 also has a pair of critical games taking place.

First on our list is a battle between teams that both desperately need a win. Texas has lost four in a row and Kansas State has lost four of five. For Kansas State in particular, it's make-or-break time. The Wildcats will need at least a 10-8 conference record to make up for the 7-6 nonconference record, but it's not looking like they'll come anywhere close to that mark.

Baylor at West Virginia (Feb. 7)

The other big game on Saturday is the battle between the Bears and Mountaineers that could very likely determine which one vies for a spot in the top-16 tournament seeds.

Both teams have great RPI numbers, but Baylor could use a road/neutral win against an RPI Top 75 team. Meanwhile, West Virginia is continuously trying to win enough games to keep the selection committee from noticing a nonconference schedule that only has three games against RPI Top 100 teams.

Kansas at Oklahoma (March 7)

It's highly unlikely that this game will determine who wins the Big 12 regular-season title, but it could determine whether Kansas earns a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. These two teams put together one heck of a game in mid-January in which Kansas jumped out to a huge lead and gave it all away before eking out a home win.

Two Big Risers

Texas Longhorns

Texas has struggled mightily, but this team simply has too much talent to miss the tournament. Things eventually have to click, right?

The Longhorns still have home games against TCU, Texas Tech, Kansas State and Baylor, and they should be able to use their size to win a road game against West Virginia after beating the Mountaineers by 27 earlier this season. If the Longhorns can win this Saturday's game at shorthanded Kansas State, it should propel them to a .500 conference record.

Oklahoma Sooners

They've been hit or miss this season, but it should be smooth sailing for the next couple of weeks. Over their next six games, the Sooners play three against TCU and Texas Tech, home against Iowa State and Texas and on the road against Kansas State. If they can win that Iowa State game, they could realistically turn this three-game winning streak into nine straight wins.

One Big Crasher

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Kansas State might not win another conference game, but Oklahoma State stumbling to the finish line would actually impact the number of NCAA bids the Big 12 gets.

We'll give the Cowboys the home game against TCU and the road game against Texas Tech, but it's hard to find any other wins on their remaining schedule. They play great defense, but they don't have enough offensive weapons to really thrive in this conference.

Projected Standings

Tournament Bound

Kansas (15-3)
Iowa State (14-4)
Oklahoma (13-5)
West Virginia (11-7)
Baylor (10-8) 

On the Bubble

Texas (9-9)
Oklahoma State (8-10) 

Thanks for Playing

Kansas State (5-13)
TCU (3-15)
Texas Tech (2-16)

Big East

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Three Swing Games

Villanova at Butler (Feb. 14)

Villanova responded well to the 20-point loss to Georgetown by stringing together three straight wins by double digits. But this game comes in the middle of a four-game stretch in which the Wildcats will prove whether they deserve to be considered an elite team. Over the next 10 days, they'll host Georgetown and Seton Hall and travel to Providence and Butler.

Xavier at St. John's (Feb. 23)

Things may change considerably between now and then, but this game feels like the ultimate bubble battle. St. John's is currently 3-6 in Big East play, but it entered January in excellent shape. Xavier is 5-6 in conference and had some rough nonconference losses to UTEP, Long Beach State and Auburn.

The winner of this game might not necessarily make the tournament, but it will probably be the final nail in the NIT coffin for the loser.

Georgetown at Seton Hall (Feb. 10)

Georgetown doesn't have any losses that are bad, but the Hoyas already have seven. They still play road games against Villanova and Butler, and those once-nice-looking nonconference wins over Indiana and Florida haven't exactly aged very well. They aren't close to falling out of the field, but losing this game would considerably reduce their margin for error.

Two Big Risers

Seton Hall Pirates

Seton Hall's remaining schedule isn't very forgiving, but if the Pirates can win the aforementioned game against Georgetown, they'll be in business. They treaded water while Isaiah Whitehead was injured, but it's time to kick things up a notch with him back in the lineup.

In addition to the Georgetown game, Seton Hall still has home games against Marquette, Creighton and Providence as well as what should be a winnable road game against St. John's. We're projecting 9-9, but 10-8 is very much in play.

Providence Friars

No Big East team appears destined to rise from the ashes, but Providence should cement itself as a top-of-the-league program and perhaps rise up a bit in the national picture.

The Friars still need to play both of their games against Villanova, but we trust they'll protect home court in that game as well as the season finale against Butler.

One Big Crasher

DePaul Blue Demons

DePaul has already won six conference games, but getting to nine will be a real challenge. The Blue Demons still play two games against Butler, road games against St. John's and Georgetown and a home game against Providence. They've pulled off a few surprising upsets in conference play, but nothing quite on the magnitude of what lies ahead.

Projected Standings

Tournament Bound

Villanova (15-3)
Providence (13-5)
Butler (13-5)
Georgetown (11-7)

On the Bubble

Seton Hall (9-9)
Xavier (9-9)

Thanks for Playing

DePaul (8-10)
St. John's (7-11)
Marquette (3-15)
Creighton (2-16)

Big Ten

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Three Swing Games

Purdue at Ohio State (March 1)

Out of nowhere, Purdue has won home games against Iowa, Indiana and Ohio State just two weeks after being left for dead. The Boilermakers still have work to do. If they're in the field today, it's only by a whisker and they still have five road games left to play.

Meanwhile, Ohio State will be out for revenge after losing the first game against Purdue on Wednesday while simultaneously looking to bolster its own tournament resume. This is arguably the third-most difficult game remaining on the Buckeyes schedule, so it could be part of a hot finish.

Wisconsin at Maryland (Feb. 24)

This game has lost some luster with Maryland really floundering over the past couple of weeks, but it's still the biggest challenge remaining for both of these teams. Wisconsin is one of several teams in the discussion for the final No. 1 seed, and this game will be a major contributing factor to that decision.

Michigan State at Indiana (March 7)

Indiana is 6-4 in Big Ten play, but all four of those losses came on the road by double-digit margins—and a fifth could be lurking when the Hoosiers visit Maryland on Wednesday. One of those big losses was a 70-50 loss at Michigan State that they'll be looking to avenge in the final game of the regular season.

Two Big Risers

Iowa Hawkeyes

Iowa swept Ohio State and was swept by Wisconsin, which means the Hawkeyes have already played arguably their four toughest games of the season. In fact, after this Sunday's home game against Maryland, things get about as easy as they can in Big Ten play.

In their final eight games, the Hawkeyes host Minnesota, Rutgers, Illinois and Northwestern and travel to Nebraska, Penn State, Northwestern and Indiana. Maybe they lose at Indiana. Maybe Minnesota challenges them at home. But they could very realistically win all eight of those games.

Michigan State Spartans

This is a trust fall into Tom Izzo's coaching legacy but expect big things the rest of the way with Bryn Forbes hitting his stride and a healthy Branden Dawson recording double-doubles left and right. The Spartans probably won't win at Wisconsin, but everything else left on the schedule is a potential "W."

One Big Crasher

Nebraska Cornhuskers

The Cornhuskers are 5-5 in Big Ten play and almost, kind of, still in the NCAA tournament picture, but a lot of losses are still coming their way. They play Maryland twice, host Iowa and Wisconsin and travel to Ohio State, Purdue, Illinois and Penn State.

They better win this weekend's game against the Nittany Lions and cherish it, because it might be their last one.

Projected Standings

Tournament Bound

Wisconsin (16-2)
Michigan State (14-4)
Iowa (13-5)
Ohio State (13-5)
Maryland (13-5)

On the Bubble

Purdue (11-7)
Indiana (11-7)

Thanks for Playing

Michigan (8-10)
Illinois (8-10)
Minnesota (7-11)
Nebraska (6-12)
Northwestern (2-16)
Penn State (2-16)
Rutgers (2-16)

Pac-12

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Three Swing Games

Arizona at Utah (Feb. 28)

This is the most intriguing remaining Pac-12 game by a few hundred light-years. If we equate the anticipation for this game to the Super Bowl, every other Pac-12 game is a midweek, regular-season NHL game by comparison.

Arizona won the first game quite handily, but things could be different in Salt Lake City. Neither team is remotely concerned about making the tournament. Rather, each is jostling for position on the top few lines.

Oregon at Stanford (March 1)

Oregon is going to have one of the strangest tournament resumes because of all the injuries that have befallen teams the Ducks have played.

They lost to VCU when the Rams still had Briante Weber, lost to Michigan before the Wolverines lost Caris LeVert and beat Illinois with RayVonte Rice. They also lost to Washington with Robert Upshaw and beat the Huskies without him.

Watch your step, Chasson Randle.

Oregon State at UCLA (Feb. 11)

This is a game that both teams need to stay in the tournament discussion. UCLA has a home win over Utah and a season sweep of Stanford, but the Bruins have nine losses and did absolutely nothing of value during the nonconference portion of the season, other than lose badly to good teams. They already lost the road game to Oregon State, and getting swept by the Beavers would not look good.

Oregon State has only two RPI Top 100 wins, but one of those came against Arizona. If the Beavers can get hot and win their remaining games at UCLA, at Stanford and vs. Utah, the bubble might be soft enough to forgive their loss to Quinnipiac.

Two Big Risers

Oregon Ducks

Bizarre injury correlation aside, Oregon isn't that far removed from the right side of the bubble. The Ducks only have one RPI Top 50 win (vs. UCLA), but they also only have one loss outside the RPI Top 100—an overtime game at Washington State.

Their remaining schedule is just about identical to Oregon State's, meaning they'll get road games against UCLA and Stanford as well as a home game against Utah. Win two of those three games and avoid terrible losses elsewhere, and they'll be in respectable shape.

UCLA Bruins

The Bruins have already won six of their last eight games, and the rest of the schedule is pretty forgiving, outside of the road game against Arizona. They have home games against the Oregon schools, the Washington schools and USC that should all result in wins, and they should at least split their remaining road games against California and Arizona State.

One Big Crasher

Washington Huskies

They have already crashed pretty hard since losing Upshaw for the year, but things aren't going to get any easier. The Huskies still have four road games as well as home games against Arizona and Utah. Nigel Williams-Goss is doing the best Kemba Walker impression that he can, but there simply isn't enough talent around him to make his Herculean efforts worthwhile.

Projected Standings

Tournament Bound

Arizona (16-2)
Utah (15-3)
UCLA (12-6)
Stanford (12-6)

On the Bubble

Oregon (11-7)

Thanks for Playing

Oregon State (10-8)
Colorado (7-11)
Washington State (7-11)
Arizona State (6-12)
California (5-13)
Washington (4-14)
USC (3-15)

Southeastern Conference

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Three Swing Games

Kentucky at Florida (Feb. 7)

You may have heard that Kentucky is the only undefeated team remaining in the country, and you may recall that Kentucky and Florida have been the SEC's two best teams over the past few years.

The Gators have fallen on hard times this season, and head coach Billy Donovan described the current campaign as "very, very humbling," per Jerry Tipton of the Lexington Herald-Leader. But this is a huge game for their pride and what little remaining hope they have for a tournament bid. Ten losses isn't pretty, but beating the best team in the nation would make up for a good number of those.

Georgia at Texas A&M (Feb. 11)

Quite possibly the biggest bubble game being played in the next week, both the Bulldogs and Aggies are currently in the projected field, but it's not by much. Georgia needs a road win against a team better than Kansas State, and Texas A&M is rapidly running out of chances to add to its list of zero RPI Top 50 wins.

Ole Miss at LSU (Feb. 28)

As Eamonn Brennan eloquently worded it in his latest Bubble Watch for ESPN.com, "Before Thursday, the biggest knock on LSU's at-large chances was bad losses. After Thursday (home loss to Auburn), the biggest knock on LSU's at-large chances is even more bad losses."

The same could be said for Ole Miss, which has a few nice wins but more than its fair share of bad home losses.

This wouldn't individually be a bad loss for either team, but it's a severely blown opportunity for whichever team fails to capitalize on it.

Two Big Risers

Ole Miss Rebels

Even with the aforementioned road game against LSU, Ole Miss has a pretty clear path to the second-best record in the SEC. The Rebels do still play at Florida, but they get home games against Arkansas and Georgia—two high-RPI teams that have really struggled on the road.

Outside of that, they have home games against Tennessee and Vanderbilt and road games against Mississippi State, Auburn and Alabama—all very winnable games for a tournament-worthy team.

Georgia Bulldogs

Other than the road games against Texas A&M and Ole Miss already mentioned, a home rematch with Kentucky is the only real challenge left on Georgia's schedule. The Bulldogs still play two games against Auburn, home games against Tennessee, Missouri and South Carolina and a fairly harmless road game against Alabama. 

One Big Crasher

Tennessee Volunteers

It was a fun ride from the beginning of December through Jan. 20, as the Volunteers went 10-2 with wins over Butler, Arkansas and South Carolina. However, they have come crashing back to earth with losses in three of their last four games, and the home game against Vanderbilt might be the only "easy" win left on their schedule.

Projected Standings

Tournament Bound

Kentucky (18-0)
Ole Miss (13-5)
Arkansas (12-6)
Texas A&M (12-6)

On the Bubble

LSU (11-7)
Georgia (11-7)
Florida (10-8)

Thanks for Playing

Tennessee (8-10)
Alabama (7-11)
Mississippi State (6-12)
South Carolina (6-12)
Vanderbilt (5-13)
Auburn (4-14)
Missouri (3-15)

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.