Playing Fact or Fiction with Biggest Questions in 2014-15 NCAA Basketball

It's hard to believe it, but we're officially only four weeks from the beginning of March. If you're a college basketball fan, you know what that means—we're getting down to the nitty-gritty.

We've already seen teams get through the nonconference schedule, and now about half of the conference schedule has played out. We don't know everything—many surprises will pop up in the next two months of play—but we know a lot more than we did back in November.

So, before we go any further, let's play a little game of "fact or fiction" with the biggest questions and narratives in the 2014-15 season. 

Kentucky Will Go Undefeated

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The biggest question surrounding college basketball has been whether the Kentucky Wildcats will go undefeated.

Before the season began, the thought was that if John Calipari and his platoons could get through their tricky nonconference schedule, which featured formidable foes in Kansas, UNC, Texas and Louisville, they would be favored to make it through the regular season undefeated.

After all, the SEC isn't exactly a scary division this season. With Florida, last year's conference champs, starting a disappointing 12-9, Kentucky is the only AP Top 25 team in the SEC.

Well, Kentucky did make it through its nonconference schedule unblemished and then some. Currently, the Wildcats are 21-0, and after Virginia fell to Duke on Saturday, they are officially the last remaining unbeaten team in the league. 

There have been a few close calls—most notably an overtime win over Ole Miss followed immediately by a double-overtime win over Texas A&M early in January—but it's important for the Wildcats to get through tight games as well. As it stands, Kentucky likely won't face another ranked team until the NCAA tournament unless Arkansas, LSU or Texas A&M sneak back into the Top 25.

The Verdict: FACT

There's a reason no team has gone undefeated since Indiana did in 1976: It's nearly impossible.

However, this Kentucky team has nine players who could be NBA players in the future, and an all-star coach who is keeping them focused. Plus, they have tournament experience, having made it all the way to the final last season. This is a squad that can handle the pressure, which is why we will see the Wildcats make history this March.

The Big 12 Is the Best Conference

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Ah, the best conference debate is always a fun one to have in the middle of the season, isn't it? Well, this year, it comes down to two divisions: the Big 12 and the ACC.

Since the Big 12 is the deepest conference and is currently sitting atop the conference RPI rankings, many consider it to be most impressive conference in all the land. And there's certainly some validity to that sentiment.

After all, six Big 12 teams are currently in the AP Top 25: No. 9 Kansas, No. 15 Iowa State, No. 17 West Virginia, No. 19 Texas, No. 20 Baylor and No. 24 Oklahoma. Two other teams—Kansas State and Oklahoma State—also have a good chance at making it into the NCAA tournament.

However, the Big 12 is missing something very important: an elite team. Kansas hasn't been as good as preseason polls thought it would be, and no other team in the conference looks to have a shot at making it to the Final Four.

The Verdict: FICTION

What we have here is a battle of semantics. The Big 12 might be the toughest division from top to bottom, but the ACC is the best division.

After all, the ACC also has six teams currently ranked in the Top 25: No. 2 Virginia, No. 4 Duke, No. 8 Notre Dame, No. 10 Louisville, No. 13 North Carolina and No. 23 Miami. N.C. State also could be a tournament team.

So while the 15-team ACC has more irrelevant teams than the 10-team Big 12, it currently boasts five of the top 15 teams in the country. Moreover, Virginia and Duke are both potential No. 1 seeds, while Notre Dame, Louisville and even UNC could be potential Final Four spoilers.

As Ryan Neu of The Sports Quotient said to USA Today, "Excluding the cellar of the conference, the quality of teams in the ACC is much higher than that of the Big 12 and that's why it's the best conference in the country."

Jahlil Okafor Is Player of the Year

Ellen Ozier/Associated Press

Beyond the best-conference debate, the best-player debate is the one most likely held in bars across the country during college basketball season.

This year, the debate essentially comes down to two big men: Duke freshman Jahlil Okafor and Wisconsin senior Frank Kaminsky. (You wouldn't be considered crazy if you considered Notre Dame senior point guard Jerian Grant on that list either.)

Okafor was the favorite at the beginning of the season, though, and nothing much has changed in the weeks since. At 6'11" with unparalleled strength, versatility and feel for the game, the freshman couldn't hide from the spotlight even if he wanted to.

Duke's star told Gary Parrish of CBS Sports before the season began that the hype didn't bother him one bit:

"

When I step on the court, it really doesn't matter if I'm a freshman or a senior. It's basketball, and I've been playing basketball my entire life. So I feel extremely confident about going out there and playing against anybody and feeling unstoppable and being just as dominant as I have been in my previous years of playing basketball. So somebody saying I can't [be National Player of the Year] because I'm a freshman is kinda ludicrous to me.

"

The Verdict: FACT

With per-game averages of 18.3 points and 9.4 rebounds to date, Okafor has been every bit as good as everyone thought he would be.

Duke's center has been the best player in college basketball so far this year, and unless something drastic shifts, he'll get the Wooden Award at the end of the season.

Duke Is the Best Team in the ACC

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We've already discussed how top-heavy the ACC is this season. So, considering the crowd of contenders, there has been an ongoing debate about which team is the best in the conference.

Before the season began, Duke was the pick. The Duke freshmen, with Jahlil Okafor at the forefront, were supposed to be only second to Kentucky's in the nation, and the Blue Devils were widely considered the team most likely to take down the Wildcats in the NCAA tournament.

With all of that in mind, ACC writers picked Duke as the preseason favorite in the stacked conference. 

Duke hasn't been invincible this season, though. The Blue Devils have been great on offense but have struggled mightily on defense, making the switch from man-to-man to zone midseason. They have also had a rocky start to ACC play, losing to N.C. State, Miami and Notre Dame already.

For most of the season, Duke has trailed the University of Virginia in the AP Top 25 because the Cavaliers got off to a stunning 19-0 start with big-time wins over Maryland and Notre Dame. But the Blue Devils gave UVA its first loss of the season on Saturday, prevailing 69-63.

The Verdict: FICTION

This might be a controversial ruling considering how Duke just beat Virginia on the road, but the Cavaliers still get the nod over the Devils as the ACC's best.

That's because not only has Virginia been much more consistent than Duke, taking care of business against lesser teams, but the Cavaliers also have the best defense in the country, currently sitting at No. 1 in fewest points allowed per game. 

Both teams have some big challenges remaining—Duke still has two games against UNC and a rematch against Notre Dame on the schedule, while Virginia faces UNC next and has two duels with Louisville to come—so there are still plenty of chances for both teams to impress or disappoint.

But Virginia's consistency and defense make it the best of the ACC so far this season.

Wisconsin Will Run Away with the Big Ten

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Coming into the season, the Big Ten was expected to star Wisconsin and, well, Wisconsin. With Frank Kaminsky coming back for his senior year, the Badgers weren't thought to have a rival in the conference. The biggest question was who the No. 2 team would be.

Well, it turns out that Wisconsin is just as good as everyone thought it would be. The Badgers currently sit at No. 5 in the AP Top 25 and have gotten off to a 18-2 start to the season, with their only losses coming to Duke and an inspired Rutgers squad.

However, the Big Ten touts some other surprisingly frisky teams this year, most notably Maryland. The newbie Terrapins have been a revelation in their first year in the Big Ten, starting 18-4 and 6-3 in the conference. Currently, they're ranked No. 16 in the AP Top 25, though they've been as high as No. 11. 

Verdict: FACT

While there was talk earlier in January that Maryland could challenge Wisconsin for the conference title, the Terrapins have fallen a bit back to earth recently, losing by 19 to Indiana and 24 to Ohio State.

The Big Ten is still very much Wisconsin's division to lose.

The Mid-Major Conferences Will Be Dominated by the Usual Teams

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Each year we look to the mid-majors to see if we can find a potential Cinderella well before March Madness begins. Well, this year, outside of the schools nobody really considers as mid-majors anymore—Wichita State, Gonzaga and VCU—it didn't look like there was going to be a team that could make an impact in the NCAA tournament.

After all, those three teams were all ranked in the Top 15 in the preseason. The only other team from a mid-major conference that was ranked was Harvard (tied for 25th), but the Crimson Tide weren't really expected to be able to push any of the top teams.

So, yet another season when only the big-name schools with the big-time money get success, right?

Verdict: FICTION

Not so fast. Watch out for Northern Iowa. The Panthers have come out of nowhere this season to amass a 20-2 record and move up to No. 18 in the AP Top 25. They even defeated Wichita State to jump to the top of the Missouri Valley Conference standings. 

When I say nobody saw this coming, I mean it—in the preseason mid-major power rankings over at SB Nation's Mid-Major Madness, Northern Iowa was ranked 12th out of 15 schools.

The Panthers are the real deal—they are sixth in the nation in points allowed and 23rd in the nation in field-goal percentage—and they have the talent on both sides of the ball to do some damage in March. If you wanted some fresh mid-major blood, you've got it. 

Arizona Is a Legitimate Title Contender

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Is this the year for Sean Miller to finally lead his team to the Final Four and compete for the national title? That was the question on everyone's mind heading into the season.

The Wildcats were No. 2 in the nation in the preseason poll, and most considered them big-time contenders for the title. Reid Forgrave of Fox Sports did a good job explaining why:

"

Aside from Kentucky’s juggernaut of McDonald’s All-Americans, there’s no team better equipped to make a run at the national title this season than Miller’s Arizonasquad. Sorry, Duke and Wisconsin, but it’s Arizona that appears to have it all. The Wildcats have the talent, with two players projected as possible lottery picks (freshman Stanley Johnson and sophomore Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, both versatile multi-position guys) and two players projected as later NBA draft picks (sophomore power forward Brandon Ashley and junior center Kaleb Tarczewski). They have the coaching, with a choking pack-line defense that was the nation’s most efficient a year ago and which players have told me will be even better this season.

"

Well, Arizona has done a pretty good job of living up to expectations so far this year—the Wildcats are 18-2 and firmly in control of the Pac-12 after their 69-51 victory over Utah in mid-January. Sure, their losses to UNLV and Oregon State were jarring, but almost every team has a couple of those early in the season.

The Verdict: FACT

Arizona took a tumble in the rankings after it lost to UNLV and Oregon State, but after a six-game winning streak, the Wildcats are back up to No. 6 in the rankings. The rest of their schedule is pretty straightforward, which should allow them to win out and head into the tournament on a roll.

Arizona will make the Final Four and contend for the title for the same reasons Forgrave named before the season—and mostly because Miller is far too good of a coach to keep stumbling in the second weekend of the tourney.

The team is good. The coach is great. Arizona will be dangerous in March.