Ranking the Top 20 Men's Players After the 2015 Australian Open
The 2015 Australian Open was another blockbuster success featuring all manners of upsets, memorable matches and a hard-fought final between Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. In the end, Djokovic lifted up the year's first Grand Slam trophy and matched Jimmy Connors, Ivan Lendl and Andre Agassi with his eighth career major.
There was more shifting in the ATP Rankings, and tennis is the sport where it matters most: Future seedings, draws and titles will all be impacted by the perpetual computer tabulations. Nobody moves forward without having to get up the next day to train better than ever before.
The following slides are a power ranking of the best players. These especially reflect who has played well recently and who is in pole position to race ahead in the weeks and months ahead. Our rankings also favor the second-tier players who are most dangerous to the top contenders.
20-16. G. Lopez, Goffin, Robredo, F. Lopez, Anderson
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20. Guillermo Garcia Lopez: Journeyman never made fourth round of Grand Slam until 2014 French Open, but now has added Australia to the list. He likes playing Stanislas Wawrinka (defeated him in 2014 French Open first round) and should have gone five sets with him had he not lost set points.
19. David Goffin: Second-round exit but trending upward since his 2014 summer tear. Wonderful all-court skills and should be a thorn in the side of anyone who lets down his guard as winter and spring tournaments roll along.
18. Tommy Robredo: Has probably peaked for the last time, but should do well into the clay-court season. Plenty of savvy and toughness, and has seen too much in his career to get rattled in big matches.
17. Feliciano Lopez: Another 30-something Spaniard peaking late in his career. Amazing how players in the current ATP have learned to take care of themselves and extend their careers for nice livings. Lopez is never an easy out, but it's unlikely he will go deep in the biggest tournaments either.
16. Kevin Anderson: Still another example of why youngsters like Bernard Tomic, Dominic Thiem and Jiri Vesely have their work cut out for them to move into the Top 20. It's becoming a gradual career achievement for veterans rather than a birthright for newbies. Anderson didn't play badly in his fourth-round loss to Nadal, but unraveled thereafter.
15-11. Monfils, Kyrgios, Tsonga, Gulbis, Dimitrov
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15. Gael Monfils: Now we arrive at a group of athletic and dangerous players, the ones that make the stars nervous with their athleticism and talent but are enigmatic and erratic. Monfils is one of those players who could still win some big tournaments but will never rival David Ferrer's heart and consistency.
14. Nick Kyrgios: I know, he's only ranked No. 35 on the ATP World Rankings, and many tennis fans feel he should pay his due and earn his way into the Top 20. But he has already been a quarterfinalist at Wimbledon and Australia and defeated Rafael Nadal. He is the first teenager since Roger Federer (2001) to reach two major quarterfinals. Would any of the top stars really rather face Gilles Simon or Roberto Bautista Agut? Kyrgios is still potential, but he's already arrived as a legitimate threat. Just wait until he gets more months and big matches. It's happening now.
13. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: How can he steamroll huge stars to dominate the Rogers Cup and then quietly return to also-ran status?
12. Ernests Gulbis: Speaking of head-scratchers, Gulbis went from being a dark-horse semifinal pick to a first-round flameout. We never know what to expect, but the past two years he has been very strong entering the North American and European tour. Will he climb near the top, or will time run out on his big tennis dreams?
11. Grigor Dimitrov: Very strong through his 2014 Wimbledon semifinals appearance but seemed to hit a wall thereafter. Still easy to love his talented skills, but will coach Roger Rasheed push him up or wear him out? This year could foreshadow the rest of his career.
10. David Ferrer
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ATP Ranking: 10
David Ferrer is still kicking and screaming as younger players try to drag him out of the Top 10. Nobody defeats Father Time, but these days Ferrer has less luck trying to vanquish Kei Nishikori (five consecutive losses in less than one year).
Ferrer looked old and punchless in his fourth-round defeat to the Japanese star, but more of the credit should be given to Nishikori's superior anticipation and quickness. Ferrer can usually find an edge against everyone else, something at least, but Nishikori does everything better than Ferrer.
Somehow, Ferrer will keep finding points if he has to travel to remote areas of the earth or play inside chain-linked fences. He cannot win huge titles, but the accumulation of his exhausting schedule makes him a unique star. If there is one player who deserves an Andres Gomez moment (1990 French Open) from the tennis gods, it would be Ferrer.
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9. Milos Raonic
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ATP Ranking: 6
Is Milos Raonic the most limited player in the Top 10? He's basically an upgraded version of John Isner. Until he can complement his humongous serve with a more complete artillery, he will continue to be a heavyweight puncher who cannot throw jabs or dance.
Suppose he had David Goffin's skills to go with his serve? The reality of his upside is to see him become this generation's Goran Ivanisevic, play blast-away Bingo and string together a magical run when nobody expects it.
Props to Raonic for making the quarterfinals, but he really had no chance against Novak Djokovic. Yet, Raonic remains optimistic, telling ATP World Tour that he is getting closer to being with the very best:
"I play for the opportunity to have a shot against the big guys at the big Slams…I feel like I'm constantly improving. I feel happy with the team I have around me. It's about getting close to my goals. I feel like I'm on the right track for that.
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8. Tomas Berdych
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ATP Ranking: 7
I still feel this way about Tomas Berdych.
The highlight for Berdych was obliterating his 17-match losing streak to Rafael Nadal in the fourth round. His run to the quarterfinals was as precise and efficient as a surgeon's hand but full of extra bite and verve, something which might be credited a little too much to the addition of coach Daniel Vallverdu.
Still, he fell flat when it mattered most against Andy Murray, not that he didn't try to execute his game plan more aggressively, coming in and blasting anything short.
So there are positive signs moving forward, but the Czech's problem has never been a lack of consistency but rather the capability of winning three huge matches in a row. That's all it would take for at least a splash of immortality (Juan Martin del Potro and Marin Cilic are nodding their heads in agreement).
But time is closing in on Berdych, and it's 2015 or bust.
7. Marin Cilic
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ATP Ranking: 8
He missed the Australian Open with a shoulder injury, but as holder of the U.S. Open title, Marin Cilic deserves this spot. Once a Grand Slam champion, there is always the proof that he can get it done and the possibility of another.
He's been broken down a bit since late 2014, but at age 26, there will be more prime opportunities ahead.
6. Kei Nishikori
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ATP Ranking: 5
Kei Nishikori is showing that he belongs near the top five players in the world. He crushed David Ferrer once again in storming to the quarterfinals, but the ride abruptly ended in a straight-sets loss to Stanislas Wawrinka.
He did not play that badly, but he was overpowered by Wawrinka's bigger strokes and timely control of big points. On another day, (like his U.S. Open victory against Wawrinka) Nishikori's persistent and creative hitting could have been enough. But it also points out what we've been saying about other bridesmaids: Can he win three huge matches in a row to close out a major title?
Nishikori is progressing, preparing well and does not lack in fighting spirit. What he needs is a bit of help in the late stages of a draw, perhaps an upset or two, an off day from an opponent or the performance of his life when it matters.
Right now, he looks like a promising contender for some big titles, but he has a few others standing in line before him.
5. Stanislas Wawrinka
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ATP Ranking: 9
I don't care what the ATP ranking says, Wawrinka bludgeoned Kei Nishikori and set up another five-setter with Novak Djokovic. We are left wondering if he could have overpowered Andy Murray to defend his Australian Open crown and silence the whispers of all naysayers who wish to defend Rafael Nadal's back injury a year ago.
But Wawrinka probably has a bad taste in his mouth right now. He was spotty and sprayed out 69 unforced errors, seemingly ambiguous about when to go for his shots and wondering how to attack Novak Djokovic's unusually inconsistent attack to the center of the court.
His ranking takes a hit, meaning that he will deal with stronger opponents a little earlier in his draws. And he will not be favored to defend Monte Carlo. He proved that he belongs as a major contender, but he needs to sharpen his attack with more margin. It's a fine line for him to walk, but there should be a couple of good moments ahead in 2015.
4. Rafael Nadal
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ATP Ranking: 3
As usual we ponder the injuries, conditioning and comebacks of Rafael Nadal as if it were a serial thriller. Let's skip that and discuss what's next.
Nadal showed plenty of signs of his old self at Australia. His strokes can keep winning major titles because he has the intelligence to employ his unusual arsenal. The legs and footwork will need the stamina to transition his attack from defense to offense. That's more important to him now late in his career as he has relied on being more offensive.
Best of all, Nadal is probably irritated right now. Publicly, he dismissed his chances before the Australian Open, but his fourth-round loss to Tomas Berdych had him plotting for nothing less than his best tennis, according to his interview in USA Today:
"I need to … try to be strong, accepting everything, and working hard to be back the way that I want to be. When I say 'be back,' I don't mean win or lose, I mean have the feeling on court that when you are there you feel confident, you feel you can compete against everybody with equal conditions.
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He has to defend his French Open points for what seems like the thousandth time, but there's every reason to think that he can clean up with more points at tournaments that did not go well in 2014. We're looking at you, Indian Wells, Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Rome.
3. Roger Federer
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ATP Ranking: 2
He's the clear No. 2 player in accumulating points the past year, but Roger Federer will not usually be the favorite for the bigger tournaments until perhaps Wimbledon. He is certainly right there with the handful of stars in the Top 5, and one inexplicable loss to Andreas Seppi should not overturn the hard work and all-around game he is still showing.
It remains to be seen just how much or little Federer will play Davis Cup, or how many mid-majors he will follow through with. If he can snag either Indian Wells or Miami, and play deep into a couple of clay-court tournaments, he should be strong for the deep summer.
Really, Federer is playing to win another major, and everything else in the sport is trivial. History is still giving curtain calls to the Swiss Maestro, and tennis fans around the world will watch his every success.
2. Andy Murray
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ATP Ranking: 4
Murray defied the naysayers and exceeded most of the pre-Australian Open predictions. He barnstormed through the bottom of the bracket, humbling youngsters Grigor Dimitrov and Nick Kyrgios and knocking back Tomas Berdych. Best of all, Murray was healthy and back to form once again.
But the loser in a major final always has to look back with regret. He botched the 11th point of the first-set tiebreaker. He needed another 20 minutes in the second set after missing his first set point. He had Djokovic on the ropes in the third set and he imploded—his game, emotions, composure and mind.
Murray has rarely been Djokovic's equal, but 41 winners and 49 unforced errors simply cannot deliver a major title. Djokovic cruised to 53-40 in those respective categories, the disparity stretched with the fourth-set bagel.
We are bumping Murray past Federer because of his effort here at Australia and the likelihood that his form and energy will help him contend better in the months ahead. There will be better times ahead, but only a major title will wash away the frustration he must be feeling right now.
1. Novak Djokovic
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ATP Ranking: 1
Consider that Novak Djokovic has been the best player of the past four years. He has pushed his body, stretched his mind and tapped into his heart. He is usually the favorite wherever he plays, so he must deal with the aftermath of either a) He was supposed to win anyway OR b) Well, he couldn't get it done. What's wrong?
It's an entirely different set of expectations than the fervor and excitement surrounding rivals Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal each time they broke records or blazed new trails. He still feels like an underrated champion despite his historic achievements. More on this in a forthcoming article.
The undisputed King of Australia and eight-time major winner sets up the possibility of his best year since 2011. It will be written a thousand times until Roland Garros has decided his fate, but the French Open is all that matters right now.
No matter how the rest of the rankings shape up, Novak Djokovic is the best player in the world. How long will this continue? There's no let-up in sight.
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