Stock Watch for Possible 2015 NCAA Tournament 'Bubble' Teams

It's getting to be about that time in the college basketball season when terms like "bubble" and "RPI" are fully integrated back into the national lexicon, and we have identified 10 entities on the bubble whose stock has either risen or fallen at a meteoric rate since the start of conference play.

If you had told us in the beginning of January that St. John's and Washington would be out of the projected field while teams like Texas A&M and Tulsa are knocking at the door for an at-large bid, we might have had you committed to an insane asylum.

That's exactly what has happened, though. It doesn't take long for luck to completely turn in this game, and these next 10 teams and conferences should be plenty of proof of that.

Please note that this is not a full list of teams currently on the bubble. Far from it, in fact, as the bubble is currently a gigantic amorphous blob that consists of probably 75 teams. Rather, this is a sampling of teams that have been the biggest risers and nose-divers over the course of the past several weeks.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane: Up

John Locher/Associated Press

Southeastern Oklahoma State: 69

Tulsa: 66

If you're having trouble remembering what conference the SE Oklahoma State Savage Storm play in, that's because the Golden Hurricane—let the record show that this arguably was the best pairing of meteorological phenomenons—lost to the D-II school in mid-December.

That should have been the end of their season. They were 5-4 without a quality win and suffered a season-opening loss to Oral Roberts. They even proceeded to fall to 5-5 with a 19-point home loss to Oklahoma three days later.

But Tulsa hasn't lost since.

After beating Missouri State and Incarnate Word, the Golden Hurricane have gone 8-0, including wins over Connecticut, Memphis and Temple.

The question now becomes: How bad was that loss?

A few years ago, Syracuse lost a preseason exhibition game to D-II Le Moyne College before going on to earn a No. 1 seed in that year's tournament, but I can't recall the last time we had to really consider the merits of a tournament resume that included an in-season loss to a non-Division I school.

Coupled with the fact that Tulsa went 0-3 against nonconference RPI Top 100 teams, the Golden Hurricane might produce the most enigmatic resume in recent history.

Because of 10 straight wins, though, they're at least in the conversation. That certainly wasn't the case a few weeks ago.

St. John's Red Storm: Down

Frank Franklin II/Associated Press

While the Golden Hurricane are on the rise, the Red Storm are on the steep decline.

Those darn weather patterns are so unpredictable.

St. John's entered Big East play ranked No. 15 in the AP Top 25 with an 11-1 record. D'Angelo Harrison and company had nice wins over Minnesota, Syracuse, Saint Mary's and Long Beach State with nothing but a close loss to Gonzaga working against them.

Since then, though, woof.

The Red Storm have lost six of their last eight games, including losses against DePaul and Creighton. Harrison has been playing through a calf injury. Rysheed Jordan mysteriously left the team for one game and strained his patellar tendon not long after returning.

What was already a short rotation is playing at far less than 100 percent and seemingly losing more steam.

If they feel so inclined, there's still plenty of time to right the ship. ESPN's Joe Lunardi had the Red Storm smack dab on the bubble three days ago, and they still have a plethora of opportunities at key wins over the next six-plus weeks. The difference between a month ago and today is that now they actually need quality wins to make up for all those losses.

Texas A&M Aggies: Up

USA TODAY Sports

Texas A&M looked good for the first two months of the season. The Aggies nearly beat Dayton back when the Flyers were at full strength and Texas A&M was not, and then we all remember the double-overtime game against Kentucky earlier this month.

But they desperately needed some quality wins. A 9-5 record with nothing better than a neutral-court win over New Mexico to their credit barely even sufficed as an NIT resume, let alone grounds for inclusion in the NCAA tournament.

In winning five straight to get to 14-5, though, Texas A&M picked up a pair of crucial road wins over LSU and Tennessee.

Knowing the SEC over the past few seasons, it almost seems inevitable that the Aggies will be on the bubble along with at least one of those two teams in early March, and those wins should serve them nicely in the head-to-head comparisons.

There's still much more work to be done, though.

Those wins got the Aggies in the door, but can they close it? They have an absolutely massive homestand coming up in mid-February when they host Georgia, Florida and LSU in the span of seven days.

Talk about a make-or-break week.

Conference USA: Down

USA TODAY Sports

For a while there, it looked like Conference USA might be headed for at least two bids this season. Heck, it was a foregone conclusion a little over one week ago.

But then Jan. 22 happened—a date that will live in infamy for this mid-major conference.

Louisiana Tech lost to North Texas—the Bulldogs' second awful loss of the season with no quality wins to make up for them.

On the same night, UTEP lost at Western Kentucky before suffering a much more unforgivable loss to Marshall two days later.

Also on the same night, Old Dominion lost at Middle Tennessee and followed UTEP's formula for disaster by losing to UAB on the 24th.

Bringing everything full circle, Western Kentucky lost to Louisiana Tech on Thursday night.

In the span of eight days, the top four teams in C-USA suffered six losses. Parity has been a great thing for the Big 12 and the Big East, but it may have just completely killed this conference's hope of securing multiple bids.

SMU Mustangs: Up

USA TODAY Sports

It's almost impossible to be more quietly on fire than SMU has been over the past two months.

What makes it particularly bizarre is that—aside from Connecticut and Kentucky—the Mustangs were probably the most talked about team from 2014 Selection Sunday through the start of this season. 

They were regarded as the biggest snub from last year's NCAA tournament, but with one of the top incoming freshmen in the country (Emmanuel Mudiay), they were also considered a potential sleeper for a Final Four run this season.

Then Mudiay left to play in China and Markus Kennedy was ruled academically ineligible for the first semester. They lost three of their first five games and were written off as a bust.

Since losing to Arkansas in late November, though, the Mustangs are 15-1 and seated somewhat comfortably in the tournament picture.

However, things start getting pretty tough after this weekend's home game against UCF.

The Mustangs haven't yet played either of their games against Tulsa or Connecticut. They still have a road game against Memphis and home games against Cincinnati and Temple. They are undeniably still on the rise—especially with Kennedy really starting to hit his stride—but that could also change in a hurry.

Washington Huskies: Down

Gene Sweeney Jr./Getty Images

There might not be a team in the country that has had a worse five-week stretch than the Washington Huskies.

On Christmas Day, they were 11-0 and ranked No. 13 in the country. One of the biggest positive surprises of the first seven weeks of the season, Washington had wins over San Diego State and Oklahoma on its completely unexpected quest for an undefeated season.

At the crux of it all was Fresno State transfer Robert Upshaw. The 7-footer came out of seemingly nowhere to become the nation's best shot-blocker and the anchor in the paint for Nigel Williams-Goss and company.

But then the wheels came off.

Home losses to Stony Brook and Washington State bookended a four-game losing streak. The Huskies briefly turned things around before getting blown out by Utah and subsequently learning that their savior in the paint had been dismissed from the team.

According to Percy Allen of The Seattle Times, Washington head coach Lorenzo Romar said, "We have to readjust a little bit with [Upshaw] being out of there. It'll impact us mostly on the defensive end...You can't replace what he does and what he did protecting the rim."

Readjust a little bit? Ladies and gentlemen, the honor for biggest understatement of the season goes to Lorenzo Romar!

They had already dropped onto the wrong side of the bubble before losing to Stanford in their first game without Upshaw.

There's still time to turn things around. Those early quality wins do still count. However, there's no denying that they've dug themselves quite the hole.

Stanford Cardinal: Up

USA TODAY Sports

Entering play on Wednesday, there were at least arguments to be made for Oregon, Oregon State and Washington as bubble teams out of the Pac-12. But Oregon and Oregon State were beaten by the Arizona schools by a combined 52-point margin, and Washington lost at home by 10 points to Stanford.

As a result, the Pac-12's tournament picture is becoming pretty clear: Arizona and Utah are locks for the tournament, Stanford is looking pretty good, and everyone else is just trying to ruin things for those three teams.

Beating the slumping and shorthanded Huskies pushed Stanford's conference record to 6-2. The only losses were in double-overtime at UCLA and a seven-point loss to Arizona in which the Cardinal became the first team to score 80 points against the Wildcats in nearly two full years.

And while Stanford takes care of business in the Pac-12, its worst loss of the season has been getting better too, as DePaul is inexplicably 5-4 in Big East play.

If DePaul's RPI continues to improve, it would be a huge coup for a Stanford resume that doesn't have much sustenance to absorb the ramifications of a bad loss. Unless Wofford miraculously remains in the RPI Top 50 or Stanford plans on winning a road game against either Arizona or Utah, it might finish the season with just one RPI Top 50 win (at Texas in overtime).

We'll worry about that nitty-gritty business later on down the road, though. For now, the Cardinal have won nine of their last 11 to get to a point where quality of wins and losses would merely dictate their seed rather than their inclusion.

ACC Team No. 6: Down

USA TODAY Sports

Virginia, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Duke and Louisville are locks for the tournament. It would take some kind of historic collapse for that to change.

Unfortunately for the rest of the conference, Duke is the only one sharing the love. Those five teams have suffered a combined seven conference losses, but five have been to each other, making Duke's losses to Miami and North Carolina State the only quality wins doled out in conference to bubble teams.

And while quality wins come at a premium, those second-tier teams aren't doing much to help themselves out.

Miami was blown out at home by Georgia Tech on Wednesday night—adding to a list of bad home losses that already included Green Bay and Eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile, North Carolina State has lost four out of five since its win over Duke, including Wednesday night's bad home loss to Clemson.

Elsewhere, Syracuse has lost three of its last four and Pittsburgh is 3-5 in ACC play with losses to Clemson and Virginia Tech.

What once looked like an eight- or nine-bid league is suddenly having trouble producing a sixth team worthy of an invite.

Ohio State Buckeyes: Up

USA TODAY Sports

As the world counted down to 2015, Ohio State was 11-3 without anything resembling a quality win—unless you count the home game against Marquette, in which case we seriously question your definition of "quality."

What we saw on the court was very impressive. D'Angelo Russell was clearly one of the most valuable freshmen in the country. Shannon Scott had adapted well to his increased role in the backcourt. Marc Loving was a three-point assassin in the starting lineup, and Kam Williams was another one off the bench.

Not much of anything in the frontcourt, but obviously a talented team, nonetheless.

But the computer resume was horrendous. Worse than horrendous, really. All 11 wins came at home against teams that currently rank outside the RPI Top 95. Eight of them are outside the RPI Top 150.

The Buckeyes desperately needed to do some damage in a Big Ten conference that isn't nearly as loaded with opportunities for quality wins as it has been in years past.

So far, so good. After recent dominant wins over Indiana and Maryland, Ohio State has won six out of eight to improve to 17-5 with no bad losses.

There are still a lot of potential landmines on the schedule—two games each against Penn State and Purdue, a home game against Nebraska and a road game against Rutgers, most notably—but as long as the Buckeyes can avoid those bad losses, they've probably done enough in the quality wins department to ultimately secure a bid.

Wyoming Cowboys: Down

USA TODAY Sports

Wyoming has a nonconference strength of schedule that ESPN rates as the 338th-toughest (14th-weakest) in the country. The Cowboys ill-advisedly played home games against Florida A&M, Stetson and Montana State while going 1-2 versus RPI Top 150—and that one win over Colorado doesn't look so great now that the Buffaloes are 11-9 overall.

But we were willing to overlook those transgressions after three nice conference wins—at Colorado State and home victories against Boise State and UNLV. At that time, the Cowboys were 13-2 verus D-I teams with a 4-0 record in a Mountain West Conference that has produced at least two NCAA tournament teams in 13 consecutive seasons.

Then they lost at home to San Diego State and played a combined four overtimes against Fresno State and New Mexico before losing to Utah State—all in two weeks' time.

Word to the wise, Wyoming: When you already have a horrible computer profile from the nonconference portion of the season, it's not a good idea to woefully fail the eye test in conference play.

At this point, the Cowboys might need to win their next 10 games to get an at-large bid. While losses to San Diego State, Colorado State, New Mexico or UNLV wouldn't necessarily be bad, they desperately need those quality wins. And any losses elsewhere on the schedule would be even worse than the loss to Utah State.

It was always going to be tough for them to get in, but they have made it a whole lot tougher than it needed to be.

Statistics on the following slides courtesy of ESPN.com, KenPom.com and Sports-Reference.com and are current through the end of play on Thursday, Jan. 29. 

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.