Why DeMarco Murray Can Survive High-Usage Cliff, Continue Strong in 2015

IRVING, Texas — You ever heard the saying "what will make you laugh will make you cry"?

Well, consider Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray and his breakout 2014 season. He played 16 games for the first time in his career and recorded career highs with 392 carries and 1,845 yards, which led the NFL and surpassed Hall of Famer Emmitt Smith’s single-season franchise record.

Yet Murray has gone from the high of his record-setting performance to having his usage and success be used against him in free agency.

It’s called the 370 curse. It’s based on the history of running backs who have fallen off the cliff the year after notching 370 or more carries in a season.

The decline is more dramatic for backs who have 390 or more carries like Murray and who also had 57 touches as a receiver.

Here is a piece about the issue from Football Docs on Seattle Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch.

Outside of the devaluation of the running back position across the league, the concern about whether Murray can avoid the 370 curse is one of the biggest factors in the Cowboys’ apparent hesitance to sign him to a long-term contract extension.

Murray is an unrestricted free agent and certain to cash in on his big season with a huge contract in free agency.

Tight end Jason Witten doesn't want him to leave:

"

Witten: It's "silly" to think @DeMarcoMurray can be easily replaced: http://t.co/f1wQ0rjOO0 pic.twitter.com/5nYQSKHvfO

— NFL (@nfl) January 24, 2015"

The Cowboys are saying all the right things about Murray, but they have yet to make progress on a new deal. They haven’t even tendered a legitimate contract offer since a four-year, $16 million offer in September. And that was well before Murray went beast mode.

“My bet is I’d bet on DeMarco,” owner Jerry Jones said. “I think he’s going to continue to thrive. DeMarco continues to get better as a pro. I think it’s kind of set in on him what it takes to be successful in this league. He’s certainly a big, strong, physical back. He does everything the right way. He represents the Cowboys not only incredibly on the field, but he’s a great guy off the field. He’s the type of player who we want in this organization.”

The fact is that the Cowboys haven’t shown they want Murray back with a legitimate offer in months.

But Jones is right in that Murray, 26, is a good bet to beat the odds and avoid the 370 curse because of his age, work ethic and limited use before the breakout heavy-carry season in 2014.

The backs who supposedly succumbed to the curse are Larry Johnson, Jamal Anderson, Terrell Davis, Jamal Lewis, Emmitt Smith, Michael Turner, Jerome Bettis, Earl Campbell, Curtis Martin, Marcus Allen, Ricky Williams, Christian Okoye and Shaun Alexander.

But for many of those backs, their big-carry season came late in their careers and after a number of high-usage seasons before that, thus adding to the wear and tear that precipitated the subsequent drop-off.

Murray’s previous career high was 217 last season, and he had just 164 and 161 carries in his first two seasons in the league in 2011 and 2012, respectively.

Rob Carr/Getty Images

So the impact of the workload in 2014 shouldn’t be as dramatic.

“I see it as a positive. It didn’t surprise me,” coach Jason Garrett said of Murray’s carries and durability.“ A lot of people since DeMarco came out of college talked about he’s injury-prone, he’s this, he’s that. That’s the nature of the National Football League. It’s hard for all these guys who go through the pounding week in and week out to stay healthy.

"And there was never anything about me that felt he was fragile. In fact, it was the exact opposite. He was tough, he was downhill, he finishes, that’s the kind of player he is. He demonstrated that all year long. What he did for our team was significant. His mindset, his mentality, his demeanor, his toughness, I think that really, really helped the identity of our football team. In many ways, he established the identity of our football team.” 

And on the flip side to the what-will-make-you-laugh-will-make-you-cry conundrum is that some credit the Cowboys' dominant offensive line for much of Murray’s success.

Well, that dominant offensive line, which featured Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith, Pro Bowl center Travis Frederick and Pro Bowl right guard Zack Martin, also meant Murray often went untouched until he hit the secondary, limiting the amount of hits he took. That should be considered a positive on his ledger.

Watch how many times Murray goes untouched to the second level of the defense against the New Orleans Saints in Week 4.

It’s true as well that some backs were adversely affected by a dramatic increase in carries from one year to the next, which also played a role in them dropping off the 370 cliff. But it must be noted Murray’s limited use before 2014 was about a lack of opportunities rather than an inability to handle the load.

As Garrett pointed out, Murray at his core is a big, physical back who can be the bell cow of an offense, which he proved in record fashion in 2014.

There is no real reason why he can’t do it again and again, especially behind that offensive line in Dallas.

So forget the buyers beware about purchasing a high-mileage vehicle on its last leg because of the 370 curse. Murray is a powerful running machine, and he is just getting started.

“I don’t want to get into the business of things,” Garrett said. “There’s business that applies to coaches, that applies to players and we’ll get to all that. One thing that we’ve got to be abundantly clear on, this is a hell of a football player and he had a huge impact on our team.

"I understand that running backs aren’t getting drafted in the first round and all that kind of stuff, and there are concerns about longevity with this position. But this is a great football player who made a huge impact on our team this year. He’s got a lot of good years of football ahead of him.”

 
Clarence Hill covers the Cowboys for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. All quotations obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.