Australian Open 2015 Women's Final: Sharapova vs Williams Preview and Prediction
The 2015 Australian Open women's final will be the latest chapter in one of sport's most intriguing rivalries.
Given Serena Williams dominance over Maria Sharapova, some might dismiss this matchup as a rivalry. However, rivalries consist of two opponents constantly competing for the same goal. Outside of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal, Williams/Sharapova is tennis' biggest rivalry.
The 15-match winning streak Williams has over Sharapova just adds to the intrigue. The longer the streak continues, the more dramatic it gets. If Sharapova manages a win, does it erase the decades' long frustration? If Williams wins, does it diminish Sharapova's legacy?
It's often said that when a player maintains dominance over another, that the dominant player has taken up residence in their opponent's head. In this case, Williams has constructed a palatial estate in Sharapova's psyche.
The 16-2 head-to-head record and winning streak just touch the surface of Williams' strangle-hold on this rivalry. In the last 15 meetings, Williams also holds a 30-3 sets advantage over Sharapova. Yikes!
Yet each time they play, tension builds between the champions. Will this be the time Sharapova overcomes her demons and bests the brilliant Williams, one of the greatest of all time? Or will the outcome affirm what Sharapova knows—Williams is simply the superior tennis player.
Who Has the Historic Edge?
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If you guessed Serena Williams, punch the Staples button. Because that was easy. Williams' 16-2 edge is well documented. Most of the wins have been in straight sets. Some have been complete blow outs.
However, in a few more recent matches—the 2013 Sony Open, the 2013 French Open and 2014 Sony Open— Sharapova has played Williams closer.
That's good news and bad news for Sharapova. This means that even when playing her best against Williams, she continues to come up short.
During the decade-long losing streak, Sharapova's best chance to upset Williams was in Miami in 2013. Sharapova took the first set 6-4 and was up 3-2 in the second. That's when Williams came roaring back to win the last 10 games and take the match 4-6, 6-3, 6-0.
How Sharapova Has Looked so Far at the Autralian Open
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Except for a close scare in the second round against Alexandra Panova, Sharapova has cruised toward the finals.
In her semifinals match, Sharapova overpowered No. 10 Ekaterina Makarova, 6-3, 6-2. That's despite making seven double faults and 26 unforced errors.
Sharapova's average first-serve speed against Makarova was 101.3 mph. Her second serve average was just above 90 mph. Sharapova avoids the steep dip between serves that other players have. This contributes to the double faults.
She had at least four double faults in each of her matches. However, she has escaped the double-digit double fault nightmares that plagued her game in the past.
Although she's faced a number of ranked players, none brought the fire power that she will see against Williams.
How Williams Has Looked so Far at the Australian Open
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Williams has had to battle back in a few matches this tournament. She dropped the first set to Elina Svitolina in the third round and Garbine Muguruza in the fourth round.
She fell behind 1-3 against Madison Keys in the semifinal. Keys was able to save eight match points against Williams.
Williams has kept the unforced errors in check. She's managed to hit more winners than unforced errors in every match.
Her movement and footwork look solid. The biggest issue for Williams has been a bad cold she's battled. She seemed in distress during a changeover in an early round match. Prior to her match quarterfinal match, Williams suffered a coughing fit.
She told The Sydney Morning Herald, "I've been sick the past few days. It's just getting worse and worse. But hopefully it will start getting better. I heard it's a virus going around with a lot of the players. I think I caught it."
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Biggest X-Factors
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If you look at the photo above, Sharapova has a huge size advantage. The tallest woman in the Top 100 on the WTA Tour, Sharapova has at least a five-inch height advantage over Williams.
In other sports, whether basketball, football, even in men's tennis, an athlete's height advantage is often cited. For some reason, Sharapova's edge over Williams rarely gets discussed. Perhaps that's because she fails to take advantage of it, especially against Williams.
A Grand Slam final is hardly the place to break out new stuff. But since the old stuff hasn't worked, maybe Sharapova will charge the net more. Anything that disrupts Williams' rhythm is a plus for Sharapova.
Serving is always an X-factor in tennis. But with these two, it looms even larger. If Williams fires off double digit aces, it's goodnight Maria. The same is true if Sharapova misfires and hits double-digit double faults.
If the reverse happens and Williams struggles with her serve while Sharapova's serving improves, an upset could be in the works.
Sharapova Will Win If...
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Remember the 2013 French Open final? Sharapova played beautifully. She brought her A-game. Williams, however, arrived with her B-game. That's the problem for Sharapova. Her A-game is no match even for Williams' B-game.
Forget all the revenge foolishness, the disdain or dislike theories. This is simply a bad matchup for Sharapova. She hits a powerful, yet flat ball. Even when hit with precision, as Madison Keys did, Williams can feast on those balls.
Williams' B-game can beat Sharapova's A-game, in straight sets. Any drop off spells disaster for Sharapova. When Williams brings her A game and Sharapova arrives with a C-game, such as in the 2012 Olympics, it's a bloodbath.
Sharapova has to bring her A-game. This means serving well, attacking Williams' serve and reducing unforced errors. Even then, she has to hope Williams arrives with a C-plus game or worse.
Williams Will Win If...
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Williams needs to keep calm and a 19th Slam title awaits. If she can shake off jitters, play relaxed and focused tennis, nothing Sharapova produces will be of concern.
Williams has the better serve and more reliable groundstrokes. Williams moves better and has more variety in her arsenal. She is the better athlete and better tennis player. The only advantage Sharapova has is in size and sometimes in power.
This match will be determined by what happens on Williams' side of the net. She must keep firing aces and keep her first-serve percentage above 55. Getting off to a quick start will also help. Although Sharapova has a knack for coming back, that reputation was not built against Williams. If Williams can jump off to a big lead, even a confident Sharapova will find it difficult to believe.
Prediction
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Earlier in the week, Tomas Berdych ended a 17-match losing streak to Rafael Nadal. However, Williams in Melbourne, in a final, is far more formidable a task to overcome than an ailing Nadal in the quarterfinals.
Anything is possible. But what is more probable is what we've seen from these women over the past 15 matches: Williams in control.
Sharapova will fight like heck. She may even grab a lead as she did at the Sony Open in 2013.
There's always a chance for the unexpected. Don't count on it with these two. These women know each other's game probably as well as they know their own. This will be their 19th meeting and Williams is playing for her 19th Slam title. Nineteen will be Williams' lucky number.
Williams wins in straight sets.
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