2015 NCAA Tournament Hopefuls Whose Bubble May Burst Due to 1 Gut-Punch Loss

Conference play is in full swing. NCAA tournament seeding, insertion and exemption seem to change almost nightly and this becomes a fascinating time to start looking at the simultaneously hopeful and dreadful “Bubble."

It's way too early to declare "in or out" for many schools among the field of 68.

But there are certainly 10 teams out there wishing they could change one result, and perhaps their fate for March.

Maybe it was a missed chance. Or it could’ve been a night that woefully got away.

Whatever the case, these teams always have to have a slight gaze into their rear-view mirrors. They’re trying to keep from being haunted by lost time.

St. John's

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Worst Loss: Jan. 18 at DePaul, 71-67 (OT)

The Red Storm may be best remembered as the answer to the Coach K/1K result.

Losing to Duke (even in the hometown Big Apple) is not a shame, though a win would've done wonders for promotion and portfolio.

What is a real letdown, however, is the overtime disaster at .500-hovering DePaul, which rallied late in the second half and hit free throw after free throw to end a two-game losing streak.

Steve Lavin’s team has an otherwise fairly respectable list of losses, although it's a considerable string. Some ground needs to be made up after a Jan. 18 misfire in Chicago, which also was the fourth loss in a five-game stretch. Dropping one at Creighton by three points on Jan. 28 doesn't bode well, either.

Recovery Plan: Getting over new-year skid won't be easy. A strong finish with a couple of road wins could certainly look appealing in early March with success at Marquette and Villanova.

Colorado State

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Worst Loss: Jan. 7 vs. Wyoming, 60-54

How does a 19-3 team make this list? A no-name schedule (aside from a two-point win Dec. 10 at Colorado) and an awkward home loss, that's how.

Even ESPN guru Joe Lunardi had the Rams on the verge of not making the cut in his Jan. 22 bracket update, despite its lofty record. (He's since updated them to a No. 11 seed.)

Larry Eustachy’s team lost at the venerable Pit of New Mexico on Jan. 3 and followed up 4 days later with a disconcerting home loss to Highway 287 rival Wyoming.

It snapped a 10-game win streak at Moby Arena and severed the Rams’ chances at first place in the Mountain West.

Recovery Plan: Feb. 14 could mean love or heartbreak for the Rams. They're at San Diego State.

Stephen F. Austin

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Worst Loss: Nov. 18 vs. Northern Iowa, 79-77 (OT)

There are a lot of small conferences that will be fighting for one bid come March.

But what to do about Stephen F. Austin? It is stone-cold dominating the Southland (undefeated), and sports a really good record (17-3) but could have trouble overcoming a shaky start and a lousy RPI (103 according to ESPN).

The Lumberjacks lost to a really quality Northern Iowa team Nov. 18 in overtime at home, in a rare morning start dictated by ESPN's college hoops marathon. They had to rebound from a 1-3 start that included road losses to Xavier and Baylor. Battle tested early on, for sure, but how about NCAA Tournament committee approved?

As far as quality wins, there’s not one on the schedule and nothing really forthcoming in a forgettable conference.

It could be a case of having to win a league tournament title for an automatic NCAA bid. No pressure there, right? That would be a shame to catch a bad night there and not qualify.

Northern Iowa snapped SFA’s 34-game winning streak at Johnson Coliseum.

SFA could hope its reputation from last year is worth some good karma. It beat VCU before losing to UCLA in the round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament, finishing 32-3.

Recovery Plan: May not need one. They're a mid-30's team according to KenPom, and have won 17 in a row. But to play it safe, keep winning and make it to conference tourney final.

Saint Mary's

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Worst Loss: Jan. 31 vs. Peppedine, 67-62

There’s no shame in losing at Gonzaga like the Gaels did last week, sputtering midway into the second half of what turned into a 21-point defeat.

SMC’s problems now are like many previous years: The schedule strength, and letting wins slip away while having a very thin margin for error — and letting wins slip away at home, in particular.

Second place in the West Coast Conference doesn’t look quite as savory with a Dec. 6 home loss to Boise State and a home follow-up to Northern Arizona 10 days later. The NAU defeat was possibly the most remarkable ending of the college basketball season.

A drive and basket by Kris Yanku tied the score and Quinton Upshur stole the inbounds pass and converted a game-winning layup with about a second on the clock. That blink-of-an-eye lapse could hound the Gaels, who nonetheless have a healthy lead on second place (BYU and Pepperdine) in the WCC but must still overcome an unimpressive RPI that hovers 60.

What really hurts is a loss like Saturday's at home against Pepperdine. The Waves may have been tied for third place in the WCC, but that's a third vicious home loss that may just having the Gaels slotted to the NIT.

Recovery Plan: Keep a healthy second-place WCC cushion. Winning at BYU on Feb. 12 almost seems necessary now, after the Pepperdine fiasco. Revenge at home vs. Gonzaga on Feb. 21 (also nationally televised) seems unlikely right now, but obviously would help to offset some past issues.

Indiana

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Worst Loss: Nov. 24 vs. Eastern Washington, 88-86

Until last weekend’s loss at Ohio State, the Hoosiers molded themselves into quite a turnaround story. But that doesn’t mean they’re immune from having to live with their past.

The first defeat of the year came Nov. 24 at home to Eastern Washington. Yogi Ferrell’s 27 points and seven assists weren’t enough. A home court and a 14-2 start weren’t enough, either, against a Big Sky team.

Those kinds of games would be nice to have back, as Indiana’s RPI hovers in the 30’s. And February’s slate will start with facing Wisconsin (road), Michigan (home) and Maryland (road).

Recovery Plan: Plenty of time remains for Hoosiers to bolster their portfolio, yet time is obviously of the essence. At Wisconsin on Feb. 3 could tell wonders about where this team is headed.

North Carolina State

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Worst Loss: Jan. 25 vs. Notre Dame, 81-78 (OT)

The Wolfpack have gone from hover-mode to off some bubbles. Not winning at home in a great opportunity against Notre Dame on Jan. 25 could be the final push off the cliff into the NIT.

NC State had enough issues with an early-season loss at so-so Purdue, which also fell to North Florida and Gardner-Webb in West Lafayette, Ind.

But at home, the Pack blew an 18-point lead against the Irish and missed two three-pointers in the closing seconds that would’ve forced a second overtime — and perhaps also could’ve extended Mark Gottfried’s chances for a happier March.

Recovery Plan: No surprise if it comes down to ACC tourney. The Pack finish the regular season with a three-game road swing to North Carolina, Boston College and Clemson before a March 7 home game vs. Syracuse. That will tell wonders about what NC State needs to do in the conference tournament.

Alabama

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Worst Loss: Dec. 16 at Wichita State, 53-52

Before the loss at Kentucky on Saturday, the Crimson Tide’s last three games were decided by a basket, showing just how razor thin its margin is down the stretch. (It won one of the three.)

A little breathing room could’ve been had Dec. 16. A win at Wichita State sure would’ve looked nice in the portfolio, especially after starting SEC play with a three-game losing streak.

Wichita State had won 22 consecutive home games when Alabama appeared to have the, uh, shocker pulled off — starting with an 11-point lead with six minutes left. The Tide was then outscored, 13-1, and committed four turnovers the rest of the way during a 53-52 outcome.

Recovery plan: Better get used to the "on the bubble" distraction from local media or turned-on televisions. Watch for a March 7 game at Texas A&M to steer the conversation more dramatically.

Kansas State

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Worst Loss: Dec. 28 vs. Texas Southern, 58-56

Can it really be bad to lose to a conference front-runner? It is if you’re Kansas State, and the schedule includes a home loss to Texas Southern — which is 9-11 but remains in the hunt in the SWAC.

Chris Thomas’ putback tied it at 56 with 0.9 seconds left. Kansas State threw away the inbounds pass and Texas Southern hit a jumper as time expired.

Go figure, the visiting Tigers could be a curse word for a couple of bubble-sitting teams. That was their second win over 2014 NCAA tournament teams in eight days after ousting then-No. 25 Michigan State on the road, 71-64, on Dec. 20.

Recovery Plan: Playing in a dominant conference has its advantages, if the Wildcats can consistently take care of business. Of course, the flip side is that a late-season three-game swing could spell doom. K-State needs to take care of Kansas again this season at Bramlage Coliseum (Feb. 23) then will play host to Iowa State before heading to Texas. K-State could very likely regret those early-season defeats.

Davidson

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Worst Loss: Jan. 17 at Richmond, 89-63

Considering two games against Richmond, you’ve got to be wondering about Stephen Curry’s old school.

Davidson held a commanding all-time series lead against Richmond (31-12) when visiting for a rematch Jan. 17. The Wildcats fell, 89-63 after wining the first Atlantic 10 meeting at home by 14 two weeks earlier.

Davidson has also fallen to North Carolina, Virginia and VCU (to produce an ESPN RPI rank of about 40) — but this one was really odd. Underwhelming Richmond led by 15 at the half and scored 20 of the opening 26 points out of the break, despite playing less than 48 hours after a double-overtime road loss.

Recovery Plan: Look out for a two-game swing with George Washington (Feb. 18, 28) as the make-or-break point for the Fightin' Currys.

Texas A&M

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Worst Loss: Jan. 10 vs. Kentucky, 70-64 (2OT)

Perhaps no bubble-licious team will be more haunted come Selection Sunday than the Aggies, who have had their share of big, missed chances.

They lost to Dayton during an early-season tournament in Puerto Rico. They fell to another hopeful at-large team, Kansas State, in Kansas City, Mo.

And there was the mega-sized missed opportunity at home against Kentucky on Jan. 10. Give the Aggies a ton of credit for forcing double-OT — even making it through the first one despite not scoring a basket.

But it would’ve helped put them ahead of the bubble curve, which right now appears to feature SEC contemporaries Tennessee and Ole Miss in a league race that is owned by UK but more skilled in the second tier than many experts figured at the start of the season.

Recovery Plan: There's no return trip to Kentucky, which could theoretically hurt the Aggies on strength of schedule points. Best bet is to take care of home court (five remaining SEC games) and find a groove for conference tournament.