
2015 NFL Free Agents: Who Has the Most Upside on the Market?
One of the most bandied-about terms in all of sports is "upside," referring to a player's eventual ceiling. You hear it all the time: Players are constantly analyzed in terms of their upside, especially in the NFL's business season—namely free agency and the draft.
But since free agency is the crux of this column, that's where we'll stick. All of the players on this list are here because of their upside, and a fact that runs simpatico with that train of thought is that all are ascending and have the opportunity to evolve into even better players than they already are.
While the term is sometimes saved for lesser-known players, that will not be the overriding theme of this particular piece. Here, "upside" will correlate with the player's overall potential—and that means superstars (looking at you, Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas) qualify, in addition to Rip Van Winkle-level sleepers (hi, Antone Smith).
All of the players listed here have tremendous upside and will make fans, team executives and members of the media salivate as 2015 free agency draws closer.
Jake Locker, Quarterback
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Soon-to-be free-agent quarterback Jake Locker possesses the type of physical tools (6'3", 223 lbs) that make NFL coaches and executives lick their chops.
His athleticism is off the charts, and he has a Howitzer attached to his right arm. He's capable of making all the throws and of looking effortless in doing so. And at age 26, there's clearly still time for him to refine his overall game.
With all of this said, an obvious follow-up question is this: In a quarterback-starved league, why isn't Locker's impending free agency receiving more publicity?
Unfortunately for Locker, the answer lies in the fact that he's the human manifestation of an especially fragile China doll, seemingly hurt at a moment's notice by any number of myriad injuries.
Over the past three years in which he's served as Tennessee's nominal "starter," Locker has missed 23 games with various ailments, and his record is only 9-14. He also didn't shine in 2014, tossing only five touchdown passes against seven interceptions in five starts (1-4 record).
Last April, the writing on the wall for Locker's career in the Music City became quite visible when the club declined to pick up his fifth-year option. He needed a solid campaign to ensure another season in Nashville, but that obviously didn't happen, and it's extremely unlikely he'll be back. That means he'll be testing the market.
While Locker's injury history should (and will) concern teams, the fact of the matter is that he's extraordinarily talented, and it really wouldn't be too much of a surprise if he turned his career around. If he can finally stay healthy, he has a chance to make a difference at the NFL level.
Antone Smith, Running Back
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We haven't been able to confirm the scuttlebutt, but rumor has it that after the campaign Atlanta Falcons running back Antone Smith just authored, there will be a picture of him next to the expression "shot out of a cannon" in Webster's Dictionary.
Smith, 29, was a one-man wrecking crew for the Falcons last year, scoring five touchdowns on only 36 touches—all of 38 yards or greater—and averaging 51 yards per scoring play (two touchdown runs and three receptions). Such was his brilliance that it reached the point where he was expected to find paydirt nearly every time he touched the ball.
Back in October, Falcons owner Arthur Blank expressed a desire to keep Smith in Atlanta.
"He really epitomizes everything you want in a team player," Blank told Vaughn McClure of ESPN.com. "It’s not about self; it’s always about team. It’s always about doing whatever I can do to contribute. And he lives that way. He really, really does. I’m thrilled he’s a Falcon and I’m happy for the season he’s having."
Unfortunately for Smith, he broke his leg and missed the final six games of the season, somewhat muting the enthusiasm surrounding his breakout. But teams will surely remember his big-play ability and undeniable upside when the market opens in March.
Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas, Wide Receivers
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Dallas Cowboys receiver Dez Bryant and Denver Broncos receiver Demaryius Thomas are both so damn good that they're worth mentioning in the same slide.
Simply put, both are elite pass-catchers who are capable of single-handedly improving an NFL offense. If they were to join forces Voltron style, the NFL's cornerbacks would probably all file their retirement papers on the same day.
Their 2014 statistics were simply silly: Thomas hauled in 111 receptions for 1,619 yards and 11 receiving scores, while Bryant caught 88 passes for 1,320 yards and 16 touchdown receptions. Their physical tools are unrivaled, with both serving as intimidating presences at a position known more for finesse than physicality.
Both men are young (Thomas is 27; Bryant is 26), so the arrow is clearly pointing upward on both careers—a scary proposition for defensive coordinators around the NFL.
The upside for each is clear: to be the best receiver in the league.
Randall Cobb, Wide Receiver
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Green Bay Packers wide receiver Randall Cobb is ridiculously good. There's just no other way to say it.
The four-year veteran—who is only 24 years old—hauled in 91 receptions for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2014. He finished the year ranked as Pro Football Focus' ninth-best wide receiver.
Cobb was a trusted target for Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and it's evident that his star is on the rise. Given his obvious physical attributes and age, he's going to be a stud for a long time, and it's difficult to imagine him not steadily ascending if he remains in a Packers uniform, continuing to catch passes from Rodgers.
But his future in Green Bay appears nebulous, with the team having committed big-time money to Cobb's batterymate, Jordy Nelson. Back in December, Bob McGinn of the Journal Sentinel reported that Cobb was the team's top priority in free agency, but one would have to assume that another team will be falling all over itself to open up the ol' checkbook and lavish Cobb with an exorbitant amount of greenbacks.
Whether he remains a Packer or not, Cobb's career trajectory is pointed squarely up, and he has the potential to be one of the league's best receivers for years to come.
Jordan Cameron, Tight End
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It's tough to imagine a player having a more disappointing season than Cleveland Browns tight end Jordan Cameron did in 2014.
Cameron—who was coming off a stellar 2013 campaign (80 catches for 917 yards and seven touchdowns)—suffered a concussion that lingered for much of the season, limiting him to only 10 games and 24 receptions, drawing the ire of both Browns fans and petulant fantasy football players nationwide.
Despite the poor season, the prospect of adding Cameron should still be an exciting one for NFL teams and fans. He's only 26, and he has excellent size (6'5", 249 lbs) and hands. Plus, he has pretty darn good speed for a man of his stature, which he displayed on an 81-yard touchdown jaunt in Week 16 against the Panthers.
If Cameron can stay healthy, he has the potential to be a difference-maker. And when you consider he's managed to accomplish what he has in his career without a real franchise quarterback, it's easy to imagine what he could do with an elite signal-caller tossing him the pigskin.
Rodney Hudson, Center
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Kansas City Chiefs center Rodney Hudson continued his ascension into the top tier of NFL centers in 2014, playing magnificent football en route to earning himself a surefire payday in free agency.
Hudson, who finished the year ranked as Pro Football Focus' third-best center, is a proficient pass-blocker who made life easier for quarterback Alex Smith. He's only 25 years old and has played in all 32 games over the past two seasons (starting 31 of them).
While he's not an especially well-known name at this juncture, expect that to change as free agency approaches. Per Terez A. Paylor of The Kansas City Star, former NFL agent and salary-cap expert Joel Corry believes Hudson will "command a deal worth at least $5 million per season on the open market."
Ndamukong Suh, Defensive Tackle
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As discussed earlier in both the introduction and the slide addressing Bryant and Thomas, a player doesn't necessarily have to be a sleeper in order to possess a massive amount of upside. Enter Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh, the second overall pick in the 2010 draft and a three-time first-team All-Pro.
Suh, 28, is a truly frightening man and an absolute beast on the gridiron. Last season, he totaled a ridiculous 8.5 sacks from the defensive-tackle position and finished the year ranked as Pro Football Focus' third-best defensive tackle.
With Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press reporting that Suh's cap number would check in at a staggering $26.9 million if the Lions slapped him with the franchise tag, the smart money is on Suh hitting the open market. If and when that happens, expect the big guy to get paid in a major way.
While he's now an established NFL veteran, Suh's upside—to be the league's most dominant defensive tackle—remains as vast as the Grand Canyon.
And in the end, it may turn out to be just as spectacular to gaze upon.
Justin Houston, Linebacker
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Kansas City Chiefs outside linebacker Justin Houston is yet another established NFL star who possesses oodles and oodles of upside. We're talking upside filled to the brim, and the type of upside that could alter the direction of a franchise.
Precisely, Houston is a game-changing player, a true pass-rushing demon capable of destroying an opposing offense. In 2014, he led the NFL with an outrageous 22 sacks and finished the year ranked as Pro Football Focus' top-rated 3-4 outside linebacker.
Players with Houston's talent—the kind who accumulate 48.5 sacks over four NFL seasons—don't hit the market very often, so there's little doubt he'll break the bank in emphatic fashion. While Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk reported back in December that the Chiefs would likely hit Houston with the franchise tag and Houston would likely sign it, it remains to be seen if that will actually come to pass.
But regardless of whether Houston stays in Kansas City or traverses elsewhere, his upside is undeniable. At age 26 and coming off his best season, he could be the weapon that a franchise needs to take the next step.
Kareem Jackson, Cornerback
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After a spectacular 2014 campaign that received little-to-no fanfare, it's fair to say that Houston Texans cornerback Kareem Jackson is one of the most underrated and underappreciated players in the entire National Football League.
Jackson, 26, finished the year ranked as Pro Football Focus' 11th-best cornerback, receiving positive grades for both his coverage ability (he intercepted three passes in 2014) and run defense.
A first-round selection in the 2010 draft, Jackson (5'10", 188 lbs) is an ascending player coming off his best season. In speaking to Daniel Gotera of KHOU 11 in Houston, he expressed a desire to remain a Texan.
"I would definitely love to continue to be a Houston Texan," Jackson told Gotera. "Great fanbase here, I enjoy playing in NRG Stadium. With the new coaching staff and coach O'Brien, I definitely love what they're doing and bringing to the table.
Jackson will be one of the most coveted cornerbacks on the market, and given his age and talent, his upside is significant.
Nick Kostos is a national NFL columnist for Bleacher Report and a host on Bleacher Report Radio on SiriusXM. You can follow him on Twitter here.
Honorable Mentions
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Torrey Smith, WR
Julius Thomas, TE
C.J. Spiller, RB
Stevan Ridley, RB
Mark Ingram, RB
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE
There were a number of players who nearly made the cut for this list but ultimately had to be left off in favor of superior options.
Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith was chief among them. Smith caught 11 touchdown passes in 2014 and has proved to be a big-game player. But in the end, we couldn't justify including him over Dallas' Dez Bryant, Denver's Demaryius Thomas or Green Bay's Randall Cobb.
A handful of running backs fell short as well, including New Orleans' Mark Ingram, Buffalo's C.J. Spiller and New England's Stevan Ridley. In terms of pure upside, it's hard to match that of Atlanta's Antone Smith.
Broncos tight end Julius Thomas has been the superior player to Cleveland's Jordan Cameron, but Cameron possesses more theoretical upside. Thomas has done his damage in a Peyton Manning-led offense, while Cameron has played well despite a revolving door at quarterback for the Browns.
Giants defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul is a fine player and the top end set to hit the market, but didn't merit inclusion over either Detroit defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh or Kansas City outside linebacker Justin Houston.
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