Breaking Down Roger Federer's Loss to Andreas Seppi at the 2015 Australian Open
Did anyone see this coming?
After beating Grigor Dimitrov and Milos Raonic for a season-opening title in Brisbane, Roger Federer appeared ready to make a run at his fifth Australian Open title and a march on the No. 1 ranking. Instead, he's already leaving Melbourne after a shocking defeat to Andreas Seppi in the third round.
The Federer who made relatively straightforward work of Yen-Hsun Lu and Simon Bolelli in the first two rounds was nowhere to be seen during the 4-6, 6-7 (5), 6-4, 6-7 (5) loss to Seppi. He seemed uncomfortable and unsure of himself, offering little resistance to the Italian's blitzkrieg of sharp tennis.
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How unexpected was the result? Federer had made at least the semifinals in his last 11 Australian Open appearances. The last time he exited this early Down Under, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube were years away from even being created.
"Federer streak of 13 straight yrs 4R-better (11 SF) @AustralianOpen ends & last time lost in 3R AO in '01 (l. to Clement).
— Greg Sharko (@SharkoTennis) January 23, 2015"
From the time the first ball was struck, Federer just seemed off. He lacked his usual fire, only intermittently kindling that emotion for an "Allez!" or a "Come on!" Try as he might, he couldn't spark his game to reach the finish line.
It's tough to know what impact the finger injury suffered during his win over Bolleli played, but it likely had a role. Federer complained of pain during and after that match, and he played like a man compromised against Seppi.
Whether or not the injury carried over, Federer looked like a guy hanging on for dear life.
His shots didn't have their usual zip or depth. Federer couldn't dictate with his forehand and left countless balls short, which Seppi gladly pounced on. Instead of controlling points through pace, Federer was too often pushed back or left scrambling to keep up. The stats say it all: Federer hit 17 winners compared to 28 unforced errors off the forehand wing.
There were moments of brilliance, but they were overshadowed by a plague of sloppy hitting. He couldn't find much hope with his backhand either. Federer didn't seem too confident with the shot, resorting to slice after slice instead of hitting over backhands.
As Seppi bludgeoned Federer from the baseline, Sports Illustrated's Jon Wertheim became increasingly concerned.
"This reminding anyone else of 2013? Shankasaurus sightings. Emboldened opponents feasting on bh. Credit RF for hanging in, but this is ugly
— Jon Wertheim (@jon_wertheim) January 23, 2015"
Perhaps the most telling sign he was in trouble came on his own second serve. For the match, Federer's average second serve traveled at 96 MPH—a five MPH decrease from his opening-round win over Lu.
Federer only put 59 percent of his first serves into play, and the Swiss double-faulted a startling nine times for the match. Without his trusty serve, he couldn't gain tactical advantage.
He came to net a whopping 50 times, but he was only successful on 29 of those points. No matter what he tried, Federer couldn't sustain momentum.
In the first set, Seppi won 32 of the 59 points they played. The Italian again won that battle 47-45 in the second set. The tide started to turn in the third stanza when Federer won 30 of 52 points, but he couldn't win the important points during the fourth-set tiebreak.
While Federer started to play incrementally better over the course of the match, it wasn't enough to finish the comeback. Ironically, he won more points than Seppi (145-144) with the help of that third set. Too little, too late.
Federer, as The New York Times' Ben Rothenberg quoted him as expressing after the match, had a nightmare day at the office.
"I definitely wanted to go into the match, play aggressive, play the right way, play on my terms. But it was just hard to do. For some reason, I struggled. Like I explained, it had things to do with Andreas’s game, and with my game as well. You put those things together, all of a sudden you’re playing a match you don’t want to play.
"
So why did Federer lose? Was it because of injury, age, poor play or a brilliant performance from Seppi? It was all those reasons.
Seppi played a very clean match and went for his shots. His racket dripped winners while Federer was left to just shake his head along the baseline. The Swiss couldn't match that consistency and looked like the prey instead of the predator.
Sure, the injury to his right pinky may have limited Federer before or during the match, but he's more prone to having these types of off days as he ages. Father Time is an opponent not even Federer can conquer.
Going forward, Federer will have to put this stinging loss behind him and focus on regaining his form before the French Open and Wimbledon. He'll finally have time to rest his body after the Davis Cup and exhibitions cut into his offseason after the 2014 campaign.
He's set to appear next in Dubai at the end of February, and he'll need a strong result there to gain some confidence before Indian Wells and Miami.
Federer's exit from Melbourne opens the door for players like Andy Murray, Grigor Dimitrov or even Nick Kyrgios to make it out of that quarter of the draw. For Federer, it just opens more questions about his future after another disappointing loss at a Grand Slam.
All statistics are courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.
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