NFL Mock Draft 2015: 1st-Round Predictions and Analysis

In a perfect world, all of my draft projections would be spot-on. Alas, this world isn't perfect and, you know, draft projections in January aren't generally terribly accurate come the NFL draft.

Ah, but a writer can dream. And so can NFL teams. So below, I'll make predictions for the first round and provide analysis with each pick, along with providing a (tongue-in-cheek) assessment of what certain teams could draft in a perfect world. 

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon Ducks

Maybe the Bucs will think Jameis Winston is the better fit. Maybe they'll choose to select a defensive player. Maybe they'll trade the pick. Maybe they'll have a hard time deciding and forget to make their first pick in the allotted time, allowing the Tennessee Titans to pick before them.

OK, that last part probably won't happen.

But I still think they'll make Marcus Mariota the top overall pick. His mobility, his work ethic and his humility make him the right combination of exciting and reliable, and while he'll likely never be a traditional quarterback, he'll thrive in a system built to highlight his strengths. 

This is the pick.

2. Tennessee Titans: Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska

In a perfect world, the Titans could draft an offense with Steve McNair and Eddie George. In this world, however, they'll have to make a big decision—draft Jameis Winston or a top-notch defender like Randy Gregory?

I think they'll go with Gregory, both because they lack a dynamic edge player of his ilk and because Zach Mettenberger is still on the roster and deserves the chance to prove he can be the man. Like Tampa Bay, the Titans may also entertain the notion of trading this pick, but ultimately I think they'll select Gregory.

3. Jacksonville Jaguars: Shane Ray, DE, Missouri 

Jacksonville will have a ton of options here and will be a popular trade target if Winston is still on the board, but I think they'll continue to upgrade the defense and add an excellent pass-rusher like Ray. Jacksonville's defensive line will be a major strength in 2015. 

4. Oakland Raiders: Leonard Williams, DT, USC 

In a perfect world, the Oakland Raiders would draft the late 1970s and early 1980s and relive their glory years all over again. There have been some lean times since, namely in the past decade, seeing as they haven't reached the postseason since they lost in Super Bowl XXXVII.

Ah, but the goal is to get back to the good ol' days, and the hope is that in players like Derek Carr and Khalil Mack, they're on their way. They'll have a choice here, as Alabama wide receiver Amari Cooper is a compelling talent who would immediately improve the offense. But Leonard Williams is the top player on my board at this point and would really improve the team in the trenches, where they are most vulnerable.

That makes Williams the pick. 

5. Washington: Vic Beasley, DE, Clemson

In a perfect world, Washington would draft a new owner, a team name that wasn't racist and all of the picks they lost in the Robert Griffin III trade.

None of that is happening, however. At least not yet.

What they can draft here is an edge-rusher to replace Brian Orakpo, who may not be back with the team next season.  

6. New York Jets: Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State

This really would be the pick in a perfect world. This pick is the equivalent of Spike Lee and Reggie Miller getting stuck on an elevator together back in Miller's playing days. 

Winston is the draft's most divisive, controversial player, and the New York media is notoriously intense. While Winston could end up being this draft's best player, it's also possible he'll allow off-field distractions to derail him, allowing the New York media to pounce. 

It's a fascinating marriage. And one I won't be terribly surprised to see happen. The Jets need a quarterback, and Winston will probably drop a bit. Bring on the drama.

7. Chicago Bears: Landon Collins, S, Alabama 

The Bears ranked 30th in pass defense this past season, so it isn't a stretch to suggest they need to upgrade the secondary. New head coach John Fox shouldn't hesitate to snag the draft's best safety by a wide margin, Landon Collins, filling a huge need in the process. 

8. Atlanta Falcons: Dante Fowler, DE, Florida

The Falcons finished tied for 30th in the NFL with just 22 sacks this past season. At No. 8, snagging the top pass-rusher on the board should be their priority. Dante Fowler fits the bill. 

9. New York Giants: Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington

Shaq Thompson is such a wonderfully versatile and diverse player; an NFL team will find the perfect role for him. Be it at linebacker, safety or even running back—or perhaps all three—Thompson will make an NFL team better. The Giants would be wise to ensure they are that team. 

10. St. Louis Rams: Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama  

In a perfect world, the Rams would draft a one-way ticket to Los Angeles so they could put the St. Louis fans out of their misery as they wait for owner Stan Kroenke to try to ship the team back out West. I feel your pain, St. Louis. 

But this world is far from perfect, so the St. Louis fans will have to settle with getting to watch Amari Cooper, if only for a year, brighten up their passing game. I could see Cooper going in the top five, so getting him here would be a huge steal. 

Not as big of a theft as what Kroenke is likely plotting with St. Louis' team, mind you, but still a pretty big steal.

11. Minnesota Vikings: Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa

Many fans in Minnesota would tell you that former first-rounder Matt Kalil has been a disappointment in his first three seasons. Even Kalil admitted after the team's final game that it took him awhile to put things together—in his third season, mind you—this year, per Andrew Krammer of 1500 ESPN:

"

I think it took me about until five weeks ago to figure out what I have to do and get balanced and everything. I'm getting better. I know what I'm capable of doing. I've done it before. 

I say it now, but I think I got things figured out. What I really have to do. I talk to my brother [Panthers center Ryan Kalil], too, ask him what you do in the offseason.

"

Kalil's improvement later in the season may mean the team isn't keen on drafting a left tackle. But Brandon Scherff might be better off on the right side or at guard anyway, and the fact that he would provide the team with some insurance on the left doesn't hurt. This seems like a smart selection for the Vikings.

12. Cleveland Browns: DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville 

In a perfect world, the Browns would draft the Baltimore Ravens organization. You know, the organization that was stolen from Cleveland and has won two Super Bowls since and reached the playoffs in 10 of the last 15 years. 

In a slightly less perfect but still ideal world, the team will build an offense around Johnny Manziel's unique skill set and get him some more weapons in the passing game. DeVante Parker is a great pairing for Josh Gordon on the outside. 

Even if he's not quite as appealing as two Super Bowl rings.

13. New Orleans Saints: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State

In a down year for the NFC South, it was hugely disappointing that the Saints didn't manage to reach the postseason. Chalk it up to a shoddy defense and a porous secondary. Cornerback Trae Waynes will help patch up that weak unit.

14. Miami Dolphins: Danny Shelton, DT, Washington 

The Dolphins need to address their defensive line, namely the interior of the line, and Danny Shelton is the type of player that can both clog up running lanes and is an excellent pass-rusher from his tackle position. Getting pressure up the middle is incredibly difficult for NFL quarterbacks to deal with, and Shelton is quite capable of doing just that.

15. San Francisco 49ers: Kevin White, WR, West Virginia  

In a perfect world, the 49ers would draft the ability to live up to their talent. Maybe with this year's changes to the coaching staff, they'll do just that.

One thing that would help is adding another compelling receiver to the passing game. Kevin White is a great value at No. 15 and would bring some of the flash and sizzle the Niners don't have out wide.

16. Houston Texans: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M 

It doesn't really matter who the starting quarterback is next season if the offensive line can't protect him. Cedric Ogbuehi would certainly offer an upgrade for the team at tackle.

17. San Diego Chargers: La'el Collins, OT, LSU 

It's a mini-run of offensive tackles! Philip Rivers desperately needs an upgrade at offensive line to protect him. This pick is about extending Rivers' career a bit and keeping him off his back next year.

18. Kansas City Chiefs: Devin Funchess, WR, Michigan

Jamie Sabau/Getty Images

When you go through a season without a single wide receiver catching a touchdown pass, it's a pretty good indication you need to select a wideout.  

19. Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo Bills): Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State 

In a perfect world, the Browns...Oh wait, I already did one for them. Never mind.

In this world, the Browns are going to be pretty pumped to see a talented defensive tackle like Eddie Goldman on the board when they select at No. 19. This would be a heck of start to the draft for Cleveland.

20. Philadelphia Eagles: Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest

In a perfect world, the Eagles would select Mariota without having to give up their next five first-round picks. But, well, I think we all know that isn't happening.

Instead, the team will have to settle for upgrading the secondary, easily the team's biggest weakness this past year and the main culprit in the team's inability to repeat as NFC East champions. Kevin Johnson fits the big, long mold Chip Kelly seems to like in his corners, so he seems like a nice fit for the team.

21. Cincinnati Bengals: Marcus Peters, CB, Washington

Marcus Peters has major character concerns—he was booted from the Washington team, for heaven's sake—but he's arguably a top-10 talent. If the Bengals can straighten him out, this could be the steal of the draft.

22. Pittsburgh Steelers: Gerod Holliman, S, Louisville 

John Raoux/Associated Press

In a perfect world, the Steelers would draft a defense worthy of their long history of excellent defenses, dating back to the "Steel Curtain". This year, they weren't even a curtain. They were more like those crappy plastic blinds that always seem to break or end up on the ground.

Gerod Holliman should help in that regard, upgrading an aging, unproductive secondary. The Steel Curtain isn't rebuilt in a draft, but this would be a nice start.

23. Detroit Lions: Malcom Brown, DT, Texas 

In a perfect world, Ndamukong Suh would re-sign with the Lions and would stop being so darn dirty. He really needs to stop diminishing his achievements, because he truly is one of the biggest difference-makers in the NFL.

But it's possible he will sign elsewhere, a possibility the Lions need to be prepared to address. Luckily for them, Malcom Brown could be sitting for them at No. 23 to make the potential loss of Suh easier to swallow.

24. Arizona Cardinals: Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky

The Cardinals would love if Bud Dupree was here for them, because I have a feeling the outside linebacker is going to rise up the board further than this when all is said and done. That being said, he would be a great fit for the Cardinals in their already stout defense.

25. Carolina Panthers: Sammie Coates, WR, Auburn

This is the perfect fit. Sammie Coates is the sort of deep-play threat that would perfectly complement Kelvin Benjamin and Greg Olsen. 

26. Baltimore Ravens: Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia 

This is more of a luxury pick than a pure need, but Todd Gurley would give the team the sort of between-the-tackles grinder to complement the scatback abilities of Justin Forsett. They would be a devastating pair for opposing defenses to deal with.

27. Dallas Cowboys: P.J. Williams, CB, Florida State

Morris Claiborne is fast approaching bust status, so the Cowboys really should address the corner position. P.J. Williams would certainly offer them some options in that regard.

28. Denver Broncos: Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami

In a perfect world, the Broncos would draft the fountain of youth for Peyton Manning. Alas, his aging can't be helped. 

But should he return, he can be better protected. Drafting Ereck Flowers would help in that regard.

29. Indianapolis Colts: Benardrick McKinney, MLB, Mississippi State  

After being run out of the playoffs, quite literally, by the New England Deflaters—er, Patriots—the Colts really need to upgrade their run defense. Benardrick McKinney is the man for the job.

30. Green Bay Packers: Denzel Perryman, MLB, Miami 

Like the Colts, the Packers could use an interior linebacker to improve their run defense. Denzel Perryman will have the chance to make an instant impact. 

31. New England Patriots: Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State

In a perfect world, the Patriots would draft a rule change that allowed for deflated footballs. Seriously, wouldn't it be great if we could all talk about something else?

Regardless of how inflated or deflated the footballs are, the Pats could use another dynamic wideout catching them. Jaelen Strong is a solid pick for the team here.

32. Seattle Seahawks: Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford

In a perfect world, the Seahawks would draft a stunt double for Marshawn Lynch. And by stunt double, I just mean someone who looks like him who would actually participate in a postgame interview.

On a team with a chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions, it's hard to find major weaknesses. But upgrading at offensive line and adding some young blood into the mix makes plenty of sense.