UFC 183 Preliminary Card Predictions
The UFC continues its string of consecutive shows this weekend with UFC 183. Live on pay-per-view in Las Vegas, the card features a number of top fighters in their divisions, as well as some interesting prospects.
Anderson Silva and Nick Diaz meet in what can be considered a superfight. Silva returns after a gruesome leg injury that could have ended his career against a popular, trash-talking boxer in Diaz. It should be entertaining.
Before that, we have the preliminary card. My record at UFC on Fox was .500, which put a damper on a strong start to the year. We look to get back to our winning ways here in the seven fights on the undercard.
Without further ado, here are the preliminary card predictions for UFC 183 on Saturday.
2015 Riley's Record: 14-8
Last Event: UFC on Fox 14 (4-4)
Thiago Santos vs. Andy Enz
1 of 7
We kick off the card on Fight Pass in the middleweight division, as Brazilian brawler Thiago Santos looks to hand hard-as-nails American Andy Enz his walking papers.
Enz is a hard-nosed Alaskan known as "Tank Mode," which is suitable because he is highly durable and always looking to take the fight to his opponent. He is a submission specialist, though opponents have lured him into brawls in the past, which have been exciting to his detriment.
We got our first introduction to Enz on The Ultimate Fighter, where he was the only opponent during taping not to get knocked out by Uriah Hall. He even had his arm broken by a kick and still continued to fight to the decision.
He is 0-2 in the UFC, so he will need a victory desperately here. Clint Hester beat him up in his debut before Enz dropped a contentious split decision to Marcelo Guimaraes in his follow-up outing.
As for Santos, the Brazilian has been a pleasant surprise for the UFC after being an outcast from TUF Brazil. Marreta is a striker with thunderous kicks and heavy knockout power; he is a threat to end any fight with one shot.
He opened up his UFC career on a negative note, quickly getting strangled out by Cezar Ferreira. Since then, he has looked good, as he finished Ronny Markes with a devastating body kick and fought a close bout with Hall in a respectable losing effort.
Despite his losses, I like Enz's durability and submission game in this fight—maybe not as much as I like what Santos brings, but this should be a good fight regardless.
Prediction: Santos def. Enz via decision
Richardson Moreira vs. Ildemar Alcantara
2 of 7
Next up we have the middleweights, as fellow Brazilians Ildemar Alcantara and Richardson Moreira square off.
Alcantara moves back to middleweight after a stint at welterweight, where he beat Leandro Silva and Albert Tumenov but lost to Igor Araujo and Kenny Robertson. Those fights were preceded by a light heavyweight bout on short notice, in which he tapped out Wagner Prado and put his name on the map.
The brother of UFC bantamweight Iuri Alcantara, Ildemar is well-rounded. However, in this fight, striking with Moreira seems to be the key to victory, which he can mix in with his clinch game.
As for Moreira, the TUF Brazil 3 vet competed on the show at heavyweight but was a light heavyweight prior to that fight. He now takes his solid all-around game to the middleweight division, where he may hold a good power advantage over opponents.
His submissions have carried him in most of these fights, and if he noticed anything about Alcantara's bout with Araujo, it's that being on top of Alcantara is preferable. He doesn't want another situation like his UFC debut, where Marcos Rogerio mopped the floor with him in 20 seconds.
Moreira gets a second chance, probably because the UFC is in need of 185-pound bodies. However, he may see his stint come to an end, as I believe that Alcantara is the better fighter.
Prediction: Alcantara def. Moreira via decision
Diego Brandao vs. Jimy Hettes
3 of 7
Capping off the Fight Pass prelims are the featherweights, as TUF 14 winner Diego Brandao looks to get back into the win column against judoka Jimy Hettes.
Hettes is a grappler, and there is no secret about that. His game plan is to close the distance, put you on your back, slam your head with ground-and-pound and find a way to finish you. That's been his blueprint thus far.
He has used that method in his UFC career to pretty good success. Despite setbacks to Marcus Brimage and contender Dennis Bermudez, Hettes dominated Nam Phan while earning submission victories over Alex Caceres and Robert Whiteford.
As for Brandao, the Brazilian has failed to capitalize on being the winner of TUF, as he has been inconsistent in his UFC career thus far. The Greg Jackson disciple is a power puncher with jiu-jitsu who aims to knock out folks with every punch.
Since submitting Bermudez to win the TUF title in the finale, Brandao has gone just 3-3. He was able to knock off Joey Gambino, Pablo Garza and Daniel Pienda (who are not in the UFC anymore) but was decisioned by Darren Elkins and brutally knocked out by both Dustin Poirier and Conor McGregor.
The UFC is setting Brandao up for success here, so this is his fight to lose. Hettes is not especially strong on the feet, which is where Brandao will expose him, as the American will be unable to ground the Brazilian.
Prediction: Brandao def. Hettes via TKO
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Rafael Natal vs. Tom Watson
4 of 7
We move on to the Fox Sports 1 portion of the prelims in the middleweight division, as British muay thai stylist Tom Watson looks to make it two in a row against Brazilian veteran Rafael Natal.
Watson, an English striker, is a colorful character who flies under the radar but is a skilled on-the-feet specialist. Nearly half of his victories have come by way of stoppage from strikes. He has been running with Greg Jackson's crew to tighten up his wrestling and ground, something that has bitten him in the butt in the past.
His UFC career has been up and down. Though he owns an awesome knockout win over Stanislav Nedkov and a decision over Sam Alvey, the tough-as-nail Brit has been outpointed by Brad Tavares, Thales Leites and Nick Catone. Tavares and Leites are Top 15 middleweights.
As for Natal, the Brazilian has been in the UFC since 2010, displaying a power punching game that usually sets up his ground game. The mat is where he is most comfortable, even though he has improved his stand-up in recent bouts.
He has thrived against lower talent while falling to middle-to-upper talent. This can be seen in his last four fights, where he owns a controversial decision over Chris Camozzi and a win over Tor Troeng; he was brutally knocked out by Tim Kennedy and decisioned by Ed Herman.
Natal is going to look to take down Watson early and often, but the Brit's takedown defense will hold up. From there, he will use kicks and crisper striking to outpoint the Brazilian.
Prediction: Watson def. Natal via decision
Ian McCall vs. John Lineker
5 of 7
Moving on, we head to a fight that should have been on the main card due to its importance, as top flyweight contenders John Lineker and Ian McCall settle their beef inside the cage.
McCall is a well-rounded 125er who at one time was considered the best flyweight in the world. The wrestler, who also has heavy hands and leg kicks, likes to stick and move, and he is looking to get a title shot with an impressive showing against Lineker.
Since opening his UFC career at 0-2-1, McCall has turned things around with decision victories over Iliarde Santos and Brad Pickett. The Pickett fight was especially impressive, as he thoroughly outstruck the boxer and looked improved on the feet.
Lineker's weight has always been a concern, as he has missed it a handful of times. His cardio is also in question, but there is no denying that this Brazilian may be the most heavy-handed 125-pounder in the world.
The knockout artist is 5-2 in the UFC but has yet to get a title shot due to his inability to consistently make weight. His five wins have come over good opponents as well, including Alptekin Ozkilic, Yasuhiro Urushitani and Jose Maria Tome.
Lineker is always in a fight due to his ability to end things with one strike. However, McCall is durable, quicker and more well-rounded. He should be able to set a pace that Lineker can't keep up with.
Prediction: McCall def. Lineker via decision
Ed Herman vs. Derek Brunson
6 of 7
Next up we have the middleweights, as Derek Brunson and Ed Herman both search for their second straight win. The bout was initially set for UFC on Fox 13, but Brunson fell ill after the weigh-ins.
Brunson is a wrestler with great quickness, strength and athleticism. He is proficient in earning the takedown, which he uses to execute ground-and-pound and eventually a submission.
His UFC career thus far has seen its ups and downs. He has defeated Chris Leben, Brian Houston and Lorenz Larkin while falling to Yoel Romero in brutal fashion after controlling most of the fight.
As for Herman, the longtime UFC vet has proved to be a well-rounded, tough-as-nails competitor. He has good boxing and jiu-jitsu skills, which make him dangerous against anybody.
He has traded wins and losses in his last four bouts. He has earned decisions over Rafael Natal and Trevor Smith while falling hard against Thales Leites and Ronaldo Souza.
If Herman can keep this fight upright, he has a good chance to outproduce Brunson. However, engaging in a war of strength and takedowns will only result in Brunson grinding him out for three rounds.
Prediction: Brunson def. Herman via decision
Miesha Tate vs. Sara McMann
7 of 7
Capping off the prelims are the women, as former Strikeforce champion and former UFC title challenger Miesha Tate looks to stick to her winning ways against Olympic silver medalist and former UFC title challenger Sara McMann.
McMann is a wrestling machine whose mission in each fight is to close the distance, grab a hold of her opponent and put her on the mat. She does this with ease, which has led to an impressive 8-1 pro record.
She had an impressive resume coming into the UFC and looks to keep putting wins on it. Other than her crushing defeat to undefeated champion Ronda Rousey, McMann has scored UFC wins over German striker Sheila Gaff and former Invicta bantamweight champion Lauren Murphy, though it was a close bout.
In Tate, you have one of the most popular female fighters in the world—probably the second-most popular outside of Rousey. She is also a wrestler, although she has improved her striking greatly since Strikeforce.
She is 2-2 in the UFC and has been one of the more active female fighters under the company banner. Her losses to Rousey and Cat Zingano have become more distant now that she has earned decisions over Liz Carmouche and Rin Nakai.
Tate is strongest when she's wrestling, but she's not going to outwrestle McMann. Her best bet is to keep this fight on the feet, where she will likely outpoint McMann.
Prediction: Tate def. McMann via decision
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