The Most Concerning Statistic for Every AP Top 25 College Basketball Team
Life is good for the vast majority of college basketball teams in the Associated Press Top 25 poll in mid-January.
After all, they have an inside track to an NCAA tournament spot and are generally recognized as the best teams in the country. Chances are, the eventual national champion is among the 25 teams currently ranked.
However, every team has at least one flaw. With that in mind, here is a look at the most concerning statistic for every ranked team.
25. Iowa: Field-Goal Percentage (42 Percent, 255th in Nation)
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Iowa has its eyes on an impressive run in the NCAA tournament, but the only way that will become a reality is with more efficient offense.
The Big Ten is still one of the most physically grueling leagues in the country, and the defenses typically play at a high level every single night. Perhaps if the Hawkeyes can make the Big Dance, things will open up for the offense, but for now, the field-goal percentage is concerning.
24. Seton Hall: Free-Throw Percentage (64.8 Percent, 299th in Nation)
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Free throws are one of the most overlooked aspects of a basketball game until they don’t go in, and Seton Hall fans would be forgiven if they worry about the 64.8 percent mark from the stripe.
That could be a problem in March when an NCAA tournament game is going down to the wire and the Pirates have to hit a couple of critical free throws in the final seconds.
23. Indiana: Points Allowed Per Game (71.4, 296th in Nation)
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Tom Crean has Indiana back in the national discussion with an impressive offense, but the defense still needs some work.
Granted, raw points-per-game numbers are often misleading because they don’t take pace into account, but the Hoosiers are still 195th in Pomeroy’s pace-adjusted defensive efficiency rankings. If defense does win championships, Crean won’t be cutting any nets down this season.
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22. Dayton: Rebounds Per Game (33.2, 253rd in Nation)
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Dayton has a couple of solid individual rebounders, but the team as a whole needs to improve in this area to replicate last season’s dramatic NCAA tournament run.
Possession is everything down the stretch of close March games, and the Flyers could get burned by easy second-chance opportunities. Again, every point counts in close March contests, and rebounding should not be overlooked.
21. Baylor: Field-Goal Percentage (42.2 Percent, 247th in Nation)
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The Big 12 is loaded this year, and one flaw could cost teams a number of close games.
Baylor has already seen what can happen when it struggles to put the ball in the basket in losses to Illinois, Kansas, Kansas State and Oklahoma. The Bears scored 63 points or fewer in each of those contests and less than 60 in two of them. The poor shooting is reason for concern.
20. Northern Iowa: Rebounds Per Game (31.9, 296th in Nation)
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Sometimes the difference between mid-majors and power-conference teams is the play in the paint, and Northern Iowa has trouble rebounding the basketball. In fact, there isn’t a player on this team who averages better than 6.2 boards a night.
The Panthers are talented enough to survive in the Missouri Valley Conference with rebounding like that, but it will likely be a problem against elite competition in March.
19. Oklahoma: Assists Per Game (12.6, 186th in Nation)
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Oklahoma is a respectable No. 47 in Pomeroy’s offensive rankings, but that number would be more impressive if it shared the ball more effectively.
Jordan Woodard is averaging 4.4 assists per game, but nobody else on the team is even averaging two assists a night. That is an alarming realization for a team that is ranked in the Top 20.
18. West Virginia: Defensive Rebounds Per Game (20.8, 331st in Nation)
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West Virginia needs to get back to the boxing-out fundamentals that are drilled into basketball players when they are 10 years old because being No. 331 in the nation in any statistic is incredibly concerning.
It will be very difficult to pick up critical wins in the loaded Big 12 without better work on the defensive glass.
17. Texas: Steals Per Game (4.3, 342nd in Nation)
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Steals per game may not be as important as other statistics like rebounding or shooting percentage, but Texas is 342nd in the nation in this category. That at least warrants a mention.
As long as the Longhorns clean up the glass and play efficient offense, the steals won’t be that concerning, but more pressure defense could bolster Texas’ chances in the NCAA tournament.
16. VCU: Defensive Rebounds Per Game (22.3, 284th in Nation)
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VCU’s defensive rebounding numbers are a bit misconstrued because it puts so much full-court pressure on the opposing offense that many of the defensive stops come because of turnovers.
However, the Rams are 284th in the nation in this stat, which is reason for concern. Whether those second-chance opportunities come back to haunt VCU in the tournament remains to be seen.
15. North Carolina: Three-Point Percentage (32 Percent, 243rd in Nation)
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North Carolina struggled from behind the three-point arc a season ago, and the same issue is rearing its ugly head again.
In fact, no Tar Heel player is hitting better than 39.1 percent from deep, which makes defending this team much easier. If opponents pack the paint against North Carolina and cut off penetration, offense will be a major problem down the stretch of the season.
14. Wichita State: Rebounds Per Game (35.9, 128th in Nation)
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Wichita State is solid across the statistical board, which is why a mediocre stat (128th in the nation) is the biggest reason for concern for the Shockers.
There are certainly a number of top teams in the nation that can pound the Shockers down low, but the rebounding numbers aren’t terribly worrisome until March. They will only be a problem then against teams that are particularly strong down low.
13. Maryland: Steals Per Game (5.1, 307th in Nation)
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Maryland lands on here for the same statistic that Texas does, but it has to be mentioned that the Terrapins are 307th in the nation in a statistic.
The lack of pressure defense has not caught up to Maryland yet thanks to impressive play from Melo Trimble and Dez Wells, among others, but it would give this team another dimension. That could be the difference between a Sweet 16 appearance and a Final Four run.
12. Utah: Free-Throw Percentage (67.3 Percent, 226th in Nation)
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Utah is quietly one of the best teams in the country, but it may miss its chance to prove to the nation just how good it is in March if it misses critical free throws down the stretch of a tournament game.
The good news for the Utes is that three players on the roster shoot better than 80 percent, so they can get the ball to the right guys when it matters most. It is the points this team leaves on the line in the middle of the game that could be most concerning.
11. Kansas: Field-Goal Percentage (43.5 Percent, 178th in Nation)
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Thus far, Kansas has had trouble shooting the ball, and that is concerning with the one-and-done NCAA tournament looming on the horizon.
One off night from the field could spell the end of the season for the Jayhawks, even if the defense comes to play. Granted, the game against Kentucky threw off the shooting numbers a bit, but there has been a large enough sample size now that it is reason for concern.
10. Louisville: Three-Point Percentage (29.4 Percent, 320th in Nation)
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Louisville is what it is at this point of the season.
The Cardinals are a dominant defensive team that features a future NBA player down low in Montrezl Harrell, but the long-range shooting will likely be a problem all year. Even Duke went into zone against Louisville and won the game because Rick Pitino’s squad simply doesn’t have the personnel to make opponents pay for allowing outside looks.
9. Iowa State: Points Allowed Per Game (66.9, 192nd in Nation)
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Iowa State plays with impressive pace (16th in the nation in Pomeroy’s adjusted tempo), which lends itself to higher points-allowed totals.
Still, the Cyclones are only 51st in Pomeroy’s pace-adjusted defensive numbers, so it’s not as if this is actually a dominant defensive squad that is just the victim of its own style. Iowa State is loaded with offensive threats, but until it plays better defense, there will be a ceiling on what it can accomplish this season.
8. Notre Dame: Rebounds Per Game (34.3, 205th in Nation)
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If Pat Connaughton or Zach Auguste doesn’t grab the rebound for Notre Dame, it is likely going to the other team.
While it is nice to have two effective rebounders on the roster, there needs to be more of a team effort if the Fighting Irish plan on challenging for the Final Four. Andrew Owens of Blue & Gold Illustrated noted that rebounding was a particular problem in the recent game against Miami, which helped counter the effective defense the Fighting Irish were playing.
The value of possession in the NCAA tournament cannot be overstated, and rebounding will be critical late in March.
7. Arizona: Blocks Per Game (3.4, 186th in Nation)
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Considering the size that Arizona brings to the table with Kaleb Tarczewski and Brandon Ashley, among others, it is somewhat surprising to see the Wildcats so low in the blocks-per-game category.
In fact, there are five individual players across the country who average more blocks per game than the entire Arizona team. A little more rim protection will turn this Wildcats team into an even better defensive squad, which is worrisome for the rest of the Pac-12.
6. Wisconsin: Steals Per Game (5.1, 312th in Nation)
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Wisconsin slows the tempo down every single game, which leads to fewer turnovers on both ends of the floor. The lack of steals per game isn’t much of an issue given the Badgers’ style, but it is still their most concerning statistic among an otherwise impressive resume.
This could be a problem only if the Badgers need to force some turnovers late in a postseason game when they are trailing.
5. Duke: Blocks Per Game (3.8, 144th in Nation)
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A big part of Duke’s problem last season was the lack of rim protection. Jahlil Okafor has helped that somewhat (1.6 blocks per game), but teams are not afraid to challenge the Blue Devils inside.
Even coach Mike Krzyzewski noted that defense was a problem in two recent ACC losses, via Powell Latimer of the News & Record: “We're not as confident as we have been. I think that's part of being young. We're playing really well and whatever, and then adversity hits and things star not going so well. ... Our defense has been nonexistent for two games."
Whether that defense becomes a serious issue or not in the NCAA tournament for the second year in a row remains to be seen.
4. Villanova: Rebounds Per Game (35.2, 165th in Nation)
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There is nothing overwhelmingly alarming about Villanova’s rebounding numbers, but a better performance on the glass could be the difference between a Final Four run and an early exit in the tournament.
The Wildcats will likely bolster those numbers in Big East play, but they could have problems against the Kentuckys of the world down low in the NCAA tournament.
3. Gonzaga: Blocks Per Game (3.5, 179th in Nation)
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Where is Kelly Olynyk when you need him?
While Gonzaga has been one of the best teams in the country and will once again be a squad no power-conference squad wants to see in the NCAA tournament, there isn’t much rim protection in place. In fact, not a single member of the Zags is averaging even one block per game this year.
2. Virginia: Steals Per Game (5.0, 314th in Nation)
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Like Wisconsin, this steals-per-game stat is a direct result of Virginia’s slower tempo.
The Cavaliers limit the number of possessions in a game, which in turn limits the number of turnovers on either end. That style is great unless Virginia somehow falls behind by double digits early in a postseason game.
Only then will the Cavaliers wish they were better at pressuring the ball and creating turnovers.
1. Kentucky: Field-Goal Percentage (45.8 Percent, 72nd in Nation)
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It’s fairly obvious to anyone watching that Kentucky isn’t exactly loaded with flaws.
If there is any nitpicking to be done, it is in the field-goal percentage department. The Wildcats are only 72nd in the nation in shooting, which isn’t terrible but also doesn’t live up to Kentucky standards.
As long as the Wildcats continue to play lockdown defense, the shooting won’t really be much of a problem.
Ken Pomeroy numbers courtesy of KenPom.com.
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