Super Bowl 2015: Patriots vs. Seahawks Box Score Predictions, Stat Comparisons
Rarely do stats tell the whole story, but they certainly paint a clear picture when it comes to the Super Bowl XLIX showdown between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots.
There are some statistical discrepancies between the teams that could help predict what the ultimate outcome will be on Feb. 1.
With that in mind, here is a look at some stat comparisons from different position groups as well as box score predictions for the big game.
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Quarterbacks
New England’s Tom Brady finished the 2014 season with a 64.1 completion percentage, 4,109 passing yards, 33 touchdown tosses and only nine interceptions. It all added up to an impressive passer rating of 97.4.
His counterpart, Seattle’s Russell Wilson, finished the 2014 campaign with a 63.1 completion percentage, 3,475 passing yards, 20 touchdown passes and only seven interceptions, which resulted in a passer rating of 95.
Wilson certainly has an advantage in the rushing department with 849 rushing yards and six scores on the ground compared to Brady’s 57 yards and zero touchdowns this season (although Brady ran one in during the divisional round win over the Baltimore Ravens).
While Wilson has that advantage with his legs, there has never been a better postseason quarterback statistically than Brady. His six Super Bowl appearances are the most all time by a quarterback, as are his 20 postseason wins. He also leapfrogged Peyton Manning for the most passing yards in playoff history during Sunday’s victory over the Indianapolis Colts.
Brady discussed the Super Bowl matchup, via Pete Prisco of CBS Sports: “We're playing a great team. That's why they're in it too. They've overcome a lot of adversity too. They're really well coached, but we have two weeks to prepare. We'll be ready to go."
The problem for Brady is that he has to face the league’s best defense in the Seahawks, whereas Wilson will face a Patriots defense that was 17th in the league against the pass. That difference will reflect in their respective box scores during the Super Bowl.
| Completion Percentage | 61 | 67 |
| Passing Yards | 189 | 174 |
| Passing Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 1 |
| Rushing Yards | 63 | 7 |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
Running Backs
The Seahawks were first in the NFL in rushing yards, partially because of Wilson, but the quarterback certainly had some serious help. Running back Marshawn Lynch gashed opposing defenses for 1,306 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns on the ground and helped set the tempo for every Seattle game with the read-option look.
Wilson and Lynch are both incredibly dangerous runners, and defenders are often forced to pick between the two on the read-option. That leads to big-time runs for both, although Lynch’s are typically more entertaining because he drags defenders along for the ride when he enters “Beast Mode.”
Seattle will try to use that running game to control the clock and keep Brady on the sidelines.
The Patriots were only 18th in the league in rushing yards, but they proved just how dangerous they can be on the ground during Sunday’s win over the Colts.
LeGarrette Blount ran for 148 yards and three touchdowns in the game and brings a similar physically-bruising style between the tackles that Lynch does for Seattle. He has rejuvenated the Patriots rushing attack since coming over from Pittsburgh and averaged 4.7 yards per carry on his way to 281 rushing yards in five games for New England.
His numbers aren’t going to blow anyone away, but he is a productive back when he gets enough carries.
Keep in mind when looking at these predicted box scores, though, that Blount too has to face a dominant Seattle defense that finished third in the league against the run.
| Rushes | 26 | 17 |
| Rushing Yards | 112 | 53 |
| Rushing Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Receiving Yards | 32 | 10 |
| Touchdown Catches | 0 | 0 |
Wide Receivers/Tight Ends
The NFL today can only be described as a pass-happy league that features wide receivers running all over the field making the plays. However, that probably won’t be the case in the Super Bowl.
The Patriots’ top weapon in the passing attack is tight end Rob Gronkowski instead of a receiver, and he finished with 1,124 receiving yards and 12 touchdown catches. He is a matchup nightmare because he is usually too athletic for a linebacker and too physically imposing for a safety.
If opposing defenses focus too much on Gronkowski, Brady will find Julian Edelman, who finished the season with 972 receiving yards and four touchdown catches.
As mentioned, Seattle is the top rushing team in the league and doesn’t throw it that often, but when it does, Wilson looks toward Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse. Baldwin finished with 825 receiving yards and three touchdown catches, while Kearse tallied 537 receiving yards and one touchdown catch.
Kearse also hauled in the game-winning touchdown against the Green Bay Packers in overtime of the NFC Championship Game.
While Seattle will mix in the pass when New England devotes too many guys to the box, the most intriguing matchup will be Seattle’s secondary against Gronkowski.
If there is one team in the league built to slow down a machine at tight end, it is Seattle with safety Kam Chancellor. Chancellor is a physical monster who will lay the lumber to anyone who dares cross the middle, but he is more than fast enough to stick with Gronkowski.
Thanks to the presence of Chancellor in the middle of the field, Gronkowski will be somewhat limited during the Super Bowl.
| Catches | 8 | 9 | 4 | 3 |
| Receiving Yards | 64 | 78 | 65 | 38 |
| Touchdown Catches | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Defenses
On paper, this is where Seattle has the biggest advantage
The Seahawks finished first in the league in yards allowed, first in scoring defense, first against the pass and third against the run. They physically overwhelm teams at the line of scrimmage and can commit extra defenders to stopping the run because they know they have the best secondary in the league waiting in the defensive backfield.
The corners can handle man-to-man coverage on their sides of the field, and the safeties are constantly roaming, looking to make a game-swinging play.
There is also a level of toughness that is difficult to match, as Kevin Burkhardt of Fox pointed out:
As for the Patriots, they were 13th in yards allowed, eighth in scoring defense, 17th against the pass and ninth against the run. Outside of the passing defense, there is nothing in particular that is too concerning for New England fans. It’s just not quite Seattle-level defense.
The difference in this game will be the Seahawks’ dominating defense. Sure, the statistics jump out, but Seattle’s group should also be well-rested during the Super Bowl because the Seahawks’ top-ranked rushing attack will pick up chunks of yards and keep the chains moving against the New England defense.
That will keep Brady on the sidelines and the Seattle defense fresh all game. It will also keep the Lombardi Trophy in the Pacific Northwest.
| Sacks | 3 | 2 |
| Interceptions | 1 | 0 |
| Fumble Recoveries | 1 | 1 |
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