Carolina Kostner's Ban Won't Have a Major Impact on Women's Figure Skating

At first, the headline carries a ton of weight: Former world champion Carolina Kostner banned for 16 months.

Then, you look at the bigger picture and realize that the suspension is rather inconsequential.

News broke yesterday of Kostner's punishment. According to The Associated Press (via FoxSports.com), she purposefully deceived inspectors from the World Anti-Doping Agency who were trying to locate her ex-boyfriend, Alex Schwazer:

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Kostner maintains that she did not know Schwazer doped. However, published reports of Kostner's testimony to prosecutors in Bolzano showed she admitted to lying to WADA inspectors who came to her home in Germany looking for Schwazer on July 30, 2012 -- days before Schwazer flew to London for the Olympics.

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"I'm certainly not happy, in fact I'm very disheartened and very disappointed," she said after the verdict. "I'm determined to go right to the end, right to the last level of justice."

Philip Hersh of the Chicago Tribune and Los Angeles Times added that Kostner will be unable to appear in any event sanctioned by the International Skating Union:

Kostner is one of the most decorated female figure skaters in the world. She won an Olympic bronze medal in 2014, a world championship in 2012 and five European championships in a span of seven years.

Francois Mori/Associated Press

Having such an established star forbidden from competing for 16 months would seemingly be a big deal.

However, the next Winter Olympics are three years away, and her ban will officially end on May 16, 2016. That leaves Kostner with plenty of time to get into peak form and earn a place in Pyeongchang, South Korea. She'd start her quest with a bit of a hurdle, but it wouldn't be impossible for her to make the Olympic team.

The other stars hoping to medal in South Korea will have a little bit of a boost, but her absence won't open the door for other skaters to emerge. That's either already happened or would've happened anyway.

Somewhat coincidentally, Kostner is already in the middle of a yearlong sabbatical from competitive ice skating. Back in June, she revealed on her Facebook page that she would be taking a break.

"Dear friends, I decided not to compete this season and to commit myself on ice shows (like Intimissimi on Ice—Pop Opera), university and friends! On Vanity Fair Italy, today you will be able to read more about it!," she wrote (via IceNetwork.com).

It's not like this suspension comes in the middle of a great campaign from Kostner, one in which she was en route to a world championship. In effect, the ban is only 12 months.

Also pertinent to the discussion is Kostner's age, 27.

Like tennis players, figure skaters peak very young. Only two skaters in history have won Olympic medals after turning 30: Evgeni Plushenko in 2014 and Ethel Muckelt in 1924. In fact, Kostner was the second-oldest female skater to medal since 1928.

By the time the 2018 Olympics roll around, Kostner will have just turned 31 years old. Even without the ban, she'd still be facing a major uphill battle to medal at the Olympics. Her best days are firmly behind her.

As OlympicTalk's Nick Zaccardi tweeted out, it felt like the Italian star was all but done as a competitive skater already:

According to the AP report, Kostner will appeal her suspension, so it may get lessened by a few months. She may also get her name cleared in the court of public opinion.

Whatever the Court of Arbitration for Sport decides, though, is unlikely to have a demonstrable impact on Kostner's chances in 2018.