NFL Conference Championship Picks and Predictions: The Ultimate Bettor's Guide

Nick KostosJan 16, 2015

To my fellow members of #TeamDegenerate, we stand on the precipice of the single greatest day on the sports calendar: Championship Sunday in the National Football League. With Super Bowl berths on the line, the stakes are incredibly high, making it ridiculously fun to wager your hard-earned money on.

Last week, I preached fiscal restraint and urged you not to gamble on games that you didn't feel confident in. This week, I can't dole out that same advice. There are only three games left in the NFL season, and damn it, I'm going to wager on all of them.

I'm always honest with the audience, and I wrote last week that I felt the divisional round was the toughest NFL playoff weekend to handicap in quite some time (naturally, I ended up going 3-1 and nailing my best bet of Baltimore +7). I don't feel the same this week.

I actually feel great about both games on Sunday. And while that usually means I'd advise you to sprint in the other direction and fade the ever-loving crap out of my picks, I'm just too confident in my selections to do so.

This is it, peeps. The last chance to make some money before Super Bowl Sunday. The last chance to wager on more than one NFL game in the same day until September. Let's make it count.

It's time to make that money, yo.

Playoffs ATS: 4-4

Playoffs Best Bets: 2-0 (Detroit (+6.5) at Dallas, Baltimore (+7) at New England)

Regular Season ATS: 140-112-5

Regular Season Best Bets ATS: 44-41

NFC Championship Game: Green Bay at Seattle

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Scott Eklund/Associated Press

The Line: Green Bay at Seattle (-7.5)

When the line for the NFC Championship Game was released (Seattle -7), I didn't wait. I couldn't wait. Like an especially hungry cheetah, I pounced, grabbing the Seahawks with the points. And at the time, I couldn't have been happier with myself.

After all, everyone knows that Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers—who is currently nursing the world's most famous calf injury—isn't operating at 100 percent capacity. How could a hobbled Rodgers possibly contend with the bruising Seattle defense in front of the rabid and bloodthirsty Seahawks fans? He won't, obviously. Right?

Over the course of the week, I became more confident in my pick. After all, the Seahawks will be playing at home, where they possess arguably the finest home-field advantage in the NFL. Plus, they're the NFL's hottest team, winners of seven straight games. What could possibly go wrong?

But on Thursday, something hit me like a ton of bricks: This is Aaron Rodgers and the Packers we're talking about here. Isn't it a little disrespectful to think the best quarterback in the NFL is going to get blown out in a championship game?

And then I remembered the six quarterbacks that the Seahawks have beaten on their win streak: Drew Stanton, Colin Kaepernick (twice), Mark Sanchez, Ryan Lindley, Shaun Hill and Cam Newton. None exactly compare to Rodgers.

And then I remembered how difficult it is for the defending Super Bowl champion to get back to the big game, a feat that hasn't been accomplished since the 2003-04 New England Patriots.

And then I remembered that I'm an absolute blithering idiot, and that my first instinct was to pound the Seahawks with the points.

Don't try to tell me what happened in Week 1. I know the Seahawks handled the Packers in the Pacific Northwest. I just don't care, yo! Why? Because both teams are radically different now than they were then. Green Bay has seen young position players—most notably rookie receiver Davante Adams—begin to emerge, giving Rodgers new weapons to work with. And despite the public hype, Seattle is not unbeatable at home.

You're going to spot me 7.5 points and I get the best quarterback in the league with a Super Bowl berth on the line? Done and done, homie.

I love Green Bay with the points, and damn it, I'm pulling the trigger on the upset special.

Give me Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers to go into Seattle, win the game outright and advance to Super Bowl XLIX.

The Pick: Green Bay (+7.5)

AFC Championship Game: Indianapolis at New England

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AJ Mast/Associated Press

The Line: Indianapolis at New England (-6.5)

It seems like the New England Patriots and Indianapolis Colts have played in something like 50 of the last 51 AFC Championship Games, so it should come as no surprise that the two franchises will renew acquaintances on Sunday with a berth in Super Bowl XLIX on the line.

Except this time, Andrew Luck is the Colts quarterback, not Peyton Manning, adding a new level of excitement and intrigue to the proceedings. Can Luck outduel Tom Brady and advance to the Super Bowl in only his third season?

And for the Patriots, this is a massive contest. Despite their perennial success, Bill Belichick's team hasn't won a Super Bowl in 10 years, and the season would have to be considered a colossal disappointment if they were to lose to Indianapolis.

If you're going to handicap this game based on the two prior times these teams have met, you've probably already wagered your mortgage and the college fund for your first-born child on New England. The Patriots have smashed the Colts in both games (winning by a combined score of 85-42), rushing for about 7,131 yards and 47 touchdowns in the process (and I'm only exaggerating slightly).

But you know what I say? To hell with the past results. To hell with the Patriots killing the Colts in last year's divisional round. To hell with the Week 11 evisceration on Sunday Night Football. None of it matters. What matters is the here and now, damn it.

The Colts have evolved into a complete football team at the right time. While the old narrative said that the Colts were merely Luck and 52 other guys, that's no longer the case. Luck's supporting cast—from running back Dan "Boom" Herron to defensive end Jonathan Newsome—has stepped up in a major way, and Indianapolis has the look and feel of a confident team with nothing to lose.

Meanwhile, the Patriots have everything to lose. They're expected to win, and the home crowd will surely become restless if the outcome is ever in doubt.

The Colts just went into Denver and beat the Broncos so badly that Denver fired its coach. Indianapolis is not a team to be trifled with, and the fact that they're nearly a touchdown underdog is glorious beyond belief.

Plus, the numbers dictate that the Colts are the play, with about 65 percent of the public on the Patriots but the line moving toward Indianapolis (from +7 to +6.5).

Do I think the Colts will ultimately win the game? No, I don't. I have too much respect for the 2014 Patriots to think they'll lose at home in the AFC Championship Game. So I won't be playing the Colts on the money line.

But you're damn right I'm taking Andrew Luck and company to cover the spread. It's my best bet, homie.

The Pick: Indianapolis (+6.5)