Louisville Showdown Is the Worst-Case Scenario for Suddenly Struggling Duke

"If there was any team I felt confident about beating, it was Duke because of the way they play and the way we play. I feel like we match up great with them, and we showed today."

That was what Miami point guard Angel Rodriguez told ESPN's Fran Fraschilla on Tuesday night after he ran circles around the Blue Devils.

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Louisville's Chris Jones and Terry Rozier could be recycling that quote on Saturday afternoon after they get their turn against Duke.

Yes, the guards of the ACC are salivating at the chance to face the Blue Devils.

This season has turned strange quickly for the Blue Devils, who were undefeated a week ago and likely on the verge of starting to steal some votes from Kentucky in the polls. 

The Blue Devils had not been great on the defensive end, but they had mostly masked their weaknesses. Now, after back-to-back losses to North Carolina State and Miami, the blueprint is out there on tape. 

How Miami exposed Duke was as simple as the game gets and not that different from how Louisville runs its offense.

The Hurricanes didn't really even run offense. They simply set a high ball screen—typically involving whomever Jahlil Okafor was guarding—and Miami's guards had two easy reads to make. 

If the Duke guard went under the screen, shoot a three. 

ESPN Screen Shot

If the Duke guard went over the screen, drive past him into the paint. 

ESPN Screen Shot

That was basically it. Simply spread the floor and attack. 

Mike Krzyzewski's teams have thrived for decades playing in-your-face pressure defense that makes opposing guards wet themselves. 

You've seen it before. The Blue Devils slap the floor, apply some pressure and boom. Turnover.

But to play that way, you have to have guards who can not only apply pressure but also keep their man in front of them. These guards Duke has aren't quick enough to play that way, and they're getting even more exposed because of Coach K's insistence on protecting his best player.

Jahlil Okafor is a decent defender around the basket, but get him out in space and he struggles.

That's why a lot of teams have had Okafor's man set a ton of ball screens. The Blue Devils had managed to not get burned too badly because you have to have guards who can really make plays, and they hadn't faced many teams that could take advantage. But both N.C. State and Miami had the guards to clean up.

It's not exactly Okafor's fault, because what Coach K has asked of him is to simply drop back and attempt to clog the lane. This is leaving Duke's guards on an island. 

The 'Canes basically took their turns attacking Duke's guards in space. They attacked Quinn Cook 11 times and ended up scoring 26 points on those opportunities—either with the guard scoring himself, getting fouled or dishing off to a teammate for an easy bucket. 

They went at Tyus Jones four times and scored seven points. Sixth man Rasheed Sulaimon got attacked four times, and Miami scored six points on those possessions.

	eFG%	ACC Rank	Def. Eff.	ACC Rank
ACC games	53.1	15th	107.5	9th

That's 39 points in 19 possessions—or 2.05 points per possession. That kind of efficiency would break Ken Pomeroy's site.

Miami also feasted on Duke's poor transition defense, and that's where Manu Lecomte scored a majority of his buckets. Miami's two backcourt spots (Rodriguez, Lecomte, Davon Reed and Ja'Quan Newton) combined for 55 points and 12 assists.

Now the Blue Devils get the treat of facing Jones and Rozier, who are playing as well as any backcourt duo in the country, averaging 36 points collectively over the past four games. 

Rozier is a terrific driver, and he's also capable of pulling up for jumpers off the dribble. He's an average three-point shooter (33.3 percent), but he just had one of his best shooting games this week, going 4-of-6 from three against Virginia Tech.

Jones struggled with decision-making and his shot over the first few months of the season, but he has been terrific since Rick Pitino benched him against Long Beach State. He's taking better shots and has been smart with the ball. 

"I think Chris Jones, my pet peeve with him is, Chris, 'Just listen, learn how to play this game the right way,' and I really think he's doing a fabulous job of that of late," Pitino said on Monday's ACC conference call. "He's asking a lot of questions. Where basically before he just played on raw emotion; he's thinking the game as well."

Jones averaged 21 points in the three games leading up to the Virginia Tech win. He didn't look to score as much against the Hokies—he had seven points on seven shots—but he dished out 11 assists. 

"I think against Duke he wouldn't do that," Pitino told the media after the game. "I think he was trying to get shots for everybody in the game and it was good."

Translation: We're going to unleash him against the Blue Devils.

The beauty for the Cardinals is that they don't really have to change who they are to exploit Duke's perimeter defense.

The Cards already set a lot of ball screens for Rozier and Jones, and their offense is built to get those two to make plays off the dribble.

Many of Louisville's sets, especially its early and late-clock offense, look a lot like exactly what Miami was running: a high ball screen with everyone else spacing the floor. 

ESPN Screen Shot

When the Canes were able to get their guards into the paint, Amile Jefferson was often forced to help, and that left his man open for a layup or dunk. 

This is exactly what Pitino hopes to accomplish. He likes to get Rozier and Jones attacking downhill, which lifts Montrezl Harrell's man and makes for an easy drive and dish.

ESPN Screen Shot

The best option for Duke might be to go under the screens and hope that the Cards don't burn them from deep. N.C. State and Miami combined to shoot 55.6 percent from deep. Louisville has been pretty inconsistent shooting the ball this year and has had some real clunkers. The Cards have six games where they've shot 25 percent or worse from beyond the arc.

Coach K would be crazy to not tinker with his ball-screen defense this week, and the Cards should expect to see some different looks.

Don't be shocked to see Okafor play a one-man zone in the paint and Jefferson defending the big man farthest from the hoop. Duke did some of this against Wisconsin.

Jefferson can handle himself fine in space. He was the one Blue Devil who played a good game on the defensive end against Miami. He's even capable of switching ball screens and defending guards. 

So it's not like Coach K doesn't have his own weapons. Eventually, the Blue Devils will get some of these issues solved. They're still going to have a great season. 

But if there was one team they wouldn't want to face as they try to figure out how to fix their perimeter D, it's the Cards. 

Who are feeling just like an Angel right now. 

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.