Can the Patriots Running Game Repeat Their Dominance over Colts?

New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is regarded as one of the most brilliant minds in football.

But it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out how the Patriots should attack the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship Game.

Run. The. Ball. Down. Their. Throats.

Opponent	Games	Att	Yds	YPA	TD
Colts	2	90	480	5.3	10
Everyone else	33	893	3624	4.1	30

The Patriots have streamrolled the Colts in the past two meetings by running the ball 90 times for 480 yards (5.3 YPA) and 10 touchdowns. Both times, the Patriots have had a running back eclipse the 160-yard mark while scoring four touchdowns.

The Colts defense is playing better down the stretch, and it has allowed 13 points or fewer in four of their past five games, but they've still been susceptible against the run in allowing more than 100 rushing yards in five of their past six games. 

But here's the thing: The Patriots don't come into this meeting with a lot of momentum on the ground. In fact, they rushed for only 14 yards in their win over the Baltimore Ravens, giving them the record for the lowest rushing total by a winning team in playoff history.

So, basically, what we have on our hands could be a meeting between a stoppable force and a movable object, contrary to the popular trope. That being said, the Patriots aren't about to just abandon the running game because of one bad performance.

"We're confident in everything we're doing. I think we wouldn't be doing it if we weren't [confident in it]," said Patriots quarterback Tom Brady in a press conference on Thursday. "That's just the way the game turned out. When you're down twice by 14 points, just sometimes that's the way the game goes. Whatever you've got to do to win and advance, that's what matters. Obviously we want to be balanced, we've got to be able to run the ball really well, we've got to be able to throw well. We ran it great against these guys last time. We've got to run it great again this time."

The return of defensive tackle Arthur Jones has helped the Colts field a competent run defense.

The Colts have still given up yards in bunches on the ground, but the per-carry averages of their opponents have been very low. The opposing running backs have been held short of four yards per carry in seven of the past eight games. The Colts' divisional-round win over the Broncos is the lone exception, with an average of 4.4 yards per carry, but the Broncos only rushed 20 times for 88 yards because they were trailing for most of the game.

The Colts were humbled by their poor performance against the Patriots, which put a chip on their shoulder.

"They embarrassed us. Let's be frank," said safety Mike Adams Adams after the Colts beat the Cincinnati Bengals, per Colts.com. "They had 200 yards on us. That doesn't sit right with any defense, any defense. We knew going into any other game teams were going to run the ball, run the ball, run the ball. So, we knew we got to stop that runner and make teams one-dimensional. That's what we've been doing. We just have to keep that going."

If the Colts are able to keep that going this week, they'll be putting the game into Brady's hands.

Opponent	Comp	Att	%	Yds	YPA	TD	INT	Rate
Colts	32	55	58.2	442	8	2	2	81
Everyone else	811	1296	62.4	8615	6.6	62	19	91.7

He has stood up to that test plenty of times in his career, and last week against the Ravens, he earned his third playoff win in games where he attempted 50 passes or more. Brady is 3-1 in the playoffs when attempting 50 passes or more; for comparison, every other quarterback is 3-27 in the playoffs under those same circumstances.

Not only is the running game important for its own sake, but for the sake of the passing game as well. According to Pro Football Focus, Brady has attempted 26.3 percent of his passes after a play-action fake. That percentage ranks fifth in the NFL out of 27 qualifying quarterbacks. His completion percentage is 3.7 points higher and his passer rating is 10.2 points higher off of play-action than it is on standard drop-backs.

How scary it must be that Brady plays even better when the running game is playing at a high level.

At the same time, how ironic it is that in a game featuring one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game and one of the hottest young quarterbacks in the game today, the focus is on the running game. As it should be.