Australian Open 2015: Analyzing Roger Federer's Draw
The tennis gods served Roger Federer a 140 mph serve right down the T, and it’s not even worth challenging.
Wait? Is he signaling to the umpire for a replay?
Clap.
Clap.
Clap. Clap.
Clapclapclapclap!
Ah! Definitely in. And tennis analyst John McEnroe says, “I wouldn’t have challenged that one.” Score one for the gods.
Federer got hosed as the No. 2 seed in 2015 Australian Open.
Craig O’Shannessy of AusOpen.com wrote:
"The draw has not been kind to Federer, as he has potential road-blocks from start to finish. An 18th Grand Slam title at the age of 33 is certainly possible, but it is going to require a steely nerve and straightforward matches not to sap his energy in week one. Staying fresh for the second week will be crucial as he attempts to rewrite the history books once again.
"
Federer better have something in reserve, because his run to Grand Slam No. 18 looks about as welcoming as a hike through Mordor.
Read on to see where the hurdles are in Federer’s mighty draw.
The Opening Round
1 of 6
Opponent: Yen-Hsun Lu
Head-to-Head: 2-0
Last Meeting: ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Shanghai, 6-3, 7-5 Federer
It may not be safe to assume that Federer will coast into the third or fourth round. Even though he’s accomplished a lot to climb into the No. 2 spot in the world rankings, he didn't have an easy path.
Yen-Hsun Lu has never beaten Federer in their two meetings, but in their last match Lu took Federer to 12 games in the second set at Masters 1000 Shanghai.
Craig O’Shannessy of AusOpen.com wrote, “Lu has won his opening round at the Australian Open for the past three years and caused a huge upset in 2009 by defeating No. 11 seed David Nalbandian in five sets. Lu is definitely not to be looked past in the draw by the Swiss maestro."
We can expect a first-round win for Federer. He hasn’t lost in the first round in a Grand Slam since the 2003 French Open. Let's move on to the second round.
The Second Round
2 of 6
Likely Opponent: Simone Bolelli or Juan Monaco
Head-to-Head: vs. Bolelli, 3-0; vs. Monaco, 4-0
Last Meeting: Win vs. Bolelli at SUI vs. ITA WG SF, 7-6(5), 6-4, 6-4 in 2014; Win vs. Monaco at Masters 1000 Paris, 6-3, 7-5 in 2011
Monaco has never been past the third round in the Australian Open and only took one set from Federer in his entire career. This was back in 2007.
As for Bolelli, he hasn’t been past the second round, which he reached in 2009.
If Federer remains focused on the idea of energy conservation for matches down the road, he should dispose of either one of these players in straights.
Now it starts getting a bit tougher for him.
The Third Round
3 of 6
Likely Opponent: Jeremy Chardy
Head-to-Head: 2-1
Last Meeting: Win in R32, Masters 1000 Paris, 7-6(5), 6-7(5), 6-4
Chardy is the No. 29 seed in this year’s renewal of the Australian Open, and he has defeated Federer in the past.
This was on clay in the Masters 1000 Rome in the round of 32, a 6-3, 7-6(5) win. Chardy manages to play Federer very tough. The last time these two played in Paris, Federer needed two tiebreaks.
"Chardy matches up really well against Federer, and all three of their encounters in 2014 went the distance. Chardy lost 6-3 in the third set in Brisbane, saved a match point in Rome in defeating Federer 8-6 in the third set tiebreak, and then lost 6-4 in the third set at the Paris Masters. Chardy believes, which makes him even more lethal.
"
This could be a five-setter and the first indication of blood in the water for Federer—or complete annihilation if he's not careful.
.jpg?w=256 "Colts Jaguars Football")
The Fourth Round
4 of 6
Likely Opponent: Tommy Robredo
Head-to-Head: 11-1
Last Meeting: Win in R16 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 at 2014 Wimbledon
Robredo sits at No. 17 in the world and is the No. 15 seed in this tournament.
He has a history of facing Federer in Grand Slams with his most famous—and only—triumph coming at the 2013 U.S. Open in straight sets.
The Spaniard had quality losses against Andy Murray in the finals of a tournament in Valencia and against U.S. Open champ Marin Cilic in Moscow.
AusOpen.com’s Craig O’Shannessy called Robredo “in-form,” a term he reveres as dangerous heading into these types of tournaments.
With Robredo possibly giving Federer a four- to five-set headache, it only gets worse for Fed.
The Quarterfinals
5 of 6
Likely Opponent: Grigor Dimitrov or Andy Murray
Head-to-Head: vs. Dimitrov, 3-0; vs. Murray, 12-11
Last Meeting: 6-2, 6-2 win vs. Dimitrov in Brisbane International semis; 6-0, 6-0 win at Barclays ATP World Tour Finals
In the second week, things get real.
Federer now runs into some battle-tested players, with one in possession of two Grand Slams—Murray.
Murray boasts 11 wins against Federer, with his last coming back in the Australian Open semis in 2013.
Murray’s head-to-head stats are a tad bloated since he beat Federer six of the first eight times they faced each other starting back in 2005. Since Murray’s hot early run, he’s 5-10 against Federer as they started meeting each other later and later in tournaments.
Murray, no doubt, will want revenge after their last match when he nearly got double-bageled in Great Britain.
As for Dimitrov, he’s often called “Baby Fed.” He has a smooth, capable game that can strike deep into Federer’s heart.
By this time, will fatigue have set in for Federer? Bleacher Report’s Christopher Simpson thinks so:
"Federer's fatigue will prove a huge obstacle in Melbourne. The potential of playing five sets in the summer heat is a daunting one for most, let alone a 33-year-old who has barely had a break in the last year.
As important as it is that Federer remains fit in order to keep up with his younger opponents, he's at the stage now where it's equally important he manage his body correctly. This means taking the time to rest and recover, which he hasn't done.
"
Say Federer fights past this round—he may find his old left-handed friend waiting for him in the semis.
The Semifinals
6 of 6
Likely (?) Opponent: Rafael Nadal
Head-to-Head: 10-23 (!)
Last Meeting: Straight-set loss in 2014 Australian Open semifinals
If Federer makes it this far, it will be one of his greatest accomplishments as a pro.
The folks who drew up the draw did him no favors, but they did grant Nadal one of the easier trips to the semis.
The highest-seeded player on Nadal’s quarter of the bracket is No. 7 seed Tomas Berdych. Beyond that, there’s no player of notoriety.
If Nadal and Federer somehow get this far, we will know two things for certain: Nadal’s wrist injury is a thing of the past, and he’s for real in this tournament. That’s a terrible sign for Federer.
Craig O’Shannessy of AusOpen.com wrote:
"Nadal defeated Federer in straight sets in the Australian Open semis last year, and also in the same round in 2012. They contested a thrilling final Down Under in 2009, which Nadal won in five sets. It’s a tough ask for Federer to climb the Nadal mountain here in Melbourne – an opponent he has never conquered at this tournament.
"
Then there’s Novak Djokovic on the other side of the bracket.
There are no words to express what that must feel like.
All head-to-head numbers came from ATPWorldTour.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Colts Jaguars Football")
