Marcus Mariota's Achilles' Heel Costs Ducks National Title

Oregon Ducks quarterback Marcus Mariota has been hailed as the best college football player in 2014. He hardly looked the part in a 42-20 loss to Ohio State in the College Football Playoff National Championship. There's a lot of blame to go around for the loss, and Mariota deserves his share.

Other than Oregon's inability to stop Ohio State's rushing attack, the main storyline was Mariota's poor performance in the red zone. It's been a weakness in his otherwise spotless game for some time. On Monday night, it became far more noticeable than before.  

Mariota's stat sheet against the Buckeyes looked fine on paper. The redshirt junior finished with 333 yards on 24-of-37 passing and a pair of touchdowns plus a pick as time expired. However, almost all of those yards were picked up outside the red zone. When the field shrunk and the windows got tight, Mariota had just two completions on five attempts for 10 yards and a touchdown pass.

As Bomani Jones noted, this performance "wasn't good for Mariota's demo tape":

Overall, Oregon had four trips to the red zone on 14 possessions and came away with one touchdown—and that was on the first possession of the game. That speaks volumes about Ohio State's defense all night, but that's especially true when it absolutely had to hunker down and make a stop. 

The national championship was a game of missed opportunities. Ultimately, Oregon's failure to capitalize on four Ohio State turnovers and red-zone possessions proved too costly. 

Here's how each of those possessions transpired: 

Opportunity	Plays	Mariota	Result
1	3	1-of-1	7-yard passing touchdown
2	4	1-of-2	Turnover on downs
3	3	0-of-1	26-yard field goal
4	4	0-of-1	23-yard field goal

ESPN's pregame broadcast noted that Mariota was completing about 41 percent of his passes in the red zone heading into Monday's game. Going 2-of-5 would put him on par for that percentage. 

For what it's worth, the Ducks ranked 32nd in red-zone touchdowns coming into the game. That's not exactly a number you'd expect to see next to an offense such as Oregon's. Though it's not entirely on Mariota, his numbers in that part of the field haven't helped. Bleacher Report's Matt Miller expressed continued support for Mariota, despite how he played in this matchup, pointing out the "tools are there":

Not every incompletion is the same, either. One pass to tight end Evan Baylis would have been a touchdown if Buckeyes cornerback Eli Apple didn't make a play to knock Baylis out of bounds. However, an earlier pass to Baylis on a shorter route was thrown inaccurately. It wasn't an easy pass—it was at an awkward angle with a defender in coverage—but it's one Mariota should have made. 

Anticipation and accuracy are things Mariota has to improve upon going forward, as noted by ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay (via John Glennon of The Tennessean): 

"

The one thing I don't see with him is the anticipation as a passer. It's just because in that offense, there's not a lot of opportunity to show that. The other day (against Florida State), he missed some throws he needed to make. You see a few of those every game. No one's perfect.

But Marcus misses a higher percentage of intermediate and vertical throws than you'd like to see ideally. And you combine that with the fact that (in Oregon's system) he doesn't have to anticipate and throw to a spot.

"

That's something a quarterback does have to possess in the red zone. When receivers are open, as they often are in Oregon's offense, it makes the passing numbers jump out. Rarely are receivers that wide-open in the NFL, and yards after the catch can easily contribute to gaudy passing stats.

Screens, short passes and the like are in many ways an extension of the running game that just so happens to go on Mariota's stat line. 

Take Mariota's biggest play of the night: a 70-yard touchdown to receiver Byron Marshall. The pass itself was about 30 yards to Marshall, and no one was within five yards of him. Mariota hit him in stride, but the rest of the play was all yards after the catch. 

Shorter passes tend to lead to higher completion rates, and more vertical passing attempts imply lower completion rates. For the year, Mariota completed around 68 percent of his passes. As Pro Football Focus' Steve Palazzolo tweeted previously, there's a reason Mariota's stat line looks as impressive as it does: 

Where that tends to catch up to quarterbacks is in the red zone, where the field shrinks. 

Better red-zone numbers from Mariota weren't going to stop Buckeyes running back Ezekiel Elliott from putting up 246 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. However, 28 points on four red-zone trips—or 29, as the Ducks often like to go for two—instead of 13 could have made a noticeable difference down the stretch.

Also, Ohio State's red-zone defense has been notoriously bad. The Buckeyes had allowed opponents to score touchdowns 73 percent of the time in red-zone appearances coming into the championship. Only North Texas and Texas Tech were worse. 

Mariota's career at Oregon won't be defined by one result or one part of his game, even if the "system quarterback" narrative gets started up again. He's easily a once-in-a-generation player for the program.

That said, one of his few weaknesses undoubtedly played a role in Oregon's most recent loss—even if it's difficult to find fault in Mariota's game. 

Ben Kercheval is a lead writer for college football. All stats courtesy of cfbstats.com.