Ranking the Top College Basketball Coach of the Year Candidates for 2014-15

The pack has separated.

Indeed, switches, collapses, surges and surprises always factor into the equation, but as a rule, you pretty much know who's good and who's not by January.

One can also discern which teams have improved over last season's incarnation, which ones are overachieving relative to preseason expectations and which ones look like they have the goods to win that piece of wood they hand out at the end of the season.

Success is too complex to ever be predicated on one single factor, but the above situations can't happen without great coaching. So, because we can now tell which teams are in said situations, what we can do is speculate wildly about who has the inside track to win the Naismith College Coach of the Year. Here are our top 10 candidates.

If you look at previous winners, you can see that the selection committee doesn't discriminate on pedigree. Winners cover the spectrum from mid-major upstart to power-conference thoroughbred. If your team had an excellent season on the national stage and coaching played some role, you have a fair shot. 

There is one trend to be mindful of, however: Since the first Naismith College Coach of the Year trophy was handed out in 1987, only two coaches—Mike Krzyzewski and John Calipari—have won the award more than once. And the shortest amount of time between the handing out of multiple awards was seven years, the time between Coach K's second trophy (in 1992) and third (1999). 

So a repeat awardee, while not impossible, is pretty unlikely. It also seems that coaches don't often win for, say, adding 10 wins to a team's record or unexpectedly finishing third in a conference. You need something dramatic, ideally on the national stage. 

So with all these things in mind, let us now identify and rank the favorites, based on the performances of their teams—both in and of itself and relative to expectations—and the coach's role in bringing that about.

Statistics courtesy of ESPN.com and NCAA.com.

Honorable Mentions

Isaac Brekken/Associated Press

Colorado State coach Larry Eustachy

These coaches have all done admirable jobs this year. Listed in no particular order:

• Bob Huggins, West Virginia
  
  
• Lon Kruger, Oklahoma
  
  
• Shaka Smart, VCU
  
  
• Fred Hoiberg, Iowa State
  
  
• Scott Drew, Baylor
  
  
• Mike Brey, Notre Dame
  
  
• Jeff Jones, Old Dominion
  
  
• Larry Eustachy, Colorado State

10. Sean Miller, Arizona

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

On his loaded Wildcats team—now 15-2 and ranked No. 10 nationally—Sean Miller's personality can be summed up by two players: Stanley Johnson and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.

Statistically speaking, they are led by superfrosh Johnson, who paces the Cats with 14.4 points and 6.7 rebounds per contest.

Johnson is very good and getting better (especially on defense, Miller's calling card), but he's not doing so under the wing of a coddler. If Miller offers this kind of honesty in the media (and before the season even starts, no less), imagine what practice is like.

It's actually a testament to his appeal that Johnson himself seems to understand and seek Miller's rough teaching approach, as he told reporters:

"He’s a killer. He’s tenacious. …The things I need to work on, he’s good at. My weaknesses are his strengths and I think he can motivate me on and off the court."

Even so, Johnson's offensive output remains a little inconsistent (seven points in a disappointing loss to Oregon State, for example, followed by 22 in the next game against Colorado). 

By contrast, the real key to the Wildcats—and the best straight representation of Miller—is Rondae Hollis-Jefferson. Recently inserted back into the starting lineup, his minutes are on the upswing—he topped 30 minutes per game in consecutive contests for the first time since late November. 

And while he has nice stats, he excels best at the old intangibles—defense, fighting for loose balls and helping his team win. That ethos, blended with the gaudiness of a big-time college program, is what Hollis-Jefferson and Johnson bring, and it encapsulates the balance that Miller has been able to strike.

9. Jay Wright, Villanova

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Jay Wright's Villanova tenure has been something of a roller coaster ride. The biggest dip came between 2011-12 and 2012-13, when the Wildcats went a combined 33-33 and 0-1 in the Big Dance. 

So coming into last season, Wright's seat was a little warm. He and his club responded by going 29-5 and reaching the second round of the tournament proper.

Pretty much every meaningful player from last season has returned, and they picked up where they left off and then some, as the Wildcats are currently 16-1 and atop the Big East.

Drawbacks? Well, this isn't your father's Big East, for one. All but two of the teams have five or more losses.

Still, No. 5 Villanova looks strong behind a balanced rotation that sees five players average 9.8 or more points per contest.

8. Rick Pitino, Louisville

Garry Jones/Associated Press

Rick Pitino's teams are always going to play well. We know that. But with leading scorer Russ Smith departing the team, Pitino had more of an uphill battle than usual.

So, he went about his battle. It was a minor miracle he got Montrezl Harrell to return, and that move is paying dividends, as Harrell is now one of the nation's best players. Alongside the big man, Terry Rozier has improved to help carry the scoring load. Next man up, as they say. If you'll forgive the technical parlance, that's a coaching thing.

And as with all Pitino teams, it's happening on both sides of the ball. Pitino's signature sterling team defense is out in force this season, with the No. 6 Cardinals ranked fifth nationally in steals with 10.2 per game and 17th nationally in points allowed with 56.9 a contest.

We'll have another big piece of Pitino's case on Saturday, when Harrell and the boys face off with Jahlil Okafor and the very dangerous cornered animal that is Duke.

And if Pitino can win the award, it would be a great story; he's never won it before.

7. Mike Krzyzewski, Duke

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

Duke is in the midst of a bit of a swoon, as the Blue Devils lost to NC State and then at home to Miami. That predicated a drop of two whole spots in the national poll, from No. 2 down to No. 4. Abandon all hope, ye who enter here!

Maybe not. Yes, this might indicate the Blue Devils are not quite the inevitable Kentucky foil they were made out to be. But the two losses also are the exception to the rule.

Mike Krzyzewski doesn't need anyone to argue his merits for him. His ability to motivate players or tailor his game plan to their styles and tendencies speaks for itself.

And Jahlil Okafor's still there, right? Then Coach K still has a full cupboard, not to mention a mind that has forgotten more basketball than you and I combined will ever know.

As always, with Coach K in its corner, Duke will be right there, in the ACC and beyond.

6. Mark Turgeon, Maryland

Heather Coit/Associated Press

Entering their first season of Big Ten play, the Terps were predicted to finish eighth in the conference. 

Right now, they're tied with Wisconsin for the top spot, thanks to a 4-1 mark in conference play (both teams also are 16-2 overall). 

What makes this more remarkable is that Mark Turgeon is leading a depleted band. Several offseason transfers left the Terps with no proven point guard and a wafer-thin frontcourt. To fix the former, enter Melo Trimble, the dynamic freshman who has played himself onto the Wooden Award Watch List. For the latter, they've used a committee approach and a lot of small ball, focusing on shooting, passing and penetration rather than any consistent post game.

And when the team lost its leader, Dez Wells, for seven games because of an injury, no one panicked. The team went 6-1 on that stretch, and it wasn't all cupcakes, either, given that it beat Oklahoma State (and played still-undefeated Virginia close) during that segment of the schedule. 

Turgeon has taken his share of slings and arrows since coming to College Park, but a Big Dance ticket can be a soothing salve, and Turgeon seems poised for his first Big Dance run with the Terps.

5. Bo Ryan, Wisconsin

Andy Manis/Associated Press

Call it "extreme defense."

Several teams among this season's elite get the job down with flamboyantly low levels of opponent scoring.

People who play Kentucky can't get within 10 feet of the basket without being swarmed by a Fangorn Forest of 7-footers. Virginia held two teams under 30 (sorry, Rutgers and Harvard). Utah, Arizona, TCU and plenty of others are harder to score against than ever.

And there, in the thick of it all, are Bo Ryan's Wisconsin Badgers. Or, as I like to call them, the OGs of extreme defense.

It's not that it's an overly complicated system. The Ryan Way is found in the little things: sharp passing, limiting turnovers (Wisconsin tops the nation there with only 8.3 giveaways per game), working for the open shot and hitting the shot you take.

Same with defense. It's not the ball-hawking turnover-starter of Louisville or VCU. They just pack it in, limit easy shots and get the rebound when they're done. 

But it works. Boy, does it ever. And it's a testament to its effectiveness that high-octane players like Frank Kaminsky, Nigel Hayes and Sam Dekker not only buy in, but stay bought. 

The team suffered a tough loss to Rutgers recently, but if the past is any educator, Wisconsin will be fine. Bo Ryan deserves more credit for the Badgers' constant success, which is mirrored in the constancy of his teams' play.

4. Mark Few, Gonzaga

Young Kwak/Associated Press

Mark Few so rarely gets mentioned alongside the other top coaches in the country. Maybe that's the way Gonzaga likes it, but still, I just don't get it.

The Bulldogs are ranked No. 3 in the nation, riding a 17-1 record behind the ninth-highest point output in the nation (82.6) and the second-best field-goal percentage (52.8 percent). 

Unless something crazy happens, the Bulldogs are on their way to their eighth consecutive 25-win season and 13th of the Few era. Not surprising when you consider that Few has never, ever missed the tournament as the head coach of Gonzaga.

But back to this season. From Kevin Pangos to Domantas Sabonis underneath, Gonzaga has talent at every position. Could this be Few's year to do something beyond just that glass slipper thing, which really doesn't make sense because it turned into a regular shoe like 10 years ago? It's entirely possible.

You think this guy doesn't understand what makes a good college basketball team great? Check this out, from an interview with CBSSports.com:

"

It would be a lot easier for this team to be the worst team we've ever had because we've had so many good teams. It would be really difficult for this team to be the greatest team we've ever had because we've had so many great ones. We have a really, really deep team so it's going to take a high level of sacrifice. Guys are going to have to give up shots and other things.

"

3. Larry Krystkowiak, Utah

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Under Larry Krystkowiak, the Utah Utes have steadily improved every season. 

The whole thing started rather…um, sluggishly. Krystkowiak entered the Utah program the same season that Utah entered the Pac-12. That 2011-12 campaign was not a good one, as the team finished a dreadful 6-25.

What happened to the Utes of Andre Miller? Of Michael Doleac? Or The Pale Rider himself, Keith Van Horn? It was nowhere to be found.

But then, there was a gleam. In 2012-13, the team went 15-18. Last season, it finished 21-12 and reached the NIT for the first time since 2001.

Behind Krystkowiak and senior leader Delon Wright, the Utes are 14-2 and No. 8 in the country. They rank eighth nationally in scoring defense, a mirror of their no-nonsense head coach. And barring some kind of calamity, they will return to the Big Dance following a six-year hiatus.

Hard to think of a better turnaround than this one.

2. John Calipari, Kentucky

Garry Jones/Associated Press

John Calipari's true gift is in the recruiting. The program, if you will.

But Calipari deserves credit on the coaching end too. Could you juggle two starting lineups worth of talent and egos? I sure couldn't.

And he has his guys playing hard on both ends of the floor. They are second in the nation in points allowed (50.6), first in blocks (8.3) per game and fifth in rebounding (42.4). All part and parcel of having essentially four 7-footers in your rotation, but when you have defense like that, the results speak for themselves as does the offense.

The team is not just talented, though. It's calm, it's clutch, it shares the ball, it works hard at all times, and there's a very legitimate chance that it runs the entire table this season. I'd say the coach has something to do with that.

1. Tony Bennett, Virginia

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I mentioned before that UVA has held two different opponents under 30 points this season. That's not for a half. That's for the full game. It's like the Connecticut women's basketball team.

And Tony Bennett is the unquestioned mastermind behind that dominance.

Thanks goes to Bennett's pack-line defense (which was invented by Bennett's father, Dick). It's more than a buzzy phrase; it's the new look in extreme defense. Other great defenses rely on physicality and aggression. With referees calling more rules for bumping, hand-checking and the like, it stands to reason that those bad boy-style schemes are becoming less sustainable all the time. 

The pack line is different, relying on position and stance. And it's working to a tee: The Cavs rank in the top 10 in points allowed (50.4, first in the nation), field-goal percentage defense (33.8 percent) and defensive rebounds per game (28.1).

That's not to say they don't have great individual talent. Justin Anderson and Malcolm Brogdon are a testament to that. But that says plenty about Bennett, too. Virginia was a pretty moribund program before he came on. In his first season in 2009-2010, the team finished 15-16. Last season, it was 30-7. And this year, as you know, it's a perfect 16-0 thus far.

Bennett has actually taken home this hardware before, back in 2007, when he helmed Washington State. But given that Virginia was far from a blue blood when he took over and led this resurgence behind that sinister pack-line defense, you have to think he's the favorite for Coach of the Year, especially as his Cavaliers are favorites for their first Final Four since 1984.

Gary Parrish of CBSSports.com recently summed it up pretty nicely:

"

Virginia is more of a developed winner than a naturally gifted champion, more Rocky than Apollo. The Cavaliers might not be a great team in the traditional sense. But they have the ability to play great. And they do way more often than not.

"