Knee-Jerk Reactions to the Start of College Basketball Conference Play

Nothing screams "early January college hoops" quite like knee-jerk reactions to the first week of conference play.

We all do it.

It only takes one big upset and we're suddenly asking if the once-maligned program is now turning things around or whether the once-dominant program is headed for a prolonged losing skid. Either that or one convincing win leaves us asking whether that team could win the conference or even go without a loss in conference play.

A few examples of questions we'll address:

Will Wichita State go undefeated in Missouri Valley play for a second consecutive year?

Will TCU go winless in Big 12 play for a second consecutive year?

Is Utah a national title contender?

For each of the 11 likely multibid conferences, we've come up with a knee-jerk reaction and provided an argument both for and against its legitimacy. Try to keep your blood from boiling in response to some of these slightly ridiculous but realistic claims.

American: Full-Strength Temple a Lock for NCAA Tournament

Fred Beckham/Associated Press

The Optimist Says

Go ahead and forget about the Temple team that we saw for the first five weeks of the season.

Blowout losses to Duke and Villanova? Scoring 40 points against American University? Losing to a Saint Joseph's team that currently has a 6-7 record?

Those are all things of the past now that Jesse Morgan and Devin Coleman are in action.

Since getting those two guys eligible on Dec. 18 and finally boasting its full rotation, Temple is 6-0 with a road win over the defending national champions and a ridiculous 25-point thrashing of Kansas. Morgan is averaging 14.0 points per game and has been the second three-point weapon the Owls have been desperately lacking.

The AAC has been searching for its torchbearer all season long.

Time to call off the search.

The Pessimist Says

That was a very nice win over Kansas, but let's pump the brakes.

The Owls needed overtime to win a game against Connecticut in which Ryan Boatright scored two points and played sparingly with a deep thigh bruise. In their other two conference games, they won by single digits against a pair of teams—UCF and Tulane—that no rational person was projecting to finish in the top half of the conference before the season began.

Let's see how they fare in back-to-back games against SMU and Cincinnati before handing Temple the AAC crown.

Atlantic 10: Saint Louis Will Go from First to Last in One Season

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The Pessimist Says

There's roster turnover and then there's what happened at Saint Louis this summer.

Of the six leading scorers for the Billikens in 2013-14, Austin McBroom was the only one that didn't run out of years of eligibility—and he was only the fifth-highest scorer at 7.3 points per game. Even the seventh-leading scorer hasn't appeared in a game yet this season after Grandy Glaze suffered a separated shoulder in October.

Maybe a team like Kansas or Kentucky can get away with that type of turnover by actually reloading with a whole new class of studs, but Saint Louis doesn't have that luxury. As a result, the Billikens are without key players.

Jim Crews has essentially treated the entire season as a tryout for the starting lineup. There are 12 Saint Louis players averaging at least 10 minutes per game, but it isn't working. The Billikens are 8-7 without a single win against the RPI Top 200.

They challenged George Washington pretty well—thanks to a career day from Milik Yarbrough—but they're 0-2 and don't even get to play a home game against Fordham. If they win more than three A-10 games, it would be a miracle.

The Optimist Says

The roster turnover is why the Billikens have struggled thus far, but it's no reason to assume they'll continue to falter.

There's no denying that they hit rock bottom in the first month of the season. Suffering a home loss to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and a 25-point neutral court loss to Mississippi State in the same week is pretty bad for any team, let alone the reigning A-10 champions.

But they're getting better and figuring out who their go-to guys are. McBroom is shooting lights-out from beyond the arc. Yarbrough is averaging 14.0 points per game since becoming a starter, and Villanova transfer Achraf Yacoubou has scored in double figures in five of his last six games.

They're certainly not going to bounce back and win the league again, but it's more than a little difficult to believe this team would finish in last place in a 14-team conference that might be lucky to send three teams to the NCAA tournament.

ACC: Wake Forest Is the Best 0-3 Team in the Country

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The Optimist Says

With five minutes remaining, Wake Forest held a 69-68 lead over Louisville. Devin Thomas absolutely abused the big men for the Cardinals, finishing the night with 31 points and 11 rebounds. But he also missed eight free-throw attempts—"leading" the Demon Deacons to a total 15 failed freebies in the game—which allowed Louisville to survive and advance.

With five minutes remaining, Wake Forest held a 57-55 lead over Duke. Thomas had another outstanding game with 24 points, five rebounds, four steals and three assists. However, he didn't have much help, and Duke caught fire at the right time, shooting 5-of-5 from the field and 7-of-8 from the free-throw line over those final 300 seconds to prevail.

Of their close losses, Demon Deacons junior Codi Miller-McIntyre said:

"

We fought and we fought, and we even took the lead at one point. But one of our team mottos is "Start fast and finish strong," and in the last four minutes we have to come out with the intensity that we come out with in the first four minutes. Once we start doing that, playing a legit-40 minutes, we'll win games like this.

"

Find us another team that has fought tooth and nail with Top 10 teams in back-to-back games.

Go ahead. We'll wait.

The Pessimist Says

Where was all this talk when Wake Forest was losing a home game to Delaware State and getting stomped by Arkansas?

Winning on the road in the first week of the conference season is always difficult. In fact, through 16 ACC games, Wake Forest is responsible for two of the three largest margins of defeat at home—Clemson's 24-point loss to North Carolina takes the cake by a mile.

It's hardly an ACC thing, either. Entering play Thursday, the only Big Ten game this season in which the road team won by 10 or more points was Wisconsin's 81-58 rout of Northwestern. Through 12 Pac-12 games, the home team is 11-1 with the one exception to the rule being California's inexplicable home loss to Washington State.

Play well on the road against Syracuse on Tuesday and maybe we'll start thinking about whether Wake Forest could wreak some havoc in the ACC tournament. Close losses at home don't prove anything.

Big 12: TCU Won 13 Straight but Will Now Lose 18 in a Row

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The Pessimist Says

Congratulations on conning the country by briefly sneaking into the AP Top 25 for avoiding any horrible losses to horrible teams during the nonconference portion of the season.

The win over Ole Miss in TCU's only true road game looks a lot better now that the Rebels have given Kentucky its biggest scare of the season, but that's a schizophrenic team that also lost home games to Charleston Southern and Western Kentucky.

If the Horned Frogs think that winning home games over the likes of Grambling State, Tennessee State and Mississippi Valley State prepared them for what they'll face in the Big 12, they're out of their minds.

They have lost 22 consecutive games against Big 12 teams dating back to the 2013 conference tournament. Until they actually win a conference game, there's no good reason to believe that they can.

The Optimist Says

Come on, now.

TCU might not/probably won't make the NCAA tournament, but this team is much better than last year.

The Horned Frogs played an equally abysmal nonconference schedule in 2013-14. They lost a home game to Longwood, nearly lost a home game to Abilene Christian and scraped out a three-point win over D-II Alaska-Anchorage. We didn't see anything close to that this November or December.

Plus, they've played tough in their first two Big 12 games against West Virginia and Kansas State. They lost those games by a combined 16 points but left 23 points at the free-throw line while their best rebounders and shot-blockers were saddled with all sorts of foul trouble.

TCU might not win road games against Kansas, Oklahoma or Texas, but this team will put up a good fight in every game. Plus, the Horned Frogs do play home games against Kansas State and Texas Tech in late February.

Big East: This Is Finally DePaul's Season to Compete

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The Optimist Says

That 15-point win over Stanford doesn't look so crazy now, does it?

Billy Garrett Jr. had his issues over the first six weeks of the season, but the sophomore point guard is putting it all together in conference play. Through three Big East games, he is averaging 14.3 points and 5.7 assists.

Garrett is still committing 2.3 turnovers per game, but the team has improved considerably in that category. Prior to the start of conference play, DePaul was committing 15.2 turnovers per game, but that number has dropped to 11.0 against Big East opponents.

Because of that improved ability to avoid wasted possessions, the Blue Demons have been able to turn four-possession losses into one-possession wins. As long as they can continue to avoid the turnover bug, they'll have a chance to turn this 3-0 start into 11 or 12 conference wins.

That might not equate to a tournament bid because of all the nonconference losses, but it would be pretty darn impressive considering DePaul has a combined total of 10 Big East wins over the past six seasons.

The Pessimist Says

Be serious.

DePaul has played three of the six easiest Big East games on its schedule and wasn't exactly a wrecking ball in any of them.

The three-point home win over Xavier was impressive—almost as impressive as the win against Stanford—but how can you possibly look at what the Blue Demons did in December and argue that this is sustainable growth?

In the process of losing six straight games, they were blown out by Ohio and Oregon State before losing to a dreadful Loyola Marymount team—the Lions are winless since Thanksgiving aside from that win over DePaul.

In the narrow win over Marquette, the Golden Eagles shot 3-of-23 from three-point range. In the wins over Xavier and Creighton, DePaul shot 21-of-42 from three-point range, despite shooting 35.3 percent from downtown prior to those games.

The arc has been kind thus far in Big East play, but this is a team that doesn't defend well, commits too many turnovers and routinely gets out-rebounded. The Blue Demons are headed for one heck of a wake-up call over the course of their next 12 games.

Big Ten: Minnesota Will Miss the NCAA Tournament

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The Pessimist Says

Chances at big wins are bizarrely few and far between this year in the Big Ten, and Minnesota already blew a few of those chances in dropping to 0-3 to start the conference season.

Not only did the Golden Gophers lose at Purdue, but they subsequently lost at Maryland before falling at home in overtime to Ohio State—the only games they will play during the regular season against either the Terrapins or the Buckeyes.

They do still have two games against Wisconsin at the end of the season, two games against Iowa and road games against Michigan, Michigan State and Indiana. Winning three or four of those games would be a nice step in the right direction, but a nonconference strength of schedule that ranks 244th means we really need to see something promising in conference.

Thus far, that certainly hasn't been the case.

The Optimist Says

Are you kidding me? It's early January! There are still two months until the conference tournament even begins!

Remember last year when Michigan was 6-4 without any quality wins and we started wondering if the Wolverines might miss the tournament? Pretty sure they earned a No. 2 seed, didn't they?

Or what about Connecticut losing its first two AAC games last season to Houston (Houston!!) and SMU before flipping the switch and winning the national championship?

Things might not look great right now, but the Golden Gophers could easily win their next eight games and suddenly find themselves in the "Who's the second-best team in the Big Ten?" debate that will probably never properly be answered.

Missouri Valley: Wichita State Will Run the Table Again

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The Optimist Says

A much-improved Northern Iowa and a somewhat improved Evansville make for a stronger Missouri Valley Conference than yesteryear, but the gap between Wichita State and the rest of the conference was so wide in 2013-14 that there's still no reason to believe the Shockers will lose a game this season.

Through three MVC games, they have been extremely efficient. They have yet to commit 10 turnovers in any of them. They're averaging 1.12 points per possession and holding opponents to a ratio of 0.92.

Fred VanVleet has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 3.4 on the season and hasn't committed more than three turnovers in any game. He was the key to the team that entered the 2014 NCAA tournament with an undefeated record, and he's the rock that will keep the Shockers from being shocked in conference play.

The Pessimist Says

Wichita State has one reliable scorer (Ron Baker) and one pretty good interior player (Darius Carter).

That's it.

Cleanthony Early and Chadrack Lufile are gone, so there's no plan B if Baker and Carter fail to combine for 28 points and 10 rebounds on any given night. Tekele Cotton has been wildly inconsistent, and VanVleet is only as good as the company he keeps. If VanVleet is attempting more than 10 shots in a game, something has likely gone wrong.

At some point in the next two months, someone is going to stick like glue to Baker and frustrate him into a bad night. Eventually, Carter is either going to get bullied in the paint or get himself into foul trouble. Maybe both of those things happen in the same game and Wichita State gets blown out of the gym.

Just ask Georgia State how easy it is to rely on two players to carry the load every night. Do you really think Texas State is any better than any of the teams Wichita State will face the rest of the way?

Mountain West: UNLV's Win over Arizona Was a Total Fluke

Eric Jamison/Associated Press

The Pessimist Says

The Rebels have two quality wins: a seven-point win over Temple when the Owls were at significantly less than full strength and the 71-67 win over Arizona two nights before Christmas.

Outside of that, they're 0-4 vs. RPI Top 100 teams, with three of those losses coming by double figures.

Wednesday night, though, was the piece de resistance on their "would be lucky to get an invitation to the NIT" resume, losing a home game to a Nevada team that hadn't beaten an opponent in the RPI Top 240 since the opening weekend of the season.

Christian Wood (24 points and 10 rebounds) played extremely well in the upset over Arizona, but that win only happened because everyone other than T.J. McConnell failed to show up for the Wildcats. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson fouled out early. Stanley Johnson committed seven turnovers. Brandon Ashley played nothing resembling his normal level of intensity on defense.

The Rebels got lucky that night, but they're far too reliant on first- and second-year players to ever reach their full potential.

Said head coach Dave Rice after Wednesday's loss, "For us to be successful in this league, we're going to have to get tougher, and we're going to have to get tougher in a hurry."

The Optimist Says

You can't just throw out a win over a program like Arizona because the Wildcats struggled. And it's not as if UNLV hasn't shown a ton of promise in some of its losses.

The Rebels were up four at the half at Kansas before the Jayhawks caught fire. They ran out to a 21-6 lead at Arizona State before evidently forgetting how to play basketball and losing by 22. They lost by 13 to Utah, but that's a better fight than anyone else has given the Utes in the past few weeks.

Give it time. They might not make the tournament this year, but that signature win wasn't a fluke. It was a sign of things to come.

Pac-12: Utah Can Win the National Championship

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The Optimist Says

Have you watched these guys lately?

Over the past week—while Kentucky flirted with a loss to Ole Miss and Duke was nearly upset by Wake Forest—the Utes have beaten USC, UCLA and Colorado by an average margin of 27 points.

USC and Colorado can now each thank Utah for its largest margin of defeat for the season, and it's only because Kentucky beat UCLA by 39 that the Bruins can't say the same after their 32-point loss to the Utes.

Those teams haven't exactly been the class of the Pac-12 this season, but they're still Pac-12 teams, and Utah is making them look like they belong in the SWAC.

The big test comes next Saturday at Arizona, but even the Wildcats should be beaten with the way Utah is playing right now.

We're not saying the Utes should or will win the NCAA tournament, but they absolutely can. You wouldn't think it from the lack of national attention they're getting.

The Pessimist Says

The Pac-12 is arguably the worst of the power conferences. Dominating home games against its dregs doesn't prove much of anything. UCLA and Colorado are now a combined 2-11 away from home, with the two wins coming on neutral courts against UAB and DePaul. A ranked team should beat the tar out of them.

That said, those were impressive wins. Utah belongs at least in the Top 20 and probably in the Top 10.

Saying the Utes can win the national championship, though? In a season where the top eight teams are so clearly better than the rest of the country?

If things play to form—pause for raucous laughter—Utah would have to go through three of these eight teams in the Elite Eight, Final Four and championship game: Kentucky, Duke, Virginia, Wisconsin, Louisville, Gonzaga, Arizona and Villanova.

If you truly believe the Utes can pull that off, then we've got a whole big box of Greg Oden rookie cards you might be interested in purchasing.

SEC: Kentucky Will Not Go Undefeated

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The Pessimist Says

Ole Miss?

Really?

Kentucky was taken to overtime—at Rupp Arena, no less—by the team that couldn't win home games against Charleston Southern or Western Kentucky?

The greatest defense in college basketball history gave up 86 points to a team that scored 54 against TCU?

Never mind the probabilities that show there's at least an 80 percent chance that Kentucky will lose one of its next 17 games. The Wildcats made it pretty clear Tuesday that they could potentially be beaten by anyone on any night.

It's inevitable that they will either buy too far into their own hype or become too overwhelmed by the constant national pressure of going undefeated. And the next time they struggle to stay focused on the court, it'll either be in a tougher environment or against a tougher opponent—or both.

The Optimist Says

As long as there's a zero in the loss column, I believe it will stay there.

Every good team has bad games, but the great ones find a way to persevere and win regardless. Ole Miss was on fire, and Kentucky caught some of those flames in hitting 11 of 20 three-pointers. Every time the Rebels hit a big shot, the Wildcats responded with one of their own.

According to KenPom.com (subscription required), Kentucky's chance of winning the game never even dropped below 55 percent. Even when Ole Miss grabbed a rebound with 42 seconds left and a one-point lead, the Wildcats were still the favorites.

No one is going to fluke their way into a win over the Wildcats. They're like a villain in a thriller movie. They may show signs of weakness. You may even think they're dead. But if you don't cut off their proverbial head, they'll get you in the end. And there's not a team in the SEC capable of that type of dominance.

They might lose in the tournament, but they'll be 34-0 at the start of it.

West Coast: Saint Mary's Could Win Regular-Season Title

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The Optimist Says

Everyone raves over Gonzaga's key transfers, Kyle Wiltjer and Byron Wesley.

Did you know, though, that Saint Mary's also has some crucial players formerly from major conference teams? In fact, three of the current starters for the Gaels were playing for Pac-12 teams not that long ago.

Starting shooting guard Aaron Bright (Stanford) and starting power forward Desmond Simmons (Washington) were graduate transfers this past summer.

They weren't exactly benchwarmers either. Simmons had 166 points and 220 rebounds as a sophomore, while Bright had 434 points and 135 assists in his second year at Stanford. But they both had decreased roles in 2013-14 and decided to go to a school where they would be more appreciated.

Small forward Garrett Jackson has started only a couple of games and has been with the team for a couple of seasons, but he played his first two years at USC before joining the Gaels.

Throw in freshman point guard Emmett Naar and seniors Brad Waldow and Kerry Carter, and Saint Mary's has itself a nice little rotation that can absolutely go to war in the WCC.

The Gaels are already 4-0 and have won each of their conference games by at least nine points. Doubt at your own risk, but you'll be buying in when they beat BYU next Saturday and challenge Gonzaga on the road the following Thursday.

The Pessimist Says

Should I just say "Gonzaga" 100 times, or are you looking for a more coherent argument?

The Zags have won 13 of the last 14 WCC regular-season titles and 10 of those 14 conference tournaments for good measure. And this is without a doubt the best team that Mark Few has ever assembled in Spokane.

Saint Mary's is good, but the Gaels would need to win at least one game against Gonzaga to claim the WCC crown. The Bulldogs have already beaten up on UCLA and Washington State, and they nearly won a road game against Arizona.

If current Pac-12 teams can't beat them, how is a hodgepodge of Pac-12 castoffs going to pull it off?

Kerry Miller covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @kerrancejames.