UNC Basketball: Preview and Prediction for Showdown with Louisville

After starting their ACC home slate with a disappointing one-point loss to Notre Dame, the North Carolina Tar Heels will look to rebound Saturday against Louisville. 

Despite falling to the Fighting Irish at the Smith Center, North Carolina did show some signs of promise against one of the four other ranked teams in the ACC.

The Tar Heels now have an opportunity to make a massive statement against the fifth-ranked Cardinals on their home floor in their third conference game of the season. 

In order to pull off the big win in front of the home crowd, North Carolina will have to execute its game plan to perfection.

Below is a preview of some of the key issues surrounding Saturday's ACC clash in Chapel Hill.

Get Marcus Paige in a Rhythm Early 

Although he has averaged a team-high 13.5 points per game this season, Marcus Paige hasn't had an eye-catching game to put him back on the national radar. 

The junior guard has struggled all season from the field, as he has put up a 36.8 field-goal percentage in 15 games.

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With Paige in need of a breakout performance to kick-start his ACC campaign, the Tar Heels must feed their playmaker early and often Saturday afternoon. 

If he can drain a few shots from beyond the arc throughout the first half, his momentum could easily carry into the second half. 

With a red-hot Paige in hand, the Tar Heels would carry the potential to finish off the Cardinals early in the second half before things get too worrisome. 

Find a Way to Contain Montrezl Harrell

For the Tar Heels to have success on the defensive side of the ball, they must shut down the powerful paint presence that is Montrezl Harrell. Just like Paige in the backcourt, Harrell has the potential to change the outcome of any game by himself. 

The powerful junior forward enters the clash against North Carolina with an average of 16.7 points and 9.5 rebounds per game. He is also shooting 60 percent from the field. 

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The obvious player who will be tasked with stopping Harrell is Kennedy Meeks, but the Tar Heels will need more than one guy to stick to Harrell during the game. 

If the likes of Justin Jackson and Brice Johnson can chip in at times on defense, North Carolina could be able to shut down Harrell for long stretches of the game. 

The one thing the Tar Heels must avoid Saturday is foul trouble in the paint. Meeks was limited to 17 minutes against Notre Dame because of his issues down low. If he picks up two fouls early, containing Harrell may turn into a nightmare of a job. 

Improve the Shooting from the Field 

North Carolina enters the game versus Louisville with some impressive numbers, but the one category in which it is struggling a bit is field-goal percentage. 

The Tar Heels, who are 16th in scoring, second in rebounding and eighth in assists, rank 97th in the nation in shooting at 45.3 percent. 

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That number was brought down by the brutal 36.9 percent they shot Monday night at the Smith Center. Some of the standout numbers from the 71-70 loss to Notre Dame were Paige's 6-of-17 day and Johnson's 3-of-11 outing. 

In their five games against ranked opposition, the Tar Heels have failed to shoot better than 45.1 percent. Luckily for Roy Williams and Co., only Kentucky outshot them in the games in which they produced a 3-2 record. 

Not all ranked teams will shoot a brutal 34.7 percent from the field like Ohio State or a rough 32.8 percent like Florida, which is why North Carolina needs to make more shots in big games. 

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If the Tar Heels can find a way to shoot over 50 percent against one of the regular-season title contenders in the ACC, they should be able to avoid a 1-2 start in conference play. 

Prediction

Starting 1-2 in league play is something no team with NCAA tournament aspirations wants to do, but that may be the reality in Chapel Hill after Saturday. 

Louisville presents a massive challenge for the Tar Heels, especially with Harrell down low. This game will be a close one, but expect the Cardinals to earn a tight win at the Smith Center.

Louisville 65, North Carolina 57.

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90. 

All statistics obtained from ESPN.com.