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Matchups to Watch for NFL Divisional Weekend

Nick KostosJan 8, 2015

The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is rapidly approaching. Once Sunday night rolls around, we'll know the final four teams in contention to win the Super Bowl.

But in order for those franchises to move on to championship Sunday, they'll need to triumph this weekend. And there are a number of critical matchups in each game this round that could (and will) determine which clubs survive and advance.

In this slideshow, we've singled out two matchups per game—one for each team—that will be vital to that squad's success. We've also assigned a prediction for how that specific matchup will turn out.

Here are the matchups to watch for the NFL Divisional Round Weekend.

Patriots Pass-Rusher Chandler Jones vs. Ravens Offensive Line

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The Baltimore Ravens are surely holding their collective breath and hoping that star left tackle Eugene Monroe can return to the lineup for Saturday's divisional-round matchup in New England.

Monroe, who missed the Wild Card Game against Pittsburgh, has been limited in practice but his progress has left the Ravens optimistic that he could return against New England (h/t Aaron Wilson of The Baltimore Sun). The Ravens will need Monroe to help keep the pocket clean for quarterback Joe Flacco, as Monroe's replacement, rookie James Hurst, allowed six hurries in the Steelers game. That won't be good enough to beat New England.

In order for the Patriots to pressure Flacco, they'll need pass-rusher Chandler Jones to get the job done. While Jones has been excellent in the regular season over the course of his career (23.5 sacks in 37 games played), he has yet to earn a sack in the postseason.

Jones isn't focused on his own statistics, telling Jeff Howe of the Boston Herald: "I try not to get into a lot of individual stats in the postseason. More like how many postseason wins do I have? Our biggest thing is just winning. At this time, it doesn’t matter if I get no sacks in this postseason. If we win, that’s our biggest goal.”

That's all fine and dandy, but if the Patriots are going to win, they'll need Jones to pressure Flacco and disrupt the Baltimore offense. And whether the Ravens trot out Monroe or Hurst to protect Flacco's blind side, that matchup—Jones coming off the edge—will certainly be one to monitor closely.

Prediction: Jones will sack Flacco at least once.

Ravens LB Terrell Suggs vs. Patriots OT Nate Solder

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Over the years, there have been few personal rivalries in the NFL that have been as competitive (and colorful) as New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady vs. Baltimore Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs.

And lucky enough for us, the two will renew acquaintances this Saturday at Foxborough when the Patriots host the Ravens in the postseason for the fourth time since 2009.

For the Patriots, protecting Brady is of utmost importance. It's been shown that the way to stymie New England's offense is to harass Brady and get him off his game. Along with fellow pass-rushing demon Elvis Dumervil, Suggs is the Raven who can achieve that goal and help Baltimore pull off the upset.

Brady knows just how good Suggs is, telling Mike Reiss of ESPN.com:

"

(Suggs is) phenomenal. He’s in his 12th year and looks like it’s his third year out there. He’s the leader of that defense. He makes great plays. I think that there is a play that’s called and then what he actually does. Even though he has a certain responsibility, if he sniffs it out, he takes a shot and goes for it. You may have contain, but he may rip it inside and try to make a play in the backfield. He’s just a smart player. We’ve played against him a bunch of times. He takes away a lot of stuff. I have a lot of respect for his ability to play the game at a high level. 

"

For Brady—one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time—to lavish an opposing a defender with plaudits like that is high praise indeed, and speaks to the need to make sure Suggs is blocked at all costs.

The primary roadblock for Suggs on his quest to disrupt Brady will be left tackle Nate Solder. Solder played well down the stretch of the season after a rocky start, and will have to be at his best if he's to keep the man known as "T-Sizzle" away from his star signal-caller.

Prediction: Suggs will sack Brady at least once as the Ravens keep the game close.

Panthers QB Cam Newton vs. Seahawks Secondary

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The Carolina Panthers are the biggest underdogs of the NFL weekend, as Vegas has installed them as 10.5-point underdogs (per OddsShark) for Saturday's tilt in Seattle against the defending Super Bowl champion Seahawks.

And if the Panthers are to have any chance of victory, they'll need a near-flawless game from their star quarterback, Cam Newton.

In three career games against the Seahawks and their outstanding secondary (the "Legion of Boom"), Newton has passed for only 437 total yards and his offenses have scored only 28 total points. With numbers like those, it should surprise no one to read that the Panthers are 0-3 in those games against Seattle.

Last Saturday against the Cardinals, Newton wasn't terrible—but he wasn't particularly good either, completing 18 of 32 passes for 198 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Newton didn't look all that sharp, but it didn't matter because Arizona's offense nearly set offensive football back to the stone ages.

If Newton plays like that on Saturday against cornerback Richard Sherman, safety Earl Thomas and the rest of the Seahawks secondary, the Panthers will have zero chance of winning. Newton simply must elevate his level of play and author an elite performance if the Panthers are going to keep the game close and potentially pull off the upset.

Prediction: Newton will play another middling game against Seattle's outstanding defense, leading to a Seahawks victory.

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Seahawks RB Marshawn Lynch vs. Panthers LBs Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis

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The Carolina Panthers run defense took a major hit on Wednesday when it was announced that excellent second-year defensive tackle Star Lotulelei will miss Saturday's game against the Seahawks with a broken foot.

That news is devastating to Carolina's front line, which faces an extremely tough task on Saturday against physical Seahawks running back Marshawn Lynch.

Lynch had a marvelous regular season, rushing for 4.7 yards per carry, and owns a career playoff average of 4.8 yards per carry—he obviously helped carry Seattle to a Super Bowl title last season. Along with quarterback Russell Wilson, Lynch is the fulcrum of the Seattle offense. While his backups (Robert Turbin and Christine Michael) have seen more time this year, there's little doubt that the Seahawks will ride or die with Lynch.

Without Lotulelei in the lineup, the onus will fall heavily on Panthers linebackers Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis to get the job done. Both Kuechly and Davis were phenomenal in last week's win over Arizona, and will need similar performances to keep the Panthers in the game.

If Seattle can run the ball at will and Lynch sets an early physical tone, it's going to be tough for the Panthers to hang in the game. But if Kuechly, Davis and Co. can keep the man known as "Beast Mode" under wraps, Carolina could find itself in a dogfight as the game approaches a conclusion.

Prediction: Lynch will rush for at least 75 yards and a touchdown.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers vs. Cowboys Pass Rush

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The Dallas Cowboys are back in the divisional round of the postseason for the first time since 2009. In order to advance to their first NFC Championship Game since 1996, their directive is clear: Stop star Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers on Sunday.

Of course, that's much easier said than done, as Rodgers authored a tremendous regular-season campaign, tossing 38 touchdown passes against only five interceptions. The Packers were also ridiculously dominant in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field, accruing an 8-0 mark and scoring nearly 40 points per game (39.8) in the process.

While Dallas' defense overachieved this season, it doesn't appear to be much of a match for Rodgers and Green Bay's high-powered aerial assault. With weapons like running back Eddie Lacy and receivers Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb, the Packers are loaded on offense, so it's going to fall on Dallas' pass rush to get Rodgers out of rhythm.

Dallas finished with only 28 sacks in the regular season (28th in the NFL), but brought down Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford three times in Sunday's Wild Card Round win. If the Cowboys can continue that momentum, and pass-rushers like rookie end DeMarcus Lawrence and linebacker Anthony Spencer can generate pressure, Dallas has the ability to pull the upset.

It's worth noting that Dallas went 8-0 on the road this year, so it's certainly a case of the irresistible force meeting the immovable object. 

And if the Cowboys can't get in Rodgers' face, forget about it. The irresistible force (Green Bay) will roll by double digits.

Prediction: Rodgers is simply too good to be held down. He'll throw for over 300 yards and at least two touchdown passes.

Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray vs. Packers Run Defense

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For the Dallas Cowboys, their formula in attaining a 12-win regular season was simple: Control the clock with star running back DeMarco Murray, make enough plays on defense and give quarterback Tony Romo a shot to potentially win the game late if need be.

On Sunday in Green Bay, Dallas must accomplish the first facet of that plan in order to have any shot of beating the Packers. Simply put: If Murray can't find success on the ground, the Cowboys will have no shot of knocking off the Packers.

Luckily for the Cowboys, Murray has an excellent track record this year, having led the NFL in rushing with a staggering 1,845 yards. While he didn't truly get going last week against Detroit (19 carries for 75 yards), it's worth noting that the Lions possessed the NFL's top-ranked rush defense, while Green Bay's ranks just 23rd overall (allowing 4.3 yards per carry).

The Cowboys will need their offensive line to open up holes for Murray, allowing the physical back to churn out yardage and—more importantly—keep the ball away from Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

If the game is close in the waning moments, Cowboys fans should have confidence in Romo to get the job done when it matters most. But in order for Dallas to get to that point, it'll need a superlative performance from Murray.

Prediction: Murray will rush the ball 25-plus times for over 100 yards.

Colts WR T.Y. Hilton vs. Broncos CB Aqib Talib

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The matchup between Indianapolis Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton against Denver Broncos cornerback Aqib Talib is undoubtedly one of elite talent versus elite talent.

Hilton is the favorite target of Colts quarterback Andrew Luck, having hauled in 82 passes for 1,345 yards and seven touchdowns in the regular season. He's a burner with speed to spare, and crushed the Bengals last weekend to the tune of six catches for 103 yards. 

Meanwhile, Talib is coming off a fantastic year in which he led the Broncos with four interceptions (two returned for touchdowns) and earned a Pro Bowl berth. While Talib's batterymate, Chris Harris, also earned a Pro Bowl berth, it'll be Talib who is matched up primarily with Hilton, as Harris is often moved around depending on personnel and formation.

In theory, Denver's offense shouldn't have much of an issue putting up points on the Colts' defense. That means the onus will on Luck and Co. to match the Broncos score for score. If that's going to happen, Hilton must be a factor in the deep passing game.

How Hilton performs against Talib could go a long way in deciding the outcome of the game.

Prediction: Hilton will clear 100 yards receiving and reach the end zone, but that will be a product of Indianapolis needing to throw the ball to stay in the game, not necessarily an indication of the Colts dominating.

Broncos RB C.J. Anderson vs. Colts Run Defense

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Shh: Don't tell anyone, but down the stretch of the regular season, the Denver Broncos offense—led by future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning—evolved into a run-first unit spearheaded by second-year running back C.J. Anderson.

There's no doubting that Manning's play dipped a bit as the calendar turned to December, and the Broncos compensated by pounding the rock with the explosive and powerful Anderson. Anderson finished the season strong and ended the campaign with 849 yards rushing, an astounding feat when considering he started in only seven games.

In the final four games of the regular season, Anderson scored seven touchdowns. By comparison, Manning tossed only three touchdown passes against six interceptions over the season's final quarter. While it should surprise no one if Manning lights up the scoreboard on Sunday, it's a better bet to assume that Denver will try to pound Anderson into the heart of the Colts defense and keep the ball out of Andrew Luck's hands.

While the Colts rush defense was maligned during the season, it's actually performed well as of late, holding Bengals running back Jeremy Hill to only 3.6 yards per carry in last Sunday's victory. On the season, the Colts allowed 4.3 yards per carry and finished with the league's 18th-ranked run defense, so there is hope that they can slow down Anderson.

If the Colts can keep Anderson under wraps, they'll have a better shot of victory. But if Anderson gets going and opens up the passing game for Manning, forget about it—the Broncos will win by double digits.

Prediction: The Colts will hold Anderson under 100 yards rushing.

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