Ballon d'Or: 30 Candidates to Be Crowned World's Best for 2015
It is never too soon to start looking ahead. While the 2014 Ballon d'Or may only have been awarded on Monday, that just means that the race is already underway for the 2015 award.
The usual suspects (Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi) will surely expect to be in the mix once again for the primary individual prize in the sport, but there are plenty of other players who believe they have both the talent and the determination required to contend for the accolade.
The voting process has seemed to change in recent years, with tangible team success—at club and/or international level—perhaps no longer the priority it once was. Individual (often goalscoring) exploits now tend to attract greater attention from the various voters.
With no real international tournament of note to worry about in 2015 though (sorry, Copa America and Africa Cup of Nations supporters, but they are unlikely to resonate with voters), that is less of a concern. Club exploits are likely to be the primary criteria for any Ballon d'Or hopefuls looking to succeed Cristiano Ronaldo over the next 12 months.
Click on for some potential nominees for the 2015 award.
Unlikely to Be Nominated Again
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The provisional 23-man shortlist is the first aim of any player hoping for Ballon d'Or glory. The following players made the shortlist for the Ballon d'Or in one of the last three years but, for various reasons (either related to form, age or current club status), are unlikely to be back on the same list in 12 months' time.
Javier Mascherano (Barcelona/Argentina)
His recent nomination was on the strength of his World Cup performances with Argentina.
Thibaut Courtois (Chelsea/Belgium)
Undoubtedly one of the best in the world, but he's likely to be overlooked in favour of his outfield team-mates.
Robin van Persie (Manchester United/Netherlands)
Age seems to be catching up to him. His form and consistency are not what they once were.
Andrea Pirlo (Juventus/Italy)
He may not play enough over the year to be a realistic candidate in voters' eyes.
Radamel Falcao (Manchester United/Colombia)
Still needs to settle into new surroundings, which makes producing top form hard to expect.
Robert Lewandowski (Bayern Munich/Poland)
Bayern's all-round class means the Pole is likely to be overlooked unless his goalscoring record is astronomical.
Edinson Cavani (Paris Saint-Germain/Uruguay)
Will need to move out from the shadow of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, which might not happen this year.
Iker Casillas (Real Madrid/Spain)
Seems to be on the downward curve of his career, both for club and country.
Xabi Alonso (Bayern Munich/Spain)
Like Lewandowski, others in the Bayern team are surely more likely to catch the eye.
Mario Balotelli (Liverpool/Italy)
Shortlisted as recently as 2012, the Italian has found no form or consistency yet at Liverpool.
Outside Contenders
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Without wishing to spoil what is to come, it seems almost inevitable that familiar names will dominate the 2015 Ballon d'Or shortlist when it is announced at the end of the year. While an individual can elevate himself from virtual unknown to domestic star in one season, it takes years of improvement to go from being one of the best players in your league to a Ballon d'Or nominee.
Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo were both unsuccessful nominees for the Ballon d'Or before they first won the award. Here are a few (slightly speculative) suggestions of players who could play their way into contention this year, perhaps with an eye to contending more strongly for the prize later in their careers.
Raheem Sterling (Liverpool/England)
Brilliant young forward who is surely only a step or two away from joining the world's elite.
Hakan Calhanoglu (Bayer Leverkusen/Turkey)
The brilliantly talented attacking midfielder could catch the eye if he drives his side on a Champions League run.
Yacine Brahimi (Porto/Algeria)
Lack of African representation on Ballon d'Or shortlists has long been a problem; Brahimi is one candidate to change that.
Luiz Adriano (Shakhtar Donetsk/Brazil)
His Champions League goalscoring exploits will have him on a few radars already.
Marco Reus (Borussia Dortmund/Germany)
Injury robbed him of a shining moment in 2014, he will be hungry to prove a point this year.
Yannick Ferreira-Carrasco (AS Monaco/Belgium)
The winger with an eye for goal has a bright future, albeit perhaps a few years away from contending for the top award.
Isco (Real Madrid/Spain)
He ended 2014 in scintillating fashion. Now if he can somehow break into his manager's first-choice team…
Oscar (Chelsea/Brazil)
Other team-mates at Stamford Bridge are always likely to steal the limelight, but he has the talent to be among the world's best.
Arturo Vidal (Juventus/Chile)
He is supremely talented, but he seems to have relinquished his position as the main man for Juventus in recent times.
10 Candidates to Make the Shortlist This Year
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To kick off our list of 30, here are 10 players who are dark horses for Ballon d'Or recognition this season, as long as impressive individual displays are paired with success at both club and international level.
Antoine Griezmann (Atletico Madrid/France)
The winger has been in scintillating form in recent weeks, bursting into the new year with goals and assists. If he keeps that up and Atletico enjoy another brilliant season like last term, then he will be a name many voters pick out.
Aaron Ramsey (Arsenal/Wales)
Ramsey was the best player in the Premier League for the first few months of last season, until injuries derailed him. They are always a concern, but if he can stay fit, recover his best form and—perhaps most significantly—help Wales qualify for Euro 2016, then surely he will get strong consideration.
David Alaba (Bayern Munich/Austria)
One of the most versatile, athletic and flat-out talented of Pep Guardiola's charges, it's surely only a matter of time before Alaba gets a Ballon d'Or nomination. Leading Austria to Euro 2016 could make that happen this year.
Angel Di Maria (Manchester United/Argentina)
The World Cup catapulted Di Maria onto the 2014 shortlist, but he does not have the benefit of that world stage this time (although the Copa America will help). Still, the more integral he becomes to Manchester United's fortunes, the more likely he is to remain regarded as one of the best in the world.
Miralem Pjanic (AS Roma/Bosnia and Herzegovina)
The silky, skilled attacking midfielder has always threatened to break into the world's elite, but he has perhaps never quite found the requisite consistency. Now 24, surely that moment is approaching. With a touch and vision that often plays well with Ballon d'Or voting, Pjanic has the raw tools to be one of the very best in the world—and get the recognition that goes with that.
David de Gea (Manchester United/Spain)
Manuel Neuer's top-three spot in the 2014 award shows that goalkeepers are no longer being overlooked like they once were (you may argue they are now being overrated, but that's a debate for another time). De Gea has been imperious for United coming into 2015, and a summer move to Real Madrid would only cement in the minds of voters his position as one of the world's best.
Mario Gotze (Bayern Munich/Germany)
Scoring the winning goal in a World Cup final effectively guarantees you a Ballon d'Or nod, and so it proved for Gotze—even though he was in and out of the team for Bayern Munich and Germany for much of the year. His class should not be in doubt, however, and further nominations are surely in his future.
Thomas Muller (Bayern Munich/Germany)
Like his team-mate for club and country, Muller's 2014 nomination owed a great deal to his and Germany's World Cup campaign. Nevertheless, he is an idiosyncratic player and will surely be in and around the list of nominees should Bayern Munich pick up more trophies in 2015.
Christian Eriksen (Tottenham Hotspur/Denmark)
Why not? Eriksen ended 2014 seemingly scoring match-winners every other week for his club side. If he keeps that up and Tottenham qualify for Europe (or go deep in the Europa League), then he will have put himself on the radar. If he drives Denmark to Euro 2016 qualification as well, then he may be impossible to overlook.
Koke (Atletico Madrid/Spain)
If you were being generous, you might accept that the World Cup was the reason just two Atletico Madrid players (Diego Costa and Thibaut Courtois) received Ballon d'Or nominations in 2014, despite the brilliant season Diego Simeone's team put together. If Gabi could not get acknowledged, then you wonder what Koke has to do. However, with the wide midfielder becoming increasingly important for club and country, perhaps he will have better luck in 2015.
Yaya Toure (Manchester City/Ivory Coast)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Yaya Toure has been on the final 23-man shortlist for the Ballon d'Or in each of the past three seasons, finishing 12th in the final voting in both 2012 and 2013, and 14th in 2014.
Why he could win it in 2015:
After complaining about the lack of African recognition from the award (and in football in general), Toure has elevated his profile heading into this year, creating the very real possibility that those involved in the voting give him greater consideration than they might have done in the past.
Toure's previous nominations have been based on his goalscoring from midfield and the trademark driving performances that have spurred Manchester City on to so much success in recent times. If he continues to score plenty of goals while driving City to success in the league and Europe (and Ivory Coast at the Africa Cup of Nations), then he will be a strong candidate.
If he were to be a decisive influence in City winning the Champions League, for example, then he could well become a favourite.
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
If Toure's candidacy will be predicated on the goals he scores and the trophies he ends up winning, then it is difficult to see how he could improve significantly on his performances in both 2012 and 2014, when City won the league thanks in part to Toure's goals. But in those years, he still did not do well enough to even make the top ten.
His complaints about a perceived prejudice against African players are also just as likely to antagonize voters as they are likely to draw them towards his cause.
At 31, it is also worth wondering if he is past his peak, and his best chance of winning the award (or getting on the podium) has come and gone. Even if City enjoy a banner year, at this point, it seems more likely that someone like Sergio Aguero or David Silva would be the decisive presence.
Overall chances: Moderate
Yaya Toure has proven himself to be a consistent performer and thus a familiar favourite with the Ballon d'Or voters. Even though he is the wrong side of 30, he probably still has at least two good years left in him.
A nomination seems like a strong possibility. However, it is hard to see a vaguely realistic scenario whereby he can actually win it outright.
Diego Costa (Chelsea/Spain)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Diego Costa made the shortlist for the first time in his career in 2014, ultimately finishing 11th.
Why he could win it in 2015:
Diego Costa is the clear and unchallenged main striker for Chelsea, a team who look strong favourites to win the Premier League and one of a handful of sides entertaining realistic Champions League ambitions. If he scores the goals that achieve victory in both competitions (and better integrates into Spain's side over the course of 2015), then he becomes an obvious candidate.
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
He was the player grabbing most of the headlines when at Atletico Madrid. At Chelsea, Costa is not necessarily the alpha male that he previously was. The Blues possess a couple of other attacking players that generally gain more of the credit for the club's success.
Costa could score the key goals in Chelsea's winning campaigns and some might well point to Eden Hazard or Cesc Fabregas as more important to the successes.
His style of play is also unlikely to endear him to some, with his rough edges also creating the small possibility that some sort of disciplinary problem could kill his challenge, much like what happened to Luis Suarez in 2014.
Overall chances: Moderate
Much will depend on whether Chelsea build on a fine start to the season and deliver trophies come May. If they do, and Diego Costa is a key part of such success, then he is almost a shoo-in for a Ballon d'Or nomination.
But it is hard to see how he can shake off the perception he is a skilled labourer rather than an architect in this Chelsea team, and that might ultimately scupper any chance he has of actually winning the crown.
Karim Benzema (Real Madrid/France)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Karim Benzema has been named on the 23-man shortlist for the Ballon d'Or in 2011, 2012 and 2014—with his most recent finish (16th) also his best to date.
Why he could win it in 2015:
He's Real Madrid's main striker and France's main striker, too. At 27, he figures to be just entering his prime, so if he ups his goalscoring rate and continues to contribute to more Real Madrid success, then it is logical that he could end up doing even better than in recent seasons.
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
Simply put, it's hard to see how he will ever be considered the main man at Real Madrid. Like Diego Costa at Chelsea, he is seen more as a component than a catalyst and is surely destined to be in Cristiano Ronaldo's shadow for as long as the Portuguese plays at his current level.
Overall chances: Moderate
Again, Benzema has a great chance of extending his number of shortlists made to four in 2015, but it is hard to see him finding a way toward that podium finish.
Manuel Neuer (Bayern Munich/Germany)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
On the shortlist in each of the last three years, Neuer finished 19th in voting in 2012 before dropping to 23rd in 2013. In 2014, however, he joined Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi on the podium.
Why he could win it in 2015:
Neuer's success in the 2014 Ballon d'Or polling underlines the fact that he has, almost single-handedly, made the goalkeeper position a respected and admired one once again. Often overlooked, Neuer has changed the perception of the No. 1's importance to a successful side, just as he has redefined some aspects of the position.
With few obvious weaknesses, if Bayern Munich win the treble and he plays an integral role, then is it really so hard to see him win the famous trophy?
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
With a World Cup victory still unable to propel him to victory in 2014, it is hard to imagine how Neuer can possibly have a better season that might give him as good a chance again. Neuer is undoubtedly a brilliant goalkeeper—perhaps the best at what he does regardless of position—but it still feels like his podium finish in 2014 will be his greatest moment of recognition rather than the start of an even greater ascent.
Overall chances: Moderate
A podium finisher in 2014, it is difficult to see a scenario—short of saving four penalties and then scoring the winning goal in the Champions League final—that sees Neuer improve in 2015. Another shortlist nomination seems probable, but a podium finish might be a one-off achievement.
Diego Godin (Atletico Madrid/Uruguay)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Diego Godin has never reached the shortlist for the Ballon d'Or.
Why he could win it in 2015:
Arguably one of the most criminal omissions from the 2014 shortlist, Godin remains Atletico's emotional heartbeat. A brilliant, belligerent central defender, Godin has long set the tone for a team that continues to exceed all expectations.
If Atletico can somehow repeat last season's brilliant campaign, then surely Ballon d'Or voters will rectify their mistake and give Godin the recognition he deserves.
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
After his 2014 season, what more could he realistically do? A goal in the Champions League final and brilliant defensive display after brilliant defensive display as Atletico somehow broke the Real Madrid-Barcelona duopoly in Spain—still, that was not good enough to get Godin on the shortlist.
People still seem to expect Atletico to fall off after their miraculous season, but it has not quite happened yet. If it does, then Godin's chances will go down with his club.
Overall chances: Volatile
There is an element of boom or bust to Godin's chances, and perhaps they will live or die by how Atletico do during the calendar year. If they win the league again (or win the Champions League), then he is a strong candidate for a first nomination, and could well threaten the podium. If they come up empty-handed, however, then his brilliance in an unfashionable role will surely be ignored again.
Alexis Sanchez (Arsenal/Chile)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Alexis Sanchez has never made the Ballon d'Or shortlist.
Why he could win it in 2015:
Going from a role player at Barcelona to a key one at Arsenal during 2014, Alexis Sanchez has already shown that the Premier League is to his liking.
If he continues to score goals for fun in English football and perhaps helps Arsenal break the "close but no cigar" purgatory they have found themselves in at home and in Europe in recent seasons, then he is an obvious candidate for Ballon d'Or recognition.
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
Arsenal remain just short of football's elite, and the Ballon d'Or winners (and nominees) tend to be grouped among players from the very biggest clubs. Alexis has shown he has the skills to break beyond that issue, but if Arsenal finish fourth in the Premier League (again) and exit in the early knockout rounds of the Champions League (again), then he could easily be overlooked.
Overall chances: Volatile
The Chilean pretty evidently has the talent to gain Ballon d'Or recognition over the next few seasons, but much of that will depend on how Arsenal progress during the same period. If he drives Arsenal to the next level in 2015, then he has a good chance. Otherwise, the shortlist might once again prove slightly beyond him.
David Silva (Manchester City/Spain)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
David Silva has never been named on a Ballon d'Or shortlist.
Why he could win it in 2015:
Video footage of the Spain team practising their close control and passing prior to last summer's World Cup, showing Silva's touch to be clearly superior to some of the best technical players in the world, underlined the fact that the attacking midfielder is a rare talent.
Since he is the brains behind much of Manchester City's threat, if Silva orchestrates league and European success, then he will surely gain his first shortlist nod. Even if he doesn't, he is surely too good not to make the final 23 at some point in his career.
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
Injuries have always been a problem for Silva, who is perhaps too lightweight to take the Premier League by storm in the same way he might if he was still playing in Spain. His chances, like many of his team-mates, will live and die by how City fare: If Manuel Pellegrini's side fail in both of their primary ambitions (the Premier League and Champions League), then he may be overlooked in 2015.
Overall chances: Volatile
Silva should put himself into the Ballon d'Or conversation at some point in his career, but which year that is depends a great deal on if, or when, he ever lifts the Champions League trophy.
Carlos Tevez (Juventus/Argentina)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Carlos Tevez has yet to be named on a Ballon d'Or shortlist.
Why he could win it in 2015:
After missing out on the World Cup in 2014, Tevez enters 2015 more rested than most of the top players in the world—and in great form, ending the year with a brilliant goalscoring record for Juventus.
Back in the fold at international level and an integral part of his club side's pursuit of trophies, Tevez's goalscoring abilities and work rate could potentially make him a strong contender if Juventus and Argentina enjoy any sort of success in 2015.
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
Italian football remains behind England, Spain and Germany in general perception—Italian clubs have had just two shortlisted players in the last two years, and arguably one of those (Paul Pogba) got the nod due to his international exploits with France rather than his club efforts.
If Juventus go out early in the Champions League knockout stages, then Tevez will have to do brilliantly at domestic level to make the shortlist for the first time.
Overall chances: Reasonable
He will have to sustain it for most of the year, but Tevez is currently playing like the most important attacking player in one of the strongest sides in Europe. That is usually like catnip to Ballon d'Or voters—if Juventus can enjoy any sort of deep run in European football, then his name is bound to crop up on the shortlist (and perhaps threaten the top three).
Philipp Lahm (Bayern Munich/Germany)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Philipp Lahm has been named on the Ballon d'Or shortlist on three occasions—2014, 2013 and 2010. In 2014 he finished sixth in the final voting.
Why he could win it in 2015:
Pep Guardiola's opinion of Philipp Lahm is well-documented and, once the full-back-turned-central midfielder returns from injury, the ex-Germany captain is likely to be the brains of the Bayern team for much of 2015.
With so many talented players, Bayern's success in 2015 will likely be built on team cohesion—just as Germany's was in Brazil in 2014. On that occasion, it was Neuer who ended up resonating most with voters. Why couldn't Lahm be that figure in 2015?
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
He was the World Cup-winning captain in 2014 and that still wasn't good enough for him to win the prize—or get on the podium. What exactly does he have to do?!
Overall chances: Good
Lahm's reputation has grown year after year, and he will surely go down as one of the greatest players of his generation when all is said and done. Ballon d'Or voters occasionally fall for such sentimental reasoning, with the ensuing votes carrying a player to greater recognition.
If Bayern enjoy another dominant season and there is a lack of another obvious candidate elsewhere in the continent, then Lahm could suddenly become a strong contender—but a low shortlist placing is the more likely outcome.
Luka Modric (Real Madrid/Croatia) and Toni Kroos (Real Madrid/Germany)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Luka Modric has yet to make a Ballon d'Or shortlist. Toni Kroos received his first nomination in 2014.
Why they could win it in 2015:
Similar players who offer Real Madrid a foundation in midfield, they are two of the finest technical players in the game today. They are always likely to be a key part of any success the club has.
Why they could struggle to win it in 2015:
In the role they play, both will always get less attention and credit than those attackers slightly further forward—particularly in a team like Real Madrid. The fact they have been on one Ballon d'Or shortlist between them so far in their respective careers underlines that.
It may be unfair, but you sense both players would have to suddenly add a huge number of goals to their games before Ballon d'Or voters take them seriously.
Overall chances: Good
By rights, both players should be in any discussion for the best player in the world. If Real Madrid continue their recent run of success in 2015, then they could well be on next year's shortlist.
However, there seems to be a very real ceiling to what they can achieve in such a subjective race. As a result, they are never likely to be realistic contenders for the top prize.
Cesc Fabregas (Chelsea/Spain)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Cesc Fabregas has twice been on the Ballon d'Or shortlist, finishing 20th in 2010 and one place lower a year later (the year he moved to Barcelona).
Why he could win it in 2015:
The Premier League's assist leader heading into 2015, Fabregas has been creating goals for team-mates at a historic rate. If he can sustain that and guide Chelsea to glory along the way, then his candidacy will be very difficult to ignore.
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
His difficulties at Barcelona and his eventual sale have perhaps created the impression (rightly or wrongly) among voters that Fabregas is not quite of elite level, regardless of what he goes on to achieve at Chelsea. Plus, there will always be Eden Hazard, Oscar and Diego Costa (among others) to pull attention in different directions.
Overall chances: Promising
If Chelsea build on their fantastic start to the season, winning a trophy either at home or on the continent, then Fabregas will inevitably be cited as a key reason for that success. If he continues assisting goals at his current rate, then he has every chance of being a shortlist contender come the end of the year.
Gareth Bale (Real Madrid/Wales) and James Rodriguez (Real Madrid/Colombia)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Both players made the 23-man shortlist for 2014—it was James Rodriguez's first such nod (he finished 8th overall), while Gareth Bale ended 12th. The Welshman previously finished ninth in the voting in 2013 following his banner campaign for Tottenham Hotspur.
Why they could win it in 2015:
Both players are key attacking components at arguably the biggest and best club in the world. Usually, that's a pretty successful recipe when it comes to Ballon d'Or races. Both were nominated in 2014, and they will expect to keep going from strength to strength in the new year.
Why they could struggle to win it in 2015:
Like team-mates Kroos and Modric, both players are inevitably going to detract from each other to a certain extent, weakening their respective candidacies simply by being so close together. Plus, there's the small matter of Cristiano Ronaldo, who shows no sign of giving up his status as Real's top dog.
Overall chances: Promising
It's interesting to wonder if Bale can improve on his ninth-place finish in 2013 without being the undisputed main man like he was at Tottenham. That is always going to be the problem for both players—being at Real Madrid guarantees them a great chance of being in the final 23, but Cristiano Ronaldo's primacy almost certainly means they will never be contenders to win it outright.
Luis Suarez (Barcelona/Uruguay) and Neymar (Barcelona/Brazil)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Luis Suarez has been on the Ballon d'Or shortlist twice, finishing as high as sixth in 2011—although he missed out in 2014. Neymar finished fifth in the voting in 2013, picking up his third shortlist nod in the process.
Why they could win it in 2015:
Like Gareth Bale and James Rodriguez, Suarez and Neymar are two of the most important attacking players at one of the biggest clubs in the world. With Lionel Messi's future currently the source of much speculation, one (or both) of them could feasibly be inheriting the throne before too long.
Why they could struggle to win it in 2015:
They remain firmly in Messi's shadow, and that will likely remain the case for as long as the Argentinian is fit and firing at the club.
Overall chances: Promising
Like Bale and Rodriguez, both Barcelona players should be in shortlist consideration as long as they continue to play at a level approaching their best, but it is hard to see a realistic scenario whereby they leapfrog Messi to become genuine contenders for overall victory.
Sergio Aguero (Manchester City/Argentina)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Sergio Aguero has made the 23-man Ballon d'Or shortlist on two occasions (in 2012 and 2011), finishing 17th in the final standings on both occasions.
Why he could win it in 2015:
His hat-trick against Bayern Munich towards the end of 2014 seemed to elevate Aguero's status within the wider footballing consciousness, marking him down as arguably the best striker in England and certainly one of the very finest in Europe. If he can stay fit and score the sort of goals for which he has become known, then he will have a strong case for Ballon d'Or consideration.
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
Injuries are always a concern with Aguero, and he starts the year out of shape. If Manchester City continue their historic disappointments in Europe, then Aguero might struggle to even make the shortlist, especially if he suddenly stops scoring goals at a prolific rate.
Overall chance: Promising
We are getting to the point where players' chances of overall victory are notable, but will be predicated in great part by a) whether their club side wins their domestic league, and b) how far they go in the knockout stages of the Champions League.
Aguero is no different in that regard—his goals will always give him a chance of getting on the shortlist, but it is how City do in Europe that might define whether he ends up being a podium contender.
Franck Ribery (Bayern Munich/France) and Arjen Robben (Bayern Munich/Netherlands)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Franck Ribery finished third in the 2013 voting, but missed out on this year's shortlist. Arjen Robben has finished on the shortlist three times, but is yet to crack the top three like his club-mate. In 2014 he finished fourth.
Why they could win it in 2015:
Both brilliant attacking talents, Pep Guardiola's system seems designed to make the most of their qualities. They are capable of scoring plenty of goals and also delivering a huge number of assists (along with plenty of eye-catching moments of skill). Ribery's success in 2013 (and Robben's similar finish in 2014) shows that they both already have the admiration of a notable selection of voters and that, coupled with a few trophies in 2015, could easily ensure both contend.
Why they could struggle to win it in 2015:
You wonder if perhaps the best is behind both of these players, or as time goes on, other attacking talents (Mario Gotze, Robert Lewandowski, Thomas Muller) might take more and more of the playing time, possession and attention away from them. That is, if they aren't already taking all those things away from one another.
Overall chances: Strong
If Bayern Munich lay waste to all before them at home and abroad in 2015 (and the chances of that are good), then Ribery and Robben will always be strong contenders. You wonder how one of them can win the Ballon d'Or when both of them are there pursuing the spotlight, however.
Eden Hazard (Chelsea/Belgium)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Eden Hazard has made the 23-man shortlist in each of the last two years, finishing 21st most recently.
Why he could win it in 2015:
The common consensus is that Hazard is one of the few attacking players capable of perhaps reaching the level attained by Cristiano Ronaldo and Lionel Messi over the course of his career, and that logically makes him one of the few players competing with them for the Ballon d'Or. Capable on either foot and equally adept at scoring and providing goals, if the Belgian ups his performance levels even marginally during 2015, then his will be the name on everyone's lips.
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
Chelsea are not exactly short of attacking options elsewhere in the squad, while Jose Mourinho often prefers a pragmatic (read: defensive) approach in the very biggest games that might limit Hazard's ability to shine in the sort of matches Ballon d'Or voters are likely to remember when the time comes.
Overall chances: Strong
One of the most complete attacking players in the Premier League, Hazard is a virtual certainty for the 2015 shortlist as long as he retains his current form. If he improves further (a scary thought), and if Chelsea win something, then he could do much, much better than that.
Paul Pogba (Juventus/France)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Paul Pogba made the shortlist in 2014, his first nod. He finished 22nd.
Why he could win it in 2015:
Now a first-team regular at Juventus after initially being brought along rather slowly, Paul Pogba is eminently capable of establishing himself as one of the very best central midfielders in the game.
He can tackle, he can pass, he can shoot—he has everything in his locker, the prototype for the modern midfielder. If 2015 is his real coming-out party (and his World Cup displays hinted it could happen very soon), then he will have a strong candidacy.
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
Midfielders haven't played brilliantly in Ballon d'Or voting in recent years—the award seems to love goals, goals and more goals. While Pogba's are often breathtaking, the volume is never going to be up there with some of the other contenders.
Italy-based footballers have often been overlooked in recent years, too, while Pogba's chances will diminish greatly if Juventus don't last at least a round or two in the Champions League knockout stages.
Overall chances: Strong
Pogba's potential is almost unlimited. It is hard to imagine him not contending strongly for a Ballon d'Or at some point during his career. So why not in 2015? Well, much will depend on how Juventus fare in their various competitions—if they win a couple of trophies, he could be in the overall discussion, but that is not necessarily a cast-iron certainty. Maybe he will have to leave to reach his full potential…
Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Paris Saint-Germain/Sweden)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Zlatan Ibrahimovic has been on the last three Ballon d'Or shortlists, finishing as high as fourth in 2013. In 2014 he ended 13th.
Why he could win it in 2015:
Goals, outrageous skill, brilliant arrogance, a talismanic aura—Ibrahimovic ticks all the boxes required of a potential Ballon d'Or winner. He has already shown his popularity with the voters, as he was one of only two players on the 2014 shortlist (the other being Gareth Bale) who did not feature at the World Cup.
PSG have been knocking on the door in Europe for a while now, and if Ibrahimovic helps push them forward in that arena, then he could have a real case.
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
At 33, it's not outrageous to suggest that Ibrahimovic has already peaked or, at best, that this is his very last chance to win the game's most prestigious individual award.
PSG have yet to truly convince domestically, and if that is combined with another shortcoming in the Champions League, then the Swede may have to settle for another nomination but no podium finish.
Overall chances: Strong
PSG seem well-placed to finally make a statement in the Champions League (they should have done last season, but they threw away their quarter-final with Chelsea). If they reach the final this year, then Ibrahimovic's cult status may quickly see a campaign for him to win the award pick up real pace. Either way, with his goals, style and impact on the pitch, he is one of a handful of players who definitely could challenge the Messi-Ronaldo duopoly over this award.
Lionel Messi (Barcelona/Argentina)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
Lionel Messi hasn't been outside the top three in the last five Ballon d'Ors—indeed, ever since it took its current format. But after winning the top prize in 2010, 2011 and 2012 (and 2009, before FIFA became involved), he has been usurped by Cristiano Ronaldo more recently.
Why he could win it in 2015:
Erm, if you didn't know, he's pretty good. One of only two players realistically in the discussion to be "best player in the world" (the discussion this award is supposed to reflect), Messi has the sort of ability pretty much no other player in history has demonstrated. If Barcelona win trophies at home and in Europe in 2015, then Messi's is the only name most people will need.
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
The problem, of course, is whether Barcelona will win anything in 2015. The club starts the year in turmoil, unable to sign anyone all calendar year and facing a challenge from both Madrid clubs in the league.
Messi, too, starts the year unsettled, with rumours about Chelsea's interest and his dissatisfaction with the Barcelona hierarchy (per ESPN FC). Such issues are normally not conducive to another Ballon d'Or year, although Messi is not a normal player.
Overall chances: Very strong
We can talk about other candidates all we like, but the Ballon d'Or remains a two-horse race in reality. Barring a long-term injury, Messi will be measured against his old nemesis, Ronaldo—with the winner, in the goalscoring charts and the trophy hauls, likely to be crowned the winner in the end.
Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid/Portugal)
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Ballon d'Or pedigree:
After finishing second to Messi three years in a row, Ronaldo finally broke past his nemesis to win each of the last two awards—building on an earlier win in 2009 (when FIFA were not involved in the award).
Why he could win it in 2015:
Because he is the best player on what the majority of people, if forced to choose, would identify as the best team in the world right now.
Ronaldo has, for many years now, scored goals at a rate almost no other player has ever matched, delivering trophy after trophy for his club in the process.
The tears he shed after winning the award for 2013, and then the roar he let out after winning in 2014, underline just how much the award means to him—that passion for individual accolades will surely continue to drive him for a good while yet, and makes him a strong contender to win a third Ballon d'Or in a row.
Why he could struggle to win it in 2015:
At 29, the decline has to start happening eventually, and many wonder if it could be sooner rather than later, considering his hyper-athletic playing style.
If Real Madrid fail to win either the league or Champions League this season (and no club has ever defended the latter), then some will ask whether he really deserves another Ballon d'Or.
Ronaldo has also been lucky with injuries. If a long-term one befalls him in 2015, then there are plenty of team-mates who will look to usurp his primacy while he is on the sidelines.
Overall chances: The Favourite
Nobody scores goals like Ronaldo, and nobody courts the spotlight quite like him, either. He still seems to be getting better each year, and if Real Madrid get the better of Messi and Barcelona once again in 2015, then it is very hard to look beyond Madrid's and Portugal's No. 7 for the next Ballon d'Or.
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