2014-15 PGA Tour Player of the Year Odds: Handicapping the Field
Who would have thought that Billy Horschel would have a better 2013-2014 season than Tiger Woods when the campaign began?
Such is the difficulty in predicting success on the PGA Tour in general.
The winner of the Player of the Year will join a list of recent winners that includes:
- 2014: Rory McIlroy
- 2013: Tiger Woods
- 2012: Rory McIlroy
- 2011: Luke Donald
- 2010: Jim Furyk
Who has the best chance of capturing POY for 2015? Click through to see.
Jimmy Walker
1 of 8
Positive trends for 2015: He enters the season as a PGA Tour winner (of multiple tournaments, no less).
Jimmy Walker will tee it up 2015 at Kapalua amid an elite fraternity. And while Walker did falter in 2014 after a period of brilliance from early October through mid-February, he still enters this year having won three times in the previous campaign.
Explaining the odds: 60-1
We're optimists here at Bleacher Report. Thus, we're predicting Jimmy Walker, who won three times on tour last year, will win again in 2014. Even with a win, the players in front of him will have amassed superior records at the end of the year, making Walker's chances at capturing POY slim.
Rickie Fowler
2 of 8
Positive trends for 2015: Rickie Fowler went from being a minor disappointment to a major contender thanks to his efforts in 2014.
Explaining the odds: 55-1
Assuming Rickie Fowler ties his career high in victories (one) in 2015 or even adds one more to bring his season win total to two, it's likely that every golfer on this list ahead of him will have more victories and arguably better chances in each of the four major championships.
Still, there's a (55-1) chance.
Bubba Watson
3 of 8
Positive trends for 2015: Watson had an early-season win to jump-start his 2015 campaign (WGC-HSBC Champions).
Explaining the odds: 45-1
Bubba Watson is already a winner on tour this year. Thus, at this ridiculously early juncture, he's at the forefront of the discussion for Player of the Year. As to what else he'll do this year, who knows?
Watson clearly has a tremendous knack for playing Augusta National and seems generally indifferent otherwise. It's difficult to imagine him rattling off three or four wins in a year.
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Jordan Spieth
4 of 8
Positive trends for 2015: A huge wave of momentum.
While the Hero World Challenge was an unofficial event and the Australian Open wasn't a PGA Tour-sanctioned tournament, Jordan Spieth's wins in back-to-back weeks suggest he's poised to do big things in 2015.
Explaining the odds: 35-1
Jordan Spieth didn't win in 2014. Overall, he recorded top-10 finishes in about one-third of his PGA Tour starts. A slight improvement on this performance would yield perhaps one victory this year. Certainly, Spieth's near-victory at Augusta was encouraging as well.
Let's say he wins the Masters this year and captures an additional win or two. This could secure POY honors but only if the players ahead of him have the worst years of their respective careers.
Matt Kuchar
5 of 8
Positive trends for 2015: A penchant for finishing near the top.
Matt Kuchar won the RBC Heritage last year, and the win was one of his 11 top-10 finishes.
Explaining the odds: 24-1
Why does Matt Kuchar have nearly a 5 percent chance of winning Player of the Year? Simple. He has more experience than any other golfer on this list (save for one). He finished inside the top 15 in two of the three majors he competed in. He'll hang around major leaderboards this season and could take home a win.
Beyond that, banking on the 36-year-old to win at least twice is a safer bet than the less consistent options behind Kuchar on this list. If he accomplishes the feat and is able to remove the "best player without a major" monkey from his back, Kuchar could take the POY title.
His odds (and really the odds of players eight through five on this list) are small because of the likelihood of a dominant campaign from the first-, second- or third-ranked player here.
Adam Scott
6 of 8
Positive trends for 2015: Scott had top 10s in nearly half his starts and fourth in strokes gained total.
Explaining the odds: 20-1
Few golfers on tour are as solid from tee to green as Adam Scott. And he's figured out the approach to life on tour that works best for him. As a new husband and father this year, expect Scott to play better, not lose focus.
With his personal life reaching a culmination of sorts, he'll want to tie up loose ends on tour this year. He'll also play a larger role in his course management with caddie Steve Williams retired. This means Scotty will be primed and well-positioned for major success and additional tournament victories in '15.
Tiger Woods
7 of 8
Positive trends for 2015: Tiger Woods seems to have put his back issues behind him (get it?) and has regained some speed and explosiveness in his golf swing. Plus he's working on taking elements from his early swing and incorporating them into his current move through the ball.
Explaining the odds: 8-1
Let's assume Tiger Woods is healthy and pain-free in 2015. If this is the case, even with whatever swing refinements he and coach Chris Como are working on, he will most likely win multiple golf tournaments. How many other golfers on tour are likely to win more than three times?
Woods will also likely contend in at least one major championship. If the stars are aligned and his weekend major foibles behind him, he should be able to capture a title. How many other golfers can we offer similar predictions for?
Thus, even though he is coming off the worst year of his career and was unimpressive at the Hero World Challenge, Woods is still the second most likely player to capture Player of the Year.
Rory McIlroy
8 of 8
Positive trends for 2015: He won the last two majors of the year in gritty fashion. That's a pretty firm leg to stand on entering the new year. Rory McIlroy's ball-striking, particularly his driving, was otherworldly in the final third of 2014.
Explaining the odds: 3-2
If the No. 1 golfer on the planet does anything resembling what we expect him to do in 2015, he'll run away with the Player of the Year award. You don't have to be an impassioned McIlroy supporter who's tossed back one too many (or Colin Montgomerie) and is engaged in a lively bar debate to believe that McIlroy has a good chance at winning at least one major in 2014.
It's difficult to think that he won't manage at least three additional victories on the PGA Tour in 2015. Thus, at a minimum, he'll have a major and multiple other victories. Who else is expected to do anything close to that in 2015?
Stats via PGATour.com, odds are my own.
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