Carlton Bragg Decision: Odds for Contenders to Land Top 2015 Recruit

One team is set to get a big boost to its 2015 recruiting class when 5-star recruit Carlton Bragg makes his decision.

The Ohio native is rated as the No. 16 player in the graduating class by 247Sports, but the power forward's upside is even higher. As he continues to develop, he has the length and athleticism to be a truly dominant player not only in college, but possibly at the NBA level.

Before then, he will have to choose a school that will get the most out of his potential. According to Steve Jones of The Courier-Journal, Bragg will officially make his choice Thursday between Kentucky, Kansas and Illinois.

Which of these squads represents the best fit for the talented youngster in his own mind? All three represent quality opportunities, but only one will be the eventual winner of the sweepstakes.

Here is a look at odds for each of the finalists heading into Bragg's decision.

Illinois: 10-1

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While it's easy to overlook Illinois against recruiting powerhouses like Kentucky and Kansas, head coach John Groce has put in a lot of work to keep his team among the finalists. 

"Groce hangs his hat on the trust factor," Bragg's mentor, Michael Graves, told Alex Roux of The Daily Illini. "You know, they've been there from the beginning, you can trust him, and they haven't missed an AAU game in two years."

The head coach has also already shown his recruiting ability with an impressive 2015 class, featuring four players already signed. The highlight of the group is point guard Jalen Coleman-Lands (No. 33 overall on 247Sports), a quality distributor who creates open looks for others.

Any big man would love to play with a player who can do all the hard work before getting an easy bucket inside.

Additionally, this squad would be able to take advantage of Bragg's style of play. His biggest strength is his work in transition. He runs the floor well for a big man and has a good enough handle to even lead a fast break on his own and finish at or above the rim.

Considering Illinois utilizes the fastest pace of the three finalists (68.4 possessions per game, according to KenPom.com), this would be a great fit. 

Unfortunately, the 6'8" forward has aspirations of playing in the NBA, and he needs a coach he can trust to get him there. The only player drafted out of Illinois in the past eight years was Meyers Leonard in 2012, and he is off to a slow start to his professional career.

Bragg is still very raw as a player and needs guidance on both ends of the court. While both competing coaches have loads of experience with these types of projects, Groce is still a novice in this respect.

The Illini would let the forward put up huge collegiate numbers by taking a lot of shots as the go-to player, but he is likely looking for more in his next stop.

Kentucky: 3-1

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The allure of Kentucky is understandable for any recruit. Head coach John Calipari has turned the Wildcats into almost a minor league system for the NBA, even holding separate combines for scouts to watch.

Even Bragg was impressed by success in this area, telling Jones, "Kentucky, if you go there—I'm not trying to brag or nothing—but it's one and done, regardless. It's success all day."

Adding in success on the court with Kentucky ranked No. 1 in the nation and flirting with an undefeated season, it's understandable that the school is a top finalist for Bragg as well as just about every top recruit in the country.

On the other hand, the young player does have to wake up to the fact that just joining Big Blue Nation doesn't get him an NBA contract. The 2013 class was considered by some to be the best freshman group in history with six McDonald's All-Americans, but only two—Julius Randle and James Young—immediately left for the NBA.

It conceivable that none of the remaining four even leave after this season, with Dakari Johnson the only real possibility.

There is a legitimate logjam at Kentucky, and it isn't going away anytime soon. Next season will likely see a frontcourt of Johnson, Marcus Lee, Alex Poythress and maybe Trey Lyles battle for minutes along with incoming recruit Skal Labissiere and any other high school player who puts on a Kentucky hat between now and October. 

Bragg is an emotional player who sometimes disappears when things aren't going his way. As ESPN notes (subscription required), at the next level, he will "need to play with more energy and urgency and compete throughout the game."

If he is limited to short stints off the bench and less than 15-20 minutes per game, his development could be hindered. 

Kentucky is no longer a sure thing for recruits trying to reach the next level, and this wouldn't be the best place for the forward to call home.

Kansas 2-1

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Bragg's patience could end up being tested if he chooses to play at Kansas. Head coach Bill Self doesn't care where you are rated by recruiting services because he will only play those who can help the team win.

Highly touted freshmen Kelly Oubre Jr. and Cliff Alexander have struggled to get consistent playing time for much of their first year with the Jayhawks despite their obvious talent, and Bragg could receive the same treatment. 

That being said, this type of coaching might end up being the best thing for these players going forward. Self has certainly gotten plenty of top recruits to the next level by forcing them to focus on defense while improving overall self-control on the court.

For all of Bragg's talents, he often forces jumpers instead of trying to get an easier shot inside. He also needs to learn better fundamentals on the defensive end to go with his elite shot-blocking ability. Playing at Kansas could help turn him from a high-upside prospect into a legitimate star.

More importantly, the opportunity will be there to showcase what he can do. Kansas has utilized a short bench this season that seems to be shrinking every game. Only seven players saw more than two minutes in the recent win over UNLV.

If Alexander and Oubre declare for the draft, the Jayhawks will need some immediate reinforcements. While they are finalists for many top recruits in the 2015 class, no one has given a commitment yet.

Even though he has much to learn, Bragg could make an impact early on as one of the focal points offensively for a team constantly on national television and in the public eye. This seems to be the best of all worlds for the talented youngster, making it the most likely destination among three great choices.

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