Joshua Kimmich: Have Bayern Munich Overvalued German Prospect?

Allan JiangJan 5, 2015

Bayern Munich have started 2015 by planning for the future, signing German defensive midfielder Joshua Kimmich, 19. If you support Bayern Munich, then you need to be cautiously optimistic.

You may wonder if Bayern Munich have put too much stock in Kimmich's upside, rather than his current playing ability.

Being involved in an uncommon three-team transfer shows you how determined Bayern Munich were to lock down Kimmich.

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Eins: RB Leipzig.

Part of Austrian energy drink billionaire Dietrich Mateschitz's sports network, RB Leipzig are laying the groundwork for sustainable success.

"It certainly wouldn't be a disadvantage to get promoted as soon as possible," Mateschitz said, per SPORT1 (h/t Press Association Sport via SBS). "But on the other hand, things need to be given time and you need consolidation phases."

Targeting promising youth footballers from other clubs is one of RB Leipzig's methods in consolidating their gains.

"RB Leipzig focused on young or at least relatively young talent," per John Hennig at Der Spiegel. "Men known mostly to sport insiders ... [like] Joshua Kimmich, who comes from Stuttgart."

RB Leipzig have frequently succeeded in pitching offers to Stuttgart talents.

Rani Khedira (2014).
Filip Rettig (2013).
God's Power Ikeokwu (2013).
Joshua Kimmich (2013).
Shaban Ismaili (2010).

Zwei: Stuttgart.

Stuttgart sold Kimmich to RB Leipzig for €500,000, but "secured a re-purchase option," per VFB.de.

It was an enterprising ploy from Stuttgart to negotiate a modest €750,000 buy-back clause as it gave them a cheap out in case Kimmich's value ascended into seven or eight digits.

That scenario came to fruition.

The Fritz Walter Medal is an annual award given to the three best German youth footballers.

Kimmich was awarded the silver medal in 2013 and the bronze medal in 2014 meaning it was a matter of when—not if—he would return to Stuttgart.

Bayern Munich pushed the process along, per FCBayern.de: "[Kimmich] is currently with second division RB Leipzig but returns to his former club Stuttgart at the end of the season in line with an option clause in the player's contract. Kimmich will join Bayern Munich on 1 July 2015."

Stuttgart activated their option to re-sign Kimmich from RB Leipzig for €750,000.
Bayern Munich offered Stuttgart €7 million for Kimmich.
By accepting Bayern Munich's proposal, Stuttgart made a €6.25 million profit.

When asked to react to the transfer, Stuttgart manager Huub Stevens understood the context behind Kimmich's decision.

"[Kimmich] wants the best, his agent wants the best and his parents want the best," Stevens said, per SPORT1 (h/t ITV). "When Bayern Munich come along, it becomes very difficult [for Kimmich] to say no."

Here is the context behind Stuttgart's decision to not hold on to Kimmich.

"But €7 million [for Kimmich]?" Stevens said, per SPORT1 (h/t ITV). "My word, that's a lot of money for a player who has yet to appear in the Bundesliga."

With 17 points from 17 Bundesliga games, Stuttgart must improve their side, otherwise they could be relegated to the 2. Bundesliga.

Bayern Munich's expeditiousness in finishing the Kimmich deal is a godsend for Stuttgart.

Why?

Stuttgart can now spend an extra €6.25 - €7 million in the January transfer window to bolster their squad as they aim to stay in the Bundesliga.

Drei: Bayern Munich.

What are the positive qualities Bayern Munich see in Kimmich?

"[Kimmich] seems to know his limits and plays very well within his means," per Clark Whitney at Bleacher Report. "The mettle he's shown as a youth player is perhaps the most important attribute towards his future success."

Kimmich is a No. 6, who offloads the ball quickly and is "without question" a footballer who fits Bayern Munich manager Pep Guardiola's playing style, per Christopher Mayer-Lodge at Bundesliga.com.

Another standard Bayern Munich management may have evaluated Kimmich by is his football IQ.

Instead of offering blase, cliched and dull responses, Kimmich was articulate and introspective in an interview with Andrew Haslam at UEFA.com:

"
Opponents like Ukraine sit back and wait for you to make mistakes, and we knew we couldn't make the same errors we did against Serbia.
[...]
Making mistakes is normal; if you don't play a risky ball, you don't progress, and you can learn from that.
[...]
It depends on the situation; sometimes it makes more sense to play a safe ball and sometimes you can afford to be risky.
"

Yes, Bayern Munich's €7 million fee for Kimmich is conspicuous, but it is not unprecedented.

Bayern Munich have signed prospects while gambling significant fees relative to the transfer market economics at the time.

Breno, €12 million (Sao Paulo; 2008).
Roque Santa Cruz, €5 million (Olimpia; 1999).
Alexander Zickler, €1.15 million (Dynamo Dresden; 1993).

RB Leipzig and Hoffenheim—backed by German software billionaire Dietmar Hopp—have inflated the 2. Bundesliga's transfer market economics.

Carlos Eduardo Marques, €7 million (Gremio → Hoffenheim; 2007).
Massimo Bruno, €5 million (Anderlecht → RB Leipzig; 2014).

Invariably, Bayern Munich played ball.

Despite being a two-time Fritz Walter Medallist, Kimmich failed to impress the UEFA technical observers when Marcus Sorg coached Germany to triumph at the 2014 UEFA European Under-19 Championship.

The UEFA technical observers omitted Kimmich from the Team of the Tournament, but selected six of his compatriots, per UEFA.com.