Rose Bowl 2015: Final Odds and Prediction for Oregon vs. FSU

The College Football Playoff kicks off the new year. 

First up is showdown between Heisman Trophy winners when Marcus Mariota's Oregon Ducks dance with Jameis Winston's Florida State Seminoles at 5 p.m. ET on Thursday.

Both teams are understood commodities at this point. Oregon's typically high-flying offense clashes with a team that has not lost in two seasons and won it all a year ago. This showdown in particular seemed set in stone before the season even began, although the path for each squad proved to be a wild ride.

Las Vegas seems to believe one side has an edge. To find out why, below is one last look at the encounter before things get underway.

Rose Bowl Odds and Schedule

Date	Game	Start Time (ET)	Network	Odds
January 1, 2015	Rose Bowl (Semifinal No. 1)	5 p.m.	ESPN	Oregon (-7.5)

Preview and Prediction 

Oregon's favored status in this semifinal is a result of many factors.

It helps that Mariota, the man who ran away with the Heisman this year, leads the Ducks. Thank 3,783 yards and 38 touchdowns to two interceptions, as well as 669 rushing yards and 14 scores, for that.

Also, thank a one-loss record. Oregon took down Michigan State, Stanford, Utah, Oregon State in the Civil War and Arizona in dominant fashion. The last team on the list—a young, up-and-coming Wildcats squad—took down Oregon in early October but was then felled 51-13 in the Pac-12 title game.

Now contrast this with negatives concerning Florida State, particularly the defense.

Jimbo Fisher's unit ranks 30th, allowing an average of 23.0 points per game. Eddie Goldman and others downright struggle to get off the field, which is why teams such as Boston College can rush for 240 yards and a score and only lose by three points against the Winston-led Seminoles.

A lack of pressure and control at the line of scrimmage is a nightmare scenario against the Ducks.

Mariota has lost key players such as tackle Tyler Johnstone and center Hroniss Grasu along the line, but he remains one of the least pressured players in the country, per Pro Football Focus' Steve Palazzolo (h/t Rotoworld's Josh Norris):

Credit Mariota's mobility and designed rollouts for that. There is only so much any defense can do against Mariota. Bring pressure with extra bodies? He escapes and torches an exposed secondary. Drop more men into coverage and hope a standard rush hits home? He has all day to poke holes in the secondary.

There are positives for the Seminoles, though.

Winston, believe it or not, remains one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Folks rave about his 24 touchdowns to 17 interceptions on the year, but the fact remains that he turns up his play in the second half of each game and keeps his team alive.

Fisher took the time recently to point out other areas in which his star quarterback excels, per Fox Sports' Bruce Feldman:

The Seminoles have something special in freshman tailback Dalvin Cook, too. The author of several game-changing runs over the course of the last few weeks, the Miami native has put the Seminoles on his back with 144 yards against Florida and 177 and a score against Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game.

Mark Helfrich's Ducks are no slouch defensively, as a 29th-ranked unit that allows an average of 22.5 points per game is quite impressive given the pass-happy ways of the Pac-12.

It all feels like a contest in which the first team to jump ahead will stay there. If Mariota can grab an early lead, it would minimize Cook's impact and allow the Ducks to distance themselves before Winston's inevitable late-game push.

If Winston and Cook can strike first, then the latter can sit on the ball and ride the clock before placing the game in the former's hands late.

The plodding approach to Florida State's attack, which starts slow and finishes fast, simply does not match up well against the Ducks. Oregon goes full throttle from start to end, something that will prove too difficult for Fisher's team to match.

Look for the Ducks to jump out early behind razor-sharp play by Mariota. Winston will make a push late to create an interesting bit of drama, but the Ducks seem to be a team that has overcome all obstacles in convincing fashion and exorcised plenty of demons along the way.

This time, Las Vegas has it right.

Prediction: Oregon 34, Florida State 24

Betting information courtesy of Odds Shark. Statistics and info courtesy of ESPN unless otherwise specified.