Orange Bowl 2014: Mississippi State Will Survive Georgia Tech in Shootout

There are two ways to look at the matchup between Mississippi State and Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl: Either both teams are thrilled to be playing in the game or each team is disappointed with its lot in life.

The former viewpoint would suggest that both Mississippi State and Georgia Tech are overachievers and reached a bowl game most folks wouldn't have pegged them to reach this season.

The latter viewpoint points out that Mississippi State was at one point the No. 1 team in the country, while Georgia Tech lost a tight game to Florida State in the ACC title game.

Any way you slice it, Wednesday's game should be a fun one that will come down to the wire. Mississippi State is going to sneak away with a victory, however.

For starters, the Bulldogs have the best offensive player in this game in quarterback Dak Prescott and an excellent running back in Josh Robinson. Prescott had an awesome 2014, throwing for 2,996 yards, 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, while rushing for 939 yards and another 13 touchdowns.

He's been tough to stop all year, and as David M. Hale of ESPN.com writes, the one way to slow him down hasn't exactly been one of Georgia Tech's strengths this season:

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In Mississippi State's 10 wins, QB Dak Prescott had a QBR of 81.4. In its two losses, his QBR was just 34.0. That makes the job for Tech's defense clear: Rattle Prescott. That job won't be easy, of course. Prescott was a Heisman favorite for much of the season, and he's one of the nation's top QBs. Moreover, Georgia Tech has struggled to consistently get pressure on the passer, ranking 105th nationally in sack rate. When it recorded two or more sacks in a game, Tech was 6-0 and allowed just 18 points per game. When it didn't, Tech was just 2-3 vs. FBS foes, allowing an average of 36 points per game.

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When they aren't dealing with Prescott, they'll have to deal with Robinson, who rushed for 1,128 yards and 11 touchdowns this season. The Bulldogs boast a well-rounded offense that averages 506.2 yards (ranked ninth in the nation) and 37.2 points (14th) per game, so they'll attack Georgia Tech in a number of ways.

For Georgia Tech to win this game, two things need to happen: It needs to control the ball on offense and be opportunistic on defense.

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It's managed to do both for much of the year. Head coach Paul Johnson’s option offense and standout quarterback Justin Thomas (965 rushing yards this year) have led Georgia Tech to the second-ranked rushing offense in the country (333.6 yards per game), one that ranks third in time of possession (34:02).

Mississippi State star linebacker Benardrick McKinney is going to have his hands full in this one. Really, all of the Bulldogs will. They talked with Andrea Adelson of ESPN.com about preparing for the triple-option attack:

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"This will be the first real deal since high school and it was hard to stop then, so it's going to be even harder to stop on this level," Mississippi State cornerback Jamerson Love told reporters in South Florida. "They want to run the ball, but they will sneak it and throw it on you. They have some huge receivers. We just have to go out and play physical all game."

[Head coach Dan] Mullen added the biggest challenge is "the chop blocks—you can’t simulate that at practice. When you’re getting that type of speed and how aggressive all the chop blocks are, that’s one of the things that’s a huge challenge in preparing for these guys and how fast we adjust to the speed of the game."

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The Bulldogs have been inconsistent against the run this season, yes, but they are better at defending that than the pass. While Georgia Tech can throw the ball around a little bit, its bread is buttered by running the ball. Plus, Hale reports the Yellow Jackets will be without star receiver DeAndre Smelter, which will really hurt the passing game.

That means that the Yellow Jackets may not be able to fully exploit Mississippi State's biggest weakness, a pass defense giving up 285.2 yards per game through the air (125th).

Georgia Tech doesn't only hold on to the ball—it also likes to take it away, forcing 27 turnovers this year and turning six of them into defensive touchdowns.

Georgia Tech's defense is going to have a hard time slowing down this Mississippi State offense, but if they can capitalize on a few turnovers, the momentum could swing in the Yellow Jackets' direction.

Still, the explosive nature of Mississippi State's offense and the ability of Prescott to take over at any moment is going to make the Bulldogs tough to beat. Georgia Tech is going to have to completely control the ball on offense, come up with timely turnovers and find a way to slow down Prescott and Robinson.

That seems like too much to ask from this Georgia Tech squad. This one is going to be close, but the Bulldogs will prevail in the end.