Power Ranking New Year's Day Bowl Games by Watchability
Quality over quantity. That’s the message college football’s powers that be have sent us for our traditional New Year’s Day bowl bonanza in 2015.
New Year’s Day has always been one of the best days on the calendar to watch college football: standout teams in matchups that are truly meaningful. But the BCS era changed that somewhat, with BCS-associated games spread from Jan. 1-3 and the BCS National Championship following five to seven days later.
Although the Rose Bowl kept its traditional late-afternoon New Year’s Day slot, the day itself lost a good bit of its luster. The arrival of the College Football Playoff has changed that. All of the “New Year’s Six” bowl games are concentrated on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1, creating a true event feel for the postseason’s most prominent games.
This season, the Peach Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and Orange Bowl will take place on Dec. 31, while the Cotton Bowl, Rose Bowl and Fiesta Bowl will follow on New Year’s Day. There are only five games slated for New Year’s Day (as opposed to six a year ago), but they all feel important. Most important, of course, are the inaugural College Football Playoff semifinals, which will be set in the Rose and Sugar Bowls. Here’s a look at the New Year’s Day bowl slate, with the games rated by watchability.
5. Citrus Bowl
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The Citrus Bowl pairs teams who exceeded expectations this fall. Following a 5-7 season in 2012, Missouri surprised many by winning the SEC East, making the SEC Championship and winning 12 games in 2013. The Tigers returned only nine starters from that team, so this season’s SEC East championship was perhaps even more stunning.
Minnesota’s 8-4 season was also impressive. The Gophers were picked near the bottom of the Big Ten West but kept themselves in contention for a division title until falling in the regular-season’s final week at Wisconsin. This is the program’s first New Year’s Day bowl since 1962. Jerry Kill’s bunch isn’t always flashy, but it has been successful this season.
Senior tailback David Cobb has been one of the nation’s best runners, gaining 1,548 rushing yards with 13 touchdowns. Quarterback Mitch Leidner was capable in his first season as a starter, accounting for 2,002 yards of total offense and 20 total touchdowns. Tight end Maxx Williams (29 receptions, 471 yards, seven touchdowns) was an All-American. However, Minnesota will beat you with the run, not the pass. The Gophers were No. 27 nationally in rushing yards per game and No. 123 in passing yards, gaining only 131.4 passing yards per game.
Missouri succeeded with defense rather than offense. The Tigers yielded 21.4 points per game, No. 25 nationally. Defensive end Shane Ray emerged as one of the nation’s top pass-rushers, piling up an SEC-best 14 sacks. He was named as a consensus All-American.
While sophomore Maty Mauk threw for 2,551 yards with 23 touchdowns against 11 interceptions in his first season as a full-time starter, his play was inconsistent. In a two-game stretch against Georgia and Florida, he threw for 117 yards with no touchdowns and five interceptions. He’ll also be without his No. 2 receiver in Jimmie Hunt (40 receptions, 698 yards, seven touchdowns). Hunt will miss the Citrus Bowl due to a shoulder surgery.
The Citrus Bowl should be a competitive, tightly played game. But it’s going up against the Cotton Bowl and Outback Bowl, and unless you’re a Minnesota or Missouri fan, we certainly can’t recommend turning off those games in favor of this one.
4. Outback Bowl
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The Outback Bowl features a pair of teams trying to write a memorable ending to their 2014 campaigns following disappointing finishes to their regular seasons. Auburn (8-4) had dreams of taking the next step following 2013’s BCS national runner-up finish, but the Tigers lost November games to Texas A&M, Georgia and Alabama. Wisconsin won the Big Ten West Division, but the Badgers are smarting following a 59-0 embarrassment at Ohio State’s hands in the Big Ten title game.
A few days after the title game, second-year coach Gary Andersen bolted Wisconsin to take over Oregon State’s program. Meanwhile, Auburn coach Gus Malzahn canned defensive coordinator Ellis Johnson following continued defensive struggles; the Tigers allowed 26.1 points per game, No. 59 nationally. AU allowed at least 31 points in each of its last seven SEC games.
Wisconsin is led by Heisman Trophy runner-up Melvin Gordon, who had a huge season with 2,336 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns. Gordon averages 7.6 yards per carry. One of the most interesting storylines will be his chase of Barry Sanders’ NCAA single-season rushing record. Gordon is within 292 yards of the mark, so he’d need a huge day to catch him. However, he has games of 408, 259, 253, 205 and 200 yards this season, so it is within his capabilities. Auburn allows 149.5 rushing yards per game, No. 45 nationally.
Auburn has struggled defensively but has one of the nation’s top rushing attacks, averaging 258.5 rushing yards per game, No. 12 nationally. Senior Cameron Artis-Payne has 1,482 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, while senior quarterback Nick Marshall has added 780 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. Junior D’haquille Williams proved himself as an excellent deep threat with 45 receptions for 730 yards and five touchdowns, but he has been suspended for the Outback Bowl, per AL.com's Brandon Marcello. Fellow junior Sammie Coates has 30 receptions for 717 yards and four scores, averaging 23.9 yards per reception.
Both teams have been inconsistent, at best, in the passing game. Expect this to be a ground-based affair with a handful of big plays through the air. Motivation will be interesting here, but there’s clear talent on both sides. Will newly hired Auburn defensive coordinator Will Muschamp have an impact in any way? Will Wisconsin interim coach Barry Alvarez even his interim coach record at 1-1? Tune in and see.
3. Cotton Bowl
3 of 5
The Cotton Bowl joins the postseason’s true upper echelon this season, and it begins its new status with a pair of teams who wanted to end their seasons at AT&T Stadium, only 11 days later. Michigan State hoped to build on a 13-1 2013 that included a Big Ten title and Rose Bowl win, but defensive issues (a combined 95 points allowed to playoff qualifiers Oregon and Ohio State) left them here.
Baylor lost only one game (41-27 at West Virginia) but wound up just short of a College Football Playoff bid. The Bears will have to comfort themselves with a near-home game (Baylor’s campus is 90 minutes from AT&T Stadium). Senior quarterback Bryce Petty said he and his teammates are upset about the playoff snub, per David Ubben of FoxSportsSouthwest.com.
"I guess the TCU (win) didn't matter to most people and it was evident right off the bat. Then the other thing, when you've got two Big 12 teams that are No. 3 and No. 6 and none of them get in, that's motivation when you feel that our conference we played week in and week out isn't good enough to get in the top four. It pisses us off.
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Art Briles’ bunch has the nation’s top scoring offense, averaging 48.8 points per game, and the No. 5 passing offense (346.2 yards per game). Petty, playing his final collegiate game, enters with 3,305 passing yards and 26 touchdowns against six interceptions, and tailback Shock Linwood has 1,226 rushing yards with 16 touchdowns on the ground.
Michigan State has a balanced, effective offense (261.6 yards passing, 234.9 rushing). Junior quarterback Connor Cook has already announced that he’ll return for his senior season, and he could use the Cotton Bowl as a platform for a 2015 Heisman Trophy run. He has 2,900 passing yards with 22 touchdowns against six interceptions.
It’ll be the final game for a pair of key offensive cogs in senior tailback Jeremy Langford and senior wideout Tony Lippett. Langford has 1,360 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns, while Lippett has 60 receptions for 1,124 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns.
Expect this game to feature plenty of points, as the Spartans average 43.1 per game. Aside from Oregon and Ohio State, MSU has also been stingy defensively, yielding 19.9 points per game, No. 14 nationally. Will Sparty be able to hold down Petty and Baylor’s fast-paced offense? It’ll be worth clicking over for the high noon (Central) kickoff and finding out.
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2. Sugar Bowl
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Alabama and Ohio State are two of college football’s biggest traditional powers, but the Crimson Tide and Buckeyes rarely cross paths. In fact, the Sugar Bowl will be just the fourth all-time meeting between these programs, and the first since the 1995 Citrus Bowl, a 24-17 Alabama victory. With a spot in the first College Football Playoff National Championship on the line, this will be considerably more important. It’s also another opportunity for Nick Saban and Urban Meyer to match wits.
Saban is 2-1 all time against Meyer. SI.com's Zac Ellis notes this is just the latest high-profile meeting between the two. Following a 32-13 Alabama rout in the 2009 SEC Championship, Meyer woke up with chest pains, an episode which led to his retirement (and subsequent un-retirement) from coaching. He told HBO's "Real Sports" this fall that he was "mentally broke." Meyer returned for the 2010 season (which included a 31-7 loss to Alabama) but resigned following the season, surfacing at Ohio State for the 2012 campaign.
Between them, Meyer and Saban have six national championships (four for Saban, two for Meyer), and a win here will put one coach in positon to claim another.
Alabama got a jolt of energy from Saban’s hiring of Lane Kiffin as the new offensive coordinator. With Kiffin in charge, the Tide have been more active throwing downfield, averaging 281 yards passing per game, No. 22 nationally. Junior Amari Cooper won the Biletnikoff Award as the nation’s top receiver, catching 115 passes for 1,656 yards and 14 touchdowns. Senior quarterback Blake Sims emerged as a quality leader, throwing 26 touchdowns against seven interceptions. And don’t forget about the punishing backfield duo of T.J. Yeldon and Derrick Henry, who have combined for 1,827 rushing yards and 20 touchdowns.
It’ll be interesting to see how Sims and Cooper attack Ohio State’s secondary, which has been shaky at times this season, and equally fascinating to see how Alabama freshman left tackle Cameron Robinson holds up against Ohio State defensive end Joey Bosa, one of the nation’s top pass-rushers.
The Buckeyes thrived despite the preseason loss of Heisman candidate Braxton Miller, as J.T. Barrett emerged as one of the nation’s top quarterbacks. No. 3 quarterback Cardale Jones was more than capable in the Big Ten title game against Wisconsin, but Alabama has had three weeks to game-plan for him, so it’ll be interesting to see how he matches wits with Kirby Smart’s stingy defense.
Alabama has a clear edge as the “home” team in the Louisiana Superdome, but Ohio State’s rabid fanbase will certainly have a presence. If Jones can move the Buckeyes offense, this will be a game well into the fourth quarter and a great treat to end New Year’s Day.
1. Rose Bowl
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Marcus Mariota vs. Jameis Winston. Oregon vs. Florida State in the Granddaddy of Them All. A College Football Playoff national semifinal as the sun sets in ultra-picturesque southern California. Need we say more?
Yes, the Rose Bowl is an exceptionally attractive matchup. We have Oregon’s quest for an elusive national championship vs. Florida State’s 29-game winning streak (which could continue in the same setting where the Seminoles won the final BCS National Championship 12 months ago).
Both teams can score points: Oregon averages 46.3 points per game, No. 3 nationally, while FSU averages 34.8 points per game, No. 28 nationally. With Mariota and Winston, you have the last two Heisman Trophy winners, too.
Following a dominant 2013, Florida State endured a high-wire act to go 13-0 this fall. The Seminoles won seven games by six points or less and used Winston’s second-half heroics to erase a trio of double-digit road deficits. Winston put up eye-popping numbers as a freshman (4,057 yards, 40 touchdowns, 10 interceptions), but his stats are down across the board this fall. Entering the Rose Bowl, he’s thrown for 3,559 yards with 24 touchdowns against 17 interceptions and his quarterback rating stands at 147.0, compared with 184.8 in 2013.
He has plenty of offensive options, too. Senior receiver Rashad Greene is one of the nation’s top wideouts, with 93 receptions for 1,306 yards and seven scores. Senior tight end Nick O’Leary is an excellent complement, with 47 receptions for 614 yards and six touchdowns.
And while FSU’s running game struggled at times this season, freshman Dalvin Cook is a budding star who emerged as a game-breaker in the season’s second half, with 905 yards and eight touchdowns.
One of the most intriguing storylines will be Winston vs. Oregon’s secondary minus star corner Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in a recent practice. Oregon’s offense is more than capable of winning a shootout with Mariota at the helm. He has thrown for 3,783 yards with 38 touchdowns against two interceptions and added 669 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. He’s equally comfortable in the pocket and throwing on the run. Freshman Royce Freeman (1,299 rushing yards, 16 touchdowns) leads a deep backfield.
One must-watch will involve how Oregon plans for FSU defensive end Mario Edwards Jr., one of the nation’s best pass-rushers. Senior left tackle Jake Fisher has done a great job protecting Mariota all season. When Fisher was sidelined for two games with a sprained knee ligament, Mariota was sacked 12 times, including five in the Ducks’ only loss, at home vs. Arizona.
Oregon is a nine-point favorite, but this will be a fascinating matchup of West Coast vs. East Coast styles and an interesting test of the Seminoles’ mettle. They’ve spent all season thriving as college football’s villain. How will they handle being an underdog, too? The combined storylines make this New Year’s Day’s most compelling television.
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