Louisville's Blueprint to Upset Dominant Kentucky in Rivalry Showdown

Rick Pitino needs to channel Rollie Massimino this week.

It's not March yet, so a win on Saturday for fourth-ranked Louisville wouldn't carry with it the historic relevance of Villanova over Georgetown, but doesn't it feel like for anyone to knock off top-ranked Kentucky, it will take a Villanova-in-1985 kind of game plan?

If anyone can pull that off, it's Pitino.

Similar to Massimino when he was game-planning for the Hoyas, Pitino has a great familiarity with the Wildcats. And not only are the Cardinals the most talented team left on the Cats' schedule, they're also the best equipped to knock them off.

Louisville had Kentucky on the ropes in the Sweet 16 last year—ahead by 13 at one point—and I went back and watched that game to figure out what Louisville did to have so much success. Both teams are different, but some of the most important elements are the same.

What the Cats did well last year, they do well this year—just to another degree. But if the Cards can check off three or four of the five keys below, they'll have a real shot.

1. Avoid Kentucky's Shot-Blockers

Kentucky is blocking an unreal 24 percent of its opponents' shots inside the arc, but Louisville is one of the best teams in the country at not getting swatted—only 4.9 percent of U of L's twos get sent back, according to kenpom.com (subscription required).

The Cats had only two blocks in the Sweet 16 win last year, and the Cardinals were smart in the way they attacked.

Louisville often put both of its bigs just above the elbows so that UK's shot-blockers would be pulled away from the rim.

Screen shot of CBS telecast

The Cards got several easy layups by running cutters right off the big at the elbow. 

Screen shot of CBS telecast

The other way that Louisville pulled shot-blockers out of position was by setting ball screens and getting favorable switches. Kentucky likes to switch ball screens and is doing that even more this year. The reason this works so well is that UK has size and quickness at every position.

Louisville's guards need to take advantage of these switches. Last year, the Cards had one of the best penetrators in college basketball in Russ Smith, and he posed a problem for UK's defense, especially when he got a favorable switch. 

With Dakari Johnson guarding him on the play below, Smith was able to get into the paint and draw help from Andrew Harrison, who had switched onto Montrezl Harrell. When Harrison lifted to help stop the ball, Smith dished off to Harrell for a dunk. 

Screen shot of CBS telecast

This dish and finish have to happen rapidly because UK's defenders are so quick to recover, but Harrell is as good as anyone in the country at catching and exploding at the rim. Terry Rozier, who is playing the Smith role in Louisville's offense this year, will need to create some penetration opportunities to get Harrell easy buckets.

That's how Harrell was able to score 15 points on 7-of-9 shooting in the Sweet 16.

2. Keep Kentucky off the Offensive Boards

The most frustrating aspect of trying to slow Kentucky's offense is that when your first-shot offense is good, that doesn't matter nearly half the time. The Cats are getting back 45.5 percent of their misses, which is second best in the country, per kenpom.com. 

The Cards have been solid on the defensive boards this year, but they play a lot of zone, and zones are susceptible to giving up second chances. Kentucky had 32 offensive rebounds in two games against Louisville last year. 

What the Cards need to try to do is block off the paint with their three bigs at the bottom of the zone. To do this, it's important to keep the ball out of the short corner. 

When the offense is able to get the ball from the wing into the short corner, Louisville uses the center man in the zone to then rotate to the short-corner guy. When the defense shifts like this, the defensive rebounders under the bucket get smaller and it creates lanes for UK's bigs to attack.

On the play below, Julius Randle was able to go from the top of the key straight to the bucket to put back James Young's miss. 

Screen shot of CBS telecast

The Cardinals aren't going to change how they play their zone, but they need to try to limit the short-corner looks and also be sound in their box-out assignments.

3. Force Turnovers

This is what Louisville does best; it's just not so easy when it comes to Kentucky. 

Pitino's press preys on poor ball-handlers and panic. The idea is to try to force the offense to dribble into traps or speed up. 

The luxury that Kentucky has is that Andrew Harrison is 6'6" and can see over the press. Even when the Cards baited him into a trap, he was able to pass over the top. 

Screen shot of CBS telecast

Kentucky's other point guard, 5'9" Tyler Ulis, doesn't have that luxury, but he's also extremely hard to press because he's such a good ball-handler and so quick that he's difficult to corral into a trap.

John Calipari was also smart in the way that he had his team attack the press last season. Once one of the Harrisons got the ball, everyone else got out of the way and gave them space to operate. 

The Cards just need to do what they do in terms of pressure and hope the hectic environment helps increase the Cats' tempo, in turn leading to erratic play. 

Does Louisville have to turn UK over to win the game? No. The Cards' half-court defense is also very stingy. But if they are able to create some live-ball turnovers, those could lead to easy buckets. 

And you want to try to minimize the possessions where you have to face UK's offense in a half-court setup.

4. Get Kentucky to Force Contested Threes

The one area where Kentucky has struggled this season is shooting the ball from beyond the arc. The Wildcats have made only 31.4 percent of their threes and have only two players shooting better than 40 percent from deep—Devin Booker (45.8 percent) and Ulis (52.6 percent). 

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The Cats have heated up from three over the last two games, shooting 46.3 percent, and the biggest reason for that is the type of looks they're getting. When Andrew Harrison or Ulis get into the teeth of the defense, they're able to pitch out to open shooters. 

If there's one guy Louisville will absolutely not be able to leave, it's Booker. He's made eight of his last nine treys and is playing with a ton of confidence. 

The key is containing the point guards. Andrew Harrison was UK's best player in the Sweet 16 win because of his ability to get into the paint and finish at the rim or dish off to open teammates. 

When the Cats were struggling in the early stages of that game, they were simply passing the ball around the perimeter against Louisville's zone and settling for threes. Once they started probing the seams, that's when they had success. So the Cards need to do whatever they can to keep Harrison and Ulis out of the paint. 

5. Keep Harrell out of Foul Trouble

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

This one is pretty obvious. The Wildcats can afford for pretty much anyone to get into foul trouble because of their depth. The Cardinals cannot afford to have Harrell on the bench for long because they have no one else like him.

Harrell fouled out of the game last March and had to sit during some key stretches because of foul trouble. When he was on the floor in that game, Louisville outscored UK by five points.

What's encouraging is Harrell has done a good job this season of avoiding fouls. He has had four fouls in two different games, but he has yet to foul out.

Final Thoughts

As I wrote last Saturday, the Wildcats have been at their best when they've faced legitimate competition and feel like they can make a statement. This matchup would certainly fall into that category.

Kentucky has played free and loose in those games, but this is UK's first true road game. The four freshmen have never played in a hostile environment like they'll see at Louisville. And the Wildcats have not faced a coach this year that knows them as well as Pitino.

So as monumental an effort as it will take on both ends of the floor to knock off this Kentucky team, if any team is capable, it's Louisville on its home court.

C.J. Moore covers college basketball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @CJMooreBR.