NFL Playoff Picture Week 17: Updated Standings and Predictions for Key Scenarios

Even though Week 16 settled most of the playoff spots still up for grabs, the final week of the NFL season has plenty at stake with multiple division titles, home-field advantage and one wild-card spot on the line.

The good news is that every game in Week 17 is a divisional showdown, so anything left to be decided is going to be contested by teams that know each other very well. There are also some teams trying to right the ship as they head into the postseason. 

The point being, even the games that appear to have little at stake are going to have a profound impact on what happens in two weeks. Here's an updated look at the current playoff standings and predictions for the biggest races still up for grabs. 

Week 17 AFC Scenarios

Broncos clinch first-round bye with:

1. Denver win vs. Oakland OR
2. Denver tie vs. Oakland plus Cincinnati loss or tie vs. Pittsburgh OR
3. Cincinnati loss OR
4. Cincinnati tie plus Indianapolis win vs. Tennessee

Bengals clinch AFC North with:

1. Cincinnati win vs. Pittsburgh

Bengals clinch first-round bye with:

1. Cincinnati win plus Denver loss or tie OR
2. Cincinnati tie plus losses by both Denver and Indianapolis

Steelers clinch AFC North with:

1. Pittsburgh win vs. Cincinnati

Chargers clinch playoff spot with:

1. San Diego win vs. Kansas City OR
2. San Diego tie plus Baltimore loss or tie vs. Cleveland

Ravens clinch playoff spot with:

1. Baltimore win plus San Diego loss or tie OR
2. Baltimore tie plus San Diego loss

Chiefs clinch playoff spot with:

1. Kansas City win plus loss by Baltimore plus loss or tie by Houston

Texans clinch playoff spot with:

1. Houston win plus losses by both Baltimore and San Diego

Week 17 NFC Scenarios

Cowboys clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC with:

1. Dallas win plus loss or tie by Arizona vs. San Francisco plus Detroit vs. Green Bay tie OR
2. Dallas win plus win by Seattle vs. St. Louis plus Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Cowboys clinch first-round bye with:

1. Dallas win plus loss or tie by both Seattle and Arizona OR
2. Dallas win plus Detroit vs. Green Bay tie OR
3. Seattle and Arizona both lose OR
4. Dallas and Seattle both tie plus Arizona loses or ties plus Detroit vs. Green Bay does not end in a tie

Lions clinch NFC North with:

1. Lions win or tie

Lions clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Lions win plus Seattle loss or tie plus Arizona loss or tie OR
2. Detroit tie plus losses by both Seattle and Arizona plus Dallas loses or ties

Lions clinch first-round bye with:

1. Detroit win OR
2. Detroit tie plus Dallas loss or tie OR
3. Detroit tie plus both Arizona and Seattle lose

Packers clinch NFC North and first-round bye with:

1. Green Bay win

Packers clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Green Bay win plus loss or tie by Seattle

Seahawks clinch NFC West with:

1. Seattle win OR
2. Seattle tie plus loss or tie by Arizona OR
3. Arizona loss

Seahawks clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Seattle win plus Detroit vs. Green Bay does not end in tie OR
2. Seattle win plus Dallas loss or tie OR
3. Seattle tie plus losses or ties by both Arizona and Dallas plus Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Seahawks clinch first-round bye with:

1. Seattle win OR
2. Seattle tie plus Arizona loss or tie plus Dallas loss OR
3. Seattle tie plus Arizona loss or tie plus Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Cardinals clinch NFC West with:

1. Arizona win plus Seattle loss or tie OR
2. Arizona tie plus Seattle loss

Cardinals clinch home-field advantage throughout NFC playoffs with:

1. Arizona win plus Seattle and Green Bay both lose or tie OR
2. Arizona tie plus Seattle loss plus Dallas loss or tie plus Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Cardinals clinch first-round bye with:

1. Arizona win plus Seattle loss or tie OR
2. Arizona tie plus Seattle loss plus Dallas loss or tie OR
3. Arizona tie plus Seattle loss plus Detroit vs. Green Bay tie

Panthers clinch NFC South with:

1. Carolina win or tie vs. Atlanta

Falcons clinch NFC South with:

1. Atlanta win

NFC Home-Field Advantage

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

The quest for the No. 1 seed in the NFC is down to the Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals. Detroit and Arizona have the most difficult path to getting the top spot, as both need to win in Week 17 and have two teams lose or tie. 

Dallas has a complex path to being the top seed, needing a win over Washington, an Arizona loss against the San Francisco 49ers and a tie between Detroit and Green Bay. One could argue that's more difficult than Detroit and Arizona's path because of the unlikelihood of ties. 

Green Bay is next on the totem pole, needing to defeat Detroit and have Seattle lose against the St. Louis Rams. While the latter scenario may not seem likely, remember the Rams did defeat the Seahawks in Week 7. That feels like a lifetime ago given the run Seattle is on, but it did happen. 

The Seahawks are in control of everything. All they have to do is win and hope the Lions-Packers game doesn't end in a tie to secure the No. 1 seed for the second consecutive season. 

All signs point to the Seahawks having the best record in the NFC again. They have won five straight games and eight of their last nine. During this winning streak, the Legion of Boom has returned in a big way, via ESPN Stats & Info:

Now, that defense is finishing up at home against Shaun Hill. The 34-year-old veteran hasn't been bad since being reinserted in the starting lineup, but he also hasn't gone up against Seattle's defense. 

As for the No. 2 seed, the Packers just have to win. They are playing at home against Detroit, where it's been a long time since the Lions have won, via ESPN Stats & Info:

At Lambeau Field in 2014, the Packers are 7-0 and have scored 288 points. For perspective, there are seven teams that haven't scored 288 points in 15 games this season. The Lions have been flirting with a loss the last two weeks against the Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. 

The season started with Seattle beating Green Bay all over CenturyLink Field. That game will end up being the difference between the No. 1 and 2 seed in the NFC, though both teams will secure a bye. 

NFC South Champion

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

The motto for the NFC South in 2014 should be, "Well, someone has to win it." That's not a sexy tagline for Fox to use marketing the Week 17 game between the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons, but it would provide more entertainment than the division had this year. 

Despite the bad vibes around the NFC South, the Panthers wouldn't be the worst option to make the postseason. They have been on the brink of elimination yet were able to win their last three games, including one with Derek Anderson at quarterback. 

The competition may not have been up to snuff with wins over the New Orleans Saints, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Cleveland Browns, but we give Seattle credit for its win streak despite the opposing quarterbacks being Drew Stanton, Colin Kaepernick (twice), Mark Sanchez and Ryan Lindley. 

December has been a fruitful month for the Panthers since arriving in the NFL, owning the highest winning percentage ever, via the NFL on ESPN:

The Falcons had one of their best defensive games of the year against Carolina in Week 11, allowing 391 yards of offense and 17 points. They also forced two turnovers on Cam Newton interceptions. 

Atlanta is in an awkward position, as Jason La Canfora of CBSSports.com is reporting head coach Mike Smith will be fired after the season:

"

Falcons owner Arthur Blank has informed multiple parties that he plans on moving on from head coach Mike Smith at the end of the season, sources said, and it would take a shocking playoff run to alter that scenario. Blank has also told some confidants that, for now, he expects to retain general manager Thomas Dimitroff, though it could be revisited through the hiring process.

"

It's not a surprising twist or unwarranted firing, as Smith has not developed much defensive talent and has mismanaged the clock on so many occasions, but it's still unusual for a team in the playoff mix. 

As unpredictable as the NFC South has been this season, the Panthers look like the most stable team in the division. They are peaking at the right time and deserve to represent this mediocre division in the playoffs, so they get a slight edge despite playing on the road. 

AFC Second Wild Card

The final playoff spot in the AFC is clear at the top but gets murky the more you pull at the thread. San Diego's win and the Baltimore Ravens' loss last weekend opened the door for the Chargers. All the lightning bolts must do to get in the playoffs is defeat the Kansas City Chiefs. 

The Ravens must defeat Cleveland or force a tie and have San Diego lose. Kansas City and the Houston Texans are still alive, though each needs to win and have two teams lose. 

Despite the Chargers only needing a win, they also have the most difficult task ahead of them. The Chiefs are 5-2 at home this season with wins over the New England Patriots and Seattle, though four losses in the last five weeks overall are concerning. 

It should come as no surprise that Kansas City's slide has coincided with Jamaal Charles touching the ball less, via Patrick Daugherty of NBC Sports:

The Chiefs beat San Diego in Week 7. Charles had 24 touches for 107 yards and one touchdown in the victory. Andy Reid isn't dumb or unaware that Charles is his best offensive player, so expect him to try establishing the run early. 

San Diego should have been eliminated last week, but San Francisco's inability to do anything right gave the Chargers hope. They are a beat-up team at the moment and are hobbling at the wrong time, so look for the Chiefs to pull off the upset. 

After laying an egg last week against Houston, one would assume playing Cleveland is like catching a break for the Ravens. Johnny Manziel is out, and Connor Shaw could be looking at his first NFL start. 

Baltimore is also playing at home, where it has a 5-2 record this season. That's a lot of good news for the Ravens, who should be able to get their running game going against Cleveland's 32nd-ranked run defense. Justin Forsett has 67 yards on 26 carries over the last two games. 

Combined with San Diego's loss, the Ravens can breathe a huge sigh of relief that their loss in Week 16 won't cost them a playoff berth.