NFL Playoffs 2014-15: Bracket Predictions, Odds for AFC and NFC Before Week 17

Although 10 of the 12 NFL playoff spots have already been clinched, only the New England Patriots are locked into their current seed.  Thus, a remarkable 11 out of 16 games on the Week 17 slate will have some sort of playoff implications, making for a dramatic buffet of football to end the regular season.

The all-division format of the final week makes predicting these outcomes extremely difficult, as the added element of familiarity often narrows whatever talent gap may exist between the two teams.  Thus, betting on the final NFL Sunday is likely a fool's errand.

Nevertheless, that does not mean bettors cannot make informed decisions and take advantage of some potential inefficiencies in the early betting lines.  Using the lines from Odds Shark, let's predict every Week 17 game and illustrate how the outcomes would affect the playoff picture, which can be found below.

Sunday, Dec. 28	Odds	Pick (Straight Up)
Carolina at Atlanta	Falcons -4.5	Atlanta
Cleveland at Baltimore	Ravens -10	Baltimore
Dallas at Washington	Cowboys -7	Dallas
Indianapolis at Tennessee	Colts -7.5	Indianapolis
Detroit at Green Bay	Packers -9	Green Bay
Jacksonville at Houston	Texans -10.5	Houston
San Diego at Kansas City	Chiefs -2.5	Kansas City
NY Jets at Miami	Dolphins -7	Miami
Chicago at Minnesota	Vikings -7	Minnesota
Buffalo at New England	Patriots -5	New England
Philadelphia at NY Giants	Giants -2.5	NY Giants
New Orleans at Tampa Bay	Saints -4	Tampa Bay
Oakland at Denver	Broncos -14.5	Denver
Arizona at San Francisco	49ers -7	San Francisco
St. Louis at Seattle	Seahawks -14	Seattle
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh	Steelers -3.5	Pittsburgh

Projected AFC Bracket

Seed	Team
1	New England Patriots (13-3)
2	Denver Broncos (12-4)
3	Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
4	Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
5	Cincinnati Bengals (10-5-1)
6	Baltimore Ravens (10-6)

Under this scenario, the AFC North stakes its claim as the best division in football by placing three teams in the postseason.  The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals are already in the postseason, but while the Baltimore Ravens currently sit on the outside, statistical odds from Football Outsiders and Advanced Football Analytics both have the Ravens as solid favorites for the No. 6 seed ahead of the incumbent San Diego Chargers. 

The perception on the Chargers' road trip to Arrowhead Stadium is fascinating, as San Diego remains an underdog to a Kansas City Chiefs squad that has lost four of its past five games.  Season-long measures like Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) and Simple Rating System (SRS) place the Chiefs well ahead of the Chargers, but it's hard to make that argument given Kansas City's recent slump, especially on defense:

The Chiefs did beat the Chargers in the first matchup, but it seems impetuous to label Sunday's game as anything more than a pick-em.  Because those playoff simulations use whole-season trends, it seems as though Baltimore is more of a 50-50 playoff proposition rather than a sure bet like those models suggest.

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Still, Baltimore caught a huge scheduling break with the Cleveland Browns, who have imploded during this four-game losing streak that would be six if not for a series of fortunate late-game breaks against the Atlanta Falcons.  A Ravens win would eliminate the Chiefs and Houston Texans, both of whom are clinging to faint postseason hopes.

Elsewhere, the rest of the conference is relatively settled.  New England and Indy are locked into the top and fourth seed, respectively, while the Broncos can earn the other first-round bye with a home victory over the Oakland Raiders.  The winner of the Bengals-Steelers clash will take the three seed, with the loser set for a date at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Projected NFC Bracket

Seed	Team
1	Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
2	Green Bay Packers (12-4)
3	Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
4	Atlanta Falcons (7-9)
5	Arizona Cardinals (11-5)
6	Detroit Lions (11-5)

With the exception of the NFC South title game, the entire NFC picture is locked in and much simpler than its AFC brethren.  Though no team has a seed locked up, only a Lions-Packers tie or a Seahawks upset at the hands of the St. Louis Rams would truly make things funky.

It's interesting that, before Week 16's Sunday night game, the two prohibitive NFC favorites were both wild cards.  FO's playoff simulations have either the Seahawks or Packers reaching Glendale in 69.5 percent of simulations, with Dallas a distant third wheel at 6.8 percent.  Along with the Broncos and Patriots in the AFC, the mainstream public has separated a clear "Big Four":

On the other end of the spectrum, the Panthers-Falcons pillow fight presents the most drama between teams with two of the 10 worst records in the league.  Even while the two squads have combined to go a respectable 5-3 over the past month, only one of those wins came against a team with a winning record (Atlanta over Arizona).

Indeed, the Falcons and Panthers rank 20th and 25th, respectively, in weighted DVOA, which measures a team's recent performances.  However, while both have remained mired in mediocrity, their likely Wild Card Round opponent, the Cardinals, currently rank 23rd in weighted DVOA behind their quarterback crisis.

With the opportunity to host an offense led by either Logan Thomas or Ryan Lindley in the first round, the NFC South champion has a very realistic chance to continue its season.  Atlanta or Carolina will be only the second division champion with a losing record since the 2002 realignment, but like the 2010 Seahawks, they may very well get the last laugh.