Complete 2014-15 ACC NCAA Basketball Primer Heading into Conference Play
For the moment there are two unbeaten teams in the ACC: Duke and Virginia. Throw in Louisville and Notre Dame as one-loss teams, and you can see how jammed the top of this conference will be over the following two months.
Some early struggles have put teams like North Carolina (8-3) and Syracuse (7-4) in the unfamiliar positions of looking up heading into conference play. Wake Forest (6-6) remains the only team not above .500.
The ACC always promises heated competition and possibly the best rivalry in all of sports.
Read on to see what’s happening in the days leading up to ACC conference play.
Nonconference Records
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Notre Dame: 13-1*
NC State: 10-4*
Virginia: 12-0
Duke: 11-0
Louisville: 12-1
Miami (Fla.): 10-3
North Carolina: 10-3
Pittsburgh: 10-3
Georgia Tech: 9-3
Clemson: 8-4
Syracuse: 8-4
Boston College: 7-4
Virginia Tech: 8-5
Florida State: 8-5**
Wake Forest: 7-6**
* Denotes ACC win
** Denotes ACC loss
Biggest Lessons Learned from Nonconference Play
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Virginia Can Play Some Defense
UVA’s defense has no true standout, nobody who jumps off the stat sheet with multiple steals and blocks per game. But look at what UVA has done.
It ranks second in points allowed with just 48.3 points per game. UVA can thank Harvard’s 27-point output for that. UVA also ranks seventh in rebounds per game with 28.7.
Head coach Tony Bennett preaches an aggressive, stingy team defense that has been the pivotal reason why his team hasn't lost and could be a dark horse to win the ACC this year.
The Cavs are a top-three defense, according to KenPom.com.
North Carolina’s Marcus Paige Needs Help
It’s been widely publicized that Paige’s shot has been on extended leave, but there is an explanation.
Rob Dauster of CollegeBasketballTalk wrote:
"Roy Williams doesn’t appear to trust the other two point guards on UNC’s roster — sophomore Nate Britt and freshman Joel Berry — with the reins offensively quite yet, meaning that Paige is, in a sense, being asked to play out of position. He’s a scorer at heart, not a facilitator. Kendall Marshall he is not.
"
Until Paige gets help from the other guards, the Tar Heels may find it hard to compete in this top-heavy conference.
Duke’s Jahlil Okafor Is That Good
The unbeaten Blue Devils have ridden the immensely gifted and green Okafor to a 10-0 start this year.
Okafor is in a two-horse race for Player of the Year with Wisconsin’s Frank Kaminsky—not ACC Player of the Year, but the one with John Wooden’s name on it.
Okafor is averaging 17.4 points and 8.9 rebounds per game while shooting 65 percent from the field.
Top Storylines to Watch
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Which Team Will Remain Undefeated the Longest?
Ask 10 people and it may be unanimous that Duke will be the one remaining unbeaten in the ACC. Don’t discount UVA.
Take Duke. David Teel of the Daily Press isn’t handing Duke a zero in the loss column: "Duke’s gauntlet starts at NC State on Jan. 11 and continues: home Miami, at Louisville, home Pitt, at St. John’s, at Notre Dame, at Virginia. Absent an earlier stumble, Louisville would be [Mike] Krzyzewski’s first attempt at career victory 1,000."
As is the case with football, defense travels well. Defense can be subjected to the mood of officials as well. Foul trouble is the great neutralizer of great defenses, and there are more than a few people out there who believe Duke receives far too much good cheer from the refs.
Speaking of Duke, though.
Coach K Goes for Win No. 1,000
Love him or hate him, 1,000 wins is a record and a fraternity that may be solely his own. Young coaches like Brad Stevens perhaps had a chance, but taking flight for the NBA is too tempting a mistress for many young guys to pass up.
As David Teel said in the above pull quote, Coach K could be up for that 1,000th career win against Rick Pitino and Louisville.
Krzyzewski will scale that mountain this season; it’s just a matter of when. And everyone from Tuscon to Chapel Hill should tip his or her cap…then get back to one’s own level of prescribed hatred.
Is Notre Dame Big Three for Real?
Often overlooked among the Tobacco Road elite sit the Fighting Irish way up in South Bend, Indiana. Notre Dame sits coolly at 13-1 led by three big-time, lesser-known players: Pat Connaughton, Jerian Grant and Demetrius Jackson.
All three average double digits in scoring, with Grant leading the way with 17.4 points per game. Jackson and Connaughton average 14.4 and 14.0 respectively.
Jackson said, per Tom Noie for The Elkhart Truth, “We’ve got guys who can make shots. That really makes the defense respect us and guard us. Those guys make it easy for me. They slide to open spaces for me. I slide to open spaces for them. We really go for it.”
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Rivalry Games and Can't-Miss Matchups
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Duke at North Carolina, March 7
No rivalry talk in the ACC can begin without addressing the blue-colored elephant in the room: Duke vs. Carolina.
The two play twice in a span of two weeks. This will only heighten the drama around this already heightened rivalry if Duke’s record remains unbeaten come March 7.
A Duke loss is always a UNC win—even better if Duke is undefeated and loses at the Dean Dome.
Duke at Syracuse, Feb. 14
No love on this Valentine's Day. Duke and Syracuse have carved out a nice bit of vitriol on the court since Syracuse’s entry into the ACC.
The two teams play twice in 14 days, first at Syracuse and then at Cameron Indoor.
Patrick Stevens of Syracuse.com noted:
"Not that anyone would blame the conference from a marketing standpoint from maximizing the number of Coach K-Jim Boeheim showdowns, especially considering how much attention those games generated last season. But there was definitely some tinkering done to make this happen.
"
Virginia at Virginia Tech, Feb. 28
There’s more on the line than just wins and losses. The Commonwealth Clash, a sports-wide, school-wide competition between these schools, means bragging rights across Old Dominion.
Both teams will be at polar opposite ends of the ACC standings with UVA toward the top and the Hokies toward the bottom. That doesn't mean these games won't be competitive, but to expect the Hokies to come out ahead of UVA this season is a stretch.
Freshmen to Watch
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Justin Jackson, UNC
Jackson was the co-MVP of the McDonald’s All-American Game, and in his first season with the Tar Heels he’s averaging 9.6 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game.
That latter number is huge. If Jackson’s assists creep up that will free up Marcus Paige to be a dominant scorer for the Heels.
Bleacher Report’s Doug Brodess wrote, “Bottom line: The combination of Jackson's talent and his tenacious resolve is rare.”
Duke’s Diaper Dandies
Okafor and Tyus Jones stand atop the list of freshmen to watch. Okafor is on a summit unto himself since he’s in the running for Player of the Year.
Jones would be the best player on many teams in the ACC, but teaming up with Okafor will squash any chance he has at postseason accolades.
Jones has been an electric presence on the court who pairs perfectly with Okafor’s Tim Duncanian touch in the low block.
Chinanu Onuaku, Louisville
Onuaku is a surprise starter for the Cardinals. He’s 6’10” and 230 pounds. He’s one of the best answers to Duke’s Okafor in the paint.
Onuaku averages just over four points per game and just under six rebounds per game. He also adds 2.2 blocks per game.
Louisville head coach Rick Pitino told Jeff Greer of The Courier-Journal before the season, “His goal is to be as good as (former Louisville center Gorgui Dieng) someday, and he always talks about that.”
Top ACC Player of the Year Candidates
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Jahlil Okafor, Duke
You can’t overlook Okafor as the top candidate to win this coveted award. No. 15 is on John R. Wooden Award watch; that’s how much this young man has lived up to the billing.
“My expectations for myself are higher than the expectations anybody else could put on me," Okafor told CBSSports.com’s Gary Parrish. "So however good people say I'm going to be this year, my plan is to be even better. And I definitely feel like I'm ready to do it."
That was a conversation about the National Player of the Year. This award is his to lose.
Marcus Paige, UNC
Paige still has a chance to salvage his season. He’s been performing below his level of expectation, but much of that comes from trying to run the offense and be its prominent scorer.
A dominant run through the ACC and some upset wins for the Tar Heels could put Paige in the conversation, but things need to turn around and quickly for a guard shooting 36 percent from the field.
Justin Anderson, UVA
When Anderson isn’t petitioning the FAA for flight patterns, he’s scoring, rebounding and shooting the lights out in Charlottesville.
Anderson is averaging 15 points, 4.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game for the unbeaten Cavs.
Much of the preseason attention was on his teammate Malcolm Brogdon, but Anderson is stealing the show and could surprise people throughout ACC play.
Predicting the 2014-15 ACC Awards
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Freshman of the Year: Jahlil Okafor, Duke
This is about as easy as it comes. So long as Okafor doesn't get injured, the FOY award is more certain than his .685 field-goal percentage.
Coach of the Year: Tony Bennett, UVA
CBSSports.com writers almost unanimously put UVA in fourth place in the ACC behind Duke, UNC and Louisville.
Right now, Bennett has the Cavs undefeated with one of the best defenses in all of college basketball.
Bennett should win Coach of the Year for no other reason than his deft application of Rocky III. Bennett told CBSSports.com’s Gary Parrish:
"OK. So Apollo trains Rocky in that movie, and he keeps telling Rocky that he wants a favor at the end. So they end up in this little gym at the end, and Apollo wants a rematch because he couldn't live with [the loss to Rocky at the end of the previous film]. And then Apollo says to Rocky, he says, ‘You fight great…but I’m a great fighter.’ And it's a little like that for us. We don't look at ourselves as this great team. We look at ourselves as a team that, when things are right, we can play at an excellent level.
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Player of the Year: Jahlil Okafor, Duke
Okafor certainly has more company for this category with UVA's Brogdon and Anderson as well as UNC's Paige and Louisville's Montrezl Harrell.
Still, Okafor is a unique kind of lottery-pick talent and will get most/all of the attention for ACC Player of the Year.
ACC Favorite and Dark Horse
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The Favorite: Duke
The ACC favorite was and is the Duke Blue Devils. Coach K has the country’s best or second-best player in Okafor. He has a set of electric guards in Jones and Quinn Cook.
Okafor addresses an inside presence that was lacking from last year’s team.
Duke isn’t so dominant that it should roll through the conference the way Kentucky will roll through the SEC, but it should handle all threats shot at its direction.
The Dark Horse: Virginia
The No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers are a team with such sound defense that they could beat anyone and at any time.
Bennett has them in position to do some damage this year. Most people thought UVA would be a decent team in the middle of the conference, but to be ranked third behind only Kentucky and Duke means this team could threaten the ACC elite.
CBSSports.com’s Gary Parrish wrote: “Virginia is more of a developed winner than a naturally gifted champion, more Rocky than Apollo. The Cavaliers might not be a great team in the traditional sense. But they have the ability to play great. And they do way more often than not."
If Duke has an off night or Okafor gets into foul trouble, Virginia could swipe a game or two.
Who Makes the Tournament
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Shoo-Ins: Duke, Louisville, Virginia, North Carolina, Notre Dame, Syracuse
Louisville’s aggressive play and Virginia’s smothering defense make them shoo-ins.
Duke’s tremendous and precocious talent makes puts them in the tournament timeshare, and Roy Williams will have UNC a high seed come March.
Sure, Virginia was a dark-horse No. 1 in the ACC, but Notre Dame could be dark-horse No. 2.
Jim Boeheim will have the Orange in the Big Dance.
Hopefuls: Pittsburgh, Miami, Georgia Tech, Florida State
Miami sits at 10-3 heading into conference play, better than Syracuse and tied with North Carolina. The ’Canes still need to prove they belong in the upper tier of the ACC, but they can remain hopeful of a berth in the tournament.
As for the 8-5 Seminoles, only two teams have more ACC wins over the last nine seasons: Duke and Carolina. That’s hopeful.
Long shots: Clemson, Boston College, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, NC State
This is an incredibly competitive conference most years, and this year seems no different. With a desperate UNC team and Notre Dame and Virginia playing so well, that makes these teams the punching bags of the ACC.
Predicting the 2014-15 ACC Standings
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1. Duke
2. Virginia
3. Louisville
4. North Carolina
5. Notre Dame
6. Syracuse
7. NC State
8. Pittsburgh
9. Florida State
10. Miami
11. Georgia Tech
12. Clemson
13. Virginia Tech
14. Wake Forest
15. Boston College
All stats, unless otherwise noted, came from ESPN.com.
I hang out on Twitter @BrendanOMeara. Say hello.
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